Colonial Duel - Will Both End Up Standing??

Very, very, VERY under the radar, the most important game played in college basketball today took place in Richmond, Virginia in the always tourney-dangerous Colonial League.  Old Dominion captured an enormous win at Virginia Commonwealth to pull to within a game of VCU and George Mason for the conference lead.  More importantly, by earning the season split they are now easily ahead of the Rams in the at-large pecking order.

All three team now sit squarely on 20 wins, and all three are worthy of at-large invitations.  However, conference perceptions being what they are, MOST sites project only two CAA teams earning a bid.  That makes today's road win for Old Dominion the most important and influential win on a packed Saturday slate of games.

Old Dominion moved to 11-4 in conference, and 20-6 overall.  The Monarchs own wins over Xavier, Clemson, Richmond, and Dayton, as well as splits with conference mates VCU and George Mason.  Two of their other six losses were at Georgetown and Missouri.  They have only two bad losses; Delaware and Drexel (and Drexel also beat Louisville at Louisville this season).

VCU has fared well against a challenging slate as well, knocking off UCLA, but losing to Tennessee, UCLA, UAB and Richmond, as well as a bad loss to South Florida.  They are a game ahead of ODU in conference play at 12-3 (20-7 overall), but have yet to play George Mason.  Those two square off Tuesday in yet another enormous game, as the loser slides into a second place tie with ODU - and neither can boast the out of conference scalps the Monarch carry into Selection Sunday.

I didn't have a chance to watch the ODU/VCU game today - so here's a couple good links for a game recap.

http://www.odusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021211aaa.html
http://bleacherreport.com/old-dominion-basketball

enjoy!

In the End, It's How You Play at the End

The NCAA Tournament is less about talent that nearly any analyst or fans realizes.  Most seasons, outside of five or six teams at the top and fourteen or sixteen teams at the bottom - the talent is pretty even.  The difference that separates the Sweet and Elite from the meat?  How you handle crisis, and how you function in end-game situations.

This is the precise and exact reason why the humble Maniac can already give you teams that are going to be upset prone and teams that will likely outplay their seed this March.  It isn't so much about the stats, but how you execute in situations where the difference between winning and losing is just a few scant possessions.

Some call it coaching, and I agree coaching is part of it, but another big part of it is in your player's DNA.  It's in your player's brains.  You can't fake cool and you can't fake smart when the bright lights start their One Shining Moment.

This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'.  Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play?  By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four.  It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! 

This is an excellent example of the AAU-style play that is prevalent this season in the SEC.  Poor ball movement, terrible end-game execution, lousy foul shooting and a poor understanding of score and situation.

I can't see any SEC teams making a real run at the Final Four.  With the exception of Vandy; all the teams simply play too dumb.

Contrast that with the exceptionally high caliber of basketball currently being played in the Big Ten and Big East.  The way Wisconsin and Ohio State both had complete control of score and situation - as well as never missed any clutch free throws, is a hallmark of two teams ready for March.  Ditto for Purdue.  There aren't many teams in the country I would feel more comfortable coaching than Purdue if I needed a bucket late. Purdue's two-man game of E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson, not just their scoring ability but the senior smarts make them a likely candidate for a deep March run.  Purdue's point guard play is a little less solid than their two aforementioned conference mates, but is still a squad with the poise, talent and smarts to make a run to the Final Four.

Is there any conference whose top teams will be more battle-tested than the Big East?   Nearly every game is an intense slug-fest between the top eleven (maybe ten, has Cincinnati really challenged many top teams??) teams this season.  Pitt and Villanova are two of the toughest teams in the nation.  Louisville has shown several occasions that they are capable of late heroics.  Georgetown and their spectacular backcourt are exactly what one looks for when filling out their brackets, and I have not seen any team in the country that shares the ball with the unselfishness of Notre Dame. 

The Big East will likely have six or seven teams receive Top 4 seeds, and frankly I could see any one of them, with the exception of UConn, making a run to the Final Four.

We will have a nice Monday afternoon Bracketeering Bubble Busting Edition - but for now, here's a quick list of stock up and stock downs from the Maniac's humble vantage point...

Stock Up (March BUYS):

Ohio State
Villanova
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
Duke
Georgetown
San Diego State

Stock Down (March SELLS):

Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas State
UConn
Minnesota

Florida
Washington
Richmond (if they make it...)

