Doubting Duke?

If only not for the volumes of articles penned by yours truly outlining the possibilities of a Duke perfect season, I might be tempted to try and gloat and slip in a few "saw this one coming" or "tough matchup for the Dukies" - or some other blithe phrases to insinuate that I, or anyone, saw today's Dukie disaster brewing.

Truth be told, very few of us (and by "us" I mean us - college hoops die-hards and knowledgeable fans and media outlets) saw Duke's now-obvious significant flaws.

But perhaps we should have.

Everyone was so enamored with Duke and their seeming-invincibility as they continued to knock off ranked opponents with relative ease.  The Kyrie Irving injury was of course a disappointing hiccup, but by no means was seen as something to derail the Dukies in their quest to repeat as National Champs.  Take a look at their three marquee non-conference wins; Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler.

Quick - name the three most disappointing teams in the nation.  If you're pressed for time, you can simply answer "ditto."  All three were in the Top Ten (or at least Top 15) in every national publication.  Today, none of the three are ranked, and frankly they aren't even close.  Butler is 5-4 in the Horizon League and in danger of missing the tourney.  Same story for K-State and their eight losses, and today Michigan State needed OT to beat Indiana at home to pull their record to 13-8 (5-4).

If Duke came dressed as an unbeatable superpower, it is worth considering that they were playing teams that have aided more than a few less-than-stellar teams in donning the same disguise.  Today's pasting by St. John's highlighted the Devil's achilles heel; if their shots don't go down, the Devils will.  They hit a few late garbage-time shots from long range to pull their final three-point shooting numbers to five of 26, or 19%.  At one point the Devils were one for nineteen.  It's tough to beat your mom in a game of horse shooting one for nineteen, let alone go on the road and knock off a Big East foe.

For St. John's the win is enormous.  In the latest MarchManiacs.com Bracketeering (to be released Monday), the Johnnies were among the first four on the outside looking in.  Hammering Duke in the fashion they did today changes that.  They are in eleventh place in the Big East, and bizarrely; it isn't that big of a deal.

It's impossible to remove Marquette, Cincinnati or West Virginia based on current data, so they stay in.  Things are likely (um, more like definite) to get insane over the final four weeks, but as of tonight, I have Lavin and the Johnnies getting in, and a record-shattering eleven BEast teams punching dance tickets.

For the Devils, nothing too dire was lost today aside from some confidence and a bit of the aura of dominance.  They will still likely win the ACC and are in as good of shape as anyone else in the country aside from Ohio State for capturing a #1 seed.

It is, however a jarring wake-up call that this season, as if the weekend hadn't already taught us, is completely up for grabs as we roll towards Selection Sunday. Unless Kyrie Irving makes a rapid and remarkable recovery, there is no prohibitive favorite.  Thank goodness college hoops settles it on the court - the BCS computers would explode...

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