It leaves quite a mess for this week's Bracketeering, and rather than the brackets (which I was told were tough to read), we will spell this one out by seed line, with logic loops to follow each line.
Enjoy The Maniac's look into the crystal ball of March - and feel free to make your case for any omissions.
#1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue
Syracuse has been #1 on our big board for weeks, and see no reason to slide them until someone beats them. Kansas has the easier road to the finish, having already won at Kansas State and getting a wounded Texas tomorrow night, but Syracuse did more out of league and plays a slightly higher-rated schedule in the Big East (though the Big 12 probably is deeper percentage of quality team-wise). Kentucky seems pretty solid as a number one.
The fourth #1 was a tough one. It could be one of the three Big East giants waiting in the wings, but I have a feeling they are going to slug it out a bit and beat each other out of the top slot. I went with Purdue. Aside from last month's three game slide, they have been flawless. They seem to have found a rotation and are getting some bench punch from John Hart and Kelsey Barlow. Kalin Lucas's ankle injury opens the door for Purdue to take the Big Ten and earn a #1 seed in the process.
#2 Seeds: Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Michigan State
Duke can still earn a #1 if they can distance the rest of the ACC pack and win the conference tourney. I think they'll take at least one more loss and ease in as a comfy #2. WVU and 'Nova can both easily slide up as well. They have the non-conference scalps that paired with winning the Big East crown would make them automatic one seeds. Michigan State is an interesting case. They will likely lose their Big Ten lead is Lucas is out several weeks as anticipated. However, they were 9-0 (really 9-1, Wisconsin had them beat either way) until he was hurt. The committee will grad them accordingly and look at the overall body of work. I think the Spartans stay as the final #2.
#3 Seeds: Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas
Both Kansas State and Georgetown could easily have been twos. The Hoyas are an interesting case; they hammered Duke and Villanova, yet in between lost a home game to South Florida. It is that inconsistency that will keep them off the top two seed lines, but will also make them the 3 seed your whole pool LOVES. Ohio State is sneaky. They could stay hot and win the Big Ten. If they do, their loss total (even with Evan Turner sidelined for three of them) keeps them off the top line. The best they can do is a #2, I think they land as a really dangerous three seed.
Finally there is Texas. They went from one seed to, if the tourney started today, four or five seed in the bat of an eye. I think they'll stop their free fall (and like them to sack up and nap KU tomorrow night) and round out the most dangerous three line in recent tourney memory. Honestly, is there any reason any of these four couldn't just as reasonably cut the nets down as the eight teams seeded above them??
#4 Seeds: Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Butler
Gonzaga's loss to San Fran keeps them off the three line, their awesome strength of schedule and strong RPI keeps them at the four if they can avoid any other sleepwalkers. If the tourney was held in the Kohl Center, I'd make the Badgers the favorite. It isn't, so for now, they'll be the four seed that creates matchup nightmares for coaches.
I like Vandy's remaining schedule and the road wins in league to keep them ahead of Tennessee, Florida and Ole Miss on the big board. Lastly, people forgot about Butler but it appears they aren't going to lose again this season as they are 13-0 in the Horizon and already tackled some of their "toughest" foes. The Bulldogs were competitive in every game they played in their daunting pre-conference slate and will be a tough out if they get to the Sweet 16. Their discipline and interior size could be a tough draw for a team like Kentucky.
#5 Seeds: New Mexico, Pitt, Temple, Maryland
The Terps seem to be for real, and Grevies Vasquez is moving up my national POY list. They are 6-2 in the balanced and tough ACC and appear poised to settle into the second slot in league play. Pitt and Temple both raced out to great starts in league play, but have taken a few losses lately. New Mexico's pounding of BYU, and stronger RPI moves them ahead of the Cougs on the Maniac's board.
#6 Seeds: Tennessee, No. Iowa, Baylor, Georgia Tech
Tennessee has come back to Earth a little bit, but that win over Kansas is a huge chip when it comes seeding time. I might have Baylor and No. Iowa a little high, but I really like both teams to finish strong. Ditto for Georgia Tech, who IF they can ever put it all together has Sweet 16-level talent.
