Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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Cards Show Heart in Thrillilng Comeback

Rick Pitino has won hundreds of games in his career.

I'm not sure he's had many more thrilling than today's miracle home win over Marquette.  Louisville trailed by 17 with less than five minutes to play, when all of a sudden Marquette went cold, Preston Knowles caught fire, and the crowd became electric.

Knowles had a lot to celebrate in the final 4:53

The Cards finished the game on a 26-8 run over the final five minutes, punctuated with the go-ahead layup with four seconds to play, when Preston Knowles found Kyle Kuric under the bucket for the uncontested score.

Marquette had a shot at the buzzer, but when Jimmy Butler's shot caught front iron, the Cardinals miracle comeback was complete.

Not only is it a thrilling win, it is likely an important one as well.  Marquette and Louisville, along with Cincinnati, St. Johns and possibly Notre Dame, could all find themselves in a bottle neck in the middle of the BEast standings, with only one or two likely to get the tourney nod.  The Cards snatched a valuable chip at the last possible moment today.  Time will tell if it was the one they needed to get into the Dance.
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Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Big East Bubble Talk

Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.

Pitt (18-6, 7-4):  It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list.  They are not on the bubble.  But they could be soon.

I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet.  Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana.  So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates.  Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame.  It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games.  IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble.  The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers.  I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%

Louisville (15-9, 6-5):  Can you say BRUTAL?  That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's.  They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home).  Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).

Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn.  The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall.  The bad news?  What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games?  Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
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Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%

Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6):  Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount.  Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.

On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%

Marquette (15-8, 6-5):  I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board.  They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category.  That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance.  I think they have a good shot.  They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall.  None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely.  I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%


South Florida (15-8, 5-6):  Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn??  It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot.  Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four.  They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn.  They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul.  Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference.  They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%

In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.  This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list.  No joke.

Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6):  What happened here?  The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.

Now?  It looks really, really bad.  The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown.  Ouch.  That looks like three losses to me.  That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall.  Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.

It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%

Connecticut (14-10, 4-7):  Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night.  Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating.  They look at W's and L's.  And the Huskies have a lot of L's.  Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.

As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot.  Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play.  But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.

Here's the final seven:  Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU  -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%

The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks.  I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end.  Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses).  Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame.  Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)

Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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Weekend Review - Big East Jan 10th

The nation's most exciting conference of 2008-2009 is living up to the advance billing once again in 2010.  Here is a quick rundown of the weekend that was and the big games coming up this week.

Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.  Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws.  In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp.  His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas.  If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...

The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame.  Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win.  Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill.  If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year.  His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.

Seton Hall notched a big win as well.  The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney.  Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.

Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova.  The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3.  The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league.  As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine. 

Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly).  Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova. 

Team UP:  Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati

Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)

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Rating Saturday's Top Games

The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.

That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.

FIVE STARS:

Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)

Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.

FOUR STARS:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.

Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.

BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.

UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.

Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...

Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.

THREE STARS:

Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores

St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.

Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head

Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets

Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking

Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.

Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.

Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.

Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.

Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.

West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.

Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.

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A Tough 0-2 Marq

The Marquette Warriors might look back on this week and cringe on Selection Sunday. Because, unfortunately, close doesn't count much with pollsters. Three days after losing in Morgantown on DeShaun Butler's buzzer beater, the Warriors dropped another game in heartbreaking fashion, this time at home to Villanova.

Scottie Reynolds penetrated, drew contact and hit a leaner in the lane with 16 seconds to go to finally give Villanova the lead late. Marquette missed from point-blank range with three seconds to go and dropped to 0-2 in the Big East. Not only are they winless in conference, they missed out on two valuable chances to add a marquee win (both are currently ranked in the Top 10) on their resume. In a conference as fiesty and deep as the Big East, these two games could likely be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT.

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The Belly of the BEast

The Maniac is finally able to sit after gorging on obscene amounts of Christmas Feastings. It got me thinking about who might be feasting and who might be looking at a famine in the bountiful upcoming Big East buffet.

