Wake Up Calls: Making Sense of a Wacky Wednesday

The headlines will all be clamoring about the "huge upset" of #1 Wake Forest. Don't let that fool you. Yes, Wake has been playing great ball, but by no means was this the construct of a team built to run the table. When Carolina fell at BC, Indiana's 32-year stranglehold on perfection remained safe.

If nothing else, last night's Virginia Tech victory told us two things; One, the ACC is good. Expect 6 or 7 teams to dance. Virginia Tech is in that mix, and last night's win helped advance that cause. Their record isn't stellar, but look at some of their losses (an OT loss to Xavier in Puerto Rico on a 50-foot buzzer beater). Two, parity is king this season. Last year all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. Don't expect a repeat this season.

Relax Dino, It's Gonna be that kinda year...

Case in point; Arkansas defeated two Top Ten Big 12 frontrunners. The Hogs are now 0-3 in a "down" SEC. Boston College slayed UNC in shocking fashion. They then turned around and lost to Harvard. BC is at best a long shot to make the field of 65.

It is going to be a roller coaster ride to the finish, but as Dickie V so incessantly reminds us. "at least we find out the champion on the court."

Amen Dickie.

Wednesday Recap:

Clemson's pasting in Chapel Hill told the nation what Tiger fans were hoping to suppress; "here we go again." The Tigers were ranked as high as ninth, deservedly so, but after their past two less-than-impressive performances against the conference big boys their reputation takes a huge ding. Not only that, but if they suffer a few losses to the likes of Va Tech, NC State, Miami and FSU, "bubble" talk might be appropriate in Clemson.

How in the hell did Florida lose that game?? If you haven't seen it yet, check out the youtube clip. For South Carolina, it keeps their tourney hopes buoyant, as the SEC West looks dreadful, it is not impossible to sneak in four from the east...


The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences, however their balanced parity is going to cost them bids in March. UNLV pulled off a road win at BYU last night. Both of them appear to be in decent shape to dance, despite being unranked, but New Mexico, Utah and TCU will all provide tough competition to the end. The beatings they are giving each other could drive them all down to around 9-10 conference wins. That would necessitate winning the confernce tournament to enjoy a stress-free Selction Sunday. For the rest, that is an NIT equation.

Arizona is screwed. Last night's come-from-ahead loss to instate rival Arizona State dropped the Cats to 2-5 in Pac 1o play and a long way from the bubble. The rebuilding has officially begun, only it doesn't really seem as if "rebuilding" is the proper term. "Chaos" seems more apropos. I bet Brandon Jennings is ecstatic he (couldn't get admitted) chose to play overseas... I feel badly for Chase Buddinger. He is playing really well in what appears to be a historically poor season in Tuscon when he easily could have left for the NBA last season.

The A-10 might be Xavier and the dozen dwarfs, but the games are crazy exciting. Two more went to overtime last night, with Duquesne dropping a nail-biter to St. Joes 99-98, and Charlotte nipping UMass in OT. Add in Rhode Island losing by three at Richmond and you have one heck of a balanced league. And of course, just one NCAA bid.

The SEC West is winnable at 9-7. LSU pasted 3-0 Mississippi State last night. Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss are all over the place, and who knows what to make of Arkansas. In a year of parity, their is no better example of the grab-bag between #20 and #50 in the country than in the SEC West.

The MVC has a lot of good teams. However they appear to lack a great one. I wonder if the balance in the Big 10, ACC and depth in the Big East will leave two or three sitting on the sidelines in March. Illinois State, Creighton and Evansville appeared to be the strongest early on (with some consideration for Drake as well), however Northern Iowa has stormed out to a 7-1 conference record and a two-game lead on the field. The problem? They had five losses before entering conference play. Only Marquette was ranked (the others, Iowa,Iowa St, Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming). Not exactly the way to get multiple bids for a non BCS league. The MVC's conference tournament will not only be great basketball, but very meaningful hoops as well.

And how about the Northwestern Wildcats? They rewarded the Maniac's proclamation that the Minnesota loss to Northwestern was not a "bad loss" but rather a "good win" for a good Northwestern team with a road victory over conference-unbeaten Michigan State. With their next two contests against Michigan and Indiana, it is not ridiculous to think Northwestern could put themselves squarely in NCAA Tourney conversation. If you are scoring at home the Wildcats now have wins over Florida State, Minnesota and Michigan State, three teams likely dancing in March.

And as much as we have had some bumps and bruises since it first appeared likely... the dream of the February 11th #1 vs. #2 Duke - Carolina shootout still seems possible.

So much for parity...

Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.

Bracketeering - January 19th

Now is the time of year when things start to get interesting. Every time we think we know something about a team (Minnesota's big win at Wisconsin) we turn around and find out perhaps what we thought isn't true (their subsequent loss to Northwestern). It is the time of year when our eyes become more important than box scores when evaluating teams.

For example, is Carolina's narrow road loss in a fantastically well-played game at Wake an indictment of Carolina's fallibility or simply an illustration that the ACC has three true title contenders?

Is the Big East's carnage proof that the top team are all really really good, or an indication that we may have overstated the Top Nine's "greatness?"

