Bayl-ed Out at the Buzzer

My spellchecker seriously hates my article titles.  My Mom doesn't understand them.  Yet, despite the obstacles I still continue to strive to provide you, my loyal readers, some of the most terrible puns and forced "clever" headlines on the web. 

Baylor picked up a critical win today.

You're welcome.

It is safe to assume the Baylor Bears are feeling some gratitude as well today after keeping their at-large hopes breathing with an overtime, last-second tip-in win at Texas A&M.

For Baylor it was an absolutely critical win coming off the surprising and disappointing loss at Oklahoma. For Texas A&M, it's their fourth loss in five games since cracking the Top 10 (no need to any clever headlines to say told ya' so... because, well... yeah).   It isn't quite panic time yet in College Stattion, but coupled with Kansas State's dramatic win over Iowa State on a Jacob Pullen game winner, things are getting a little congested in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.

Up next for Baylor is MUST win visit from Nebraska and then a trip to Austin next Saturday to take on the red-hot Longhorns. Texas A&M will try to get things back on track as they enter an enormously critical five game stretch that features only one team with a shot (unlikely, but a shot) to make the Dance in Oklahoma State.  Anything less than 3-2 puts them squarely on the bubble and makes closing with back to back trips to Baylor and Kansas even more daunting.

.

Oregon Cedes From the Union, First Captures Neighboring Washington

In a bizarre night in Pac-10 hoops, both Oregon and Oregon State pulled off surprising upsets.  The two teams, mired in the bottom dregs of the less-than-fantastic Pac 10 knocked off their neighbors to the North, Washington State and Washington respectively.

While road losses to lesser teams have been happening with stunning frequency over the past two weeks, the Pac-10 teams may not have the same leeway and forgiveness for bad losses that most of their BCS conference brethren enjoy.

For Washington, things are still OK, though their assumed automatic spot in the Field of 68 is becoming less and less secure with each bad conference loss.  For Washington State, the progress gained in their weekend win over their instate rivals was diminshed, if not all together erased by their humiliating 67-43 loss to Oregon.  It was the most lopsided win in five years for the 11-11 (4-6) for the struggling Ducks and likely put a final nail in any slim at-large hopes Washington State still clung too.

Washington State has a weekend trip to Oregon State and visits from Stanford and Cal to try and get back on track.  For Washington, they will attempt to snap their two-game losing streak Saturday at Oregon, then have home visits in reverse order from the two aforementioned squads.
.

The Life of a Star... and the Lack of One for Everyone Else

Seriously, can we just play the damn Superbowl already??  ESPN has been plastering commentary and interview regarding Ben Rothliesberger's visit to a piano bar five days before the Big Game and arguing over if Ben should have been there because of some "trouble" he found himself in before the season.

Of course in the era of absurd celeb-stalking morons spawned from the hell's lair of TMZ, there is even some video footage of the completely innocuous and legal "night on the town."

Oh Heavens - Another Big Ben scandal!!

In other news, several Packers have invited their girlfriends to attend the game and they aren't even married, and one of the Steelers' players mother has been found to have plagarized another teammates mother's guacamole recipe.

Seriously - GET A LIFE!!!!

Ok, I'll dismount my soapbox and get back to college hoops now.

.

If Only We Could All be so "Off"

This is how you can tell proof-positive that Jimmer Fredette has clearly emerged as the nation's premier college basketball player and an almost sure-thing Naismith Award winner.

Not really a relevant pic, but are you complaining??

Nearly every major media outlet, sports website and talking head reported some variation on the "off night for Jimmer Fredette" two nights ago against Wyoming.  The senior scoring machine finished the game with 26 points in leading his team to a road conference win.

Granted, his shooting percentage was easily his lowest of the season, but 26 points on the road in a winning effort is about as amazing as a "bad game" gets.

A few more games as "awful" as that one, and Jimmer mania might truly get out of hand.

.

When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

.

A Goude, No Make That a Great Win

North Carolina fans certainly know Andrew Goudelock.  Hopefully NCAA Tournament fans will get to enjoy the same pleasure this March.

The College of Charleston senior star poured in 25 points tonight as his College of Charleston moved to 9-2 in the better-than advertised Southern Conference, hammering reigning champ Wofford (12-11, 9-3), by a score of 79-54.  The win completes a season sweep for CoC, and positions the Cougars well for earning the top seed in the SoCon Tournament.

College of Charleston has lost to some daunting foes, Maryland, North Carolina (in a game that looked like it could be a repeat of last year's thrilling upset until the final minute saw the Tarheels pull away), and Clemson.  However, with the weakness of the bottom half of the SoCon, and the Cougars relatively light schedule outside of the ACC battery, their RPI is probably too low (91st) to merit at-large consideration.

23.5 ppg, 4.5 assists and 48% shooting?  That's All-American numbers.

If you haven't seen Goudelock play, you are really missing out.  On the season he is averaging an impressive 23.5 points a night on an even more impressive 48.5% shooting.  Even MORE impressive than that??  The 6'2'' guard averages 4.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and is shooting over 41% from behind the arc. 