* (Maniac's Note: Each team plays all 15 teams once, and three random teams twice. Ergo, schedule really really matters when the difference is one or two wins)

The Middle of the BEast:
Nearly everyone from the Big East enters conference play at 9-1, 10-1, 11-2, or 8-3 at worst. Assuming Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and UConn as tourney locks, that leaves three to an unlikely five bids likely up for grabs. So who will separate themselves from the pack and battle for bids five through eight (and possibly nine) that the conference will receive?

Cincinnati - The Cats looked great early, but have slipped the last few weeks. At 8-3, they will need to go 10-8 in conference to feel safe, but do benefit from drawing Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown and West Virginia only once. The only of the sure-fire tourney teams they get twice is UConn. If they handle the games they should win, the Cats will be in good shape in March.

Georgetown - The obvious favorite, but the Hoyas looked to be at exactly the same spot last year. The home loss to Old Dominion makes me at least aware that the Hoyas as not in lock status yet. Their mid-conference tussle with Duke is an aggressive, yet daring chance to steal a win that tips the scales in their favor should they find themselves muddled in a big group with eight to ten conference wins.

Marquette - The Eagles were the early darling after wins over Xavier and Michigan. All of a sudden, neither of those wins are over a ranked team (or tourney lock) and the losses to Florida State, Wisconsin and NC State represent the only other quality opponents en route to their 8-3 start. The Eagles will have some work to do in conference and feel like a team we will be talking about needing a win or two in the conference tourney to feel safely in the field of 65.

Notre Dame - Doesn't it feel like Luke Harangody has been here forever? The senior All-American might be feeling like he is living his career in reverse, Benjamin Snooze Button style. Each year, instead of growing up, it feels like the Irish regress. The Irish are 11-2, and like all league team, are only a 10-8 conference record away from the Big Dance. After home losses to Loyola Marymount and missing an opportunity for a quality win against Northwestern, the resume is shockingly blank. Their three best wins are probably UCLA, Long Beach State and UCF. That leaves a lot of work to be done in conference, and not much preparation for the task ahead. Looks like the "duck" of the Irish might do them in this season.

St John's - It is easy to be a little down on the Johnnies after their 71-66 loss to Cornell, but as our faithful readers already know, Cornell is really good. I'm calling my shot three months early and tagging them the 13 seed to be afraid of. Their only other loss is a respectable 9-pointer to Duke. They have wins over Temple and Siena. Only the Owls give them a chip to play outside of conference wins they amass. It is going to take 10-8, and I'm not sure they are quite good enough to get that many wins, but 8 or 9 and a bubble perch is not out of the question. The scheduling Gods have done them a favor, as they play each of the top five teams in conference (the four locks and G'Town) only once each. They get L'ville, Pitt and DePaul twice.

Louisville - What to make of Pitino and the Cards? They are the toughest team to get a read on. The were blasted by Charlotte and Western Carolina at home. They have beaten the hell out of Oral Roberts and Western Kentucky who have some good wins on their resumes. The Jan 2nd game against Kentucky provides an opportunity to gain some desperatly needed confidence and momentum. Assuming they do not pull the upset, the Cards have left themselves a lot of work to do in conference play. The Big East is a tough place to do that. They get Syracuse and UConn twice, and go to Morgantown in their lone shot at the Mountaineers.

Seton Hall - The Pirates were the trendy pick preseason to make the "leap" into the top half of the BEast. They might, but so far The Maniac just doesn't see it. Their best wins are Cornell and UMass. They really haven't played the schedule to prepare them for what is coming. I think everyone might get a preview of that tomorrow when they play WVU. They play WVU twice, but go to 'Nova, to G'town and to UConn in their lone meetings. That is a recipe for losses and a lack of quality wins over ranked opponents. It has the makings of a Providence 2008-2009 like resume for the Pirates. However, the one saving grace might be the final four conference games are all very winnable. That late momentum surge could pop the bubble in the Pirates favor.