HOLDS (Still getting a final read)

BYU -  (Yes, I have Jimmer-mania... but do they have enough help?  Can you box & one them and get the upset?)
Texas - (remind me a ton of Memphis 2008-09 - is that good or bad?)
Kansas - (hard not to like them, I've just seen them at their worst - USC, UCLA, Texas...)
Illinois - (McCammey needs to distribute AND score, not just the latter)
Vanderbilt - (smart, balanced - are the strong enough at point?)
Pitt - (can they score enough points?)
Louisville - (they've looked really good...but are they really good?)
North Carolina - (impressive over the last month, do they shoot well enough to advance deep?)

We Waited for This? End Game Confusion Dooms Vols to Loss #10

The logic for Tennessee was, hold the rope until Coach Pearl returns, then finish with a second-half flurry once Coach returned...

So much for logic.  With the game on the line, Coach Pearl strangely elected to let his team play.  In their jumbled confusion and panic, they may have put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy.

Tennessee had a chance to extend to a three point lead, but continued their dismal foul shooting and missed the front end of a crucial one-and-one.  Florida rebounded, got the outlet pass to Erving Walker, and the smallest man on the floor made the biggest play of the night.  Walker raced all the way down the floor, Tyus Edney-stlye, and scored a driving layup to give the Gators a 61-60 lead with 14.7 seconds remaining.

Tennessee looked shaky inbounding the ball and advancing it into the front court.  They appeared to be confused as to what set they wanted to run and whether or not a screen was to be set or waived off.  However, with two timeouts left in his pocket, Pearl elected to do nothing.  The last possession result ended up being a Melvin Going's step-back contested three pointer that clanged harmlessly away from the rim and sealed the Vols doom.

I agree Coach - Just call the TIMEOUT!!

The win, coupled with the Kentucky loss today, all but seals up the SEC East for the Gators at 9-2 and everyone else at least two games back in the loss column, plus the tiebreak edge from head-to-head wins.

For Tennessee, it is loss #10 - and right back balancing precariously on the bubble.  It is a particualrly tough loss to swallow, failing to get off a quality last second shot with timeouts in their pocket, and never getting the ball in the hands of their best shooter and scorer, Scotty Hopson.

The Vols now face near must-win games in their next two home games, against South Carolina and Georgia.  They own some simply fantastic non-conference wins; VCU, Missouri State and more importantly, Pitt and Villanova.  However, they have now lost three straight, have ten losses overall and are only 5-5 in the good, but certainly not great, SEC.

For the Gators, the win keeps them locked in to win the SEC, and continue their march towards being the Top 4 seed that every analysts picks to be upset in Round One.

Winners & Losers

A win is a win is a win.  There's some classic coach-speak for ya' on an action packed Saturday afternoon.  But sometimes a team can prove their mettle in a loss as well.

Such was the case for two teams this week.

Ohio State is no longer unbeaten, having fallen 71-67 at Wisconsin in what was, in the Maniac's humble opinion, the best played game in college basketball this season.  Ohio State looked like the were going to put Bucky away early in the second half, as freshman point guard Aaron Craft and junior swingman William Buford spearheaded the Buckeye offensive explosion.  The lead swelled to 42-30 before Wisconsin and the Krazy Kohl Center roared back.

In the Big Ten, most of the Player of the Year discussion circles around Jared Sullinger and JuJuan Johnson.  A few people made a case (well deserved) for John Lauer as well, but today Jordan Taylor threw his name in the hat as well.  The Wisconsin point guard was absolutely unconscious in the second half, scoring 22 of his game high 28 points, many of which came during Wisconsin's 17-2 run to reclaim the lead with about 7:00 remaining.

Yes, Ohio State lost, but they lost in a place where Bo Ryan has lost only 11 times in as many years.  That comes out to a winning percentage of around 94% despite playing in one of the deepest and balanced conferences every season.  Quite simply, no one wins in the Kohl Center - but the Buckeye's came darn close.

The impressive thing to take away from today's game if you are an Ohio State fan is the way they managed the final 2:00, trialing by six points.  They never panicked - they got three consecutive stops and rather than burning a lot of clock on the offensive end or jacking up a contested three pointer, the Buckeyes went straight to the basket, drew two hard fouls and stepped up to the line and knocked in four consecutive foul shots (two by Diebler, two by Sullinger).  That is the kind of poise it takes to survive and advance in March.

The other thing to take away - Wisconsin absolutely shot the lights out in the second half.  The final dagger was a three ball from the top of the key from Bruesewitz, a six-ten forward/shooter who the Buckeye's failed to rotate over to, fearing leaving open the sizzling Jordan Taylor.  It was that kind of day for Wisconsin, who shot 12 of 24 from behind the arc.

