I swear we were writing this column well before Colin Cowherd started doing it... seriously! I promise...
Anyhow - thanks to the ubiquity of the column, I'll spare the explanation and dive right in.
Duke - BUY
I've written since the fourth week of November, Duke can seriously run the table. I know, I know, but Maryland almost beat them in Durham last night. First, no, they didn't "almost beat them." They played them close for about 38 minutes, which is impressive and not many teams will do, but at no point was Duke a possession away from being beaten. Even when the score was close, one never got the feeling the Devils were in precarious territory.
The ACC is down, they've already mowed through an excellent non-conference schedule that featured at least seven NCAA Tourney teams (unless the bizarre K-State slide gets out of of control). With or without Kyrie Irving, this is the best team in the country. I've gone on record as saying Jared Sullinger is my National POY - but if the voting was today, Nolan Smith is second.
It's hard to "buy" when a team is 16-0 and ranked #1 in the country, but I don't care. Duke is deep, poised, impossible to press and athletic on the interior for the first time in a long time. They have no real discernable weakness other than perhaps the possibility of become a tad too jump shot reliant.
Notre Dame - SELL
I wrote this before the blitzing they took from Marquette tonight, so it seems a bit more obvious now. My point was simply, ignore polls. The Irish are good but nowhere close to the eighth best team in the country. By March, I see them slotting in close to where they did last year; around a #6 seed, and finishing in the top half, but not top quarter, of the Big East. They've been a great story, but objectively are not as good as Syracuse, Villanova or Pitt. Despite Georgetown's struggles I'd put the Hoyas ahead of them talent-wise as well - and in the same bubble with Marquette and St. John's (though ahead of both).
St John's - BUY
Speaking of the Johnnies, they aren't ranked, mainly because of two putrid early losses to Fordham and St. Bonnie. Since then, they have raced out to a 3-1 start in Big East play and can make a viable case for being the fifth or sixth best team in that league. I like St. John's to finish above .500 in conference and make a surprising return to the tourney in Coach Lavin's first year. Plus, isn't it a hoot seeing Gene Keady and the comb-over on the bench as Lav's reverse-role assistant?!?
San Diego State - HOLD
Look, the Aztecs are good. They are really good. Before the season ever tipped I tabbed them as the best team out West, and still believe that. However, I'm struggling to see them go much higher than #5 (where they sit this week). The Mountain West is good. Far more deserving of the Pac-10, and frankly every bit as good overall as the ACC, minus Duke.
Let's see how they handle BYU and UNLV coming up. Tear through them, and we'll talk. Until then, the sting of New Mexico's dismal tourney showing last season still hovers in my mind a bit...
Texas - BUY
The Longhorns are my sleeper Final Four team. Yes, they will suffer some losses in the brutal Big 12, but this team is starting to gel, has nice blend of youthful talent, experience and a legit All-American in Jordan Hamilton. Rick Barnes may care more about getting players to the NBA than winning, but this year they'll show the two ideals are not mutually exclusive.
Five more tomorrow when we examine Purdue, Missouri, Syracuse, Southern Miss and Washington.
Wierd Week for the Reigning People's Champion
The season started rough for the champs, despite high expectations. Nearly every key contributor returned except Gordon Hayward who rode a hot March to a lottery selection in the NBA Draft (great move b.t.w, his stock was never getting any higher). Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and Ronald Nored remainied, giving Butler a core group that many thought could make another deep tourney run.
The first chink in the armor was a thorough dismissal by a young and inexperienced Louisville club the first week of the season. Subsequent losses to Evansville and Xavier were even more disappointing. But nothing compared to the roller coaster of last week.
The week began with a humiliating 76-52 loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. If you are thinking "those guys are pretty good, right?" you are thinking back to Bruce Pearl's Sweet Sixteen run there five years and dozens of recruiting violations ago. The Phoenix are 3-3 in the pedestrian Horizon League, and just 8-9 overall.
Push the panic button right? Next time out Butler laid the lumber to their foremost conference rival Cleveland State by nearly the same score; 79-56.
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| Struggles aplenty, but still pointing to the NCAA Tourney |
Long term view? I think Butler wins the Horizon League and I still they are a dangerous tournament team floating somewhere around the 7 to 9 line. It is a little odd and concerning to get such erratic play from such a veteran team, but so is the case this year in college hoops outside of six or seven steady reliable teams (and three elite ones).
