Thursday's Stock Report

Consider this part two of the series, updated with some fresh Thursday results from a couple of very big games with bubble implications

STOCK UP:


Belmont - With tonight's win the Bruins moved to 24-4, and 16-1 in the Atlantic Sun.  The A-Sun is nowhere in the stratosphere of an at-large berthing conference, however, considering that three of Belmont's losses are to Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt - none by more than nine, and one could make a very compelling case for the Bruins should they fall in the conference tourney.

Arizona - Very quietly Sean Miller has done on of the better coaching jobs in the country, and has the Wildcats poised not only to return to the Tourney, but to claim a Top 4 (I have them as a #3 today) seed.  Tonight's 79-70 win over Washington State was a big one for Arizona, and a huge blow to the Cougars bubble hopes.


Alabama - Even more quietly than Arizona, Anthony Grant has done the most stunning reclamation project in the nation, and has guided Alabama legitimately back into the NCAA Tourney discussion.  Tonight's win over LSU is nothing to shout about, but the Crimson Tide's 9-2 mark in conference sure is.  While Tennessee and Georgia are tripping all over themselves, Alabama is making early season losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Providence and Seton Hall seem like distant memories.  Unfortunatly the Committee's memories are pretty long...

It may be too much to overcome, but right now, I'd give the Tide the nod over Georgia.

STOCK DOWN:


Minnesota - Losing to Penn State is not a good way to impress the Committee late.  The 66-63 loss doesn't knock the Gophers out, but it does put them in a very precarious position with a lot of pressure to finish strong and possibly even win a few games in the Big Ten tourney.

Clemson - If you appear in the Maniac's "Stock Down" in consecutive editions, things aren't going well.  Tonight's 79-71 loss to NC State should pretty much seal the Tiger's NIT destination.



Richmond - Tonight's 73-53 loss to Temple was really ugly.  The Spiders still have life, but are dancing right on the fine #12 seed/NIT line.  Duquesne has to be thrilled with the lopsided defeat, and in the Maniac's mock bracket, they have officially slid ahead of Richmond in the pecking order.

Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

This Year's George Mason Might Just Be George Mason...

George Mason left little doubt as to their tourney destination and status as the Colonial's elite tonight with an impressive 71-51 win over VCU.  George Mason is inching very close to LOCK status in the big dance, and could find themselves with a better seed than the #11 they drew five years ago en route to the Final Four.

For Virginia Commonwealth, the loss was absolutely devestating.  Four days ago, VCU was in decent shape for earning an at-large bid.  However, with back-to-back losses to Old Dominion and George Mason, they slide into third in conference, and with their considerably more sparse resume than the two conference front runners, it now appears their only entre' into the Dance will be to win the CAA Tourney.

Friday's Bracket Buster Challenge trip to Wichita State could restore a glimmer of hope, but even that is very remote at 20-8 (12-4).  For Mason (22-5, 14-2), their Bracket Buster trip to Northern Iowa is more a chance to bolster an already impressive tournament resume with another quality win.

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Duquesne Playing for Tourney Return

The Maniac has made no attempt to conceal his affinity for this year's Duquesne Dukes squad.  Aside from the fact that Papa Maniac once proudly roamed the campus, it's truly one heck of a story.  Not only have they not made the Tournament in over 30 years, but considering the off-court trauma they suffered several years ago with the shootings, et. all... it's really one of the best stories no one (aside from MarchManiacs!) has been covering

If the Dukes wanna dance, they'll need a repeat of last year's win over X
.

Today they host conference giant Xavier in a battle for first place in the A-10.  Duquesnes used their mulligan last week losing to St. Bonnaventure.  Because of their complete lack of a quality non-conference win, they probably don't get another one.  Not that a loss to Xavier would be a "bad loss" by any stretch, but the only clear path for the Dukes to make their long awaited return to the promised land of post-season relevance is to win the A-10 regular season crown.

That only happens if they defend their home floor this afternoon.

MANIAC'S PICK: Xavier +5


Singelton's Injury a Brutal Blow to the 'Noles Tourney Aspirations

Can the Noles survive his loss?
This isn't how you'd like the bubble picture to gain some clarity.

However, when Florida State's Chris Singelton went down today, so too might have the Noles teetering tourney dreams.  The swingman led FSU in points, rebounds and steals.   With his season-ending injury, an already suspect offense becomes downright decimated.

So too, unfortunatly for Nole fans, might be FSU's chances to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

Despite Singelton's injury, they were able to hang on to an absolutely vital win, edging Virginia at home 63-56.  At 18-7 (8-3), FSU was edging towards "lock" status as the solid third team from the ACC, and leaving a four team pack including Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Boston College to jockey for two - possible even only ONE invitation.  However today's season-changing injury muddies the waters a bit.

It will be interesting to see how Florida State plays in their final five regular season games, as well as the ACC Tourney.  Don't forget the huge penalty the Committee levied Purdue last season after Robbie Hummel's injury - dropping them from a likely #2 seed all the way down to a #4.  Well, if Florida State's resume merited a ten or an eleven... by extension  of that logic, are they now in the NIT??

Their final five games are as follows: @Wake, @Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, @NC State.  Win three of five and all is well.  Drop three of five, and lose in the opening round of the ACC Tourney, and it is a likely NIT free-fall for Florida State.