Coach of the Year...Sort of

Let's be honest.  Coach of the Year is rarely granted to a coach of a transcendantly great team.  In fact, with the constant greatness of programs like Syracuse, UConn, Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, you can bet it's a long shot most years for Coach K, Roy, Izzo, Boeheim, Mark Few (who really deserves some votes this year) or Calhoun to take home the hardware anymore.  That honor this year will much more likely be bestowed on the likes of a Tony Bennett, Bruce Pearl, or Jamie Dixon (again).  In short, it goes to the coach whose team most dramatically exceeds expectations.

So let me give you my nomination for Coach of the Year, with a twist.  More specifically Worst Coach of the Year.  Hands down, it's lovable, affable Roy Williams.  It hurts to write.  It's hard to say, which is why very few media outlets will say it, but it is undeniably true.  It's been an abysmally poor coaching job this year in Chapel Hill.

You can make the argument that Carolina lost more in terms of talent than any team in the country heading into this year.  I'd agree with you.  You can also argue that Carolina was drastically overrated to begin the season and they just weren't as talented as advertised.

I'll give you that one too.  Sort of.

Let me give you a recap of Carolina's early exploits.  They hammered Cal, then lost to Syracuse.  The beat Nevada and Michigan State.  The lost by just two at Rupp Arena and were competitive in a road loss to Texas.  They opened conference play with a comfortable double-digit win over Virginia Tech.

This hardly seems like the resume of a team about to be overwhelmed by admittedly mediocre 2010 ACC competition.  In fact, their first few losses were very competitive as well.  They got clipped by a bucket by Georgia Tech at home. Then the wheels completely came off.  In their most recent games they have not just been beaten, they have been uncompetitive.  They have been embarrassed.  The Heels got blasted in their own gym by Wake Forest.  They followed it up by getting blasted again in the Dean Dome, this time by UVA.  Most recently they lost to Maryland by 22 on a less-than-Super Sunday effort.

Coaching accolades are given to teams who show steady progression; growth; an ability to come together and rise above adversity.

So what do you get when your team packs it in and does the exact opposite?

You still want to argue that Carolina's Mickey D's All-American parade is slightly overrated talent?  Fine.  I'll concede reluctantly.  If you want to argue that Wake Forest, Clemson, Maryland and VIRGINIA are MORE talented?  Come on now.

At 13-10, the NCAA Tournament is realistically long gone.  At 2-5 in ACC play with Duke looming tomorrow night it is not unrealistic to think they could miss post-season play all together. Things are truly that dire in Chapel Hill.  And don't just take my word for it.  Tune in to any Roy Williams post-game conference and he'll tell you ad nausem.  It has eclipsed "light a fire pep talk" and drifted into "beats the hell out of me, these guys stink" territory.

When you watch Carolina play of late you see a team with an immense amount of talent that looks lost, searching for direction, completely devoid of leadership.  Ideally you'd love to have a floor leader like Sherron Collins or John Wall.  Most teams don't, and when you don't, then you look to the bench.  You look to Roy.  Instead of looking for fans to eject and explanations you hope for some solutions and resolve.  This season?  It seems he is hoping for the exact same thing.

.

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Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

Ah, how about a song reference sever score past it's timeliness to kick off the week... yes, the constant striving for headline greatness will never cease here at MarchManiacs baby!

Last year was a top-heavy year in college hoops, with three Goliaths from the BEast claiming top seeds, offset by mighty North Carolina.  One short year later?  The BEast may indeed lay claim to at least two #1 seeds in March, but it certainly won't come from last year's triumvirate of UConn, Louisville and Pitt.  As for UNC?  They are one more bad home loss away from "seeding" being the least of their concerns.  They might be struggling to earn a home game in the Not Invited Tourney...

Two of last year's behemoths clash tonight in what has the look of a back-to-wall classic.  Both Louisville and UConn enter tonight's contest with non-winning conference records and honest to goodness bubble status.  Louisville is desperately devoid of a "quality win", though they came within a bucket (and some controversy) of beating both Pitt and West Virginia in the last two weeks.  UConn has the good win (Texas) and high quality non-conference losses (@ Kentucky, @ Duke), and looked like they were poised to not only make the tourney but be a threat to get out of the first weekend.  A funny thing happened after the upset of Texas (who has major issues themselves these days).  The bottom fell out.  Back to back bad losses; by 13 at Providence and at home to Marquette have left the Huskies at 13-8 (3-5) and desperate for a win tonight.

