The Fab Forty Five - Feb 10th, 2011

The Maniac has a slightly different way of looking at the NCAA Tournament field than a lot of the other Bracketologists, Bubble-ologyists, Bracket Analysts, etc.  Rather than looking at the bubble teams independantly and comparing them historically to previous year's fields to make projections, we focus more on how many slots are available and who exactly is jockeying for them.

Here is a quick rundown of the math: In 2011 the field is expanding to 68 teams.  There are 31 conferences with automatic bids (30 conference tournaments and the Ivy, who instead sends their regular season champ).  Simple math leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs.  Normal bracket math focuses on those 37 slots, and plays some guesswork with who might "steal" a bid from one of the lesser conferences by winning the conference tournament and taking a slot from some otherwise deserving team.

Let's all assume together that the six BCS league tournaments will likely be won by a team that was going to the tournament anyhow.  I know on rare occassions someone sneaks up out of nowhere (most recently in the SEC with Georgia in 08 and Mississippi State in 09), but it happens very infrequently.  Let's also go on a limb and assume that the A-10 and Mountain West will also be won by a team already on safe ground.

Adding those eight conference bids back into the pool gives us 45 slots available.  Focusing on being inside that 45 will nearly automatically guarantee entree' into the Dance.  It is possible that a few additional bids will creep into the mix; for example if Utah State (who is IN) wins the WAC Tournament for example.  But anything inside of the Fab Fo' Five and a team should be safe.

Here's The Maniac's Fab Fo' Five as of February 10th:

LOCKS (21):  These are teams that are IN barring an absolutely ludicrous late season collapse. For that reason, we are being very judicious with inclusion; for example, teams like Washington, St. Mary's and Vanderbilt shouldn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday, but still have a little work to do before sliding into the absolute LOCK category.

Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Xavier, San Diego St, BYU.

This leaves 24 bids remaining in the at-large pile.  Our second group is for teams knocking on the door that still have some work to do before exhaling.

GOOD SHAPE (12): These teams would be IN today, but still need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to feel safe.  The final three teams (St. Mary's, Wichita State and Utah State could help out fellow bubble-sitters by winning their conference tourneys and adding a bid back into the pile)

Temple, West Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, George Mason, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Utah State

BUBBLE (17):  We are now left with just twelve bids remaining and a lot of teams with a good case to be made.  Everyone on this list is one loss away from falling out, with plenty of teams waiting to replace them.  You'll notice 17 teams in this category; obviously five of them are on the outside looking in - those five I will purposely list last.

Virginia Tech, Florida State, Richmond, Marquette, St. John's, Memphis, Kansas State, UCLA, Texas A&M, VCU, UCLA, Georgia, Southern Miss, Missouri State, Butler, Cincinnati, Old Dominion

WAITING IN THE WINGS (11):  These are teams I have OUT as of today - but certainly can creep back in the mix with a strong finish and some wins over conference teams slotted ahead of them currently.

Maryland, Clemson, Boston College, Duquesne, Colorado, Michigan State, UTEP, Washington State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

BURIED, BUT NOT (OFFICIALLY) DEAD:  Here's some long, long shots that are going to need an unbelievable finish (like running the table) to jump back in the mix

Dayton, Nebraska, Michigan, Princeton (should win Ivy), Colorado State, Drexel, SMU, New Mexico, Alabama, South Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, Arkansas, Mississippi State

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

.

The Battle of Who Could Care Less

A good shout out to The Ben Folds Five... and an appropriate label for at least 50% of tonight's Memphis at UCF Conference USA battle.

To the best of my non-research aided recollection, UCF has a unique opportunity to be the first team in Division I history to both be ranked in the Top 25 and eventually finish 14th or worse inside their conference in the same season.  Tonight is yet another likely step for the Knights to solidify their historic achievement.

Four weeks ago?  This date was circled on the calendar; the battle for first place in Conference USA - a game not just to slug out who would win the league but also for jockeying for seeding position in the Big Dance.

