5 Reasons Why You Will Lose Your Pool

Let's face it, you are destined to be a loser. Now, I'm not trying to sound like your Mom, guidance counselor or imaginary girlfriend. I'm simply keeping it real. You're a loser baby.

You are going to bomb your office pool and lose to the hot chick four cubicles down, who barely knows a basketball is round. That is, of course, unless the person reading this is the hot chick four cubicles down, in which case, congratulations. And please post a gratuitous victory pic.

Take solace my friends, the Maniac will bomb right along with you, and it isn't anyone's fault. Even Jay Bilas, despite his tremendous length, has no clue who is going to win this damn thing. In a one-and-done format, you just never know.

In the meantime, fill out your brackets, pick a few bandwagons to jump on or off of, and enjoy the greatest three weeks in American sports.

Reason #1
Momentum means nothing. Duke famously made losing in your conference tournament a plus when making a run towards their national titles. Kentucky lost their conference tourney in '96 and still won the big tourney. If that is the case, Pitt, UConn, Oklahoma and North Carolina can breathe a big sigh of relief. Conversely this could be bad news for the 2009 Blue Devils as well as Purdue, Louisville and Missouri Tigers.

Reason #2
Then again, momentum never hurts. In both 2006 and 2007 the Gators got some practice cutting down the nets in Atlanta as SEC champs before cutting them down for real 4 weeks later. Oh yeah, and the Cat's lost the SEC in '96, but WON it in '98. Both seasons brought the crown to Lexington.

Reason #3
Upsets really aren't "upsets" very often. The 5 v 12 "upset" is one of the biggest misnomers in sports. A 12 seed is a team just outside of the Top 25, usually from a major conference who earned an at-large bid. A 5-seed is a team ranked around #20 in the polls. Then put them on a neutral floor and...

For example, put Arizona and their two first round NBA draft picks and program pedigre on a nuetral floor against Utah and tell me an UofA win would be an upset? Very few #14's win, only 4 #15's and NO #16's. The true upsets begin in round two when an 11 or 12 lives to see week two. Anything from a 12 down really is fair game. Most first round games are 3-5 point Vegas lines. If you can pick ALL those correctly, MOVE. Jobs suck. Bet on hoops.

Reason #4
Shots don't always fall. There is always going to be good days and bad days shooting the rock. Most upsets are sprung by lesser talented teams gunning away from behind the arc. A few shots fall, the crowd gets behind the lower seed, the favorite gets a little tighter...start pulling the string on the jump shots, forcing shots earlier in the shot clock.... next thing you know, UPSET city.

The beauty of momentum is you never know how and when it is going to be seized by. George Mason loses to UConn 19 out of 20 times in 2006.

But it only takes one. And no one (apologies to Gotlieb and Bilas) can predict WHEN that is going to happen.

Reason #5
Did you watch these neutral floor - one and done - conference tournaments unfold?!?

Let me give you a few examples of games that might have raised an eyebrow last week, but would be considered full fledged "upsets" this week.

• West Virginia over Pitt is equivalent to a #4-5 getting a #1 in the Sweet 16
• Syracuse over UConn - ditto
• Oklahoma State over Oklahoma is equivalent to a 7 over 2, or even a 8 over 1 second round "stunner"
• Florida State over UNC is a classic #5 over #1 Sweet Sixteen "shocker"
• Temple over Xavier had all the makings of a #13 over #4 first rounder, or at least the typical #5-#12 tilt.

It's going to be a bumpy ride folk, just follow my Mom's advice (and group password), picktheprettyuniforms

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