The winner stacks a major chip in their pile for an at-large bid.  The loser picks up their ninth loss of the year with more than a month of grueling conference games still to play.  That's not a place you want to be on February 1st.

Pitt was supposed to be rebuilding this year.  Then they were supposed to be this dominant force, knocking off conference big shots in their gyms seemingly every week.  This week, clear the deck for the crash landing.  The loss to Georgetown was understandable, particularly on the heels of a game they were very very fortunate to escape with a win over Louisville.  The losses to Seton Hall and South Florida have me rethinking just how firm of footing the Panthers our on for  March.  Road wins over the Cuse, Cincy and UConn go a long way, but their non-conference resume is glaringly bare; a fact that was overlooked during their hot conference start, likely because no one was paying attention to Pitt in December.  At the time, they simply weren't relevant. 

With games this week AT West Virginia and hosting Seton Hall, the Panthers find themselves a few more losses away from being relevant in another discussion; the bubble.

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Moving Up and Moving Out - ACC Edition

Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out".  Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory.  I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC.  I really don't think it is possible at this point.

Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson.  I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night.  I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT.  I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.

The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends.  That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.

Moving Up:

Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference.  Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach.  However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham.  By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.


Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win.  It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.

Virginia - What to make of the Cavs?  I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained.  One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams.  All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play. 

Moving Out:

Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend.  However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200.  Let me repeat that.  TOP 200.  Yuck.


Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit.  Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss.  It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.

North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels?  This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia.  It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do.  It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia.  I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection.  It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.

It is getting real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point.  Will they make the tourney?  It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games.  This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland.  They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.

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Wow.

Humble pie by the truckload for the Maniac tonight as UNC drops their ACC opener...at HOME...to Unranked Boston College 85-78.

More later in the weekly rankings, but a stunning result in Chapel Hill.

Ten Sure-Fire Predictions for 2009: A look into the college hoops crystal ball

Everyone makes New Year's resolutions. How passe' and cliche' and a bunch of other French words the Maniac can't spell without the aide of spellchecker. Around here, we don't resolve to do anything differently in 2009. Just more of the same kickbutt comprehensive coverage and fearless predictions.

First, a HUGE "Thank you" to our loyal readers - it looks like an amazing 2009 season on the horizon. But...for those of you who can't wait for it to unfold, let me give you a glimpse into the hardwood future...

1. North Carolina will get a few stern tests this year... but the first one is not from Wake Forest on Jan 11th. It is going to be another twenty-plus'er, don't let the folks at ESPN get you all geeked for that game, unless you just want to see what could be the first truly transcendent team since Tark and LJ's 1990-91 UNLV team. UNC's tests will come from the likely suspects; The ACC tourney, at Duke on February 11th. If they enter that game undefeated and emerge the same way, don't expect them to even be tested until the season finale at home versus...Duke. Oh, by the way, that's Tyler Hansbrough's grand finale at Chapel Hill. Unless he has an anuerism during pregame chest bumping, I don' see Psycho T going out a loser on his home floor, do you?

The Maniac's Take? I really think they are going to run the table. I wanted to take the safe route, "someone will get them, it's too hard...blah blah blah..."

They truly are that good with NO discernible weakness. They are not jump shot dependent. Shots going astray? Pound it inside to their stable of bigs. The other team gets hot from the perimeter? UNC amps up the pressure, creates turnovers and gets easy buckets. They score more quickly and easily than any team that can also defend I have seen since, well, UNLV.

So, it's on the record. UNC runs the table. (I write while chomping on a rolled up towel...)

(But if they were going to slip up, aside from the obvious ACC Tourney, Final 4, etc. don't overlook a Jan 28th visit to Florida State. The Noles suck, but seem to always have the Heels number at home).

Seriously, those guys are freakin' good.

2. While other big-name conferences are crying over teams left out, the Missouri Valley sneaks three teams into the Big Dance. My picks? Creighton, Illinois St. and Evansville (though I like Drake as well...)

3. The A-10 gets just one. Dayton is a good ballclub, but I don't trust them just yet. St. Joes has been abysmal, ditto for UMass and Temple. Rhode Island has an outside shot but would need 12-13 wins in conference to get there. Xavier should be a lock, despite recent stumbles. Let's just say there are a lot of power conferences that will be rooting for the Muskies to win the A-10 tourney this year.