Both teams are legit Final Four threats, and if you are an OSU fan, there is little to be disappointed about today.  The Buckeyes defended very well, Wisconsin, very similarly to Notre Dame, just fills the floor with very tall shooters, each having three or four guys over 6'8'' who can hit from behind the arc.  A well played game on both sides, and I walked away feeling more confident in Ohio State's chances to go to the Final Four as opposed to less...

Another "winner" from a losing result was North Carolina's performance Wednesday night in Durham.  Yes, the Tarheels are kicking themselves after squandering a 14-point halftime lead and failing to finish off the Blue Devils, but in the defeat Carolina displayed some qualities that had eluded them last season during their struggles.

First of all, this team passes the ball and handles ball pressure far better than last season.  They feed the post, taking advantage of Tyler Zeller's size and touch around the basket.  It isn't so much that Zeller is leaps and bounds better than last season; it's the absence of Drew and Graves, and the influx of ball movement and passing that have made the demonstrable difference.

Carolina follwed up their excellent Wednesday performance with an enormous win today at Clemson to move to 8-2 in ACC play.  Most mock brackets have them "in" but not a lock; I respectfully disagree.  Carolina's play this week moves them firmly IN, and a Top 4 seed as of today.

It's February, and as any coach will tell you, a win is a win is a win; but astute fans can take away a lot of confidence from Ohio State and North Carolina's losses.

The Fab Forty Five - Feb 10th, 2011

The Maniac has a slightly different way of looking at the NCAA Tournament field than a lot of the other Bracketologists, Bubble-ologyists, Bracket Analysts, etc.  Rather than looking at the bubble teams independantly and comparing them historically to previous year's fields to make projections, we focus more on how many slots are available and who exactly is jockeying for them.

Here is a quick rundown of the math: In 2011 the field is expanding to 68 teams.  There are 31 conferences with automatic bids (30 conference tournaments and the Ivy, who instead sends their regular season champ).  Simple math leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs.  Normal bracket math focuses on those 37 slots, and plays some guesswork with who might "steal" a bid from one of the lesser conferences by winning the conference tournament and taking a slot from some otherwise deserving team.

Let's all assume together that the six BCS league tournaments will likely be won by a team that was going to the tournament anyhow.  I know on rare occassions someone sneaks up out of nowhere (most recently in the SEC with Georgia in 08 and Mississippi State in 09), but it happens very infrequently.  Let's also go on a limb and assume that the A-10 and Mountain West will also be won by a team already on safe ground.

Adding those eight conference bids back into the pool gives us 45 slots available.  Focusing on being inside that 45 will nearly automatically guarantee entree' into the Dance.  It is possible that a few additional bids will creep into the mix; for example if Utah State (who is IN) wins the WAC Tournament for example.  But anything inside of the Fab Fo' Five and a team should be safe.

Here's The Maniac's Fab Fo' Five as of February 10th:

LOCKS (21):  These are teams that are IN barring an absolutely ludicrous late season collapse. For that reason, we are being very judicious with inclusion; for example, teams like Washington, St. Mary's and Vanderbilt shouldn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday, but still have a little work to do before sliding into the absolute LOCK category.

Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Xavier, San Diego St, BYU.

This leaves 24 bids remaining in the at-large pile.  Our second group is for teams knocking on the door that still have some work to do before exhaling.

GOOD SHAPE (12): These teams would be IN today, but still need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to feel safe.  The final three teams (St. Mary's, Wichita State and Utah State could help out fellow bubble-sitters by winning their conference tourneys and adding a bid back into the pile)

Temple, West Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, George Mason, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Utah State

BUBBLE (17):  We are now left with just twelve bids remaining and a lot of teams with a good case to be made.  Everyone on this list is one loss away from falling out, with plenty of teams waiting to replace them.  You'll notice 17 teams in this category; obviously five of them are on the outside looking in - those five I will purposely list last.

Virginia Tech, Florida State, Richmond, Marquette, St. John's, Memphis, Kansas State, UCLA, Texas A&M, VCU, UCLA, Georgia, Southern Miss, Missouri State, Butler, Cincinnati, Old Dominion

WAITING IN THE WINGS (11):  These are teams I have OUT as of today - but certainly can creep back in the mix with a strong finish and some wins over conference teams slotted ahead of them currently.

