* (Maniac's Note: Each team plays all 15 teams once, and three random teams twice. Ergo, schedule really really matters when the difference is one or two wins)
The Middle of the BEast:
Nearly everyone from the Big East enters conference play at 9-1, 10-1, 11-2, or 8-3 at worst. Assuming Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and UConn as tourney locks, that leaves three to an unlikely five bids likely up for grabs. So who will separate themselves from the pack and battle for bids five through eight (and possibly nine) that the conference will receive?
Cincinnati - The Cats looked great early, but have slipped the last few weeks. At 8-3, they will need to go 10-8 in conference to feel safe, but do benefit from drawing Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown and West Virginia only once. The only of the sure-fire tourney teams they get twice is UConn. If they handle the games they should win, the Cats will be in good shape in March.
Georgetown - The obvious favorite, but the Hoyas looked to be at exactly the same spot last year. The home loss to Old Dominion makes me at least aware that the Hoyas as not in lock status yet. Their mid-conference tussle with Duke is an aggressive, yet daring chance to steal a win that tips the scales in their favor should they find themselves muddled in a big group with eight to ten conference wins.
Marquette - The Eagles were the early darling after wins over Xavier and Michigan. All of a sudden, neither of those wins are over a ranked team (or tourney lock) and the losses to Florida State, Wisconsin and NC State represent the only other quality opponents en route to their 8-3 start. The Eagles will have some work to do in conference and feel like a team we will be talking about needing a win or two in the conference tourney to feel safely in the field of 65.
Notre Dame - Doesn't it feel like Luke Harangody has been here forever? The senior All-American might be feeling like he is living his career in reverse, Benjamin Snooze Button style. Each year, instead of growing up, it feels like the Irish regress. The Irish are 11-2, and like all league team, are only a 10-8 conference record away from the Big Dance. After home losses to Loyola Marymount and missing an opportunity for a quality win against Northwestern, the resume is shockingly blank. Their three best wins are probably UCLA, Long Beach State and UCF. That leaves a lot of work to be done in conference, and not much preparation for the task ahead. Looks like the "duck" of the Irish might do them in this season.
St John's - It is easy to be a little down on the Johnnies after their 71-66 loss to Cornell, but as our faithful readers already know, Cornell is really good. I'm calling my shot three months early and tagging them the 13 seed to be afraid of. Their only other loss is a respectable 9-pointer to Duke. They have wins over Temple and Siena. Only the Owls give them a chip to play outside of conference wins they amass. It is going to take 10-8, and I'm not sure they are quite good enough to get that many wins, but 8 or 9 and a bubble perch is not out of the question. The scheduling Gods have done them a favor, as they play each of the top five teams in conference (the four locks and G'Town) only once each. They get L'ville, Pitt and DePaul twice.
Louisville - What to make of Pitino and the Cards? They are the toughest team to get a read on. The were blasted by Charlotte and Western Carolina at home. They have beaten the hell out of Oral Roberts and Western Kentucky who have some good wins on their resumes. The Jan 2nd game against Kentucky provides an opportunity to gain some desperatly needed confidence and momentum. Assuming they do not pull the upset, the Cards have left themselves a lot of work to do in conference play. The Big East is a tough place to do that. They get Syracuse and UConn twice, and go to Morgantown in their lone shot at the Mountaineers.
Seton Hall - The Pirates were the trendy pick preseason to make the "leap" into the top half of the BEast. They might, but so far The Maniac just doesn't see it. Their best wins are Cornell and UMass. They really haven't played the schedule to prepare them for what is coming. I think everyone might get a preview of that tomorrow when they play WVU. They play WVU twice, but go to 'Nova, to G'town and to UConn in their lone meetings. That is a recipe for losses and a lack of quality wins over ranked opponents. It has the makings of a Providence 2008-2009 like resume for the Pirates. However, the one saving grace might be the final four conference games are all very winnable. That late momentum surge could pop the bubble in the Pirates favor.
Pitt - Was it really ten months ago the Panthers were ranked #1 in the nation?!? It feels like a lot longer, not just for me, but also for Jamie Dixon. The young Panthers have looked good at times, beating Wichita State and playing a good first half against Texas, but their resume is really thin. A double-digit loss to Indiana is a sub-RPI 100 loss and it is hard to imagine them picking up more than 7-8 wins in conference, though home&home's with St Johns and Seton Hall might give them a chance to earn a bid in a mano y mano y mano slugfest.
South Florida - An easy team to dismiss into the bottom four (with Rutgers, Providence and DePaul) if you haven't watched them play, but the Bulls are a much improved, and talent laden squad. They have an NBA-caliber talent in Dominque Jones, and are sitting at 10-2. They have wins over San Diego and Virginia and lost by just three to South Carolina and Central Michigan. They will have do some real work in conference, but the Bulls are no longer the gimme they might have been in past years. They get St. Johns and Notre Dame twice, so if the Bulls want it there is a chance to go take it.
Maniac's Crystal Ball:
IN: Georgetown, Cincinnati
BUBBLE IN: Louisville (Seton Hall, St. John's or Notre Dame) - IF eight or nine, depends a lot on conference tourneys and the Pac-10's sepatation in league play
BUBBLE OUT: South Florida, Marquette
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