Pitt - Was it really ten months ago the Panthers were ranked #1 in the nation?!? It feels like a lot longer, not just for me, but also for Jamie Dixon. The young Panthers have looked good at times, beating Wichita State and playing a good first half against Texas, but their resume is really thin. A double-digit loss to Indiana is a sub-RPI 100 loss and it is hard to imagine them picking up more than 7-8 wins in conference, though home&home's with St Johns and Seton Hall might give them a chance to earn a bid in a mano y mano y mano slugfest.

South Florida - An easy team to dismiss into the bottom four (with Rutgers, Providence and DePaul) if you haven't watched them play, but the Bulls are a much improved, and talent laden squad. They have an NBA-caliber talent in Dominque Jones, and are sitting at 10-2. They have wins over San Diego and Virginia and lost by just three to South Carolina and Central Michigan. They will have do some real work in conference, but the Bulls are no longer the gimme they might have been in past years. They get St. Johns and Notre Dame twice, so if the Bulls want it there is a chance to go take it.

Maniac's Crystal Ball:
IN: Georgetown, Cincinnati
BUBBLE IN: Louisville (Seton Hall, St. John's or Notre Dame) - IF eight or nine, depends a lot on conference tourneys and the Pac-10's sepatation in league play
BUBBLE OUT: South Florida, Marquette

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A Little Thanksgiving Spice

The Old Spice Classic kicks off tomorrow at noon in Orlando, Florida in what has become one of the premier "pre-season" tourneys. This year's field may not have the top flight headliner, but it does have a field full of teams with March aspirations.

The top of the class is probably Michigan which returns do-everything star Manny Harris and three starters to John Beilein's squad. Harris and Ohio State's Evan Turner will be one of the best head to head match-ups come March, and isn't nearly as one-sided as some might make it out to be. Harris is that good. Behind him, Michigan has to be the favorite.

Manny Harris is a close second-best player in the Big Ten

But the road won't be easy, starting in the Noon tip-off against always pesky Creighton. The Jays opened with a loss to fellow mid-major darling Dayton but have aspirations of begining a new NCAA Tourney streak this year. An "upset" win over Michigan would be a nice feather in their cap.

The second game features the undervalued Xavier Musketeers against the rebuilding Marquette Warriors. Gone is the backcourt trio that led Marquette for a Top Ten ranking before Dominc James' injury. Lazarus Haywood returns to try and steady the ship. X has been good in the early going, with Jordan Crawford fitting in nicely to an experienced Musketeers squad that will look to him to carry much of the scoring load from the perimeter. They will get their first true test in the 2PM tip.

The evening features a matchup of two squads trying to rebound from dissapointment in 2008-2009 when Alabama meets Baylor. Both figure to be in the lower half of their respective leagues. This game might give a nice glimpse into the relative depths of the SEC and Big 12 respectively. Neither have played a top-tier team yet in 09 (though that didn't stop the Tide from dropping a game to Cornell...)

The nightcap features a Florida State squad fresh off a humiliating shellacking by in-state rival Florida, against the Iona Gaels. A week ago, Florida State figured to be the favorite (or co-favorite along with Michigan). Now? The 'Noles might be grateful for a relatively soft draw.
Maniac's Picks: Michigan, Xavier, Florida State and Baylor. Give me the Noles and the Muskies in what should have been a rematch of last year's NCAA Rd 2 (except for Bo Ryan's Badgers! Intentionally forced reference for the benefit of my Nole-fan readers!)

Yes. I honestly like the Musketeers cutting down the nets in Orlando, but admit Michigan has the most overall talent in the field.

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A Trip Out West

To the West...

