Naismith's Laws of Motion

It becomes popular fashion this time of year to hype up potential victories as "the one" that puts a team safely into the NCAA Tournament. For example, the Cincinnati v. West Virginia tilt tonight (with which I agree, a UC win should put them in good shape). The one that most raised my eyebrow is tonight's Memphis v. UAB contest.

Conventional hoops writer and blogger rhetoric says the Blazers MUST win tonight to make the tourney (agreed.) and that with a win over Memphis and a run to the conference tourney final (and loss to Memphis in the Final) and they are IN. It sure seems like that scenario would give them a respectable resume, but my question is, "Ok, so they are in. Who's OUT?"

And then it gets a whole lot tougher. If UAB wins tonight, do they move ahead of Providence (just beat Pitt)? Maryland (just beat UNC)? What about if Notre Dame gets UConn this Saturday and wins out? You see, sometimes it takes more than a win to get in...

In some circumstances, when two bubble teams collide, there is a ripple effect beyond the mere outcome of that single game. For example, Providence's win over Pitt puts Cincinnati in a real tough spot. Maryland knocking off Carolina and Boston College beating Duke makes things stickier for Virginia Tech.

There is no better example of this principle than in the Big Ten, where five teams sit legitimately perched on the bubble. They all play each other all over the place the next few weeks and it is a virtual certainty that at least three will get in; it is unlikely all five will.

So if your team is sitting on the bubble with any of these five, there are certain teams to root for as they go head to head. For example, Ohio State and Wisconsin boast the best resumes of the five - should they win their games (and subsequently batter Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State's chances) it is a good thing. Conversely, if Michigan and Penn State steal a few more wins, the likelihood of FOUR or FIVE spots going the Big Ten's way shrinks the remaining pool of 34.

Make sense?

In order for a team to be "IN" - someone else has to be OUT. Call it Naismith's Law of Motion. Every win has an equal and opposite loss.

Here is a quick checklist of teams to root against if you are feeling the bubble pressure:

Teams to Root Against (if your team is on the bubble)
Cincinnati, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Temple, UAB, Davidson*, Siena*, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Kansas State

* (Teams to begin rooting FOR come conference tourney time - eliminate all doubt!)

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