Seven straight losses later, including a pair to East Carolina and a loss to Rice, Donnie Jones has to be wondering, 'will we ever win another game?'  To hell with 'can we still reach the NIT?'  He is trying to stave off one of the most bizarre and disappointing plumetts in recent college basketball history.

For Memphis, this game still matters a lot.  The Tigers didn't do themselves and favors dropping back to back games to Marshall and Tulsa, however their 62-58 win over likewise reeling Gonzaga was an enormous win, placing them right back on the precarious bubble.  The Tigers enter at 17-6, and having played an excellent non-conference schedule.  However at 5-3, they are tied with SMU for fifth place in Conference USA; not exactly something that endears a team in the Committee's eyes come Selection Sunday.

Memphis still has an excellent chance to make the tournament.  Although they are technically in fifth place, they are only one game behind conference "leaders" UTEP and Southern Miss.  As long as the Tigers can avoid another bad loss, their overall body of work should land them safely inside the Field of 68.  Tonight would constitute a very, very bad loss for Memphis.

Perhaps that's the most disappointing thing for Knights' fans tonight.  It isn't that Memphis will likely once again unceramoniously dismiss the Knights with routine fashion, and it isn't even that the season, for all intents and purposes, is over.  It is the fact that a win tonight would once again be an enormous upset, just like it has always been.  Despite the promise and attention of November and December the UCF Knights are once again double-digit underdogs to the conference bigboy Memphis, hoping to spring an enormous upset.

Just like last season.  And the season before.  And the season before that.  Yep, it's just like old times indeed, right back to square one.

.

Buckeyes Continue to Roll - And They're Getting Better...

Despite the Buckeye's undefeated record and unanimous #1 spot in the polls, it had become fashionable of late to dismiss the Buckeye's tournament chances, or at the very least dismiss them as the prohibitive favorite.

Such caution was understandable.  After close tussles with Michigan, Penn State and  Northwestern, saying the Buckeye's were beatable, even though they haven't been yet; was certainly not that bold of a statement.

However, anyone doubting the Buckeye's status as National Championship favorites might want to take a step back and reconsider.  Super Bowl Sunday's super performance on the road at Minnesota (82-69) was an absolute clinic on playing crisp, unselfish and smart basketball.  Jared Sullinger might eventually be the national POY, but he is anything but a "me-first" superstar.  He added three assists to Sunday's dominating 18 point - 13 rebound effort.  His willingness to defend, and even more impressive, his willingness to pass, makes Ohio State a more complete team than any I have seen since the 2006-2007 Florida Gators squad that cut down the nets.

There is a reason John Diebler is having the finest season of his career.  Yes, Diebler is an exceptional shooter; in my opinion the most lethal marksman in the country this year (Shooting over 47% from distance).  However, do not discount the benefit he derives from Ohio State's Thad Motta drawing up numerous sets to place him and Sullinger isolated on the same side of the court.  Once Diebler makes the entry pass to the post, his defender is left with a Sophie's Choice of sorts; either leave Sullinger single teamed on the block where the post defender has next to no chance to succeed, or double down and help, leaving the most lethal marksman in Big Ten history a clean look from the corner.

It's not just Diebler that has improved.  William Buford has given the Buckeyes exactly what they need; an athletic, rangy wing player who is explosive to the bucket and an able 3-point shooter as well.  His 13.6 points rank second on the team.  Freshman Aaron Craft has managed the point guard position with veteran-like poise.  His 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic for a freshman point guard in the Big Ten, and his minutes and role have continued to increase the past month in conjunction with his stellar play.

The 5th Year Senior & Heart of Buckeyes

Perhaps most important of all is do-everything super senior, David Lighty.  You might remember Lighty and his lock-down defense during Ohio State's National Championship game run back in 2007.  As a freshman he was a major contributor on the Oden-Conley-DeQuan Cook team that nearly won a national title.

Four years later, Lighty is back for more.  His defense is still spectacular, but he is also a vastly improved three point shooter (40.7%) and an absolutely explosive penetrator and high-flying dunker.  On most teams, he would be option #1; on the loaded Buckeyes his 12.5 points rank third on the team - and you'll NEVER hear him complain about it.  He is the ideal leader come March, and could wind up being the reason Ohio State wins their first basketball title since the days of Jerry Lucas and company.