#7 Seeds: Cal, BYU, Rhode Island, Texas A&M
Speaking of "if they ever put it together", how about Cal? They still have one of the better backcourts in the country, and have shown flashes of quality but have yet to pull away from the throng of mediocrity in the Pac 10. I'll try one more time to restore some faith in the Bears and have them temporarilty over-seeded as a #7. BYU's weak non-conference doesn't allow for many losses like the one they took this weekend in conference play. Rhode Island has the strongest RPI of the pack of teams lumped between two and six in the A-10. Their frenetic style will be an eye-opener for some unsuspecting 2-seed in the tourney.
#8 Seeds: UTEP, UNLV, Xavier, Ole Miss
UTEP is coming on strong and is my pick to win C-USA. The win over Tulsa really moves them up. Likewise for UNLV's win over San Diego State. Xavier has great quality close losses and a fantasic RPI, though the 90-65 beatdown they took Saturday in Dayton has to at least slide them back to bubble-aware footing. Lastly, I like Ole Miss to finally play to their potential and win the muddled SEC West. Their home game against Mississippi State could decide who goes to the tourney.
#9 Seeds: Richmond, Cornell, St Mary's, Missouri
Richmond has by far the most impressive non-conference win tallies of the A-10 bunch, hence they get the nod here over Dayton and Charlotte. It is going to be a fight to the finish in that league. A lot of people are projecting six bids, but I'm a realist - only four; maybe five are getting in. While chaos abounds, Cornell fans have to be smiling. Long gone is their chances for big wins, however they steadily creep up the board as seemingly everyone around them falters. Their "almost win" at Kansas could wind up being the most valuable loss in terms of seeding.
#10 Seeds: Louisville, UAB, Clemson, Dayton
I'm picking Lousiville to emerge from the six through twelve clump in the Big East battling for two or three slots. The Cards have done less out of league than teams like UConn, South Florida and Seton Hall, but I think they are also more talented than those three and will finish with ten or eleven conference wins. In the BEast, that punches your dance card.
I'm not sure what to make of Clemson. If the tourney were today, they are out, behind the likes of Virginia Tech, Florida State and possibly even UVA. However, I like the Tigers down the stretch to edge ahead and make the field. Same for Dayton. That Xavier win was a huge one. If they can avoid any "bad losses" I think the Flyers will get in. I also like UAB. They have some great wins out of league and are 8-2 in the underrated C-USA. That said, if they slip up Memphis or Tulsa could snatch that spot from them
#11 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Florida, Old Dominion
Quick caveat - from here on in, every team is on a thin margin for error. A few upsets in leagues like the Horizon and WCC could screw things up. Siena could creep in (possibly even a 27-3 Murray State if they lose their league tourney) so no one on this list is safe.
That said, I like Oklahoma State despite their three game slide. The would have the best player in the tourney wear road jerseys on the openeing day if they get in. James Anderson is legit. I'm giving VA Tech the slot here over Florida State and Virginia. Just a gut feeling they'll earn it.
It kills me to put Florida in. I really don't think they are any good and that NC State win is such a fluke it bugs me to put that in their "good win" column. However, at 17-6 in the SEC, it seems likely they finish over .500 in league, get 20 wins and can boast wins over Florida State and Michigan State out of league. That'll get them in.
Yes, I have Northwestern IN at 5-6 in league play and Illinois OUT at 8-3. Just watch the next two weeks unfold - then email me your apology.
#12 Seeds: Siena, Wichita State, Arinzona State, Marquette
The same logic that gets Northwestern in is how I have Marquette here. I think they are better than Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall. I'm not sure they are better than South Florida, but do have an easier closing schedule. Wichita State deserve to be in, and so does Old Dominion. We shall see if the committee rewards the mid-major or greedily grabs from the pool of BCS-mediocrity.
Arizona State is here are the Pac-10 Tourney representative. No sense projecting Cal, only to have a bid "stolen" later. Given the parity it is quite likely one of the eight teams (Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Washington State) other than Cal wins the tourney. SO - this is their slot. "Other Eight" is intentional, yes I can count. Yes, screw USC.
#13 Seeds: Murray State, Northeastern, Utah State, Coastal Carolina
Northeastern could just as easily be replaced by VCU, William & Mary, or George Mason if one of them wins the CAA. Regardless I think this league gets a team in addition to Old Dominion (even if ODU wins the conference tourney) This slot is for team #2. Utah State moves in this week over LA Tech in the WAC
#14 Seeds: Lafayette, Charleston, IUPUI, Northern Colorado
#15 Seeds: Pacific, Denver, Akron, Morgan State
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, Vermont, Belmont, Texas A&M CC, Texas So.
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Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
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