February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Saturday's Picks

The Maniac looks to continue a blistering start on a loaded college hoops Saturday. Quick Picks below. As always, we of course don't condone gambling in any manner. However, if one were to gamble, I'd like to point out we are over 65% ATS on the season...

Michigan +20 @ Kansas - Kansas hasn't been tested in a month, Michigan has failed every test in 2009's early going. It seems to point in the Jayhawks favor, but I think Michigan hangs around enough to cover.

Mississippi St -3 @ Houston - Missisippi State has quietly begun to find their stride. Houston has been good at times this season, but the Bulldogs are too talented to fall tonight.

North Carolina +6.5 @ Texas - It is difficult to say how either team will react to cavernous Cowboys Stadium, but I do feel confident that the Tarheels will not be overwhelmed by the environment. They have already played Ohio State and Syracuse in MSG, and played Kentucky at Rupp. Plus, the Heels are no jumpshot dependant, preferring to penetrate and take advantage of their quickness and the size of their deep frontline. I think Texas is a Final Four team, but I think UNC might be a little more ready at this juncture of the season.

Virginia Commonwealth -4 @ Tulane - I like VCU with ease, perhaps Vegas sees something in the Green Wave that The Maniac hasn't... Gimme the Rams to cover by double digits.

Temple +4.5 @ Georgetown - It is dangerous to pick all road teams with your picks, but I don't care. Seton Hall is this year's Providence; good in the early going with a great record built against inferior competition. Temple however has played as good a slate as anyone in the country and is sitting at 8-2. I think they not only cover, but get the win over Jeremy Hazell and the Pirates.

South Carolina -2 @ Wofford - Another road game, and I originally thought this line was a typo. It isn't. Jump on the Cocks ("ladies" said in my creepiest voice). Wofford is not terrible, but SC is in a whole different category in terms of offensive ability and athleticism.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.

In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.

Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.

Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.

2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.

3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.

4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.

6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.

7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).

8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.

10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.

11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.

12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..

13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.

14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.

15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.

16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)

Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico

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A Little Thanksgiving Spice

The Old Spice Classic kicks off tomorrow at noon in Orlando, Florida in what has become one of the premier "pre-season" tourneys. This year's field may not have the top flight headliner, but it does have a field full of teams with March aspirations.

The top of the class is probably Michigan which returns do-everything star Manny Harris and three starters to John Beilein's squad. Harris and Ohio State's Evan Turner will be one of the best head to head match-ups come March, and isn't nearly as one-sided as some might make it out to be. Harris is that good. Behind him, Michigan has to be the favorite.

Manny Harris is a close second-best player in the Big Ten

But the road won't be easy, starting in the Noon tip-off against always pesky Creighton. The Jays opened with a loss to fellow mid-major darling Dayton but have aspirations of begining a new NCAA Tourney streak this year. An "upset" win over Michigan would be a nice feather in their cap.

The second game features the undervalued Xavier Musketeers against the rebuilding Marquette Warriors. Gone is the backcourt trio that led Marquette for a Top Ten ranking before Dominc James' injury. Lazarus Haywood returns to try and steady the ship. X has been good in the early going, with Jordan Crawford fitting in nicely to an experienced Musketeers squad that will look to him to carry much of the scoring load from the perimeter. They will get their first true test in the 2PM tip.

The evening features a matchup of two squads trying to rebound from dissapointment in 2008-2009 when Alabama meets Baylor. Both figure to be in the lower half of their respective leagues. This game might give a nice glimpse into the relative depths of the SEC and Big 12 respectively. Neither have played a top-tier team yet in 09 (though that didn't stop the Tide from dropping a game to Cornell...)

The nightcap features a Florida State squad fresh off a humiliating shellacking by in-state rival Florida, against the Iona Gaels. A week ago, Florida State figured to be the favorite (or co-favorite along with Michigan). Now? The 'Noles might be grateful for a relatively soft draw.
Maniac's Picks: Michigan, Xavier, Florida State and Baylor. Give me the Noles and the Muskies in what should have been a rematch of last year's NCAA Rd 2 (except for Bo Ryan's Badgers! Intentionally forced reference for the benefit of my Nole-fan readers!)

Yes. I honestly like the Musketeers cutting down the nets in Orlando, but admit Michigan has the most overall talent in the field.

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Stock Up, Stock Down - BIG TEN

This week did much to settle the murky bubble picture as several teams did much to shape their chances. Here is a quick rundown of where everyone stands as of Monday, March 2nd.

