Singelton's Injury a Brutal Blow to the 'Noles Tourney Aspirations

Can the Noles survive his loss?
This isn't how you'd like the bubble picture to gain some clarity.

However, when Florida State's Chris Singelton went down today, so too might have the Noles teetering tourney dreams.  The swingman led FSU in points, rebounds and steals.   With his season-ending injury, an already suspect offense becomes downright decimated.

So too, unfortunatly for Nole fans, might be FSU's chances to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

Despite Singelton's injury, they were able to hang on to an absolutely vital win, edging Virginia at home 63-56.  At 18-7 (8-3), FSU was edging towards "lock" status as the solid third team from the ACC, and leaving a four team pack including Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Boston College to jockey for two - possible even only ONE invitation.  However today's season-changing injury muddies the waters a bit.

It will be interesting to see how Florida State plays in their final five regular season games, as well as the ACC Tourney.  Don't forget the huge penalty the Committee levied Purdue last season after Robbie Hummel's injury - dropping them from a likely #2 seed all the way down to a #4.  Well, if Florida State's resume merited a ten or an eleven... by extension  of that logic, are they now in the NIT??

Their final five games are as follows: @Wake, @Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, @NC State.  Win three of five and all is well.  Drop three of five, and lose in the opening round of the ACC Tourney, and it is a likely NIT free-fall for Florida State.

Colonial Duel - Will Both End Up Standing??

Very, very, VERY under the radar, the most important game played in college basketball today took place in Richmond, Virginia in the always tourney-dangerous Colonial League.  Old Dominion captured an enormous win at Virginia Commonwealth to pull to within a game of VCU and George Mason for the conference lead.  More importantly, by earning the season split they are now easily ahead of the Rams in the at-large pecking order.

All three team now sit squarely on 20 wins, and all three are worthy of at-large invitations.  However, conference perceptions being what they are, MOST sites project only two CAA teams earning a bid.  That makes today's road win for Old Dominion the most important and influential win on a packed Saturday slate of games.

Old Dominion moved to 11-4 in conference, and 20-6 overall.  The Monarchs own wins over Xavier, Clemson, Richmond, and Dayton, as well as splits with conference mates VCU and George Mason.  Two of their other six losses were at Georgetown and Missouri.  They have only two bad losses; Delaware and Drexel (and Drexel also beat Louisville at Louisville this season).

VCU has fared well against a challenging slate as well, knocking off UCLA, but losing to Tennessee, UCLA, UAB and Richmond, as well as a bad loss to South Florida.  They are a game ahead of ODU in conference play at 12-3 (20-7 overall), but have yet to play George Mason.  Those two square off Tuesday in yet another enormous game, as the loser slides into a second place tie with ODU - and neither can boast the out of conference scalps the Monarch carry into Selection Sunday.

I didn't have a chance to watch the ODU/VCU game today - so here's a couple good links for a game recap.

http://www.odusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021211aaa.html
http://bleacherreport.com/old-dominion-basketball

enjoy!

In the End, It's How You Play at the End

The NCAA Tournament is less about talent that nearly any analyst or fans realizes.  Most seasons, outside of five or six teams at the top and fourteen or sixteen teams at the bottom - the talent is pretty even.  The difference that separates the Sweet and Elite from the meat?  How you handle crisis, and how you function in end-game situations.

This is the precise and exact reason why the humble Maniac can already give you teams that are going to be upset prone and teams that will likely outplay their seed this March.  It isn't so much about the stats, but how you execute in situations where the difference between winning and losing is just a few scant possessions.

Some call it coaching, and I agree coaching is part of it, but another big part of it is in your player's DNA.  It's in your player's brains.  You can't fake cool and you can't fake smart when the bright lights start their One Shining Moment.

This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'.  Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play?  By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four.  It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! 

This is an excellent example of the AAU-style play that is prevalent this season in the SEC.  Poor ball movement, terrible end-game execution, lousy foul shooting and a poor understanding of score and situation.

