Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

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