The reason being, tonight's game is absolutely enormous in shaping the destiny and "to-do list" for each of the teams in regards to earning a ticket to the Dance.
Richmond, on paper, seemed to be the slight favorite about a month before heading into conference play - narrowly edging out Temple, well ahead of Dayton and Xavier with Duquesne nowhere on the radar. Just a short month later, it's the Spiders who find themselves in the tangled web of bubble-dwelling status, having balanced their wins over VCU, Seton Hall and Purdue with equally bad losses to Bucknell and Georgia Tech.
Dayton entered this season with similarly high hopes, fresh off last season's NIT Championship, and returning their electric scoring combo guard, Chris Wright. However the Flyers, despite having the same record as RIchmond find themselves well on the outside of the bubble. They lack a true quality win (Seton Hall, George Mason and New Mexico are their three best wins), and each time they have faced a top-level opponent they have gotten embarassed. Their early season 68-34 drubbing by Cincinnati the most jarring.
A win tonight at home would solve two of Dayton's big problems; they'd earn a quality win and they'd remain in the A-10 regular season race. The conference, as good as it is, will not be sending their fifth or sixth place teams to the tourney as at-large bid recipients. Particularly if they are as devoid of a marquee win as are the Flyers.
Tonight's game is huge in the jostling for position that will take place the next six weeks. Richmond, at 4-1, enters trailing only Xavier and Duquesne (5-0), with opportunities to play both at home without having to go on the road to return the favor. As long as they remain close, you have to like the Spiders' odds.
Dayton on the other hand has already lost to Xavier, and still has a home & home with Duquesne remaining. They will control their destiny somewhat, but falling to 3-3 and two full games behind the Spiders (plus losing the tie breaker) will likely be too much to overcome.
I honestly think both of these teams are NCAA-quality; certainly as much as any third place team from the ACC or Pac 10, however hostory shows us no more than three A-10 schools are dancing, no matter how rosy Lunardi's outlook appears in early February (he had SIX going last year...ooops).
I like Dayton at home tonight, earning a win that makes this conference one of the nation's most interesting in the final five weeks of the season - every bit as clogged at the top as the Big Ten and Big 12, only with a lot more on the line, because all five or six WON'T be getting to the Tourney.
Maniac's Pick: Dayton -2
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| Dayton is going to need a big performance from the team, and their home crowd. |
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