And what to make of the Big Ten? Is it possible that there really are nine good teams in this league, and that 8-8 does not preclude someone from tourney discussion? Penn State and Northwestern have each notched impressive victories in league play, but don't forget their body of work before conference play suggests they are just that; "good wins" and not just "bad losses for those slain.

What do we do with the best of the rest? Xavier, Butler, Memphis and Gonzaga are going to pile up some big win totals before Selection Sunday. How many of those February victories are enough to sway minds of the committee? Only Xavier and Butler has an RPI that correlates with their lofty poll status (#5 and #8 respectively), but we shall see what a full A-10 & Horizon schedule does to drag those numbers down.

There are a huge slate of show-me games over the next few weeks to make some more sense of it all, until then, enjoy this week's edition of Brackeetering.

Feel free to agree, disagree or swear at us anytime. We are only an email or comment away...

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Wake Forest - The Deacons survived and thrived in another big test Saturday at Clemson. In the past three weeks they have won at BYU and Clemson and beaten North Carolina. Jeff Teague is making a serious case for first team All-American.

2. Duke - The Dukies beat a better-than-you think FSU team, then followed it up with a solid victory over Georgetown. Another strong case for the ACC as the nation's best league in 2009. We have already set the TiVo for the Jan 28th trip to Wake Forest.

3. Pitt - Yes, the Panthers lost over the weekend at a suddenly resilient Louisville club, but by no means was that a panic button loss. The inability to get quality shots off in the last three minutes was disappointing, but the Panthers rebounded nicely with a pasting of Syracuse.

4. North Carolina - The Tarheels appear to be back on track with their second half demolition of Miami. They host Clemson Wednesday. The Tigers have lost 53 straight at Carolina. Not a typo. 53 straight.


ELITE EIGHT:

5. UConn - The Huskies caught a brief lull in the schedule, but ramp it back up this week playing Villanova and Notre Dame. For some reason, it still feels like something is missing from this UConn squad, but they certainly have Final Four/National Champion talent.

6. Michigan State - The beat keeps on as the Spartans beat two more quality opponents in Penn State and Illinois. This team looks better and better every week.

7. Oklahoma - Oklahoma spanked Texas, then turned around and beat A&M. They are perfectly deserving of a Final Four spot, but no one else fell down. If they can continue to get production from Tyler Griffin and their relatively thin bench, they will be a tough out come March.

8. Louisville - The polls seem to have caught up with March Maniacs. We had the Cards about a half dozen spots high last week, and the Cards rewarded our faith with a big win over #1 Pitt. Terrance Williams has been spectacular, and freshman Samardo Samuels seems to finally be adapting to the college game. This is still one of the two or three most talented teams in the country.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Clemson - Wake Forest handled them pretty easily in what had to be a disappointing loss for the Tigers. That memory will be easily wiped away if they can break their 53-game losing streak at the Dean Dome Wednesday.

10. Marquette - The Maniac admits to sleeping a little bit on this Marquette team. Perhaps it is the back-loaded nature of their Big East schedule that left me a little wary. They are 5-0, but only Villanova and WVU are in the "Big Nine." In my opinion, there are 4 giants in this league and Marquette hasn't seen one yet.

That said,their backcourt is probably the best in the nation; James, Lazar and McNeal are as good a trio as you will find. Only Duke and UNC can make an argument against them.

Just something to plant in the back of your mind; the Warriors close with: @ G'town, Louisville, @ UConn, @ Pitt, and Syracuse. (the first four, are in my opinion, the Four Giants). Brutal close, but the kind of finishing schedule that can legitimately earn you a #1 seed. (Not that I think they will...2-3 would be respectable).

From here, things get tough. You can argue each of these teams up or down real easily. It really is a mess from 11-30 this year. Here is my slant, with an argument for each. Feel free to argue with me.

11. UCLA - A home loss to Arizona State isn't totally inexcusable, except that ASU just lost at home to USC. Parity rears it's ugly head in the Pac-10, however I still feel pretty confident that the Bruins are the best out West.

12. Syracuse - Look, 10-6 in that conference is fine. Syracuse is 1-2 on a brutal stretch that still includes Louisville Sunday.

13. Xavier - Again, I think this team is better than they showed against Duke back in December, but all these A-10 wins are just biding time until March. That said, the Muskies notched a good win at Rhode Island (who also gave Duke fits)

14. Georgetown - Another loss this week for the Hoyas, but their losses (Duke, Pitt, Tennessee, Notre Dame) are all reasonable. Even more they are toughening losses come March.

15. Florida - Surprising pick maybe, but it is hard to ignore the entire SEC as much as pollsters have of late. Texas and Arizona State bring 4 losses to their perch, yet the Gators at 16-2 remain unranked. Their two losses? A close neutral-courter to Syracuse and a 2 point loss to Florida State. They have ripped off a dozen in row and Nick Calathes seems to be settling in as a true leader of this club.

16. Butler- You know my stance on Butler. That said, you have to admit their steady focus in what is supposed to be a "down year" is impressive.

Closing In...
Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Cal, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Kentucky, Texas, Illinois, Minnesota, Florida State, Memphis, Villanova, Purdue, Tennessee

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Siena, VMI, Liberty, George Mason, VCU, UTEP, Davidson, Missouri, Utah St, Illinois St, Penn St, Stephen F. Austin, Illinois St, Creighton