Big Ten:

Wisconsin - Things are looking good for Bucky after yesterday's home win over Michigan. I think Wisconsin is IN, solidly #4 in the Big Ten.

Ohio State - Still up in the air, but they close with Iowa and Northwestern. Do what they are supposed to do, and the Buckeyes should be safe. They have a bevy of wins over the Top 100 and Top 50 to fall back on.

Michigan - The did the Paula Abdul this week (no, not the "act like a crazy bitch on national tv" thing - the "one step forward, two steps back). Don't act like you don't remember MC Skat Kat.... Anyhow, their win over Purdue helped their cause immensly, but yesterday's loss to Wisconsin put them right back where they started. I still think Michigan gets the nod over Minnesota and Penn State at this juncture.

Minnesota - Where did things go wrong? Minnesota looked like a lock most of the season, but has hit a big time Big Ten rut. The good news Gopher fan(s)? You control your own destiny, finishing with Wisconsin and Michigan. Win both and it's a lock. Drop both and Tubby and crew will be kNITing.

Penn State - Other sites have them IN ahead of Michigan, I just don't see it. The Lions have had an impressive Big Ten run, and are plenty worthy of a bid, but when 34 resumes get laid on the table in two weeks PSU lacks the big wins to rise to the top of the pile. They finish the season with Illinois and Iowa. Better win 'em both and keep the momentum running into the conference tourney.

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Bubblin' Hot

Yep, it's all-bubble talk, all-day here at MM.com. Don't act like you don't like it!

One of the Maniac's bro-mances this year has been with Penn State and point guard Talor Battle. As a matter of fact, we flirted with sliding Penn State into "lock" status after their win at MSU and the troubles that have befallen Wisconsin and Michigan.

So what happens tonight?? Penn State scores TWENTY points in the second half, en route to a 20+ point loss to Michigan. That completes the season sweep of the Nittany Lions. Put that chip in Michigan's pile along with wins over Duke and UCLA, and the Nittany Lions need to significantly separate themselves from the Wolverines in order to dance. The Maniac would wager healthily that both will NOT get a punched Dance card.

Dunking Penn State makes the Big Ten one big, exciting mess.

Oh, throw in the Wisconsin easy win over Illinois and you once again have a giant jumbled Big Ten mess.

A week ago, dare I say, the Maniac predicted the resurecting run by the Arizona Wildcats. After their 3-point win tonight in Corvallis, only hapless Oregon stands in the way of the revivial coming to frution. It will be interesting to see whether the nation's longest active NCAA-appearance streak can live on for another year...

Seriously dude, stomp on MY face...

A couple good games to look up results for tomorrow: Gonzaga v. Portland, and Washington @ Cal...

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Big Bucks

The Michigan tourney drought (or "NIT streak" - depends on whether you are a coach is half-fired or half looking for a "better job" kinda guy) appears to be a distinct possibility.

The big wins over Duke and UCLA seem light-seasons ago as the Wolverines' Big Ten struggles continued tonight with a comfortable beating at Ohio State. It is their second loss to the Buckeyes this year. They play Penn State next week, having already lost the first matchup to the Nittany Lions. Suffice it to say getting swept by two conference foes who might be perched on the same bubble come selection Sunday would be the death knell.

Ohio State gets a vital conference win to move to 4-4 in conference and 14-5 overall. They are comfortable IN as of today, but can still easily slide back onto the bubble (or off it...). Their next week is big with a should-win against Indiana, then hosting Purdue and Minnesota. They really need to win one of the last two to keep their tourney hopes strong.

Are the 'Wolves really NITting again this Spring?!?

The Maniac has both the Buckeyes and Penn State ahead of the Wolverines on the big board as of today, and a trip to Purdue this weekend might not be the tune-up Michigan needs before a Penn State visit to Ann Arbor. After that things settle down for the Wolverines. They visit Connecticut Feb 7th.

Ouch.

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Engines Revving

Apparently not everything has slowed down in the Motor City.

Michigan blitzed the #4 Dukies 81-73, utilizing their athleticism and a tenacious 1-3-1 defense; the same defense that made UCLA look clueless less than two weeks ago.

Duke had plenty of open looks from the perimeter, but Singler (1-9 from distance) couldn’t find the range, and the Blue Devils never got in sync offensively.

DeShawn Sims threw in a career-high 28 to go along with 12 boards to spearhead the Wolverines second enormous win of the young season. In a balanced Big 10, those two wins could be what gets Michigan over the Big-10;’s second longest NCAA Tourney drought.