I can't see any SEC teams making a real run at the Final Four.  With the exception of Vandy; all the teams simply play too dumb.

Contrast that with the exceptionally high caliber of basketball currently being played in the Big Ten and Big East.  The way Wisconsin and Ohio State both had complete control of score and situation - as well as never missed any clutch free throws, is a hallmark of two teams ready for March.  Ditto for Purdue.  There aren't many teams in the country I would feel more comfortable coaching than Purdue if I needed a bucket late. Purdue's two-man game of E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson, not just their scoring ability but the senior smarts make them a likely candidate for a deep March run.  Purdue's point guard play is a little less solid than their two aforementioned conference mates, but is still a squad with the poise, talent and smarts to make a run to the Final Four.

Is there any conference whose top teams will be more battle-tested than the Big East?   Nearly every game is an intense slug-fest between the top eleven (maybe ten, has Cincinnati really challenged many top teams??) teams this season.  Pitt and Villanova are two of the toughest teams in the nation.  Louisville has shown several occasions that they are capable of late heroics.  Georgetown and their spectacular backcourt are exactly what one looks for when filling out their brackets, and I have not seen any team in the country that shares the ball with the unselfishness of Notre Dame. 

The Big East will likely have six or seven teams receive Top 4 seeds, and frankly I could see any one of them, with the exception of UConn, making a run to the Final Four.

We will have a nice Monday afternoon Bracketeering Bubble Busting Edition - but for now, here's a quick list of stock up and stock downs from the Maniac's humble vantage point...

Stock Up (March BUYS):
Ohio State
Villanova
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
Duke
Georgetown
San Diego State

Stock Down (March SELLS):
Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas State
UConn
Minnesota
Florida
Washington
Richmond (if they make it...)



HOLDS (Still getting a final read)
BYU -  (Yes, I have Jimmer-mania... but do they have enough help?  Can you box & one them and get the upset?)
Texas - (remind me a ton of Memphis 2008-09 - is that good or bad?)
Kansas - (hard not to like them, I've just seen them at their worst - USC, UCLA, Texas...)
Illinois - (McCammey needs to distribute AND score, not just the latter)
Vanderbilt - (smart, balanced - are the strong enough at point?)
Pitt - (can they score enough points?)
Louisville - (they've looked really good...but are they really good?)
North Carolina - (impressive over the last month, do they shoot well enough to advance deep?)

We Waited for This? End Game Confusion Dooms Vols to Loss #10

The logic for Tennessee was, hold the rope until Coach Pearl returns, then finish with a second-half flurry once Coach returned...

So much for logic.  With the game on the line, Coach Pearl strangely elected to let his team play.  In their jumbled confusion and panic, they may have put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy.

Tennessee had a chance to extend to a three point lead, but continued their dismal foul shooting and missed the front end of a crucial one-and-one.  Florida rebounded, got the outlet pass to Erving Walker, and the smallest man on the floor made the biggest play of the night.  Walker raced all the way down the floor, Tyus Edney-stlye, and scored a driving layup to give the Gators a 61-60 lead with 14.7 seconds remaining.

Tennessee looked shaky inbounding the ball and advancing it into the front court.  They appeared to be confused as to what set they wanted to run and whether or not a screen was to be set or waived off.  However, with two timeouts left in his pocket, Pearl elected to do nothing.  The last possession result ended up being a Melvin Going's step-back contested three pointer that clanged harmlessly away from the rim and sealed the Vols doom.

I agree Coach - Just call the TIMEOUT!!
The win, coupled with the Kentucky loss today, all but seals up the SEC East for the Gators at 9-2 and everyone else at least two games back in the loss column, plus the tiebreak edge from head-to-head wins.

For Tennessee, it is loss #10 - and right back balancing precariously on the bubble.  It is a particualrly tough loss to swallow, failing to get off a quality last second shot with timeouts in their pocket, and never getting the ball in the hands of their best shooter and scorer, Scotty Hopson.