4. Somehow, someway, the SEC will earn 5 bids. It won't be pretty. But somehow four teams besides Tennessee are going to scrape their way into 7-12 seeds. I think Kentucky will surprise and emerge as the second best team in the SEC (Jodie Meeks is the best off-guard in the country, but I will listen to arguments for Hardin and AJ Abrams (who is 5'10''... so really not an "off" guard, yet I digress)

From there, you are left with Arkansas (I don't want to overvalue the Oklahoma game, but at, say, 9-7 in conference, that win tips the pendulum in their favor), LSU, Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Alabama and Auburn are awful; I don't care what their records are. Ditto for Georgia and Mississippi St. I liked Ole Miss before Chris Warren got hurt, so they are out too.

When push comes to shove, gimme Arkansas, UF and LSU, with Vandy just missing.

Who's been better in 2008-2009 so far??

5. Davidson will get screwed on their seeding, despite posting a 16-0 SoCon record and going 27-3 overall, They still will not be a top 4 seed. Their three losses will all be Top 4 seeds; Oklahoma, Duke, and Purdue. Yet Davidson will end up a 5 or 6. We love Steph, but that Purdue beating left a residue with the committee. Write it down.

6. But we DO really love Steph. He will narrowly edge Tyler Hansbrough for National Player of the Year. From there, Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson and Jodie Meeks round out my ballot.

7. The Boeheim (or "bubble" for March Maniacs neophytes) will include two preseason Top 10 teams. Gonzaga and Louisville will sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but both do get in and immediately become the 7-10 seed NO ONE wants to see in the second round. Matter of fact, UConn prays Gonzaga doesn't fall into their bracket...

8. The Mountain West is the best conference no one in the country gives a care about. They have six teams who could make a legit run at the tourney. UNLV and BYU are locks. New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah and Air Force wouldn't be stunners to be included, and TCU and Wyoming don't suck. That leaves only Colorado State...who does suck. But so do Georgia, South Florida, St. Johns, Oregon State, Indiana, Iowa State... if you get my point.

That said? Only two end up dancing. The top two win too many games and the middle cannibalizes each other, similar to the A-10 last year (In February, people were talking five bids...by the time it was all said and done? Just two.)

9. The biggest "snubs" on selection Sunday? Here are my six or seven who make the most waves: Vanderbilt, Drake, Villanova, Miami (FL), Maryland, Michigan (I know...again), and the loser of VCU/George Mason. The one who takes the hose but no one cries? VMI, who gets edged out by Seth Curry and the Liberty Flames in a great game about a week before "Championship Week" starts...

10. Someone way dumber than you or me will kick your can in your tourney office pool. Knowledge is power! However, when it comes to sports, nothing is concrete or absolute. If it were, we wouldn't watch...and you wouldn't be reading. So relax and enjoy the ride. It is a game of bounces and emotion, of momentum and minute inches; the difference between winning and losing often just a few whistles, a box out, a free throw (sorry Memphis fans...)

It really is a beautiful thing...

Almost as beautiful as those pretty uniforms on the 13 seed the hot chick in the cubicle caddy-corner from you correctly pegged in the Sweet 16 sending you to certain defeat...

Enjoy the ride, and have a great New Year!
~ The Maniac.

Bracketeering - College Basketball Rankings Dec 22nd

What a difference a week makes. Big name school asserted themselves (UConn, Duke, Michigan St.) "mid-majors" looked middling (Xavier, Davidson), and a few big conference unheralded squads began to place themselves squarely into the Bracketeering discussion (Minnesota, Clemson).

Little changed at the top; at the VERY top that is, other than another great addition to history, as Tyler Hansbrough eclipsed Phil Ford's 30-year standing as the leading scorer in the illustrious history of North Carolina basketball. Up next? Tyler sets his sights on JJ Reddick's ACC mark (our guesss? expect sometime in February...hey, what else is in February? Oh yeah, a trip to Cameron Indoor...hmmm)

That said, let's digg into Week 5 of Bracketeering!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Perhaps they just beat everyone by twenty; they did the same to Evansville and Valpo this week. Other 20-point victims this year? Kentucky, Notre Dame and Michigan St.

