Bracketeering - November 22nd, 2009 WEEK ONE

Let's Get Rolling towards Indy...

Ah...there is nothing like the erratic madness of early season tournaments to make for a complex first edition of Bracketeering. There are a ton of questions left to be answered; but very few teams appear to be waiting until conference play to ask them (ahem, Notre Dame - even the Hoyas are playing a reasonable pre-conference slate...how the BEast has grown) . One reason early season college hoops remains wonderful is the bevy of teams willing to challenge themselves early and often.

Not that it always works to their immediate advantage. Cal would certainly have been among the first sixteen squads had Bracketeering run a pre-tip edition. After getting handled easily by both Syracuse and Ohio State is hard to rank them even among the Top 25. Suffice it to say this doesn't bode well for the remainder of the Pac-10. Likewise for the Atlantic 10's banner carrier, Dayton. After a solid win over Georgia Tech in the AM in Puerto Rico, the Flyers looked like they needed to catch up on sleep getting subsequently beaten by Villanova and Kansas State (both by double digits). Neither one is a "bad" loss per se; but both are games the Flyers will wish they had in the other column when they are thrown up on the Big Board in March. An early season pair of losses in no way eliminates a team; in hoops the NCAA gets it right and lets teams actually PLAY for a title. But those losses are the difference between a 4-5 and a 7-8 come March...

A few good wins early can also buoy a conference to dizzying seed heights. Take Syracuse for example. Picked sixth in the conference in a coaches' preseason poll, the Orange dismantled both Cal and vaunted UNC in the Garden on National TV. If there are five better teams in the country than the Orange, the Maniac hasn't seen them play yet. Add in a Villanova title in Puerto Rico, despite not playing their best ball, and it is hard to argue that the Big East has slipped a bit. In fact (blasphemy alert!) from top to bottom, this year's sixteen might actually be better than the year before...

That said, lets get to the season's inaugural edition of Bracketeering.

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - This one is as much on what they can be as what they are. The Horns get a tune-up tonight with a dreadful Iowa squad, then likely get Pitt tomorrow night. They are still several weeks away from the real brutal test of North Carolina and Michigan State back to back. That's probably a good thing for the Horns who are still working in an infusion of freshman talent. Their backcourt is so so so deep that Florida transfer Jai Lucas may not be able to find any minutes when he becomes eligible. Folks, that's a pretty good problem to have. I'll bet you Billy D would welcome him home with open arms...

2. Syracuse- Knee jerk reaction? Quite possibly, but we like to mix performance and potential here at MarchManiacs.com, and is hard to argue with either on the Orange. Transfer Wesley Johnson immediately put himself in the short National POY list with his scintillating show in MSG against Carolina. They are big and bruising inside, have veteran floor leadership and deadly outside shooting with Routins, and their zone is still as baffling for opponents as it ever was. Honestly, this team doesn't appear to have a definitive weakness. Um, other than playing man-to-man (says Lemoine...).

Think Iowa State would like this guy back???

3. Kansas- The reason they are #1 in the country is because last April we decided they were #1 in the country. I reluctantly placed them at #3. Collins and Alderige are both great college players and the addition of Xavier Henry seems to make them the favorite. I am still not convinced Collins is enough of a distributor to make benefit of the additional offensive firepower. The good news is they have three weeks of de facto scrimmages to figure it out before tussling with Michigan, Cal, and Tennessee before embarking on Big 12 play.

4. Kentucky - An awkward start, admittedly, has scared off few. Rather than the closer-than-expected wins over Miami (OH) and Sam Houston St, look at yesterday's dismantling of Rider. It is only a matter of time until this team learns to play together. Once they do, it will be hard to not to see them as the best team in the country. When they play UNC on December 5th there will be no fewer than 10 NBA players in uniform. Hell, the Nets v. Knicks game Saturday wished they could boast the same!


ELITE EIGHT:

5. North Carolina - You can view the lopsided loss to the 'Cuse one of two ways; a sign of trouble, or a beacon of optimism. The polls will surely knock them out of the Top 10, but despite the loss, the Maniac went away wowed by the potential of the Heels. Their frontcourt is simply spectacular. Their potential ability to defend is as high as any team that has played in Chapel Hill. They do not have a firm grasp on where the ball needs to go on offense, which is understandable. They lost 4 starters of last year's national championship winning edition. You'd expect them to miss a beat or two. Consider the 'Cuse loss the small blip. Now, onto the business of winning the ACC,

6. Duke - but of course, the Dukies have something to say about that as well. It is hard to envision this year's bigger Devils having anything resembling the fleetness of foot to stay with the Heels. At the same time, it is hard to imagine the Heels guards being able to solve Duke's fierce man-to-man trapping defense. Watching Duke play inferior competition, it was hard to get a true confidence they are the best team in the ACC. Seeing Carolina lose big was oddly more impressive than seeing Duke win big.

