Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season.  The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.

It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering!  As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...

FINAL FOUR:

#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring.  Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters.  And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season.  As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington.  However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...

Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass.  The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck.  The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends.  This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball.   Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight.  Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.

The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis.  Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits.  Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.

The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.

#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason.  They are absolutely loaded.  Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012.  The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.

When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture.  However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era.  Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was.  I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well.  This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton.  And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels??  Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.

This sounds like we're down on the Heels.  Not true.  In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious.  And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons.  UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes.  He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent." 

However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.

#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina?  Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils.  Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside.  But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller.  North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard.  Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.

And perimeter shooting?  Not an issue for the Dukies.  Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation.  Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down.  Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.

In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3.  Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly.  His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon.  His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!).  This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound.  Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.

The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game.  So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on.  But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface.  So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...

#4 Ohio State -  I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department.  However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.

And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta.  The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus.  Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).

6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.

I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky.  However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.

Elite Eight:

We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...

#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs.  Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.

#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.

#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad.  Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.

#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse.  Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.

Sweet and Lurking:

#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East?  The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.

#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??

#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive.  I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.

#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly.  I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.

#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker.  Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result.  Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.

#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country.  Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?

#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know.  They lost at home to Cleveland State.  It was a bad loss.  However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country.  The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...

#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season.  The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College.  Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.

Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift

Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true.  There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."

Take Duke for example.  The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list.  Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested.  Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.

For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.

In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory.  Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form.  Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade.   If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations.  Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons.   Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.

For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:

10.  UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll.  Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid.  It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one.  With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.

9.  The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State.  Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule.  Ditto for Arkansas.  It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.

8.  The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans.  After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe. 

Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...

7.  The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine.   As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"

Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast.  What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four.  UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly.  Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0.  The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.

Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.

Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.

6.  Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams  being led by some simply stunning freshman.  Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies.  If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY.  Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.

Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team

5.  Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes.  To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings.  Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite.  Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.

4.  Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys."  This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga.  Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference.  They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments.  Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games.  At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.

3.  Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year.  San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke.  Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four. 

BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road.  The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way. 

Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season.  (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).

2.  The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops.  Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up.  Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue.  Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance). 

Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play.  Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games.  For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.

1.  Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?

Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table.  I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game.  Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.

After the injury?  I'm still not backing off.  Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago.  With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense.  Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.

I love this team and how it is constructed.  The most interesting thing about Duke?  They won the title last year.  This year's team is better.  Next year?  The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)

Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming.  Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits.  I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game.  Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Jared Sullinger is a BEAST

Ohio State freshman Jared Sullinger poured in 40 points to help the Buckeyes remain unbeaten on the strength of a 34-14 run to close the game and quell the upset bid from IUPUI.  Sullinger added 13 boards but perhaps the most impressive facet of his performance of the year was that he racked up an Ohio state freshman record 40 points on just 17 shot attempts.

Sullinger was simply too much for the Jaguars to handle, battering the smaller front line into foul after foul.  he made the most of his free throw visits, connecting on 16 of 23 attempts.

Sullinger moves to the top spot of the March Maniacs freshman power poll, passing the unfortunatly and somewhat mysteriously) injured Duke point guard Kyrie Irving.

Moving into the second slot is do-everything Kentucky power forward, empahsis on the word "power", Terrance Jones.  Jones exploited Notre Dame's lack of atleticism, pouring in 27 points and 13 boards in the Wildcats impressive win over the Irish.  Jones is one of only three players in the nation averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.

Sullinger not only is the top frosh, but is at the top of our POY ballot as well.

The rest of the rankings are as follows:

1.  Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
2.  Terrance Jones (Kentucky)
3.  Kyrie Irving (Duke)
4.  Tobias Harris (Tennessee)
5.  Brandon Knight (Kentucky)

Good Day to Wear Orange

It's a good day to wear orange for sure, particularly if the orange is the trim on the white jerseys.

Tennessee and Oklahoma State secured their at-large bids today by knocking off the Top 2 teams in the country, respectively.  A few things showed through in the games.  One, Kentucky was impressive in the comeback, even though they lost.  Fortunately there are no road games in the NCAA Tourney, and seeing how Kentucky fans travel like mad it will never feel like a road game come March.  The second thing is that James Anderson needs to be on the list with Wall, Turner, Wesley Johnson and Scottie Reynolds for National Player of the Year.  I'm not saying he should win it, but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation.

The pair of losses raises an interesting question.  With #1 and #2 losing, suppose Purdue wins tomorrow at home against Michigan State.  Do voters have the cajones to vote a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue squad #1 in the country??  I think they don't. 

If Syaracuse gets the win over a tough Villanova team tonight at the Carrier Dome, expect the 'Cuse to be the nation's top ranked team on Monday.

If ALL FOUR lose, I really have no clue what voters will do.  Don't be surprised if the polls remain largely the same at the top, with only Nova and K-State creeping up...

As we say often, the best thing about polls is that strippers use them.  In college hoops, we settle it on the court, but the next few weeks are going to get crazyin terms of jostling for seeds.

A Big Test for the Wildcats

 A little over a month ago I wrote of two consecutive games that could potentially derail the Wildcat's run at greatness.  Of course the Devean Downey train derailed it several weeks ago, but alas, tonight arrives the first of those two road tests when UK heads to Mississippi State.

Two big questions for tonight's game:

1.  Will Mississippi State play with the urgency that tonight's game truly implies.  The Bulldogs are clearly on the outside of the bubble looking in.  A win over Kentucky goes a LONG way to getting them back in the discussion.  A loss tonight?  The situation is honestly pretty stark in Starkville.

2.  How will DeMarcus Cousins react to playing against a premier perimeter defender?  Jarvis Varnado is one of the nation's leading shot blockers.  He is big and physical.  Cousins hasn't always responded very maturely or positively in these situations.  How he handles his emotions tonight will determine the Wildcat's fate.

It is a sneaky gem tonight in the SEC and a great look at how well the Wildcats are preparing for March.  Expect Mississippi State to play very physical, to use their fouls inside and to zone the Wildcats all game long.  If Kentucky can knock down shots and learn how to move the ball against a zone, they are a national title contender.  Until they figure it out, I truly see them a clear notch behind Syracuse and Kansas, and have trouble picking them over squads like Villanova, Purdue, Duke and Kansas State.

Maniac's Pick:  Mississippi State is likely to lead early, and perhaps even late, but give me the Wildcats winning and covering in a true statement win for March,

Kentucky -2.5

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Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010

The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.

For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.

Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.

2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.

Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.

3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.

This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.

4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.

Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)

6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.

7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.

8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.

10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.

11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.

12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.

13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)

14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.

The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.

So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.

15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.

16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.

This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.

This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.

Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.

It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.

Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)

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