Best First Round Game: Cal v. Maryland - Most of the public in the big pools have sided with Maryland as they are probably more familiar to the palette. Grevies Vasquez is an NBA caliber guard whose emotional and fiery play can lift the Terps over great opponents like UNC. This is also a team that lost by 43 to Duke just a few months ago.

Cal plays a frenetic pace and is one of the better teams to not have appeared on ESPN this year. Therefore very few people know much about them. Enjoy the game, it should be a good one, and don't be surprised if you know a lot more about the Pac-10 on Monday than you do today.

Best Player: Jerel McNeal has been stellar all season long for the Marquette Eagles, yet all the recent focus has been on the loss of backcourt mate Dominic James. In order for Marquette to survive and advance, McNeal is going to have to carry a larger portion of the scoring load. He is more than capable.

Most important player(s): The Memphis Tigers will once again go as far as their star freshman point guard can carry them. Last year, Derrick Rose took them 2 minutes from a championship. In order for that same result (or better) Tyreke Evans is going to have do likewise.

Purdue is a different team when Robbie Hummel is healthy, and he finally appears to be 100% just in time for the tourney. However, the true key to the Boilermakers success will be the play of unheralded sophomore big man JuJuan Johnson. In a bracket that could see matchups with Washington's John Brockman and UConn's Hasheem Thabeet, Johnson will need to play big to keep the Boilers advancing.

Worst Seeding: No complaints out West, everything is just about right. Utah State might be a slot high at #11, Washington might be one high at #4, I'd personally have flipped they and Purdue, but after round one it really matters little. All in all, a really fairly seeded bracket.

Toughest Break: Purdue's reward for winning the Big Ten tourney was a trip to Portland, Oregon. This sets up a de facto road game in Rd 2 if Washington advances.

Possible 2nd Round Gem: Washington and Purdue will be a very interesting game, but the hidden gem is if Maryland sneaks past Cal. The Terps provide a difficult matchup, as they shoot the ball well enough from the outside to score enough points, Vasquez, when playing well (think "Devendorf" level of eraticism) can control the tempo and tenor of the game, and Maryland is not going tobe dramatically "out-athleted" by the Tigers like many other teams in the draw. It will be a very competitive game.

Easiest to Root For: Marquette was cruising towards a 3 or 4 seed until the untimely season-ending injury to four-year starter Dominic James. It is pretty easy to get on the Marquette bandwagon

Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:

Purdue upsetting UConn in the Sweet 16, Memphis over Marquette

Purdue utilizing their poise and patience to withstand the Memphis onslaught and advance as a the surprising Final Four entrant

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Wednesday's Highlights

Oklahoma looks to secure a share of the Big 12 title, while Missouri looks to salvage some respect after the savage beating laid on them by Sherron Collins, Cole Alderich and the Jayhawks. For Mizzou a good showing keeps them on the 4-line on Selection Sunday; a loss puts them into a big jumbled mess with 20 other teams bouncing between the 4 & 7 slots

Maniac's Pick: Oklahoma and Blake Griffin handle their business tonight.

West Virginia is projected as a #6 in most major website brackets; a win tonight over 0-16 DePaul should be a gimme... however, as the Mountaineers wrap up with a visit from Louisville, they better grab the win tonight to ensure a winning Big East record (and NCAA tourney bid).

Maniac's Pick: WVU locks up their tourney spot tonight, and the Blue Demons move inches from being the BEast's first winless team at season's end.

Marquette travels to Pitt looking to avoid their third consecutive loss. For the record, don't blame their woes on the loss of Dominic James. This losing streak has been coming all season, as the Maniac warned you. Assuming Pitt holds their home court tonight, Marquette would have to win the finale Saturday against Syracuse to avoid free-falling into the NCAA tournament (and dropping out of the Top 4 seed lines.)