Maryland, Clemson, Boston College, Duquesne, Colorado, Michigan State, UTEP, Washington State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

BURIED, BUT NOT (OFFICIALLY) DEAD:  Here's some long, long shots that are going to need an unbelievable finish (like running the table) to jump back in the mix

Dayton, Nebraska, Michigan, Princeton (should win Ivy), Colorado State, Drexel, SMU, New Mexico, Alabama, South Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, Arkansas, Mississippi State

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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The Battle of Who Could Care Less

A good shout out to The Ben Folds Five... and an appropriate label for at least 50% of tonight's Memphis at UCF Conference USA battle.

To the best of my non-research aided recollection, UCF has a unique opportunity to be the first team in Division I history to both be ranked in the Top 25 and eventually finish 14th or worse inside their conference in the same season.  Tonight is yet another likely step for the Knights to solidify their historic achievement.

Four weeks ago?  This date was circled on the calendar; the battle for first place in Conference USA - a game not just to slug out who would win the league but also for jockeying for seeding position in the Big Dance.

Seven straight losses later, including a pair to East Carolina and a loss to Rice, Donnie Jones has to be wondering, 'will we ever win another game?'  To hell with 'can we still reach the NIT?'  He is trying to stave off one of the most bizarre and disappointing plumetts in recent college basketball history.

For Memphis, this game still matters a lot.  The Tigers didn't do themselves and favors dropping back to back games to Marshall and Tulsa, however their 62-58 win over likewise reeling Gonzaga was an enormous win, placing them right back on the precarious bubble.  The Tigers enter at 17-6, and having played an excellent non-conference schedule.  However at 5-3, they are tied with SMU for fifth place in Conference USA; not exactly something that endears a team in the Committee's eyes come Selection Sunday.

Memphis still has an excellent chance to make the tournament.  Although they are technically in fifth place, they are only one game behind conference "leaders" UTEP and Southern Miss.  As long as the Tigers can avoid another bad loss, their overall body of work should land them safely inside the Field of 68.  Tonight would constitute a very, very bad loss for Memphis.

Perhaps that's the most disappointing thing for Knights' fans tonight.  It isn't that Memphis will likely once again unceramoniously dismiss the Knights with routine fashion, and it isn't even that the season, for all intents and purposes, is over.  It is the fact that a win tonight would once again be an enormous upset, just like it has always been.  Despite the promise and attention of November and December the UCF Knights are once again double-digit underdogs to the conference bigboy Memphis, hoping to spring an enormous upset.

Just like last season.  And the season before.  And the season before that.  Yep, it's just like old times indeed, right back to square one.

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Buckeyes Continue to Roll - And They're Getting Better...

Despite the Buckeye's undefeated record and unanimous #1 spot in the polls, it had become fashionable of late to dismiss the Buckeye's tournament chances, or at the very least dismiss them as the prohibitive favorite.

Such caution was understandable.  After close tussles with Michigan, Penn State and  Northwestern, saying the Buckeye's were beatable, even though they haven't been yet; was certainly not that bold of a statement.

However, anyone doubting the Buckeye's status as National Championship favorites might want to take a step back and reconsider.  Super Bowl Sunday's super performance on the road at Minnesota (82-69) was an absolute clinic on playing crisp, unselfish and smart basketball.  Jared Sullinger might eventually be the national POY, but he is anything but a "me-first" superstar.  He added three assists to Sunday's dominating 18 point - 13 rebound effort.  His willingness to defend, and even more impressive, his willingness to pass, makes Ohio State a more complete team than any I have seen since the 2006-2007 Florida Gators squad that cut down the nets.

There is a reason John Diebler is having the finest season of his career.  Yes, Diebler is an exceptional shooter; in my opinion the most lethal marksman in the country this year (Shooting over 47% from distance).  However, do not discount the benefit he derives from Ohio State's Thad Motta drawing up numerous sets to place him and Sullinger isolated on the same side of the court.  Once Diebler makes the entry pass to the post, his defender is left with a Sophie's Choice of sorts; either leave Sullinger single teamed on the block where the post defender has next to no chance to succeed, or double down and help, leaving the most lethal marksman in Big Ten history a clean look from the corner.

It's not just Diebler that has improved.  William Buford has given the Buckeyes exactly what they need; an athletic, rangy wing player who is explosive to the bucket and an able 3-point shooter as well.  His 13.6 points rank second on the team.  Freshman Aaron Craft has managed the point guard position with veteran-like poise.  His 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic for a freshman point guard in the Big Ten, and his minutes and role have continued to increase the past month in conjunction with his stellar play.