The Buckeyes are unbeaten, yet they have gotten a TON better over the past three or four weeks.  Their devestating wins over Minnesota and Purdue are testament to the fact.  The next two weeks will provide the two most daunting hurdles to the Buckeye's quest to run the table.

Next Saturday Brutus takes his unbeaten mark to the arena where good teams go to die; the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin.  No one but Bucky wins in the Kohl Center.  If Ohio State could grab the win there, it's time to start giving their perfection chances some credence.

Survive that battle, and the following weekend it is a trip to Mackey and the Purdue Boilermakers.  Perhaps no team in the Big Ten is able to match talent with OSU better than Purdue.  Both have experience and All-Americans to boast.  Ohio State has a little more depth, and Purdue lacks the knockdown shooting threat of a John Diebler, but other than that the teams are relatively well matched.  Of course that wasn't particualrly the case two weeks ago in Colombus when OSU hammered Purdue 87-64.

It's scary to think Ohio State might actually have gotten better since that last meeting, but also probably true.  My gut feel is that they will lose before the NCAA Tourney, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they enter the tourney as the clear-cut #1 overall seed and only one loss on the record.

Regardless of what happens the next two weeks, one thing is abundantly clear.  The road to the National Championship will likely have to pass through Columbus, Ohio.

.

Storm of Trouble Bruin for St. John's

Last weekend the St. John's Red Storm were the toast of college basketball after absolutely humiliating the Duke Blue Devils on national TV at Madison Square Garden.

Not quite the homecoming Lavin hoped for.

One weekend later, on the same CBS national television spotlight, the good will the upset over Duke brought evaporated with a 66-59 loss to the sudeenly-bubble worthy UCLA Bruins.  It was a familiar sight for Coach Lavin, watching the Bruins walk out of Pauley Pavillion with a huge victory.  Unfortunately for Lavin, tonight he seated on the opposite bench.

St. John's would present quite an interesting case for the selection committee were the season ending today.  13-9 is certainly not a record that screams "at-large bid" however the fact that those thirteen wins include the blowout win over Duke, as well as wins over Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.  Most of their losses are quality as well, teams like St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati.  However losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure are potential profile killers.

After today, I have the Red Storm in the NIT.  Their next four games are a difficult and vital stretch in which anything less than 2-2 all but elimates the Red Storm from the at-large discussion.  Realisitcally the Johnnie's really need to go 3-1 to get back on comfortable footing.   Connecticut comes to town Thursday, followed by road trips to Cincinnati and Marquette - two games important not just for the Red Storm's profile, but also enormous in that they are games against the two teams they are most likely competing with for the last few at-large bids doled out to BEast teams.  To wrap up the two week's murderers row they get a visit from conference leader Pitt.

There is no doubt that Coach Lavin's first year has been a success, if for nothing else that revitalizing some excitement around the basketball program.  However, if forced to wager I'd bet the Johnnie's are still one year away from making their long-anticipated return to March Madness.

For UCLA, the importance of today's win is hard to overstate.  At 16-7 overall and 7-3 in the Pac-10, the Bruins are beginning to assemble an NCAA Tournament team's resume.  Other than BYU, it is UCLA's first real victory of note.  Aside from Montana, their losses are certainly not embarrassing; Villanova, VCU, Kansas (by 2), Washington, USC and Arizona.  However, it takes a few quality wins to get invited, especially given the overall poor non-conference play from the Pac-10 in 2010.

For the Bruins, they really are in pretty good control of their destiny.  They have five winnable games before a final three that will be fantastic; Washington, Arizona and Washington State; coincidentally the only three teams than have any at-large chances in the Pac-10 aside from themselves.

Ben Howland still have some serious rebuilding to do to get back on par with his three consecutive Final Four teams of the mid-2000's, but after today it is looking more and more like the Bruins won't be sitting out the tourney for the second consecutive season.

.