Anatomy of a First Round Upset

The fact that their were no significant upsets yesterday means one thing; someone is going down today. Granted, scientifically, statistically, empirically none of yesterday's results have a single thing to do with today's; but don't you just feel it coming today? Someone big is going down.

American pushed Villanova to the brink for 31 minutes, same for CS Northridge but in the end Memphis was far too superior. So who has the chops to go a full 40 today??

Historically over the past 15-20 years the big upset victims had a few things in common.

1. Teams from a major conference that exceeded expectations. Iowa State in 2001 was a surprising #2 seed before being dethroned by Hampton. Ole Miss was not a preseason Top Ten team the year Brice Drew and Valpo initiated them into the lores of NCAA highlights. When Northwestern State shocked Iowa, Iowa had completed a nice regular season, but was certainly not expected to be at that lofty seed before the season started. So who fits that bill today? How about Kansas, Missouri and Wake Forest?

Before the season started, none were ranked in the Top 20. Missouri was considered a long shot to make the NCAA's, Wake was young and thought to be a year away and Kansas had lost all five starters off their national championship team. To have projected any as a Top 4 seed would have been laughable.

2. The team that springs the upset is fundamentally sound and loaded with shooters, with one particularly streaky and deadly from long range. Remember Harold "The Show" Arceneaux? You can bet North Carolina remembers the Weber State shooting star from 1999. How about Bucknell Kansas fans? Precision cutting, solid shooting and calm fundamentals, aligned on a night when the other team makes a few mistakes.... next thing you know....

A few teams that fit that mold? Try Cornell and North Dakota State.

Getting nervous yet Mizzou and Jayhawks?

Look, neither Cornell or ND St are better than their opponents today. None of the #13, #14, or #15 seeds who sprung an upset were. But they only have to be better for one day.

So now it is time to put my money where my mouth is; where is the upset coming from? I think Mizzou is to overwhelmingly athletic and balanced and too quick defensivly to be as "upset prone" as some of the year's previous victims. I think the Tigers roll. I think Wake has the toughest draw of any #4 and will get a real tough ball game from Cleveland State...

So, my "winner" is, with ghosts of Bisons past.... the Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks have shown in previous losses an overdependance on Sherron Collins, who tends to force shots when things are going poorly. Case in point, last month's Texas Tech debacle where he went like 3 of 23 from the floor. They are an extremely young team, facing a team with FIVE redshirt seniors, a fan base who travels well, and one of the most proficient 3-point attacks in the country. It is all the ingredients for some March Madness.

Maniac's Call - North Dakota State in a SHOCKER!

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