Updating Your Portfolio (Pt 2)

OK, continuing on with the second half of the AP Poll:

#13 Clemson - BUY. If they had a different name on the front of the jersey; say "Duke" or "North Carolina" they'd be ranked sixth or seventh in the country. Right now the Tigers are 22-4, their only bad loss a slip up to Virginia. The other three are to Florida State, North Carolina and Wake. Their wins include Temple, Illinois, South Carolina, Miami, BC, Virginia Tech and an absolute undressing of Duke on national TV. This Tiger team is deep and experienced and a legitimate threat to make a run deep in the tourney this March.

#14 Arizona State - SELL. Is there a word more urgent than "sell"? "Dump" maybe? James Harden is great, but this is not a team with Elite 8 or Final Four make-up. They have some good wins this year; BYU, Arizona, and a sweep of UCLA. The don't have the depth or the battle-testedness (sic.) to be ready for the Big East and ACC boys come tourney time.

#15 Kansas - BUY. What's not to like? Bill Self lost nearly every contributor from his defending national championship squad, yet here we go again. The Jayhawks are an upset-win tomorrow night at Oklahoma from winning the Big 12 and catapulting into a #2 seed. Bill Self is on my short list for National Coach of the year, but he has had some help. Namely from big man Cole Alderich and lead guard Sharron Collins. All five of their losses are to team that will Dance (except a 1-pt loss to UMass) and most of the losses were early (understandable for a young team). In the meantime, they have racked up wins against Washington, Temple, Siena and Tennessee in addition to their 11-1 Big 12 record. Hard to believe, but the Jayhawks are back quicker than anyone expected.

#16 Xavier - BUY. The Muskies have hit a small mid season swoon, losing inexplicably to Charlotte and Duquesne. Perhaps X lost a little focus, but they remain a deep team with a handful of fearless, tourney-experienced veterans in tow. Consistent PG play continues to be a concern for the Muskies moving forward, as well as finding a consistent offensive go-to guy.

For their bad losses, they will likely be punished at least two seeding lines. Such is the life of a (apologies to Sean Miller) "mid-major"; losses are magnified, while big wins slide into the backdrop. Just to recap, this is the same team that has beaten Memphis, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, and LSU. Not many teams in the nation can boast a better quintet of non-conference wins.

#17 Gonzaga - HOLD. The Zags remain the most perplexing team in the nation; a "mid-major" conference school with the talent to win a national championship, yet they seem to go through extended lapses where they play listless and loose. Their most recent litmus test was a miserable failure, getting housed by Memphis in their final non-conference tune-up for March. If the Zags get it together, there is no reason Pargo, Heytvelt, Daye, Boldin and crew can't get to Detroit. However I don't think many people will be surprised if they are vanquished in the opening weekend.

#18 Illinois - HOLD. It is hard to take a team that has twice scored under 40 points in a regulation game too seriously...until you consider they only gave up 56 and 38 in those games respectively. Oh, and they are 22-4 in the rest of their games. The point is Illinois can lock it down on defense and when teams get nervous and start pulling the string a bit in the Big Dance, defense isn't going anywhere.

#19 Purdue - BUY. With an Alex Rodriguez/Barry Bonds sized asterisk. IF Robbie Hummel is healthy, the Boilers are my sleeper Final Four pick. Without him? The Boilers will be catching the early train home from the tourney. It isn't that Hummel carries the team, in fact, JuJuan Johnson has emerged inside as their best player and their guard play (Moore, Kramer and Grant) have been the key to their recent success. It is just the floor balance and intangibles that come with Hummel. They are a different team when he is on the floor and healthy.

#20 UCLA - HOLD. You can call me stubborn and it would be warranted, because the Bruins have done nothing to show they have the mettle to make a run to Detroit, but until they LOSE in March I'll keep the light on for 'em. Collison entered the season as an All-American candidate, but has faded far behind Meeks, Curry, Teague and Lawson in the discussion. As a matter of fact Jerel McNeil, Johnny Flynn, Nick Calathes...the list goes on and on, are ahead of Mr. Collison. But as more than a few NBA millionaires who never took off their warm-ups (see: Patrick O'Bryant) can tell you, redemption comes quick and sweet under the bright lights of March.

#21 Butler - HOLD. This is a Sweet-16 talented team. Much like Xavier above (whom Butler beat, by the way) they will take a seeding-beating for their two recent Horizon losses. However, Butler is disciplined, handles the ball well, defends aggressively on the perimeter and always has 4 guys on the floor who can stroke it from deep. It is tried and true formula for tourney success...just ask...well, Butler.

#22 Washington - SELL. Washington is a nice story, and well deserving of their #5 or #6 seed they will earn. That said, I'd be surprised if they play out of the first weekend.

#23 LSU - SELL!! The Tigers have become the media darlings of late. I even heard a CBS "studio analyst" offer his vote for National Coach of the Year for the "great job" turned in by Trent Johnson. Let's run though LSU's non-conference "big games" shall we? Losses: Xavier, Texas A&M, and Utah by 30. Wins: NONE. As in, their best non-conference wins are Alcorn State, Grambling State, LA Lafayette, McNeese State, Centenary and Washington State. Ok, Washington State is semi-legit, but the rest are laughable. I find it hard to believe the committee can reward the Tigers with anything better than an #8 seed for that gauntlet...

#24 Syracuse - HOLD. The Orange do not defend well enough to win games in March, but their talent level is Top 15 - Top 20 in the country. In a one and done format, it is hard to overlook their potential to get hot and make a run.

#25 Dayton - SELL. The win over Marquette early aides in the Flyers seeding, the upcoming tilt with Xavier will go a long way to determining whether the Flyers are in the 5-6 range or the 9-11 range. Either way, I don't see them advancing out of the first weekend.

So there you have it folks, the Maniac's fool proof stock report. Take that to your brackets and let it rip!

THREE MORE TEAMS TO BUY:
Siena, Florida State and Arizona

THREE MORE TO SELL:
Boston College, Utah, Ohio State

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