However, there is a team in the A-10 not listed on anyone's radar that makes a case every bit as compelling as Temple, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Texas A&M and San Diego State, Minnesota and a few others..
Let me introduce you to the Rhode Island Rams. The Rams are currently 21-8, (10-4) and in second place in the underrated Atlantic-10. On the Rams resume are wins over Penn State, Northeastern, VCU, Temple and Dayton. Their losses are all nearly all quality ones; Duke, Xavier, Villanova, Providence, St. Joes, Temple, and Richmond (bad loss). They have won 9 of their last 10, and finish with three winable games to get them to 24-8.
More acclaim should be trapping the Rams...Rhode Island raises perhaps the most interesting question for committee members; is it all wins, losses and RPI's or does HOW you played the game matter?
The Rams lost early at Cameron Indoor to the Top 10 Dukies 82-79. They had a shot at the buzzer to force overtime that didn't go in. Suffice it to say, not many non-conference foes come as close to leaving Cameron with a win as the Rams did. Two weeks later they suffered their only loss by more than six points, falling by 14 to Villanova. They lost at Providence by 1, at Oklahoma State by 4, at St. Joes by 6, to Xavier by a pair... every game they have played they were in right to the wire.
With the exception of Richmond and St. Joes, every loss was a well-played loss to a tourney-caliber ballclub.
Contrast that with some of the conventional bubble-mates low points:
Penn State, while playing in an admittedly more competitive Big Ten has only a non conference win over Georgia Tech to "brag" about. It is offset by losses to Temple and the aforementioned Rams.
Minnesota has the "signature win" over Louisville, but no other non-conference Top 100 wins. Their conference record is a pedestrian .500. They are 5-7 over their last 12 contests.
Cincinnati is now 8-7 in the mighty Big East, so it is hard to see them not dancing. They got their "signature win" last night over West Virginia (who is really close to back on the bubble at 8-7 in the BEast, but should be fine if they don't stumble to South Florida or DePaul).
Cincy's high points are the West Virginia win and solid wins over UAB and a 2-point win over UNLV. However an unbalanced schedule has aided their +.500 surge in conference. Their conference wins, aside from last night are: DePaul, Notre Dame, St John's (twice), Georgetown (twice) and Rutgers. Not exactly a murder's row.
However, it is not the wins, but rather the WAY they lost that should trouble the committee.
34 points pasting by Marquette, a pair of losses to bubble-mate Providence (by 8, and 9), Florida State by 11, Xavier at home by 10, Memphis by 15, Pitt by 16 and by 21 to Villanova.
So is it "quality losses" or the quality of the loss that matters? If you judge by the latter, it is hard to put the Bearcats ahead of the Rams.
Oklahoma State beat Rhode Island at home by 4 and boast a win over Siena. Their non-conference losses are respectable; Gonzaga by 12, Michigan State by 15 and Washington by 18. All three were on the road; something a mid-major knows all about. Notice how few of Rhode Islands win are at home? Exactly - none of the big boys are going there anytime soon. The Cowboys are 7-6 in the top-heavy Big 12, with their wins coming over Baylor, Texas Tech (twice), Texas A&M, Iowa State, Nebraska and Colorado. They will likely get a chance to determine their own fate as they finish the regular season against Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Speaking of Kansas State, their non-conference losses were an interesting lot, Kentucky (by 2), Iowa (2) and Oregon (5). It is possible all three are non-tourney invite losses. They have no non-conference wins over Top 100 teams. Their conference slate is similar to OK State - fatten up on the bottom and get full; were it not for the Missouri and Texas wins it is unlikely the Wildcats are even in the discussion.
For the record - the A-10 is not as strong a conference as the Big 12, you'll get no argument here. But using the eyeball test, are Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas Tech really any better than Temple, St. Joes, Rhode Island, Duquesne, and the middle of the A-10??
Will the Rams be Dancing in three weeks? Probably no; not unless they win the A-10 Tourney. Should they be? It really depends on how the chips fall. But they absolutely deserve to be in the discussion.
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