Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering. We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com. The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most.
That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in. More than likely, it keeps you out. But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement. There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll. By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State) The reason it tends to work that way? We watch a lot of games. You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.
Where does the Maniac find the time? Easy. Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....
On to Bracketeering!!
FINAL FOUR:
1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one. The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year. John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a
significant upgrade at the point. Ditto for Mason Plumlee. Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick. Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench. Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game. Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.
The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth. Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is
more than enough to cut down the nets. Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.
Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.
Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.
2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up. The Buckeyes
have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets. Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud. Think Blake Griffin. The skill sets are very, very similar. Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.
What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty. Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team. His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed. I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club. Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).
John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.
Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be. Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.
3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence. The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th. Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.
Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back. However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause. I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.
Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.
4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East. With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests. The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising. Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!? I sure didn't.
Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation. Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well. In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.
So here's my early read on Pitt: They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock. They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends. Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end.
Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense. Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat. In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor.
It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record. Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC. Other than that, the resume is really blank. They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.
This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams. After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.
6. Kansas State -
There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad. Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente. Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better. The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving.
Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game. Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.
The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns. They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison.
Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play. They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.
7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement. Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn. Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria. One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub? Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March. If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is. The good news for Izzo? This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender. With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.
Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington. Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.
8.
UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today. Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard. Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg. Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.
The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii. Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55.
Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas. Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State. Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
From here on in, things get pretty tricky. If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme. A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far. This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play. You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky). Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.
9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden. This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad. Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011. The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.
10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs. They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State. The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues. From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.
11. Missouri - The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book. Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season. This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control. If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll. If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently. Here's betting they can, and will.
12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team. However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet. E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season. Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.
The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10. Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama. The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much. Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.
Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011. However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.
13. Kentucky - The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent. That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.) However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui. The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt. That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.
Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines. Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots. Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.
Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State. They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).
Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well. Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season. Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.
15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth. Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show. Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's. Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.
The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0. Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play.
16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play. If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.
Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive. This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR. Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.
The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful. Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively. Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis
tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.
Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments
Butler - What a difference a year makes. Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship. This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville. With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.
Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite. The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality. The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame. They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).
Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal. Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple. Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.
Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated. Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State. However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of being perceived as quality yourself. In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis. Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.
The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley. Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs. With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.
Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12. At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems
sleeper might have been better termed
sleeping.
Half Court Heaves: Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:
Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida. Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)
Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.
UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week. The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA
Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:
Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,
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The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati
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#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker. Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result. Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.