Maniac's Pick: Pitt by 9

Purdue is playing for seeding at this point. Michigan State wrapped up the regular season conference crown squeeking past Indiana last night in Assembly Hall. Northwestern is NIT-bound, but has been a tricky opponent all season long. The Wildcats have already beaten Florida State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio State. It is still a crazy long shot, but an upset over Purdue and completing the season sweep over Ohio State Saturday leaves the door cracked for a miracle run in the Big Ten tourney and the FIRST EVER bid for Northwestern. EVER.

Maniac's Pick: Sorry Wildcats, a healthy Hummel and the Boilers handle their business at home, Purdue by 7.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

Wisconsin at Minnesota is a virtual elimination game, but not for the team you would have thought it was four weeks ago. The Badgers have put their six-game losing streak behind them and appear to be pretty safely in the Big Dance. Tubby's Badgers have a valuable chip in the non-conference win over L'Ville, but really need a win tonight to feel secure. A loss tonight would drop them to 8-9 in Big Ten, and 4-8 in their last 12 games.

Maniac's Pick: Tubby rallies the troops and saves a slipping season with a big home win. Minnesota by 5.

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Updating Your Portfolio - Pt 1

Just three weeks remain in the regular season, including conference tournaments and the 34 at large teams are starting to come a little more in focus.

Here is a stock report on the AP Top 25 poll:

#1 UConn - Hold. It remains to be seen how dire the impact of Dyson is to the Huskies. The Pitt loss was simply that; a loss to a very good Pitt team in a very hyped TV contest. Most of the nation wasn't tuning in when Villanova handled the Pathers easily a few weeks ago, ergo no "the sky is falling" talk had to be endured. Both Pitt and UConn are "Holds" as they are clearly two of the five best teams in the country.

#2 Oklahoma -BUY. This team is peaking and growing at the right time. Blake Griffin is the National POY, but the Sooners have more than that going for them. Wille Warren is the most complete freshman in the country right now and runs the team superbly. Austin Johnson has been filling it up and Taylor Griffin is a solid role player. They have flown pretty under the radar for a team that is about to become the #1 team in the nation on Monday, but make no mistake, the Sooners are legit.

#3 North Carolina - BUY. Still the best team in the country when they come to play. If you are scoring at home, they have done just that for 10 straight games now in the nation's deepest and most balanced conference.

#4 Pitt - HOLD. See above. Tons of talent, tons of toughness, but also tons of other years we have written the exact same thing about Pitt. Not knocking this team, it's just...show me in March...

#5 Memphis - SELL. Nothing like an abysmal schedule to shine over a few weaknesses. Yes, you still have to win the games on your schedule, but I am not buying that a Memphis team that was unranked four weeks ago is suddenly the 5th best team in the nation after fatteneing up on the C-USA. The Gonzaga win was an impressive one, but again, still not sure this is the 5th best team in the country.

#6 Michigan State - HOLD. Purdue handed them their can last night, and exposed some of the Spartans shooting weaknesses. That said, they have depth, quickness and toughness...and Coach Izzo. I liked them a little more in the underdog role, but still think this team could make some noise in March.

#7 Louisville - BUY. The Cards might have had the strangest week in the country; losing by 35 to Notre Dame, then winning by 40+ over DePaul. Let's erase that ND game, or at least file it as evidence that the Cards are capable of lapses. Then again, with the exception of Oklahoma, everyone else has proven the same thing this season. At the end of the day, gimme the talent, athleticism and Pitino in March.

#8. Wake Forest - SELL. Has anyone else noticed the Deacons are only 6-4 in conference? Their lone non-conference wins of note are BYU and Baylor. This is a good ball club, not a great one. I think getting much further than the first weekend is a stretch for this year's squad (though easily Top 5 pre-season 2010 if everyone stays.)

#9. Duke - BUY. While everyone else is selling the Blue Devils like crazy, the Maniac continues to hold. The Clemson loss was disconcerting for sure, but nearly every team takes one or two of those through the course of the season. With the emergence of Henderson this team has offensive options like very few others. If they can find someway to steady the PG play and get Singler some help on the boards, they can still make a Final Four run.

