OK - Let's start with an explanation of this column, which will be a running feature through the last week of the regular season and conference tournaments.
The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always,
look at Georgia last year... but also look at the
last 20 years - back off dude.)
The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids
truly in play this week.
Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just
think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are
IN or
OUT.
Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.
Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.
And for the record, the Maniac
did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...
OK, onto Tha' FORTY:
Locks (in alphabetical conference order):North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, UtahThat makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or
possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And
YES, Creighton is a lock.
NO, Siena and Utah State are not.
Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, DaytonAnd then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.If you are counting, that was pick
six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).
I'll give you the
Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.
THE WHY'S:For the five "almost ins" -
Texas and
West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...
Penn State closes with Iowa;
assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.
UNLV and
Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.
UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...
That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.
Gotta love March!
Agree? Disagree? Just feel like being a prick?? Leave a comment and sign it you coward!
Oh, and screw you Rhode Island. I hope you rehire Jim Harrick and endure the three-year probation that follows his inevitable re-firing amidst scandal allegations....
