10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift

Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true.  There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."

Take Duke for example.  The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list.  Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested.  Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.

For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.

In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory.  Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form.  Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade.   If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations.  Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons.   Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.

For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:

10.  UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll.  Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid.  It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one.  With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.

9.  The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State.  Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule.  Ditto for Arkansas.  It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.

8.  The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans.  After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe. 

Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...

7.  The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine.   As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"

Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast.  What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four.  UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly.  Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0.  The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.

Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.

Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.

6.  Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams  being led by some simply stunning freshman.  Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies.  If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY.  Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.

Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team

5.  Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes.  To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings.  Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite.  Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.

4.  Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys."  This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga.  Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference.  They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments.  Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games.  At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.

3.  Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year.  San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke.  Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four. 

BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road.  The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way. 

Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season.  (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).

2.  The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops.  Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up.  Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue.  Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance). 

Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play.  Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games.  For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.

1.  Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?

Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table.  I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game.  Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.

After the injury?  I'm still not backing off.  Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago.  With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense.  Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.

I love this team and how it is constructed.  The most interesting thing about Duke?  They won the title last year.  This year's team is better.  Next year?  The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)

Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming.  Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits.  I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game.  Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.

Texas Freshman Hitting Stride

Jared Sullinger gets the headlines.  Kyrie Irving and his toe dominate the conversation.  The trio of Terrance Jones, Brandin Knight and Doron Lamb have fans in Lexington talking Final Four.  Somewhere amidst all the freshman chaos Texas's duo of Corey Joseph and Tristan Thompson usually get overlooked.
A notice to the Big Twelve; ignore the Longhorns at your own peril. 

No team in the country disapointed more last season than the Texas Longhorns.  Ranked #1 in the country just after Christmas, Rick Barnes's club impolded down the stretch, scraping to even make the tournament before bowing out ungracefully in a first round stinker to Wake Forest.  Perhaps last season's meltdown was the perfect primer to a successful 2010-2011.

Expectations were significantly lower this year in Austin, a scenario that suited Rick Barnes just fine.  With expectations and the pressure dialed well down this season the Longhorns are begininng to blossom into a team to be reckoned with come March.

Granted, Texas suffered the rather inexplicable blowout loss to USC several weeks ago, but every team gets a mulligan over the course of the season.  Removing that blemish from the record and you are left with one of the more impressive pre-conference performances in the country.  It began with an impressive victory over Illinois in one of the season's best played contests to date.  The following night, the true definition of "quality loss" as they fell on a last second bucket to Pitt in front of an electrified Madison Square Garden. 

This past week the Longhorns really hit their stride, posting back-to-back road wins at North Carolina and Michigan State.  Adding Illinois and looking ahead to a Jan 8th matchup with UConn, Texas will have a real opportunity to build the kind of profile that merits a Top 4 seed come March.

A big reason for Texas's success has been the play of Thompson and Joseph.  Averaging just over 11 points each doesn't explode off the page, but their contributions in all facets of the game have been the perfect compliment to the emergence of Jordan Hamilton as a legit National POY candidate.

The Big 12 is loaded this year.  Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Missouri have shown themselves to all legitimate Final Four contenders.  After this week's performances it's time to add Texas to that list.

Memphis Finally Exposed in Blowout Loss to Georgetown

A loss to the Georgetown Hoyas is nothing to be ashamed of.  We've had them as high as #4 in Bracketeering and fully expect them to challenge for the championship in the once-again loaded BEast.

However last night's 17-point blowout loss will finally force a spotlight on the Memphis Tigers and reveal something most college hoops experts have known for weeks.  Memphis isn't very good.  Not only are they nowhere close to the 13th best team in the country as AP and Coaches polls suggest, they may not even be the smart favorite to win an improving Conference USA.

The Tigers entered with a strong record at 9-1, but dig a little deeper and one quickly finds very little substance in terms of opponents and several reasons to be very alarmed in regard to how narrowly they escaped against some poor competition.

The Tigers' best win was an early four point home win over Miami (FL).  Their lone loss was a double digit loss to Kansas, who when it is all said and done could wind up winning Bill Self his second ring in four years.  The Jayhawks are certainly on the short list (with Ohio State and possibly Syracuse and Pitt) of teams that could give Duke a run.  Nothing alarming about a loss at KU.

