When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

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