Here is a quick rundown of the math: In 2011 the field is expanding to 68 teams. There are 31 conferences with automatic bids (30 conference tournaments and the Ivy, who instead sends their regular season champ). Simple math leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs. Normal bracket math focuses on those 37 slots, and plays some guesswork with who might "steal" a bid from one of the lesser conferences by winning the conference tournament and taking a slot from some otherwise deserving team.
Let's all assume together that the six BCS league tournaments will likely be won by a team that was going to the tournament anyhow. I know on rare occassions someone sneaks up out of nowhere (most recently in the SEC with Georgia in 08 and Mississippi State in 09), but it happens very infrequently. Let's also go on a limb and assume that the A-10 and Mountain West will also be won by a team already on safe ground.
Adding those eight conference bids back into the pool gives us 45 slots available. Focusing on being inside that 45 will nearly automatically guarantee entree' into the Dance. It is possible that a few additional bids will creep into the mix; for example if Utah State (who is IN) wins the WAC Tournament for example. But anything inside of the Fab Fo' Five and a team should be safe.
Here's The Maniac's Fab Fo' Five as of February 10th:
LOCKS (21): These are teams that are IN barring an absolutely ludicrous late season collapse. For that reason, we are being very judicious with inclusion; for example, teams like Washington, St. Mary's and Vanderbilt shouldn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday, but still have a little work to do before sliding into the absolute LOCK category.
Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Xavier, San Diego St, BYU.
This leaves 24 bids remaining in the at-large pile. Our second group is for teams knocking on the door that still have some work to do before exhaling.
GOOD SHAPE (12): These teams would be IN today, but still need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to feel safe. The final three teams (St. Mary's, Wichita State and Utah State could help out fellow bubble-sitters by winning their conference tourneys and adding a bid back into the pile)
Temple, West Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, George Mason, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Utah State
BUBBLE (17): We are now left with just twelve bids remaining and a lot of teams with a good case to be made. Everyone on this list is one loss away from falling out, with plenty of teams waiting to replace them. You'll notice 17 teams in this category; obviously five of them are on the outside looking in - those five I will purposely list last.
Virginia Tech, Florida State, Richmond, Marquette, St. John's, Memphis, Kansas State, UCLA, Texas A&M, VCU, UCLA, Georgia, Southern Miss, Missouri State, Butler, Cincinnati, Old Dominion
WAITING IN THE WINGS (11): These are teams I have OUT as of today - but certainly can creep back in the mix with a strong finish and some wins over conference teams slotted ahead of them currently.
Maryland, Clemson, Boston College, Duquesne, Colorado, Michigan State, UTEP, Washington State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State
BURIED, BUT NOT (OFFICIALLY) DEAD: Here's some long, long shots that are going to need an unbelievable finish (like running the table) to jump back in the mix
Dayton, Nebraska, Michigan, Princeton (should win Ivy), Colorado State, Drexel, SMU, New Mexico, Alabama, South Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, Arkansas, Mississippi State
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