Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.
Pitt (18-6, 7-4): It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list. They are not on the bubble. But they could be soon.
I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet. Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana. So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates. Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame. It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games. IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble. The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers. I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%
Louisville (15-9, 6-5): Can you say BRUTAL? That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's. They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home). Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).
Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn. The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall. The bad news? What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games? Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
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Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%
Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6): Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.
On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%
Marquette (15-8, 6-5): I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board. They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category. That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance. I think they have a good shot. They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely. I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%
South Florida (15-8, 5-6): Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn?? It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot. Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four. They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn. They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul. Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference. They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%
In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list. No joke.
Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6): What happened here? The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.
Now? It looks really, really bad. The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. Ouch. That looks like three losses to me. That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall. Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.
It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%
Connecticut (14-10, 4-7): Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night. Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating. They look at W's and L's. And the Huskies have a lot of L's. Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.
As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot. Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play. But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.
Here's the final seven: Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%
The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks. I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end. Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses). Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame. Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)
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