2. UConn- Speaking of "focus." I think we all see what can happen when the Huskies hunker down. This team is loaded, loaded, loaded with AJ Price an excellent equivalent to Ty Lawson at the point. There are some reason to grade this team tough (schedule, close games to sub RPI-100 teams) but lets be truthful. No one else has the depth or horses (other than maybe Duke) to give UNC a game.

3. Oklahoma - I love these guys more every time I watch them. Wins over VCU may not pique the nation's fancy; but they are a good sign this team possesses the focus to not stumble in the second round come March.

4. Duke - Michigan game aside (the second one, when Scheyer and Singler went icicles against the 1-3-1 halfcourt) this has been the second best team in the country. Their thorough dismantling of Xavier Saturday looked like a Final Four team. They are versatile (Singler, Henderson), deep (nine players solid - I know, "Paulus sucks" but name me a better backup PG in America??), and tenacious defensively. This team scored 21 points and forced a half dozen turnovers before giving up a single bucket to a very good Xavier club.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Pitt - Nice win over Florida State. Pitt is good. An eight point win over Florida State is not enough to put them in the Top 4. They will take on their first ranked opponent Jan 3rd @ Georgetown. I am looking forward to that game, it should be a nice unveiling for Sam Young, LaVance Fields and company.

6. Purdue - This is a complete ballclub when they are getting offensive contributions from their point guards and bigs like they did against Davidson Saturday. E'Twan Moore has not been "All-American" good like some media outlets projected, but Purdue plays a fluid team style that does not lend to statistics. The defensive effort of Chris Kramer on Steph Curry this weekend was masterful. Purdue is a contender in an absolutely fantastic Big 10.

7. Ohio State - The Elite 8 numbers six through eight was tough this week. The AP poll give you: Wake Forest, Gonzaga & Notre Dame. Two of those teams have TWO losses; the other (Wake Forest) I defy any of our readers to make a compelling case that they are the 6th best team in America. Meanwhile the unbeaten Bucks languish in the low teens. If the pre-season polls had them ranked, they would be #4 right now. We at least have them 7th. And that's probably why you are one of our readers. .. (we appreciate it, b.t.w.)

8. Gonzaga - A loss yes, but not one to drop them in Bracketeering. An overtime loss to the 2nd best team in the nation should not be a crippler. But, the Arizona loss has us a little uneasy (particularly after they got housed by UNLV on Saturday). Gonzaga is really good, but seems to be teetering a bit on underachieveing...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Syracuse - The AP poll has them 17th this week. The buzzer beater loss to Cleveland State? Yup, a bad one. The subsequent road win at Memphis minus Devendorf makes up for it. If you are scoring at home, Boeheim's December bakery run has been replaced with wins over Florida, Kansas and the aforementioned Tigers.

10. Wake Forest - Undefeated still, but we have a little different criteria to move UP than the AP poll does (their criteria? "teams losing ahead of you while you munch cupcakes") Honestly, do you think this is the 6th best team in the country?? Other than the win over Baylor, there is little to brag about pre-ACC.

11. Georgetown - Things are going great so far for the Hoyas, but their stretch from Dec 29th - Jan 6th is BRUTAL (UConn, Notre Dame and Pitt). Survive that unblemished? #2 is realistic. Let's win ONE first though...

12. Notre Dame - My highest ranked 2-loss club other than Gonzaga. They get a free pass for the UNC loss, I think most of us were amazed by HOW good UNC is; that win was the grand unveiling. However, with Harangody healthy again, this is a legit Final Four caliber team.

13. Michigan St. - They firmly handled Texas in Dallas. Izzo's teams are always better in March than November. If they are as good as they looked in Dallas this weekend, look out.

14. UCLA - Time to stop punishing them for two close losses. The Michigan loss seems more reasonable after their handling of Duke, and losing @ Texas is no embarrassment. As J'Rue Holliday gets more comfortable, the Bruins are looking more comfortable winning a down Pac-10.

15. Missouri - Their only loss was a last-minute defeat to Xavier in Puerto Rico. They have beaten Cal and Arizona State handily. Their game tonight against Illinois is a quiet GREAT game. I like them at #15 over more heralded conference mate Baylor. Tonight will show me if I am right.

16. Michigan - The Big Ten is legit. Their could easily be 6 teams in the top 16 if I was ready to consider Minnesota "good" more than I consider Louisville "un-good". Michigan's wins over UCLA and Duke stand on their own. However, since then, the Wolverines have been biding time tackling stalwarts like Florida Gulf Coast and Oakland. Since they haven't played anyone, it is hard to move them up - and their wins haven't gotten any LESS impressive. So for now - they stay at #16.

