The "year of the mid-major" is dead. It has been a long time since the college hoops landscape was as devoid of legitimate Final Four contenders outside the BCS leagues as it appears this season. Even the "don't call us MID" major crowd has taken seismic steps backwards.
The Butler Bulldogs played Hickory Huskers for the nation Hoosier's dreams to within a soft bounce of a national championship last April. Six scant months later the Bulldogs are closer to needing to win the Horizon league to make the tourney than they are to playing in any Final Fours. They opened the season getting pummeled by a less-than-great Louisville squad. Pitino might coach them up satisfactorily in this season of insane parity, but my earliest instincts tell me the Cards are headed for the NIT. Today, Butler lost at home. To MVC bottom tier Evansville. Prior to heading to Hinkle, the Purple Aces suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State. Ouch.
The road doesn't get easier for Butler anytime soon. Before seeking refuge in Horizon league play, Brad Stevens' Bulldogs still have to travel to Duke and Xavier. At this point, even home games with Stanford and Utah seem less than automatic.
Speaking of Xavier, the Muskies entered the season joining Michigan State as the only schools in the country who have made the past three Sweet Sixteens. Early indications are the Muskies won't be making it four. The season began with a dramatic comeback win over Western Michigan and an overtime tussle with the Mastadons of IPFW. Xavier finished the Cancun Classic with two wins (over Iowa and Seton Hall, two bottom tier BCS'ers) before getting handled with relative ease by Old Dominion.
Granted ODU has the talent to return the the tourney for the second straight year, but the lopsided loss was just another example of how much early entries (Derrick Brown and Jordan Crawford) have finally caught up with their program. With the possible exception of Gonzaga, no other mid-major is faced with the common legitimate possibility of losing players early to the professional ranks. For Xavier, the defection of Crawford left a gaping offensive void they have yet to figure out how to replenish. Junior point guard Tu Holloway has played as well as any lead guard in the country other than Kemba Walker, but someone else is going to have to help shoulder the load if the Muskies have any chance of being a solid tourney team.
If Butler's schedule is daunting, then Xavier's is murderous. In addition to hosting Butler, the Muskies play Wofford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida and Cincinnati before taking on a solid A-10 schedule featuring Temple, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island.
If 2006 was the mid-major high water mark, with at large bids flooding in from the Missouri Valley, C-USA, Colonial and others, 2010 might the drought. Despite a clearly level landscape outside of 8-10 teams this year, very few of the mid-majors have been able to stack those early season chips that are so vital come selection Sunday.
Here's a quick breakdown of some of the hopefuls and their early season returns through Thanksgiving.
Conference USA
Memphis - Perhaps the only lock on the list. Right now the Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Miami and LSU. They still get cracks at Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas this year to notch another "good win" to add to their profile. After last year's rare anomaly the Tigers are once again clearly the class of the league.
Tourney Outlook: Near Lock
Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are as good as they have been in a long time, starting 3-0 with wins over South Florida and South Alabama. The problem might be their strength of schedule. With only games at Mississippi and Cal to boost their profile they better get at least one of two versus Memphis in addition to avoiding more than one or two bad losses
Tourney Outlook: Possible
UCF - Don't look now, but the Knights are off to a 5-0 start after beating instate foe South Florida last week. With games against Florida, Miami, and UMass the Knights get several shots at some good wins. Same as above with Southern Miss, only even more important, the Knights really need to get one against Memphis to get a second galnce.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: UAB, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa
Metro Atlantic:
Siena - The Saints have been March darlings the past few seasons. To recapture the magic they will likely need to win their league tourney this year. At 2-3, with losses to Vermont (ouch), Butler and Minnesota, the Saints already fanned on their best chances at capturing a profile win.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: None
Colonial:
VCU - Shaka Smart's team is in decent position to earn an at-large bid if they can handle their business inside league play. At 4-1 with wins over Wake Forest and UCLA and a competitive loss to Tennessee their early profile is solid. They have interesting separation games with Wofford and UAB on their schedule before entering league play. This is a good ball club who should win 21-23 games, and earn a bid.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Old Dominion - The Monarchs won their tournament over in Cancun, albeit over a field that sounded better than it is. The wins over Clemson and Xavier should prove valuable chips, and the narrow home-loss to Georgetown might actually help more than it hurts. They get three more good chances; Richmond, Dayton and Missouri will add some strength to the Monarchs' schedule. Grab two of those three and it's hard not to see ODU going back to the Dance.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Others to Watch: George Mason, James Madison,
MAC: Long gone are the conferences glory days, Miami (OH) and Kent State crashing the Sweet 16 and the MAC meriting the occassional at-large bid. Their aren't many challengers this year either, though Kent State at 6-1 with games upcoming Florida, USF, James Madison and UAB they could play their way into the discussion if they can take all four (especially the Florida game).
At-Large Outlook: Doubtful
Others to Watch: None
Missouri Valley: Remember in 2006 when the MVC sent four teams to the dance? Yeah, so does the Valley. They remember it with a wistful smile and a distant gaze... those days seem pretty far away. Granted Northern Iowa captured the nation's fancy after their stunning upset over Kansas, but with perennial dancer Creighton slumping and Wichita State being left on the the chopping block it was yet another one-bid year for the MVC.
Prospects look a little brighter this year, but no one is a clear lock.
Creighton: We'll find out soon. The three-point loss to Iowa State might up being worse than they thought and their four wins are pretty pedestrian. They need to sweep their upcoming contests with Northwestern, Nebraska, BYU and St. Joseph's to merit any consideration.
At-Large Outlook: Murky
Wichita State: Their 3-point loss to UConn might wind up being more valuable than some of their wins when the selection committee starts weighing resumes. They get shots at Tulsa, LSU and a tough trip to San Diego State to prove their mettle. Their schedule won't do them a ton of favors, but winning those aforementioned games will at least get them in the discussion paired with a good conference record.
At-Large Outlook: Decent
Others to Watch: Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Mountain West: This is easily the best non-BCS conference in the country. One could make a pretty compelling argument that the MWC is stronger than the Pac-10 this season. San Diego State is a near lock for the tourney, and I'd be very surprised if UNLV and BYU don't dance as well. New Mexico's eyebrow-raising 25 point loss to Cal (who subsequently lost to Notre Dame in a game they scored FIVE points in a half) drops them from the "likely" pile and into "others to watch"
At-Large Outlooks: SDSU - near lock; UNLV - very solid; BYU - very good
Others to Watch: Utah, New Mexico
Atlantic-10: The mid-major darling de jour might take a small step back this year. Xavier shows real signs of offensive struggles. Combined with a daunting schedule and the Muskies might be sweating Selection Sunday for the first time in five years. Dayton and Temple have the talent to make it out of the first week of the tourney, but haven't put it on full display quite yet. Richmond and Rhode Island look to build on last season's progress while St. Joes and UMass look to restore former glory.
All in all, this is a good, competitive league that should get at least 3 bids in March, however who those three bids go to will be quite a scramble. We'll do a complete A-10 Breakdown in a separate article.
This is shaping up early as a year in which a TON of bids will be up for the taking. Doing a quick rundown of the Big 6 conferences, I count only thirteen LOCKS, with most of leagues being a complete mess from second or third all the way down to ninth or tenth. That means there are some bids for the grabbing.
It remains to be seen if the little guys hands will be quicker than the giants.
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