#10. Marquette - SELL. The Maniac has been warning you about the Eagles final five games for about two months now. Starting this week, we will find out if he was right. They are a sure fire 2-3 seed right now, don't be surprised if it is a 5-6 in three weeks...

#11. Missouri - HOLD. I have been touting them all year and saying how underrated the Tigers were... but at #11 we might have reached our apex here. No possible way this is a Final Four team, but getting out of the first weekend would still be a nice accomplishment given preseason expectations.

#12. Villanova - BUY. Not only have the Wildcats impressed with their five game win streak over Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, Providence and Marquette (yes, they JUST lost to WVU), but they also have a finishing schedule that should be at least a 4-2 or even a 5-1 finish. That puts them well aligned for a 3 or 4 seed come tourney time. I love teams that have a lot of offensive weapons, but who know who their go-to scorer is come crunch time. Scottie Reynolds does, and has, filled that role for quite a while in Phily.

Teams #13-#25 tomorrow.

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WTF??!!??

As a loyal and proud UCF alum, I never delight in wrinting articles about USF; unless the headline was something like "Matt Groethe Hit by Bus!" or something of the sort...

Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Marquette's first conference loss of the season came tonight at the hands of the University of South Florida!

Again - I defy anyone to explain this season. In the past week: Duke suffers their worst loss in 20 years...to Clemson; Wake loses to Georgia Tech, and now Marquette to USF. Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost at home to Northwestern! Then last night, jumped out to a 46-12 lead over NCAA-tourney lock Minnesota.

It is going to be a bumpy ride, but in the end, don't be surprised if we end up back where we started; UNC, UConn, Oklahoma, Purdue, UCLA, Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville...

Or maybe Harvard will win the whole damn thing.

Your guess is as good as mine. Go Bulls!

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Bracketeering - January 19th

Now is the time of year when things start to get interesting. Every time we think we know something about a team (Minnesota's big win at Wisconsin) we turn around and find out perhaps what we thought isn't true (their subsequent loss to Northwestern). It is the time of year when our eyes become more important than box scores when evaluating teams.

For example, is Carolina's narrow road loss in a fantastically well-played game at Wake an indictment of Carolina's fallibility or simply an illustration that the ACC has three true title contenders?

Is the Big East's carnage proof that the top team are all really really good, or an indication that we may have overstated the Top Nine's "greatness?"

And what to make of the Big Ten? Is it possible that there really are nine good teams in this league, and that 8-8 does not preclude someone from tourney discussion? Penn State and Northwestern have each notched impressive victories in league play, but don't forget their body of work before conference play suggests they are just that; "good wins" and not just "bad losses for those slain.

What do we do with the best of the rest? Xavier, Butler, Memphis and Gonzaga are going to pile up some big win totals before Selection Sunday. How many of those February victories are enough to sway minds of the committee? Only Xavier and Butler has an RPI that correlates with their lofty poll status (#5 and #8 respectively), but we shall see what a full A-10 & Horizon schedule does to drag those numbers down.

There are a huge slate of show-me games over the next few weeks to make some more sense of it all, until then, enjoy this week's edition of Brackeetering.

Feel free to agree, disagree or swear at us anytime. We are only an email or comment away...

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Wake Forest - The Deacons survived and thrived in another big test Saturday at Clemson. In the past three weeks they have won at BYU and Clemson and beaten North Carolina. Jeff Teague is making a serious case for first team All-American.

2. Duke - The Dukies beat a better-than-you think FSU team, then followed it up with a solid victory over Georgetown. Another strong case for the ACC as the nation's best league in 2009. We have already set the TiVo for the Jan 28th trip to Wake Forest.

3. Pitt - Yes, the Panthers lost over the weekend at a suddenly resilient Louisville club, but by no means was that a panic button loss. The inability to get quality shots off in the last three minutes was disappointing, but the Panthers rebounded nicely with a pasting of Syracuse.

