It's a down year in college hoops.
Pearl has lots of reasons for a "thumbs-down" but surprisingly his teams' play isn't one of them |
If Duke beats Michigan State on Wednesday, and I think they will, it isn't unreasonable to start the "can they run the table" conversation. They dismantled #3 Kansas State in Kansas City. Assuming they do similarly to Izzo's famously slow-starting Spartans, it is fair to assume Duke will be the prohibitive favorite in every game remaining on their schedule. Let's take a quick test....Close your eyes....
Is this Duke team in the same ballpark with 2009 North Carolina? How about the Heels in 05? Duke's 2001 team? Therein lies the bigger story. Its not that Duke is transcendentally great. It's that so few other teams are even good. Who is even close in the ACC? North Carolina? The Heels look closer to last year's NIT-status than they do Final Four contender. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech have looked awful, both losing to teams well outside of the Top 100. Clemson? Their overtime turnover/bad shot-apalooza against Seton Hall could have set back basketball twenty years if only Cal hadn't beaten them to the punch. Florida State? In their first game against a reasonable opponent they lost to Florida (who was emasculated in their opener by Ohio State), scoring only 51 points in the process.
Boston College could make the claim as the only non-Duke bright spot thus far in the ACC, claiming third place in the "Old Diaper." In truth, Boston College might actually be the best example of the glaring parity of mediocrity that plagues the ACC. This is an Eagle team that has already lost games to Wisconsin (good loss) and YALE! (um...not a good loss). Glancing over that field, is it unreasonable to think Duke could run the table? It's really not...
It's not just the ACC. All around college basketball supposed power teams from power leagues are losing to the little guys. It happens a few times every season and at least once or twice in March; the difference this year is that the little guys aren't very good! Look, dropping a ball game to the Wichita State's and Murray State's of the world is no shame; those are good ballclubs. Losing to Yale, Stetson (Wake Forest), Rutgers (Miami) or Kennesaw State (GA Tech) is.
Things aren't much better in the SEC. Tennessee has been an early bright spot, winning the NIT by triumphing over a very good VCU team and a good Villanova squad (they also have quieter solid wins over Chattanooga, Belmont and Missouri State - kudos to Pearl for scheduling three "no-names" with good teams). Vandy looks solid as well, with a good win over UNC and a very solid three-point loss to West Virginia.
OK, enough with the good. Georgia, the trendy darling of the SEC coming into the season has disappointed, losing ugly games to Notre Dame and Temple. Neither loss is shameful, it is their wins that raise a curious eyebrow after beating terrible Mississippi Valley State and Manhattan teams by only two and three points respectively. Alabama and Auburn have contributed losses to Iowa, St. Peters, NC Ashville, Samford and Jacksonville. Not to be outdone, LSU laid a nine-point loss stinkbomb to traditional powerhouse Nicholls State.
These are some pretty mediocre returns, and we haven't even dipped our toe into the murky pond of Pac-10 basketball or the abominable bottom half of the Big East.
The point is this; trying to handicap this season will be a near impossibility. Teams #5 through #75 are as close as they have been in my recent memory. Even good teams in 2010 are very flawed. This season is going to be an absolute free-for-all. We need to eliminate the terms "shock" and "upset" from the vocabulary for a while (I actually saw "Temple stunned by Cal" on a national sports website I will leave nameless...) and just enjoy the season for what it is. Call it "parity" or call it "mediocrity" by March it will all sort itself out in three glorious weeks. Until then, if I was a wagering man, I'd bet the under...
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