The rest of the "wins" are wins in title only.  The eye test reveals losing efforts by an overrated team.  The Tigers required overtime to beat lowly Arkansas State (4-8) and needed an extra frame to down Austin Peay (8-6) at home.  Several nights ago they needed a late rally to defeat Texas A&M Corpus Christi.  The record might have read 9-1 but anyone actually watching the games couldn't possibly think they were seeing one of the Top 20 teams in the country.

Last night Georgetown finally put a score to match what had long been evident.  The Hoyas, behind All American candidate Austin Freeman's 24 points, jumped out to an early lead and never relented.  The final score, 86-69 was even a little closer than the actual game.  Georgetown dominated from opening tip to the final horn.

Memphis still has a game with rival Tennessee before diving headlong into conference play.  Southern Miss, UCF and UAB are all off to solid starts and could be legitimate obstacles to the league crown.  After missing the tournment last year, a second straight ommison would be nearly unthinkable for the Tiger faithful and could make second-year coach Josh Pastner's seat pretty warm. 

My personal opinion is that the program is in great hands with Pastner, who is doing a good job of rebuilding after the carnage of Hurricane Calipari blew out of town, taking the nation's top recruiting class with him.  However this season might still be a rebuiding one rather than the "rebuilt" program that some of the early rankings might have lured fans into believeing. 

Washington State and Butler Look Strong in Advancing

Perhaps reports of the Bulldogs demise were a bit premature.  After looking lost early in the season without departed star Gordon Hayward, Butler appears to finally be hitting their stride.

Butler cruised to the finals in the Diamondhead Classic in Honolulu after dispatching Florida State last night 67-64.  The game wasn't as close as the score as Butler held a double digit lead for most of the second half.  Butler was led by some familiar faces as Shelvin Mack scored 17 and Matt Howard added 19.

Butler's opponent in the final might be surprising to some (but not us at MarchManiacs.com, not to toot our prognosticating horn but HONK HONK).  Washington State and Klay Thompson defeated #15 Baylor, despite 29 points by LaceDarius Dunn.

Washington State appears poised to enter the Top 25 for the first time under coach Ken Bone, regardless of Christmas Day's outcome.  Wazzou sits at 10-1, with quality wins over Baylor, Mississippi State and Gonzaga; the last two in absolutely dominating fashion.

Things were looking a little bleak in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse after an early season blowout loss at Louisville and the subsequent loss to lowly Evansville.  The 12-point loss at Duke was actually an encouraging sign, and a two-point loss to Xavier is nothing to be ashamed of, but a 4-4 record was.  Given the relative weakness of the Horizon League, Butler was facing the very real possibility of needing to win their conference tournament to even get a chance to repeat their National Final run of a year ago.

Now, at 8-4 with consecutive wins over Florida State, Utah and Stanford the future is looking a little brighter.  A win Saturday over Wazzou would be huge, as the Bulldogs won't see another ranked opponent the remainder of the season.

Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd

After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play.  If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.

Harvard @ UConn -13:  The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated.  It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition.  However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts.  Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good.  Gimme the Huskies big.

UCF -3.5 @ UMass:  If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights.  After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad.  UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall. 

This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball.  I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor.  I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.

Texas @ Michigan State -6.5:  Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March.  They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph.  Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season.  Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up.  Gimme the Longhorns and the points.

Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5:  Is this line a typo??  I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong.  It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width...  Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier.  This is my first lock of the year.

Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5:  Don't sleep on the Dragons.  They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center.  They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome.  Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League.  I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.

For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST.  For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!

Butler -8 @ Utah,  Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga


Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1

Diamond Head Classic Quiet Christmas Gem

Lost amidst football bowl season, NBA Christmas festvities and NFL playoff pushes is a quiet college basketball gem in Honolulu.  None of the teams in this year's Diamond Head Classic field make your eyes pop out, but with the possible exception of a very down San Diego squad, none will make you quickly avert your eyes from the screen either.

The favorites would have to be Baylor in the top half of the bracket, and Butler and Florida State in the bottom, though don't sleep on Washington State who enters the tournament at 8-1, including a 30-point thrashing of Gonzaga.

I'll take Washington State over Baylor in an upset, and Florida State over Butler in Rd 2.  In the Final, give me the 'Noles in a close game.

Tournament MVP Pick:  Klay Thompson (Washington State)