As a hoops fans who has followed Goudelock's career the past two seasons, I hope the reigning SoCon player of the year gets a chance to bring his Jimmer Fredette light-esque game to the big stage of the Big Dance.  It will be a real treat to watch him try to emulate SoCon great Steph Curry for some potential opening weekend magic, and certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
.

Big Win in the Horizon League, and The Butler Didn't Do It

It's been a long time since any regular season Horizon League game was truly a huge matchup.  Of late, there's been little question as to who wore the crown, it was obviously Butler's.

It's been even longer since there was a huge game in the Horizon League and Butler wasn't even playing.

Tonight's Valparaiso v. Cleveland State game was that delightful rarity.  The Vikings held off Valpo at home to earn the 76-65 win and take firm control of the conference lead.  Jeremy Montgomery and Norris Cole were enormous in the win, scoring 26 and 25 points respectively, thrilling the nearly 4,500 fans on hand to watch the battle for first place.

Capturing their sixth straight win tonight, Cleveland State is inching into very interesting territory.  They are now 21-3 overall and 10-2 in the Horizon League.  Two weeks ago I would have said no one aside from Butler had a real chance at earning an at-large bid.  Now?  I'm starting to lean towards the side of the Vikes.  Their three losses are all very reasonable; road losses at West Virginia, Butler and Valparaiso.  Those losses are even more forgivable when you take a look at all the major conference and NCAA-likely teams who lost to their respective conference cellar-dwellers on the road this week (Kentucky, Washington, Xavier, Missouri State, Minnesota, Michigan State, VCU).  Good teams lose on the road in college.  It just happens when conference play gets rolling - even to the elite teams.

The problem with Cleveland State's at-large credentials is their complete absence of a true marquee win.  When your best out-of-conference wins are Kent State and South Florida, it leaves little room for extraneous losses.  Their RPI is a very solid #29, plenty strong enough to merit a bid, but with the weakness of their schedule (144th), even a single bad loss can send them plummeting down the rankings.

Nice pic from BradleyFans.com

Cleveland State has two enormous opportunities remaining on their schedule.  Saturday they host Butler, followed by a date at Old Dominion for Bracket Busters on Feb 20th.  Provided they can avoid a loss elsewhere, a split in those two games should be enough to get them Dancin.'

I'm just hoping they can somehow get Bobby Knight to broadcast the game if they do make the Dance so someone can ask him doggedly and repeatedly about the 1986 stunner Cleveland State unleashed on the Hoosiers.  That'd be kinda fun...

Elsewhere in the Horizon, it is safe to say Butler has officially played themselves into "must win the conference tournament" territory if they have any aspirations of repeating last year's tourney magic.  It is looking like they'll be going kNITting after tonight's 62-60 loss to lowly Youngstown State.  When asked for comment, proud Youngstown State alum Jim Tressel said, "wait, we had a basketball team?"

At this point, the Horizon is Cleveland State's to lose.  You can bet there are a host of BCS-league bubble teams hoping they don't.

.

Michigan State is a Disappointment - But Should it be THAT Shocking?

There is no question that 13-9 and on the outside of the bubble is an unusual and disappointing predicament for Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  He, and they, afterall, are one of the premier templates for consistent excellence in college basketball.

But should their less than stellar play be as big of a shock as it is being received as?

Here is an alternative viewpoint to consider.  Last year Michigan State entered the NCAA tournament at a solid 24-8, but only a 5th seed.  To place it in a different context, that would have them somewhere between the 17th and 20th best team in the country.

State's road through the NCAA Tourney was equally precarious.  In the first round, they barely dodged a big upset, slipping past #12 seed New Mexico State 70-67.  In the second round, an even more daring escape, when a desperate buzzer-beating three by Korie Lucious found the bottom of the net.  The shot was intentional, but Lucious receiving the ball certainly wasn't - a freak deflection/pass landed his way and Korie, to his credit seized the spotlight.  The Spartans won 85-83 and survived and advanced.

If this shot doesn't fall...

Korie Lucious has since been permanently dismissed from the team for an unspecified third violation of team conduct.

The Sweet Sixteen got even sweeter for the Spartans when Northern Iowa stunned top team in the country Kansas, knocking the biggest obstacle in that half of the bracket to the wayside.  Sparty took advantage of their good fortune by beating the upstart Panthers 59-52.

The Elite Eight?  Well, maybe "elite" is too grand a term in this instance.  After the bottom half of the bracket fell apart as well with Ohio State and Evan Turner and Georgetown bowing out, suddenly the "best region ever" looked a lot less daunting.  Sixth seeded Tennessee advanced to meet Michigan State with a trip to Indy on the line.  Again, more heart-palpitating last second moments smiled the way of Sparty, as they advanced with 70-69 win.

Next stop, the Final Four. In a game that set big time college basketball back to the pre-shot clock era, the Spartans finally bowed out 52-50 to Butler.

Suppose for a second that either of those first round games broke the other way with a different last-second moment of good fortune?  Would Michigan State have entered this season in the Top 5?  Top 10 even?