Up next for Butler is a tricky weekend with trips to an improved Detroit and a decent Wright State team. Win both, and we're ready to declare the 'Dogs back on track. Struggle in one or two, and Butler finds themselves in recently unthinkable territory - looking squarely at the NIT.
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Three for All - Checking in at the Mid Way Point
Conference play is in full swing and the national landscape is starting to take form. We have our surprises, disappointments and emerging story lines - teams and players from schools we've never even considered rooting for who capture our fancy and take us on a fantastic ride through March.
Here's three for the road:
Players You May Not, But Should Know About:
* Klay Thompson, Washington State
* Gary Flowers, Southern Miss
* John Leuer - Wisconsin
Three Best Non-BCS Leagues in 2011
* Mountain West
* Conference USA
* Atlantic 10
Next Best Three:
* Colonial
* Missouri Valley
* Horizon League
Three Best Players in the Country:
* Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
* Kemba Walker, UConn
* Kyle Singler, Duke
Three Most Important Players to Their Team:
* Kemba Walker, UConn
* David Lighty, Ohio State
* Nolan Smith, Duke
Three More From Some Different Teams:
* Jimmer Fredette - BYU
* JuJuan Johnson - Purdue
* Kawhi Leonard - San Diego St.
Three Best Teams in the Country, and it's not even close:
* Duke
* Ohio State
* Kansas
Three Teams No One is Talking About With Final Four Potential:
* Purdue
* Texas
* Illinois
Three Most Disappointing Teams So Far:
* Kansas State
* Michigan State
* Virginia Tech
Three Best Mid Major Teams (Not in the MWC):
* Temple
* St. Mary's
* Richmond
Three Mid-Majors Who Aren't There Yet, But Will Surprise Down the Stretch:
* Southern Miss
* Dayton
* Butler
Three Mid-Majors You're Used to Seeing Dance Who Will Be on the Bubble (or worse):
* Xavier
* Gonzaga
* Memphis
Best Conferences Top to Bottom:
* Big 12
* Big Ten
* Big East
Three Best Coaching Jobs in 2010-2011:
* Donnie Jones, UCF
* Steve Fischer, San Diego St.
* Matt Painter, Purdue
Three Worst Coaching Jobs:
* Frank Martin, Kansas State
* Roy Williams, North Carolina
* Mike Montgomery, Cal
My National POY Ballot if Submitted Today:
* Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
* Nolan Smith, Duke
* Kemba Walker, UCONN
Three Most Important Freshman (without a broken toe...)
* Sullinger, obviously...
* Terrance Jones, Kentucky
* Josh Selby, Kansas
Three Conferences That Will Get MORE Teams in the Dance Than the Pac-10:
* Mountain West
* Conference USA
* Atlantic 10
Three Programs That SHOULD be Good, but Aren't:
* Michigan
* DePaul
* Cal
Three Ranked Teams That Won't Be in Three Weeks:
* UCF (Sorry Knight fans, but it's true...)
* Cincinnati
* Texas A&M
Three Unranked Teams That WILL:
* Georgia
* St. Mary's
* North Carolina
And last, but not least - Gun to My Head - Pick Your Final Four:
1. Duke
2. Ohio State
3. Purdue
4. Pitt
If I Had Some Guts I'd Take:
1. Texas
2. San Diego State
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
Have some more threes?? Leave 'em below - argue, disagree?? Great. Gimme three better!!
Here's three for the road:
Players You May Not, But Should Know About:
* Klay Thompson, Washington State
* Gary Flowers, Southern Miss
* John Leuer - Wisconsin
Three Best Non-BCS Leagues in 2011
* Mountain West
* Conference USA
* Atlantic 10
Next Best Three:
* Colonial
* Missouri Valley
* Horizon League
Three Best Players in the Country:
* Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
* Kemba Walker, UConn
* Kyle Singler, Duke
Three Most Important Players to Their Team:
* Kemba Walker, UConn
* David Lighty, Ohio State
* Nolan Smith, Duke
Three More From Some Different Teams:
* Jimmer Fredette - BYU
* JuJuan Johnson - Purdue
* Kawhi Leonard - San Diego St.
