Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
RPI's that Hurt:
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
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