This season is no doubt been a disappointment.  It's just that perhaps some of the disappointment should also be shared by those of us in the prognostication business as well...

.

Quick Rundown of a few of the Night's Biggest Wins

Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved.  However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.

Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney.  Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information.  Southern Miss is a good ballclub.  And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71. 

The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings.  If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing.  However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four.  A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.

The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit.  Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season.  I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...

In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out.  UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.

In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season -  absolutely obliterate conference opponents.  This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally.  With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.

In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again.  Make sense?

Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State.  The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3).  Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume.  If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1.  That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).

Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly.  Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent. 

In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...


.

Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

.

Doubting Duke?

If only not for the volumes of articles penned by yours truly outlining the possibilities of a Duke perfect season, I might be tempted to try and gloat and slip in a few "saw this one coming" or "tough matchup for the Dukies" - or some other blithe phrases to insinuate that I, or anyone, saw today's Dukie disaster brewing.

Truth be told, very few of us (and by "us" I mean us - college hoops die-hards and knowledgeable fans and media outlets) saw Duke's now-obvious significant flaws.

But perhaps we should have.

Everyone was so enamored with Duke and their seeming-invincibility as they continued to knock off ranked opponents with relative ease.  The Kyrie Irving injury was of course a disappointing hiccup, but by no means was seen as something to derail the Dukies in their quest to repeat as National Champs.  Take a look at their three marquee non-conference wins; Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler.

Quick - name the three most disappointing teams in the nation.  If you're pressed for time, you can simply answer "ditto."  All three were in the Top Ten (or at least Top 15) in every national publication.  Today, none of the three are ranked, and frankly they aren't even close.  Butler is 5-4 in the Horizon League and in danger of missing the tourney.  Same story for K-State and their eight losses, and today Michigan State needed OT to beat Indiana at home to pull their record to 13-8 (5-4).

If Duke came dressed as an unbeatable superpower, it is worth considering that they were playing teams that have aided more than a few less-than-stellar teams in donning the same disguise.  Today's pasting by St. John's highlighted the Devil's achilles heel; if their shots don't go down, the Devils will.  They hit a few late garbage-time shots from long range to pull their final three-point shooting numbers to five of 26, or 19%.  At one point the Devils were one for nineteen.  It's tough to beat your mom in a game of horse shooting one for nineteen, let alone go on the road and knock off a Big East foe.

For St. John's the win is enormous.  In the latest MarchManiacs.com Bracketeering (to be released Monday), the Johnnies were among the first four on the outside looking in.  Hammering Duke in the fashion they did today changes that.  They are in eleventh place in the Big East, and bizarrely; it isn't that big of a deal.

It's impossible to remove Marquette, Cincinnati or West Virginia based on current data, so they stay in.  Things are likely (um, more like definite) to get insane over the final four weeks, but as of tonight, I have Lavin and the Johnnies getting in, and a record-shattering eleven BEast teams punching dance tickets.

For the Devils, nothing too dire was lost today aside from some confidence and a bit of the aura of dominance.  They will still likely win the ACC and are in as good of shape as anyone else in the country aside from Ohio State for capturing a #1 seed.

It is, however a jarring wake-up call that this season, as if the weekend hadn't already taught us, is completely up for grabs as we roll towards Selection Sunday. Unless Kyrie Irving makes a rapid and remarkable recovery, there is no prohibitive favorite.  Thank goodness college hoops settles it on the court - the BCS computers would explode...

.

Thriller in the Valley - Northern Iowa Returns the Favor

Last month it was Missouri State star Kyle Weems hitting the buzzer beater to give the Bears a one-point win at Northern Iowa.  Tonight, the Panthers returned the favor with two free throws with 5.2 seconds remaining to get the one-point win down in the Ozarks.

Weems nearly had his second game-winner.

Weems nearly served up an identical result when he hit a contested 18-foot baseline jumpshot to give the Bears the one-point lead with 18.2 on the clock.  However Northern Iowa's star Jake Koch, who had himself hit the go-ahead basket thirty seconds earlier, go a clean look from three.  The shot rimmed out, and Weems did a great job checking out a bigger man underneath, but it left 6'1'' Johnny Moran free to swoop in from the baseline corner to get a tip attempt.

Weems blocked the tip attempt, but committed the foul in the process.  Moran calmly stepped to the line and knocked home two clutch free throws that dramtically altered the future possibilities for the Panther's season.

Had Missouri State won the game, they would have moved to 10-1 in the MVC, three full games ahead of Northern Iowa.  Instead the Panthers pull even with Wichita State, with both now just one game behind Missouri State for the conference lead - and a near-certain NCAA at-large bid. 

In my projections the Valley is a two bid league, but without many marquee non-conference wins, it is very unlikely a three-bid league.  That makes tonight's dramatic win absolutely enormous for Northern Iowa and their chances to have once again conjure up some March Madness magic.  Fans in the Iowa plains are thrilled; Kansas Jayhawk fans perhaps not so much...

.
.