Atlantic Ten Showdown in Dayton as Richmond Looks to Steal Road Win

I've decided to queue the Atlantic 10 update until tomorrow (or late tonight) to allow tonight's Richmond v. Dayton game to unfold.

The reason being, tonight's game is absolutely enormous in shaping the destiny and "to-do list" for each of the teams in regards to earning a ticket to the Dance.

Richmond, on paper, seemed to be the slight favorite about a month before heading into conference play - narrowly edging out Temple, well ahead of Dayton and Xavier with Duquesne nowhere on the radar.  Just a short month later, it's the Spiders who find themselves in the tangled web of bubble-dwelling status, having balanced their wins over VCU, Seton Hall and Purdue with equally bad losses to Bucknell and Georgia Tech.

Dayton entered this season with similarly high hopes, fresh off last season's NIT Championship, and returning their electric scoring combo guard, Chris Wright.  However the Flyers, despite having the same record as RIchmond find themselves well on the outside of the bubble.  They lack a true quality win (Seton Hall, George Mason and New Mexico are their three best wins), and each time they have faced a top-level opponent they have gotten embarassed.  Their early season 68-34 drubbing by Cincinnati the most jarring.

A win tonight at home would solve two of Dayton's big problems; they'd earn a quality win and they'd remain in the A-10 regular season race.  The conference, as good as it is, will not be sending their fifth or sixth place teams to the tourney as at-large bid recipients.  Particularly if they are as devoid of a marquee win as are the Flyers.

Tonight's game is huge in the jostling for position that will take place the next six weeks.  Richmond, at 4-1, enters trailing only Xavier and Duquesne (5-0), with opportunities to play both at home without having to go on the road to return the favor.  As long as they remain close, you have to like the Spiders' odds.

Dayton on the other hand has already lost to Xavier, and still has a home & home with Duquesne remaining.  They will control their destiny somewhat, but falling to 3-3 and two full games behind the Spiders (plus losing the tie breaker) will likely be too much to overcome.

I honestly think both of these teams are NCAA-quality; certainly as much as any third place team from the ACC or Pac 10, however hostory shows us no more than three A-10 schools are dancing, no matter how rosy Lunardi's outlook appears in early February (he had SIX going last year...ooops).

I like Dayton at home tonight, earning a win that makes this conference one of the nation's most interesting in the final five weeks of the season - every bit as clogged at the top as the Big Ten and Big 12, only with a lot more on the line, because all five or six WON'T be getting to the Tourney.

Maniac's Pick:  Dayton -2

Dayton is going to need a big performance from the team, and their home crowd.

A-Plus Night for the A-10

Tonight was a big night for bolstering the national profile of the Atlantic 10.  Last season they flirted with sending as many as six teams to the Dance, before eventually settling for three, with three more in the NIT.  This season looked to be a down year, with Temple, Xavier and Richmond all taking a disappointing early loss or two.

The Atlantic 10 collectively came up big tonight.  First, Dayton took down CAA standout George Mason 73-67.  After some early struggles Dayton is looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.

Richmond pummeled Wake Forest on the road 90-74.  Wake is undeniably down this year, and will likely finsh with a sub .500 record, however aany blowout road win against an ACC school is good for the overall profile.

Lastly, and perhaps most impressivly, Rhode Island knocked off Boston College 67-65.  The Eagles got some pub for their early season loss to lowly Yale.  Since that upset they had regrouped and and won seven straight, including wins over Cal, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland.  This is a great win for the Rams who played Pitt tough in the season opener, and had looked uneven since.

The win moves the Rams to 9-4 and puts another team in the at-large conversation for the league.  Likely no more than three will dance, but with Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island the A-10 is again relevant on the national stage.

Wednesday Gems in Mid-Major Land

Last night's Pitt v. UConn game ushered in the onset of conference play with a bang.  The game may have been slightly overlooked thanks to the odd Tuesday Night Football game, but college hoops fans had to be delighted with a great matchup to jumpstart phase two of the college sesason.  Non-conference play is almost over, but tonight serves up a nice handful a final conference comparison games.

There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests.  Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)


7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls.  Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is?  Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic.  Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.

The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play.  The point being, the loss may not be that bad.  Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina.  The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.


7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there.  Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati.  Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall.  The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.

George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006.   Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford.  Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular.  Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun.  This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial.  As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.

This is the best game of the night, in my opinion.  Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...


7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country.  All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina.  More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym.  They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon.  A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.

VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range.  A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring.  Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about.  They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.

9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3)  @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem.   Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket.  The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se.  The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.

Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins.  Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile.  Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.

9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment.  One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP.  It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders.  Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
 
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan.  Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship.  St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams.  They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.

God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State.  Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee.  At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins.  A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...

Maniac's Picks:  
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14

Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd

After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play.  If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.