The Vols now face near must-win games in their next two home games, against South Carolina and Georgia.  They own some simply fantastic non-conference wins; VCU, Missouri State and more importantly, Pitt and Villanova.  However, they have now lost three straight, have ten losses overall and are only 5-5 in the good, but certainly not great, SEC.

For the Gators, the win keeps them locked in to win the SEC, and continue their march towards being the Top 4 seed that every analysts picks to be upset in Round One.

Winners & Losers

A win is a win is a win.  There's some classic coach-speak for ya' on an action packed Saturday afternoon.  But sometimes a team can prove their mettle in a loss as well.

Such was the case for two teams this week.

Ohio State is no longer unbeaten, having fallen 71-67 at Wisconsin in what was, in the Maniac's humble opinion, the best played game in college basketball this season.  Ohio State looked like the were going to put Bucky away early in the second half, as freshman point guard Aaron Craft and junior swingman William Buford spearheaded the Buckeye offensive explosion.  The lead swelled to 42-30 before Wisconsin and the Krazy Kohl Center roared back.

In the Big Ten, most of the Player of the Year discussion circles around Jared Sullinger and JuJuan Johnson.  A few people made a case (well deserved) for John Lauer as well, but today Jordan Taylor threw his name in the hat as well.  The Wisconsin point guard was absolutely unconscious in the second half, scoring 22 of his game high 28 points, many of which came during Wisconsin's 17-2 run to reclaim the lead with about 7:00 remaining.

Yes, Ohio State lost, but they lost in a place where Bo Ryan has lost only 11 times in as many years.  That comes out to a winning percentage of around 94% despite playing in one of the deepest and balanced conferences every season.  Quite simply, no one wins in the Kohl Center - but the Buckeye's came darn close.

The impressive thing to take away from today's game if you are an Ohio State fan is the way they managed the final 2:00, trialing by six points.  They never panicked - they got three consecutive stops and rather than burning a lot of clock on the offensive end or jacking up a contested three pointer, the Buckeyes went straight to the basket, drew two hard fouls and stepped up to the line and knocked in four consecutive foul shots (two by Diebler, two by Sullinger).  That is the kind of poise it takes to survive and advance in March.

The other thing to take away - Wisconsin absolutely shot the lights out in the second half.  The final dagger was a three ball from the top of the key from Bruesewitz, a six-ten forward/shooter who the Buckeye's failed to rotate over to, fearing leaving open the sizzling Jordan Taylor.  It was that kind of day for Wisconsin, who shot 12 of 24 from behind the arc.

Both teams are legit Final Four threats, and if you are an OSU fan, there is little to be disappointed about today.  The Buckeyes defended very well, Wisconsin, very similarly to Notre Dame, just fills the floor with very tall shooters, each having three or four guys over 6'8'' who can hit from behind the arc.  A well played game on both sides, and I walked away feeling more confident in Ohio State's chances to go to the Final Four as opposed to less...

Another "winner" from a losing result was North Carolina's performance Wednesday night in Durham.  Yes, the Tarheels are kicking themselves after squandering a 14-point halftime lead and failing to finish off the Blue Devils, but in the defeat Carolina displayed some qualities that had eluded them last season during their struggles.

First of all, this team passes the ball and handles ball pressure far better than last season.  They feed the post, taking advantage of Tyler Zeller's size and touch around the basket.  It isn't so much that Zeller is leaps and bounds better than last season; it's the absence of Drew and Graves, and the influx of ball movement and passing that have made the demonstrable difference.

Carolina follwed up their excellent Wednesday performance with an enormous win today at Clemson to move to 8-2 in ACC play.  Most mock brackets have them "in" but not a lock; I respectfully disagree.  Carolina's play this week moves them firmly IN, and a Top 4 seed as of today.

It's February, and as any coach will tell you, a win is a win is a win; but astute fans can take away a lot of confidence from Ohio State and North Carolina's losses.