I'm hoping for a UConn matchup in the Pre-Season NIT to get a nice gauge of this team's athleticism and ability to trap and pressure the ball. Other than that, a game versus Gonzaga (unranked, but not sure WHY) and Wisconsin are the few tests for the Devils in an unusually light pre-ACC lineup.

7. Butler - Why not the Bulldogs? Pollsters are enamored with teams that did adequately the year before and return the entire lineup (see: Purdue). The Bulldogs are bigger and more athletic than most folks realize. This ranking might be a tad too high, but we will get to find out for sure after Butler takes in Minnesota (and possibly Clemson and West Virginia), Georgetown, Ohio State and Xavier. No team in the country schedules more aggressively with more to gain and lose than the Bulldogs (Bulldogs, as in both Butler and Gonzaga...). The early season results can swing them from a #2 seed all the way to a #9-10 in March. Yeah, these games mean that much.

8. Michigan St.- Maybe a little low, but we will know more clearly next Tuesday when they lock horns with UNC. Izzo's Spartans are hoping it is a little more entertaining than last year's two matchups.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. - Villanova - Winning three games over likely tourney teams (yes, George Mason is a likely tourney team, haven't seen ODU or VCU, but the Patriots looked legit to me) should be more of a positive. I just wasn't that impressed with the Cats, but those three wins will certainly help the resume come March.

10. Purdue - Not ready to overlook last year's mediocre performance with essentially the same squad, BUT there are two reasons for Final Four optimism in Lafeyette. One, Robbie Hummel appears to be healthy. When he is, the Boilers are usually victorious. Secondly, JuJuan Johnson improved as much as any big in the country last year. If he does likewise in his junior season, he is a darkhorse Big Ten POY candidate, and the Boilers are a Top 5 team.

The injury to PG Lewis Jackson is real cause for concern though, and will make tonight's test against Tennessee a stern one.

11. Tennessee - Speaking of the Vols, one of the finest guard tandems in the country with Hopson and Smith will be on display tonight as the Vols try to use their superior athleticism to get past Purdue. Tennessee has been electric so far in 2009; let's see if it holds against an elite caliber team.

12. Gonzaga - Yes, I know they are unranked. Yes, I know they lost to Michigan State. The Maniac values good early season losses more than useless early season wins, and I haven't seen a better played loss than the one the Zags suffered to the Spartans. Matt Boldin might be the most cerebral floor leader in the nation, and the young bigs are loaded with athleticism to make up for the losses of Heyvelt and Daye. The writers claiming Portland will be a stiff test in the WCC are just looking for something to write...

13. Ohio State - Evan Turner. Forget the turnover fest against the Heels. Did the see the way he eviscerated Cal's "All American" caliber backcourt? There is no better player in the country. They could use a little more help inside, but unfortunately it won't get here until 2010. Until it does, simply enjoy the most versatile swing man in the country.

14. West Virginia - Hard to tell so far, but the Maniac gives the Big East coaches the nod here. If everyone thinks they are clearly better than Syracuse and Louisville and Georgetown, we will acquiesce for now and have them slotted.

15. UConn - Same logic as above. Really hoping for a Duke game in the Pre-NIT.

16. Xavier - Homer pick? Fine. Every year, same story; Muskies start unranked, rack up early wins over quality foes, finish year near the Top Ten. I can't fathom how SI has them picked for an NIT bid... Big games in the next four weeks include: Marquette (and possibly Florida State and Michigan) Cincinnati, Kansas State, Butler, LSU and Wake Forest. No one ever accuses the nation's most overlooked program of ducking.

Closing In...
Washington (punished for Cal - sorry guys), Miami (FL), Michigan, Clemson, Creighton, Kansas St, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Louisville, Georgetown, Memphis, Minnesota, Tulsa, Illinois,

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Northern Colorado (wins over Hawaii, Air Force are eye catching), Siena, George Mason, Ole Miss, UCF, Cornell, Florida, Notre Dame, Utah St, Pitt, Temple, Old Dominion, New Mexico, Murray State, Missouri State

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