They resume basketball next week playing Wisconsin and Illinois. Win those and we can consider moving them up.


Slippin': The Maniac drops the hammer

Xavier - It hurts, but lets be honest. Saturday showed that senior BJ Raymond was right when he called the Muskies "the worst undefeated team in the country."

Yes! I agree! #7 was WAY too high!

Louisville - This season reminds me of '05 for the Cards. Preseason Top 5 ranking. A few big name returners, a big-time heralded recruit coming, and disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Cards fans hope this year doesn't end in similar Spring kNITinng.

Texas - The polls won't punish them as hard as we will for the Michigan State loss... because it is NOT about the Michigan State game. It is the back-to-back somnambulistic performances versus in-state corpses Texas St & Texas Southern.


Closing In...
Villanova, Illinois, St. Mary's, Baylor, Tennessee, UNLV, Butler

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Drake, Kentucky, Dayton, VMI, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Boston College, Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois St, Charleston, IUPUI

Davidson might have even more to worry about; Charleston can PLAY..

LOOKING BACK...
Intriguing...Now Come Out and Play! (Copied from LAST week - let's see each team's responses)

Minnesota (10-0) - Georgia St, Virginia, Bowling Green (yes, those are their "best" wins)
Went out and whooped Lousiville. "Nuff Said. Tubby has more than just getting to the tourney on his mind from here on out.

Stanford (5-0) - Air Force, Colorado, Colorado St. (that's right, you're my bitch Colorado!)
Nice home win over Northwestern. Still have some proving to do.

LSU (7-0) - This list is simply awesome, I shall post it in it's entirety: Troy, Centenary, CSU Fullerton, Jackson St, Alcorn St, Grambling St, Northwestern St. (3-0 vs. the SWAC!!)
Lost to Texas A&M by a dozen. Oh well, there's always the SWAC tournament...

Bracketeering - Dec 14th

An exciting weekend of college hoops, capped with an "upset" win by Arizona over Gonzaga in Phoenix. I say "upset" simply as an ironic tip-of-the-cap to the mighty Zags. Who would have ever thought a near-home win over Big West Gonzaga would be a storm-the-floor type win for the mighty Wildcats.

Despite all the upheaval in Tuscon, expect the Wildcats to extend the longest NCAA Tourney streak in Div. I come March.

That said, let's digg into Week 4 of Bracketeering!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Not much else to say at this point, but kudos in advance to Tyler Hansbrough, who should pass Phil Ford as UNC's all time leading scorer Thursday night in Chapel Hill.

2. Oklahoma - A solid win over Utah continues to build an impressive resume for the Sooners. Could they be the first program in NCAA history to have the player of the year in football and basketball?

3. UConn- They had the week off. Hopefully to stew on the poor performance at Buffalo. A big date on the 20th in Seattle versus the Zags should be enough to keep them focused.

4. Texas- I know, I know, why does Pitt drop? Because poles are for strippers. We use the eye-test herr (for rankings, not for strippers...well...) Texas has been electric and tested. The win over Villanova in the Garden was impressive enough to overlook the closer-than expected win over Texas State.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Pitt - Call me when Pitt laces 'em up in January. I think they are very good, but we will have to wait and find out for sure. I know when LaVance Fields is in the lineup, they rarely lose. Then again over the past three weeks, they tackled heavyweights like Vermont (Tyler Coppenrath is two years gone, fellow junkies) and UMBC. Way to stretch yourself Panthers.

6. Duke - What an incredible rare treat looming next Saturday when Duke and Xavier team up in the Meadowlands. A win positions the Dukies to creep back into the Top 5 and stay in the #1 seed dscussion.

7. Xavier - Deep, balanced and incredibly well coached. Have the Muskies reached the point where this could be a destination for Sean Miller rather than a stepping stone? X fans sure hope so.

8. Gonzaga - The gauntlet finally got them. It is probably too stiff a penalty dropping the Zags all the way to #8, but they get a chance to bounce way back up when they meet the #2 Huskies in Key Arena Saturday at 4PM.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Louisville - probably still one of the top 5 teams in the nation. That loss to Western Kentucky could be a distant memory in a few more weeks.