The 5th Year Senior & Heart of Buckeyes

Perhaps most important of all is do-everything super senior, David Lighty.  You might remember Lighty and his lock-down defense during Ohio State's National Championship game run back in 2007.  As a freshman he was a major contributor on the Oden-Conley-DeQuan Cook team that nearly won a national title.

Four years later, Lighty is back for more.  His defense is still spectacular, but he is also a vastly improved three point shooter (40.7%) and an absolutely explosive penetrator and high-flying dunker.  On most teams, he would be option #1; on the loaded Buckeyes his 12.5 points rank third on the team - and you'll NEVER hear him complain about it.  He is the ideal leader come March, and could wind up being the reason Ohio State wins their first basketball title since the days of Jerry Lucas and company.

The Buckeyes are unbeaten, yet they have gotten a TON better over the past three or four weeks.  Their devestating wins over Minnesota and Purdue are testament to the fact.  The next two weeks will provide the two most daunting hurdles to the Buckeye's quest to run the table.

Next Saturday Brutus takes his unbeaten mark to the arena where good teams go to die; the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin.  No one but Bucky wins in the Kohl Center.  If Ohio State could grab the win there, it's time to start giving their perfection chances some credence.

Survive that battle, and the following weekend it is a trip to Mackey and the Purdue Boilermakers.  Perhaps no team in the Big Ten is able to match talent with OSU better than Purdue.  Both have experience and All-Americans to boast.  Ohio State has a little more depth, and Purdue lacks the knockdown shooting threat of a John Diebler, but other than that the teams are relatively well matched.  Of course that wasn't particualrly the case two weeks ago in Colombus when OSU hammered Purdue 87-64.

It's scary to think Ohio State might actually have gotten better since that last meeting, but also probably true.  My gut feel is that they will lose before the NCAA Tourney, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they enter the tourney as the clear-cut #1 overall seed and only one loss on the record.

Regardless of what happens the next two weeks, one thing is abundantly clear.  The road to the National Championship will likely have to pass through Columbus, Ohio.

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Storm of Trouble Bruin for St. John's

Last weekend the St. John's Red Storm were the toast of college basketball after absolutely humiliating the Duke Blue Devils on national TV at Madison Square Garden.

Not quite the homecoming Lavin hoped for.

One weekend later, on the same CBS national television spotlight, the good will the upset over Duke brought evaporated with a 66-59 loss to the sudeenly-bubble worthy UCLA Bruins.  It was a familiar sight for Coach Lavin, watching the Bruins walk out of Pauley Pavillion with a huge victory.  Unfortunately for Lavin, tonight he seated on the opposite bench.

St. John's would present quite an interesting case for the selection committee were the season ending today.  13-9 is certainly not a record that screams "at-large bid" however the fact that those thirteen wins include the blowout win over Duke, as well as wins over Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.  Most of their losses are quality as well, teams like St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati.  However losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure are potential profile killers.

After today, I have the Red Storm in the NIT.  Their next four games are a difficult and vital stretch in which anything less than 2-2 all but elimates the Red Storm from the at-large discussion.  Realisitcally the Johnnie's really need to go 3-1 to get back on comfortable footing.   Connecticut comes to town Thursday, followed by road trips to Cincinnati and Marquette - two games important not just for the Red Storm's profile, but also enormous in that they are games against the two teams they are most likely competing with for the last few at-large bids doled out to BEast teams.  To wrap up the two week's murderers row they get a visit from conference leader Pitt.

There is no doubt that Coach Lavin's first year has been a success, if for nothing else that revitalizing some excitement around the basketball program.  However, if forced to wager I'd bet the Johnnie's are still one year away from making their long-anticipated return to March Madness.

For UCLA, the importance of today's win is hard to overstate.  At 16-7 overall and 7-3 in the Pac-10, the Bruins are beginning to assemble an NCAA Tournament team's resume.  Other than BYU, it is UCLA's first real victory of note.  Aside from Montana, their losses are certainly not embarrassing; Villanova, VCU, Kansas (by 2), Washington, USC and Arizona.  However, it takes a few quality wins to get invited, especially given the overall poor non-conference play from the Pac-10 in 2010.

For the Bruins, they really are in pretty good control of their destiny.  They have five winnable games before a final three that will be fantastic; Washington, Arizona and Washington State; coincidentally the only three teams than have any at-large chances in the Pac-10 aside from themselves.

Ben Howland still have some serious rebuilding to do to get back on par with his three consecutive Final Four teams of the mid-2000's, but after today it is looking more and more like the Bruins won't be sitting out the tourney for the second consecutive season.

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