4. North Carolina - The Tarheels appear to be back on track with their second half demolition of Miami. They host Clemson Wednesday. The Tigers have lost 53 straight at Carolina. Not a typo. 53 straight.


ELITE EIGHT:

5. UConn - The Huskies caught a brief lull in the schedule, but ramp it back up this week playing Villanova and Notre Dame. For some reason, it still feels like something is missing from this UConn squad, but they certainly have Final Four/National Champion talent.

6. Michigan State - The beat keeps on as the Spartans beat two more quality opponents in Penn State and Illinois. This team looks better and better every week.

7. Oklahoma - Oklahoma spanked Texas, then turned around and beat A&M. They are perfectly deserving of a Final Four spot, but no one else fell down. If they can continue to get production from Tyler Griffin and their relatively thin bench, they will be a tough out come March.

8. Louisville - The polls seem to have caught up with March Maniacs. We had the Cards about a half dozen spots high last week, and the Cards rewarded our faith with a big win over #1 Pitt. Terrance Williams has been spectacular, and freshman Samardo Samuels seems to finally be adapting to the college game. This is still one of the two or three most talented teams in the country.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Clemson - Wake Forest handled them pretty easily in what had to be a disappointing loss for the Tigers. That memory will be easily wiped away if they can break their 53-game losing streak at the Dean Dome Wednesday.

10. Marquette - The Maniac admits to sleeping a little bit on this Marquette team. Perhaps it is the back-loaded nature of their Big East schedule that left me a little wary. They are 5-0, but only Villanova and WVU are in the "Big Nine." In my opinion, there are 4 giants in this league and Marquette hasn't seen one yet.

That said,their backcourt is probably the best in the nation; James, Lazar and McNeal are as good a trio as you will find. Only Duke and UNC can make an argument against them.

Just something to plant in the back of your mind; the Warriors close with: @ G'town, Louisville, @ UConn, @ Pitt, and Syracuse. (the first four, are in my opinion, the Four Giants). Brutal close, but the kind of finishing schedule that can legitimately earn you a #1 seed. (Not that I think they will...2-3 would be respectable).

From here, things get tough. You can argue each of these teams up or down real easily. It really is a mess from 11-30 this year. Here is my slant, with an argument for each. Feel free to argue with me.

11. UCLA - A home loss to Arizona State isn't totally inexcusable, except that ASU just lost at home to USC. Parity rears it's ugly head in the Pac-10, however I still feel pretty confident that the Bruins are the best out West.

12. Syracuse - Look, 10-6 in that conference is fine. Syracuse is 1-2 on a brutal stretch that still includes Louisville Sunday.

13. Xavier - Again, I think this team is better than they showed against Duke back in December, but all these A-10 wins are just biding time until March. That said, the Muskies notched a good win at Rhode Island (who also gave Duke fits)

14. Georgetown - Another loss this week for the Hoyas, but their losses (Duke, Pitt, Tennessee, Notre Dame) are all reasonable. Even more they are toughening losses come March.

15. Florida - Surprising pick maybe, but it is hard to ignore the entire SEC as much as pollsters have of late. Texas and Arizona State bring 4 losses to their perch, yet the Gators at 16-2 remain unranked. Their two losses? A close neutral-courter to Syracuse and a 2 point loss to Florida State. They have ripped off a dozen in row and Nick Calathes seems to be settling in as a true leader of this club.

16. Butler- You know my stance on Butler. That said, you have to admit their steady focus in what is supposed to be a "down year" is impressive.

Closing In...
Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Cal, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Kentucky, Texas, Illinois, Minnesota, Florida State, Memphis, Villanova, Purdue, Tennessee

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Siena, VMI, Liberty, George Mason, VCU, UTEP, Davidson, Missouri, Utah St, Illinois St, Penn St, Stephen F. Austin, Illinois St, Creighton