Three Best Teams in the Country, and it's not even close:
* Duke
* Ohio State
* Kansas
Three Teams No One is Talking About With Final Four Potential:
* Purdue
* Texas
* Illinois
Three Most Disappointing Teams So Far:
* Kansas State
* Michigan State
* Virginia Tech
Three Best Mid Major Teams (Not in the MWC):
* Temple
* St. Mary's
* Richmond
Three Mid-Majors Who Aren't There Yet, But Will Surprise Down the Stretch:
* Southern Miss
* Dayton
* Butler
Three Mid-Majors You're Used to Seeing Dance Who Will Be on the Bubble (or worse):
* Xavier
* Gonzaga
* Memphis
Best Conferences Top to Bottom:
* Big 12
* Big Ten
* Big East
Three Best Coaching Jobs in 2010-2011:
* Donnie Jones, UCF
* Steve Fischer, San Diego St.
* Matt Painter, Purdue
Three Worst Coaching Jobs:
* Frank Martin, Kansas State
* Roy Williams, North Carolina
* Mike Montgomery, Cal
My National POY Ballot if Submitted Today:
* Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
* Nolan Smith, Duke
* Kemba Walker, UCONN
Three Most Important Freshman (without a broken toe...)
* Sullinger, obviously...
* Terrance Jones, Kentucky
* Josh Selby, Kansas
Three Conferences That Will Get MORE Teams in the Dance Than the Pac-10:
* Mountain West
* Conference USA
* Atlantic 10
Three Programs That SHOULD be Good, but Aren't:
* Michigan
* DePaul
* Cal
Three Ranked Teams That Won't Be in Three Weeks:
* UCF (Sorry Knight fans, but it's true...)
* Cincinnati
* Texas A&M
Three Unranked Teams That WILL:
* Georgia
* St. Mary's
* North Carolina
And last, but not least - Gun to My Head - Pick Your Final Four:
1. Duke
2. Ohio State
3. Purdue
4. Pitt
If I Had Some Guts I'd Take:
1. Texas
2. San Diego State
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
Have some more threes?? Leave 'em below - argue, disagree?? Great. Gimme three better!!
A Little Less "Cross" and not much of a "Shootout" - Bearcats Snap 3-Game Skid in Crosstown Shootout
No, tonight the only thing on a stretcher was the Xavier offense. Full disclosure, I am a die-hard Xavier fan. As a matter of fact until this season when my alma matter UCF suddenly and bizarrely became relevant, I rooted for the Muskies above all other and literally ached when the season ended after an inevitably heartbreaking NCAA Tourney loss. (Greg Oden - I still hate you almost enough to chuckle at your injury-riddled NBA career...) But let's be honest...
This Xavier team is the worst they've fielded in a decade. They made the 14-0 UC Bearcats LOOK like a legitimate 14-0 team rather than the creampuff eating NCAA bubble team they are.
It's not sour grapes, it's honest analysis. Xavier is not an NCAA Tournament team this year, yet it is easily one of Cincinnati's two best wins this season (the other is Dayton, also at home). Tonight Xavier turned in as poor of an offensive performance as you will see this season, shooting 39% from the floor and turning the ball over a pathetic 17 times. In reality, they shot even worse than the numbers indicate as many of their buckets came on scrappy put backs and scramble buckets by Jamel McLean and Kenny Frease. Eliminate the stickbacks and their shooting percentage dips down near 25%.
For the Bearcats, as sloppy as the win might have been, it was still a dominating performance. They simply out-toughed and out-worked the Musketeers all over the floor. It was the kind of gritty, scrapping effort not seen in the Shoemaker Center since the ouster of Bobby Huggins. This is first team that has a shot at going to the Tourney since the aforementioned ouster as well.
Notice I said, "a shot." At 14-0, one would think they are on pretty safe footing, but their real schedule begins Saturday. Don't be surprised if the Bearcats lose five of their next eight as they have trips to Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, St. John's, and Pitt coming up over the next three weeks. That's brutal for any team, not just one with a slightly inflated record and glaring offensive deficiencies in the shooting and point guard play departments.
The Big East is a gauntlet, but it is one that both chews up and nurtures the weak. While the top seven or eight teams are as good as any league in the country, the bottom provides fodder for middling teams to fatten on; DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, USF. Here's an interesting statistic; the Bearcats could get to 20-10 (assuming a second round loss in the BEast Tourney), playing in one of the premier conferences in the country, and STILL not have beaten a single team that will be in the NCAA field.