10. Ohio St - forget the national polls. This team has consecutive victories over Miami (FL), Notre Dame and Butler. And is undefeated.

11. Syracuse - Can't penalize them for the Devendorf uncertainty (yet). Unblemishe and an uncharacteristically solid schedule.

12. Wake Forest - Is the ACC the Big 3? Wake Forest and lead guard stud Jeff Teague think so. We are starting to believe them.

13. Georgetown - A good RPI-resume builder with Saturday's OT win over Memphis. However, the game showed me some weaknesses that might prove costly when Big East play begins.

14. Davidson - Another reason polls are for strippers, not real basketball fans. If they were in a power conference with their early season resume they'd be no lower than 12th. Instead, they lag behind Notre Dame, UCLA, Arizona St, Michigan St, and several other teams that haven't earned it on the floor yet.

15. Purdue - The Duke game still stings the memory, but this is still a good ballclub that will contend in the better-than-people-realize Big 10 (expect 5, and as many as 7 bids come March).

16. Michigan - I came real close to moving UCLA back in - then thought of WHO their losses were too... oh yeah, MICHIGAN. The Wolverines remain for another week.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Michigan St, Memphis, Wichita St, Western Kentucky (look at the losses other than the LVille win), Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and I keep on piling on the SEC....

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Clemson, Missouri, Illinois, Butler, VMI, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, East Carolina,

Intriguing...Now Come Out and Play! (Nice starts, but play someone already!)

Minnesota (10-0) - Georgia St, Virginia, Bowling Green (yes, those are their "best" wins)

Stanford (5-0) - Air Force, Colorado, Colorado St. (that's right, you're my bitch Colorado!)

LSU (7-0) - This list is simply awesome, I shall post it in it's entirety: Troy, Centenary, CSU Fullerton, Jackson St, Alcorn St, Grambling St, Northwestern St. (3-0 vs. the SWAC!!)

Don't Laugh - It'd be the toughest game on their schedule!

Maniac's Picks

Six of his last seven, the Maniac looks to continue his sage soothsaying today...

Indiana @ Wake Forest -23
Penn St @ Georgia Tech - 7
Miami (OH) +5.5 @ Temple
Auburn +14 @ Xavier

LOCKS OF DAY:

Florida St -2 @ Northwestern
North Carolina -10 @ Michigan St. (Ford Field)


I love Xavier, but substantial injuries (Derrick Brown, Holloway) will keep this game closer than expected. X wins, but not by 14.

UNC is the biggest lock of the season. This team dismantled Notre Dame last week, and had time to rest and get healthier. Michigan St. was the most overrated team in the nation (along with UCLA) in preseason polls. UNC will continue rolling, the Maniac says by 20+.

Ditto for FSU. Yes, it has been a while since they have gone to the big dance - but that is because of what they do in FEBRUARY. Their Decembers have always been nice. Northwestern is in the midst of a tourney drought as well... like an infinite one. Not sure HOW FSU is only laying 2.

Seriously, What's Not to Love about the Noles??

Bracketeering - Nov 30th

Take it or leave it - the Maniac's second edition of Bracketeering for 08-09

FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Thrashings of Notre Dame and Kentucky looked routine. Is there any doubt they do the same thing to Michigan St. this Tuesday?

2. UCONN - Wins over Miami and Wisconsin. UConn will have some competition for certain, but appears to be ready to tangle with a tough Big East.

3. Duke - We'll find out how tough Duke is this week against Purdue. My guess? Tough enough.

4. Oklahoma - Played a tough Davidson squad last week in what had the feel of a "third round" tourney game. Took care of Purdue this week in a "Regional Final."

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Gonzaga - This is written before their tilt with #12 Tennessee. I think the Zags win it, and gear up for the Duke tilt later this month.

6. Notre Dame - Yes, Carolina had their way with them, but they are going to make a lot of good teams look very pedestrian. Notre Dame's win over Texas and steady play in 08 are enough to erase the memory of the Ty Lawson track meet in Maui.

