Michigan State is a Disappointment - But Should it be THAT Shocking?

There is no question that 13-9 and on the outside of the bubble is an unusual and disappointing predicament for Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  He, and they, afterall, are one of the premier templates for consistent excellence in college basketball.

But should their less than stellar play be as big of a shock as it is being received as?

Here is an alternative viewpoint to consider.  Last year Michigan State entered the NCAA tournament at a solid 24-8, but only a 5th seed.  To place it in a different context, that would have them somewhere between the 17th and 20th best team in the country.

State's road through the NCAA Tourney was equally precarious.  In the first round, they barely dodged a big upset, slipping past #12 seed New Mexico State 70-67.  In the second round, an even more daring escape, when a desperate buzzer-beating three by Korie Lucious found the bottom of the net.  The shot was intentional, but Lucious receiving the ball certainly wasn't - a freak deflection/pass landed his way and Korie, to his credit seized the spotlight.  The Spartans won 85-83 and survived and advanced.

If this shot doesn't fall...

Korie Lucious has since been permanently dismissed from the team for an unspecified third violation of team conduct.

The Sweet Sixteen got even sweeter for the Spartans when Northern Iowa stunned top team in the country Kansas, knocking the biggest obstacle in that half of the bracket to the wayside.  Sparty took advantage of their good fortune by beating the upstart Panthers 59-52.

The Elite Eight?  Well, maybe "elite" is too grand a term in this instance.  After the bottom half of the bracket fell apart as well with Ohio State and Evan Turner and Georgetown bowing out, suddenly the "best region ever" looked a lot less daunting.  Sixth seeded Tennessee advanced to meet Michigan State with a trip to Indy on the line.  Again, more heart-palpitating last second moments smiled the way of Sparty, as they advanced with 70-69 win.

Next stop, the Final Four. In a game that set big time college basketball back to the pre-shot clock era, the Spartans finally bowed out 52-50 to Butler.

Suppose for a second that either of those first round games broke the other way with a different last-second moment of good fortune?  Would Michigan State have entered this season in the Top 5?  Top 10 even?

This season is no doubt been a disappointment.  It's just that perhaps some of the disappointment should also be shared by those of us in the prognostication business as well...

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