Harvard @ UConn -13:  The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated.  It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition.  However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts.  Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good.  Gimme the Huskies big.

UCF -3.5 @ UMass:  If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights.  After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad.  UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall. 

This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball.  I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor.  I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.

Texas @ Michigan State -6.5:  Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March.  They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph.  Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season.  Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up.  Gimme the Longhorns and the points.

Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5:  Is this line a typo??  I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong.  It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width...  Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier.  This is my first lock of the year.

Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5:  Don't sleep on the Dragons.  They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center.  They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome.  Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League.  I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.

For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST.  For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!

Butler -8 @ Utah,  Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga


Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Atlantic 10 Misses 2009... Badly

Ten months ago reasonable people were speculating the Atlantic-10 would receive as many as six bids to the NCAA Tournament.  With seven teams playing in the postseason (3 NCAA, 3 NIT, 1 NCIT) 2009-2010 was widely considered a fantastic one for the conference.

This year?  Yikes...

Conference standard bearer Xavier is seriously in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years, and only the second in the past eight seasons.  Tonight's loss to Miami-Ohio was only the Muskies second (Old Dominion), but needing overtime, at home, to beat both Wofford and IPFW portend some tough days ahead.

Their saving grace might be that the rest of the league stinks as well.  Charlotte fell to 3-5 after losing to East Carolina.  Dayton lost at home to East Tennessee State.  This weekend they got doubled up 68-34 by a less-than-stellar Cincinnati team.  Richmond, the conference's lone bright spot lost tonight to fellow mid-major darling Old Dominion (they'd be in first in the A-10 if you're scoring at home...).

George Washington got trounced by George Mason.  St Joe's dropped by Drexel.  UMass squeaked a 2-point win over Quinnipeac College, Rhode Island lost to Illinois-Chicago.  While the A-10 was hoping to fatten up on some preconference wins, they have instead turned into the buffet.

It's been a rocky start, both for Xavier and the A-10

There is still time to right the ship, but as of today, I only have Richmond and Temple in, with Xavier hovering and no one else in clear sight.  Unless some clear top-heaviness emerges inside conference play, it is looking less and less likely the A-10 can repeat the magic of last season.

Big Night in the A-10

Tonight is a huge night of hoops for the nation's sixth best conference.  No, we're not talking about the Pac-10, or even the Mountain West, but none other than the Atlantic-10.  Depending on whom you believe, if the season ended today the A-10 would have four or even five teams in the Field of 65.  Tonight's games gives us a good glimpse at some of the best, and also some of the middle of the pack slugging it out for position.

The marquee matchup takes place in Phily, where the 4-0 Xavier Musketeers visit the similarly unbeaten Temple Owls.  Both teams seem likely tourney teams though Temple is much more of a lock than X at this point.  Xavier has taken some losses, but none of them "bad" losses; double-OT at Wake Forest, at Kansas State (who just beat Texas), Baylor and Marquette on a neutral floor, Butler on the road on a controversial ending.  Their overall profile, RPI (16th) and momentum (and pedigree, though it isn't supposed to matter) scream tourney team.

Tonight's game is huge for Temple, who can take control of the conference and legitimately start thinking Top 4 seed with a win tonight.  The game is equally big for the Muskies, who have had a lot of close calls, but aside from the double-OT win over Cincinnati, lack a real marquee win.  A quality road win against a ranked opponent does wonders for the RPI and national profile, as does taking control of the league.

Temple will look to wrestle control of the A-10 tonight hosting Xavier

Dayton also looks like as solid tourney team to me, but faces a tricky visit from GW tonight.  The Flyers should win and keep pace in the A-10, but a game like tonight, against the 7th or 8th best team in the league, shows how good and deep the A-10 is in 2010.

It is a similar situation for Rhode Island when they host dissapointing Duquesne tonight.  The Dukes were just a few minutes away from earning the league's NCAA bid last year, before falling to Temple in the closing minutes.  With a lot of key cogs back, expectations were high in Pittsburgh.  Suffice it to say they haven't been met.  Since gagging up a win in double-OT against Pitt, the Dukes have gone 4-6, 0-3 in conference.  Still, they have some talent and are much more of a threat than most league's cellar dwellers.  It will be interesting to see how routinely the Rams handle their business.

Xavier v. Temple is the best game.   The most intriguing game is Charlotte at Richmond.  If a fifth team does sneak in from the A-10, it is likely one of these two.  Richmond has the conference's best out of league glamour win collection, with wins over Florida, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State.  However they have already lost to St. Louis in conference and had tougher-than-expected tussles with UMass and Lasalle.

Charlotte opened some eyes with the beatdown they laid on Louisville in Freedom Hall, but

also boasts a 42-point loss to Duke to go with 33'er to Old Dominion and a 18-spot to Tennessee.  If the committee looks at margin, this screams of a team that might embarass you if you select them.  However, a win tonight brings them to 4-1 in the A-10, and probably slots them slightly ahead of the Spiders on the Big Board pecking order.