7. Pitt- OK, I give in. This is one of a small handful of the best teams in the country. For now.

8. Xavier - Originally an admitted homer pick, but with every team around them taking losses or ducking competition, the Muskies hang on to the 8th slot for another week. Upcoming games against Butler, Cincinnati, Auburn, Virginia and Duke will settle whether they belong.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier
Texas, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Davidson, Tennessee, Baylor, LSU, Louisville, Michigan St, Villanova

Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Lousiville, USC, Marquette, Southern Illinois

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Dayton, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Air Force, Kentucky (forget the VMI game, this will be a tourney team) and Western Kentucky (bad 28-pt. loss to Murray St last week, but gets a temporary nod after dismantling the 'Ville in Freedom Hall)

Not as big as last year's tourney run, but a nice win for the 'Toppers in Louisville.

Bracketeering - Nov 23rd

Take it or leave it - the Maniac's first edition of Bracketeering for 08-09

FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Zeller's loss was eased by Hansbrough's return. The likely medical red-shirt might be an odd blessing

2. UCONN - Not sold on UCONN going into today, but a convincing win over an experienced and solid Miami club gets them the #2 spot.

3. Duke - Yes, they had an early struggle against Rhode Island, but it is obvious this Duke team has the explosiveness and athleticism that has been lacking the past two years.

4. Louisville - A nice welcome for Samardo Samuels. If he can contribute at a 15-10 level, this team can legitimatly challenge UNC for the title.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Purdue - not severely tested yet, but will find out real soon as their next two games are against BC and Duke. Purdue has all the tools in place to win the Big 10, and make a Final Four run.

6. Oklahoma - Yes, they sleepwalked through a too-close Gardner-Webb victory, but the win against Davidson showed me two things: Freshman PG Willie Warren is legit, and that Blake Griffin is the most dominant player in the country.

7. Gonzaga - Tons of returning talent and athleticism. Their usual November/December gauntlet gets under way this week as they begin a 6-game stretch that includes: Oklahoma St, Washington St, Indiana, Arizona and UCONN. Win 4 of 5 and they move UP in the poll.

8. Xavier - Homer pick? Maybe. But at this juncture with nuetral floor wins over Missouri, Va Tech and Memphis, they have done more to earn it than anyone else so far this season.


Sweet and lurking: The next tier
Michigan St, Pitt, Notre Dame, Memphis, Wake Forest, Davidson, Texas Tech, Marquette, Tennessee, UAB, Florida

Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
UCLA, USC, Arizona.. notice a trend??

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Clemson, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, LSU, Air Force

It's EARLY, but so far, the Muskies have something to shout about.

Maniac Picks - Nov 18th

A New feature to March Maniacs - our fearless spread-friendly picks for some of the most intriguing games in the country. Of course we would NEVER endorse gambling - our picks are merely utilizing the spread to...um... make things more challenging! Yeah - that's it!

MANIAC PICKS!

Richmond @ Syracuse -15.5: The 'Cuse exorcise the demons of their historic tourney loss 17 years ago. Only in a lot less exciting fashion. Donte' Green has taken his first step towards D-League greatness, but the Orange have plenty in the fold. Johnny Flynn is NBA-good and Devendorf keeps defenses honest from long range. Plus that match-up zone is nightmares for non-conference opponents (perhaps because Boeheim hasn't scheduled a legit one in 20 years...)

PICK: Syracuse -15.5


Kentucky @ UNC -16.5: UNC begins their quest to capture the title many felt they should have grabbed last season. Hansbrough will sit, but the Heels have plenty of talent to make up for the POY's absence. Indiana's Luke Zeller shined in Hansbrough's absence in game one. (I guess Kelvin Sampson ran out of texts... how did this kid get away?) Kentucky looked abysmal losing to VMI, but the Cats will regroup. Patterson will enjoy the lack of Psycho-T inside and will score often. Can the Cat's guard handle the ball well enough to withstand Carolina's pressure? My guess is not enough to win, but just well enough to cover.

PICK: BIG BLEW +16.5



Davidson @ Oklahoma-4: I love college hoops. I really do. You get games like this once or twice in the first few months of football season. In hoops, you get them all November long. Davidson looks to build on the most spectacular tourney run since George Mason (more interesting because of the emergence of Steph Curry) by notching a big scalp in Oklahoma.

Take a look at the Wildcats early schedule this year: Oklahoma, Winthrop (always tough), West Virginia, NC St., Purdue (best team in Big 10 - write it down), and DUKE. Gotta love the aggressive scheduling and you can bet it will pay dividends come March.