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| I agree Mick, why schedule tougher? |
The best litmus test of how far the once-dominant Cincinnati program has slid came in a derisive chant from the student section as UC was roaring out to a big lead midway through the second half; "OVER-RATED! OVER-RATED!!"
Really? Overrated? The Muskies came into the game 8-4, and have received nary a vote in the polls the past three weeks. Overrated? Cincinnati was a nine-point favorite for crying out loud. Sounds like someone has developed an inferiority complex...
Ten years ago, it was the Xavier fans who would employ such a cheer as their plucky mid-major Muskies played over their heads for one magical evening to jump up biting at big brother's heel before occasionally felling the Giant. Today? It's the Big East's Bearcat fans bringing their slingshots to the Shootout, hoping to knock off Mighty X in an injury-ridden down year, fresh off losing their Coach and two early entrants to the NBA draft over the past two seasons.
Overrated? Not the Muskies, but by the time the season ends Mick Cronin's mirror might be reflecting the same message as the shine of a perfect 14-0 fades to Big East attrition.
Look, winning the Shootout is always going to be special, and it should be. It's what great rivalries are bred of, and this game takes a backseat to very few college basketball rivalries. For tonight, the Bearcats are once again Kings of the Queen City, and nothing about that is over-rated. I just remember a time no so long ago when this one game wasn't what crowned them.
Rocking the Garden - St. John's Moves to 3-0 Downing Georgetown 61-58
Jan 3rd -- MSG, New York, New York
With all due respect to the Amar'e Stoudemire MSG Revival Tour, the Knicks aren't the only ones electrifying the Garden these days. The Garden sizzled like it was 1985 when the #13 Georgetown Hoyas came to New York to tussle with St. John's. No offense to Ron-Ron, but it's been nearly two decades since the classic Hoya/Johnnie matchup felt like it did tonight. Since the great Lou Carnesecca resigned St. John's has been searching for someone to bring back the magic. It looks like they finally found him.
A few weeks ago one would have been hard pressed to predict this outcome. The Johnnies suffered a few disturbing early losses; at St. Mary's was excusable, but back-to-back losses to Fordham and St. Bonneventure would get A-10 coaches on the hot seat, let alone Big East coaches. It appeared that Lavin wasn't the "quick-fix" their fan base was hoping for. What a difference a few weeks make.
Once Big East play heated up, it sure didn't long for Steve Lavin to bring some magic back to the Mecca.
At 3-0 in BEast play with wins over Georgetown and at West Virginia (five straight overall with a convincing win over Northwestern as well) they have sufficiently erased the sting of an early two-game disaster.
However, as is frequently the case in BEast play, there is little time to stand and admire the progress. The next seven games are a brutal stretch that will go a long way to determining if St. John's is truly tourney-ready. Tomorrow, it's right back to the practice court, scheming up way to tackle Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati and Duke. But for tonight, Lavin and company get to enjoy something that has long been absent, the bright lights on the biggest basketball stage in the world with a smile.
With all due respect to the Amar'e Stoudemire MSG Revival Tour, the Knicks aren't the only ones electrifying the Garden these days. The Garden sizzled like it was 1985 when the #13 Georgetown Hoyas came to New York to tussle with St. John's. No offense to Ron-Ron, but it's been nearly two decades since the classic Hoya/Johnnie matchup felt like it did tonight. Since the great Lou Carnesecca resigned St. John's has been searching for someone to bring back the magic. It looks like they finally found him.
A few weeks ago one would have been hard pressed to predict this outcome. The Johnnies suffered a few disturbing early losses; at St. Mary's was excusable, but back-to-back losses to Fordham and St. Bonneventure would get A-10 coaches on the hot seat, let alone Big East coaches. It appeared that Lavin wasn't the "quick-fix" their fan base was hoping for. What a difference a few weeks make.
Once Big East play heated up, it sure didn't long for Steve Lavin to bring some magic back to the Mecca.
At 3-0 in BEast play with wins over Georgetown and at West Virginia (five straight overall with a convincing win over Northwestern as well) they have sufficiently erased the sting of an early two-game disaster.
However, as is frequently the case in BEast play, there is little time to stand and admire the progress. The next seven games are a brutal stretch that will go a long way to determining if St. John's is truly tourney-ready. Tomorrow, it's right back to the practice court, scheming up way to tackle Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati and Duke. But for tonight, Lavin and company get to enjoy something that has long been absent, the bright lights on the biggest basketball stage in the world with a smile.
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