Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.
Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.
Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.
Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.
Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.
Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.
Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)
Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four
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