But not tonight. Davidson has no answer for the strength, size and quickness of Blake Griffin, a Top-3 pick in next year's draft. Curry may go for 30, but I'd be surprised if Griffin doesn't nearly match him. And Blake has a little more help around him. Davidson is a good ballclub, and Steph Curry is absolutely dynamic. His 4-game tourney run last March was honestly transcendent. Everyone is a Steph Curry fan now...including Vegas. 4 points is not enough, Oklahoma is just a better team overall. (But I'm rooting for Davidson - like everyone else...)

PICK: Oklahoma-4

All-Final Four Team

The best thing about it - in six hours SOMEONE not on the list will prove they should have been.

PG - Derrick Rose - a real tough call, as Collinson and Lawson are both fantastic, but to me Derrick Rose presents a match up problem unlike any other in the Final Four. His blend of strength and quickness makes him a mismatch on any of the smaller PG's left in the tourney.
SG - Russel Westbrook - another tough choice, picking him over Chalmers of KU and Douglass-Roberts. Westbrook's ability to dictate the game from a defensive standpoint will be key to slowing the Tigers fantastic backcourt.
SF - Brandon Rush - Kansas's fate swings on whether or not Rush is able to show up on the big stage. He has been here and there in the NCAA tournament. He needs to be ALL there for KU to hang with the Tar heel's explosive offensive attack.

PF - Tyler Hansbrough - Is there any doubt? Yes, Kevin Love has been fantastic (you can cheat and call him a center if you want...) but Tyler Hansbrough has been consistently dominant. Those who question his athleticism, check out the put back dunk against Louisville in the closing minutes.
C - Sasha Kaun - The underrated big man provides a David Padgett-like stabilizing effect on the Jayhawks. His ability to stay on the floor and out of foul trouble is vital for the Jayhawks to beat UNC.

Coach - Roy Williams - All three are fantastic coaches, but only Williams can rely back on the experience of cutting down the nets. Howland will get his third consecutive crack at it, and Calipari heads to the Final Four for the first time without Marcus Camby on the payroll. Bill Self will be playing with house money, having the BCTNFF monkey off his back.

Capping the Sweet Sixteen

After one weekend, here are the most impressive/dangerous teams of the tourney:

1. North Carolina - Is there any doubt? Absolutely steamrolled Arkansas, and showed an amazing ability to control tempo. There are going to need to in order to handle the stifling defense of a very underrated Washington St. squad.

2. Louisville - What a shame they will have to meet the Tar Heels shy of the Final Four. A team with absolute national champion-talent, as evidenced by the controlling domination of a solid Oklahoma squad.

3. Kansas - Yet to be challenged in the Big tourney, rolled through the Big 12 Tourney as well. If Self can stay out of the way, it seems unlikely this team will be stopped short of San Antonio

4. Washington St. - The most anonymous, dangerous team in the tourney. Unfortunatly for them UNC sits on deck. Their scrambling, trapping defense and ability to control tempo held Notre Dame to 41 points Saturday.

5. Wisconsin - The best team in the country that no one os talking about. Handled K-St. and Beasley from the opening tip and cruised into the Sweet 16. The looming match-up with Kansas could be a classic.

6. Xavier - Two solid victories over GA and Purdue. This senior-laden team plays aggressive man to man defense and switches on perimeter ball screens better than any team in the field. They have the versatile bigs to run waves of defenders at Joe Alexander on Thursday.

7. West Virginia - Speaking of Joe Alexander, he and the Mountaineers took it TO the Dookies Saturday. Their agressive, fearless, tenacious style makes for one of the most interesting Sweet 16 matchups that is flying under the radar.

8. UCLA - I know. A&M had them on the ropes. But yet, again, UCLA found a way to pull it out. Collinson and Love are fearless in the clutch and if worse comes to worse they can make the game winner from behind the backboard.

9. Michigan St. - Perhaps a fortunate recipient of the annual Pitt gift-wrapping victory, but no question Neitzel took over that game late and didn't let go.

10. Davidson - Perhaps the run is over after Wisconsin, but has any team brought more excitement and joy to the tourney than the Davidson Wildcats?

11. Texas - The game against Miami wasn't nearly as close of the score, with the Longhorns controlling the game throughout, but the foul foul-shooting is cause for concern

12. Memphis - Speaking of FOUL. Wow. Anyone who sincerely thinks Memphis can win a national title needs only to watch the last two minutes of the Mississippi St. game. You cannot win three or four games in a row holding on for deal life. Sooner or later, it catches up with you. My guess is against Stanford Sunday night.