A great night of hoops for fans of the Atlanic-10 - enjoy!

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puerto rico tipoff

This year Puerto Rico has assembled an interesting and deep field, with only George Mason and Boston U. being clearly outclassed, though the Patriots do bring mid-major name cache' to the party.

The best game of the entire 3-day tourney might be the very first to tip as Dayton squares off against what should be a vastly improved Georgia Tech squad. How high are people on the Jackets and freshman standout Derrick Favors? Consider that the Jackets were 13-19 last season, yet enter the game ranked #21 in the country. And for good reason. Add in Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert and Paul Hewitt might have his best team on campus since 2002.

Dayton is an experience-laden team poised to build on last year's NCAA tournament opening round win. Tabbed as the early season favorite in the A-10, and ranked #18 the Flyers have a chance on (early) national TV to rack up an huge early resume win for the profile.

This is a hard one to pick, but I'll take the Flyers experience over the Jackets promise in an exciting preview of two teams who hope to be playing well into March.

The second game features an interesting Villanova team which should be in mix for the Big East title all year against a down George Mason squad. Look for Villanova to cruise with relative ease.

The 5pm tilt is one that I'm way more excited for than the rankings and RPI's would merit. Ole Miss quietly has one of the best backcourts in the SEC with Warren and Terrico White. IU is in year two of the Tom Crean reclamation project and should make some substantial strides. It may not happen tomorrow, but write it down, Indiana will NOT finish eleventh in the Big Ten this year. I guarantee it.

The night cap gives an early look at Kansas State's Wally Judge who played sparingly in the Wildcats' first two contests. Kansas State has their sights set on improving on last year's NIT appearance. Picking up a few wins in Puerto Rico would go a long way toward that aim.

Games:
11:30 am - Dayton v. GA Tech
2:00 pm - George Mason v. Villanova
5:00 pm - Indiana v Mississippi
7:30 pm - Boston U v. Kansas State

Picks: Dayton, Villanova, Ole Miss and K-State, with Dayton beating Ole Miss in the Final.
(although I wouldn't be stunned if GA Tech beats the Flyers in the opener...)

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Breaking Down the Midwest Region

Previewing the Midwest Region

Best First Round Game: West Virginia v. Dayton. The Flyers downed Big East foe Marquette earlier this year, utilizing their quickness and solid guard play. They are going to need every bit of it in order to tackle Bob Huggins' Mountaineers. West Virginia freshman Devin Ebanks has just begun to scratch the surface of his talent over the past three weeks and guard Alex Ruoff can shoot his team deep into the tourney.

Best Player: An easy argument could be made for Louisville's Terrance Williams, Wake Forest's Jeff Teauge and Kansas's duo of Sherron Collins and Cole Alderich, however the Maniac is going to go with an unlikely pair; Arizona's Jordan Hill and Chase Buddinger. For whatever reason (and there are a lot to choose from) things never quite clicked in Tuscon this year. If for some reason it finally does this weekend, it will be in large part because of these two future first-rounders. Either way, this combo makes Arizona one of the more talented #12's in recent memory.

Most important player: Edgar Sosa - Louisville. When the Cards struggled early, it was their guard play that plagued them. Sosa's role is far diminished from the role he played in the 2007 tourney (where he was sensational as a freshman, by the way), but it is still an important one. If he and the guards can control tempo and the basketball, Pitino's Cards look like the favorite to get to Detroit.

A couple runner-ups include Michigan State's Kalin Lucas, WVU's Alex Ruoff and USC's DeMarr Derozan.

Worst Seeding: Siena at a #9. I know, everyone loves the Saints (that's Siena's nickname by the way) and the tourney toughness from their tough schedule. Let's recap Siena's Top 50 wins. Ok, we're done. There aren't any. But clearly the strength of schedule propelled them to a #9 seed. Meanwhile Tennessee is also a #9, despite winning the SEC East, a down, but clearly superior league to Siena's and playing the nation's 2nd toughest schedule. Oh, and the Vols even WON a few of them. Siena should be an #11 at best, more likely a #12.

Toughest Break: Siena, once again. I think Ohio State beats them anywhere, anytime, anyway, but playing the game in Dayton where tens of thousands of Buckeye fans can make the hour drive is a pretty unwarranted advantage for OSU.

Possible 2nd Round Gem: How about Arizona versus Wake? That game would likely feature more future first-rounders than any other game in the tourney. Jordan Hill, Chase Buddinger, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson,; they aren't all household names, but their talent is unquestionably immense.

Easiest to Root For: North Dakota State makes their first ever NCAA tourney appearance in their first season of eligibility. The Bison went 16-2 in the Summit Conference, and played USC tough earlier this season in Los Angeles. Don't be surprised if the Bison hang around long enough to rally some excitement in the crowd...and some tough flashbacks of Bison for Jayhawk fans...

Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Louisville over Arizona, and Michigan State over West Virginia
Louisville beating the Spartans to head to Detroit

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The Dirty Forty

OK - Let's start with an explanation of this column, which will be a running feature through the last week of the regular season and conference tournaments.

The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always, look at Georgia last year... but also look at the last 20 years - back off dude.)

The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids truly in play this week.

Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are IN or OUT.

Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.

Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.

And for the record, the Maniac did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...

OK, onto Tha' FORTY:

Locks (in alphabetical conference order):
North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, Utah

That makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And YES, Creighton is a lock. NO, Siena and Utah State are not.

Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):
West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, Dayton

And then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)
Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.

If you are counting, that was pick six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).

I'll give you the Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.

THE WHY'S:
For the five "almost ins" - Texas and West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...

Penn State closes with Iowa; assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.

UNLV and Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.

UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...

That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.

Gotta love March!

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Wierd Line of the Day

The Dayton Flyers have a pretty good ballclub, and are certainly the A-10's best hope for a second team dancing behind Xavier. However "Flyers" seemed an inappropriate moniker for tonight's Titanic Struggle (shot out to Ohio's Marty Brenneman of Reds' fame...) with Miami of Ohio.

Final Score: Dayton 45- Miami (OH) 40. The teams shot 35 and 32% respectivly, and were a combined 5-29 from behind the arc (about 17%).

Yuck. People went to a sporting event and nearly got subjected to a soccer match...

Tuesday Round Up - Best Games Across the Nation 12/30

There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.

Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue

The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.

This place will be rockin' tonight

7 PM UAB @ Butler

UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).

Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.

7 PM George Mason @ Dayton

George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.

They are good on '08... not THAT good though.

7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina

An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.

8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas

Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle.

MANIAC'S PICKS:
UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5

Maniac Picks - Dec 10th

A slate of good games today - some under the radar (Dayton @ Creighton is a gem) and others on TV only for the strong-of-stomach (TCU @ Indiana). Here's how the Maniac sees them going down.

Oh - by the way, we are 59% A.T.S. so far on the young season...

MANIAC PICKS:

Ohio +16 @ Xavier - Muskies win, but still have some point guard issues to resolve before they run anyone out of the Cintas Center. They best figure them out before Saturday with the high-pressure UC Bearcats looming seven miles down the road.

Cal +6 @ Utah - A good game. Cal can win this straight-up. Take the security of the six points.

Butler -2 @ Bradley - They're Baaaaa-aaack. Take the tough Bulldogs on the road.

Dayton +6.5 @ Creighton - This line seems like Vegas saw the name on the jersey and the home court and ran with it. Dayton is the better club this season, and gets a chance to prove it tonight. I'll make this my LOCK of the night.

Gonzaga @ Washington St. +4.5 - Give me the rivalry factor, plus the the grind of having so many big games stacked back to back to back to...(you get the point) working against the Zags. Wazzou might not steal the win, but expect a really tough, well played game. Washington St. might be the most under appreciated program in the country over the past 2 seasons.

Under the radar? Not if they steal a win over the Zags...

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3 Intersting Starts

Three teams that are on the Maniac's Radar...not ready to slot them in Bracketeering, but they have made interesting blips.

Florida State (7-0)

Seven wins, including victories over Cal and Cincinnati make for a solid start. A closer look at some of the scores makes them an intersting team to track. 2 Point win over Jacksonville, 4 points over LaSalle, by two over STETSON. Then by 11 over Cincy and a 3-point margin over Cal. It seems no matter the quality of the opponent, FSU beats 'em close... Let's see if they can keeo it up against Wake, Miami and Duke (UNC intentionally ommited.)


Jacksonville St. (4-1)

Agreed, they are not a Top 25 team, but if you want a team to keep on your radar as a possible 14 or 15 seeded roll-of-the-dice, consider the Gamecocks. They opened with a 13 point loss to the "Gamecocks"; meaning the one's you HAVE heard of at USC. They rebounded with wins over Georgia St, UMass, and a 28 point drubbing of VMI... who beat Kentucky...who beat West Virginia and Kansas St on back-to-back nights.... I'm just saying....

Dayton (6-0)

A perfect 6-0 start with wins over Auburn and then #15 Marquette. The Flyers hope to avoid a repeat of last year's injury plagued second half swoon.

Flyin' High

Dayton stockpiled an important non-conference scalp by taking down #15 Marquette yesterday. It is also a big win for a A-10 conference that has disappointing early (Charlotte, St. Joes, UMass) other than Xavier.

Dayton was led by a surprising scoring outburst from junior guard Rob Lowery. Prior to the Marquette game, he had scored: 5,9,2,5 and 2 points respectively.