It's been a tough week to be on the top, as parity (not "upsets") reared their future "Cinderella" heads this week. Lots has happened, so let's quickly put the week on rewind.
Big Monday proved to be just that; BIG. Kansas State rendered us with just one unbeaten team remaining as they handled Texas in Manhattan. Pullen, Clemente and the Cats were impressive, but do you know what impressed me most?
Not one student stormed the court. They simply stayed and applauded and the players ran around and slapped some high fives. The message? We're happy. We're really happy. But not surprised or stunned. I loved it.
Speaking of storming the floor, Carolina has to be within striking distance of the record for "most times being in the middle of an on court celebration/mob after a loss." Seriously, at some point it might be time to recognize this team just isn't that good. Storming the court after beating UNC is just kind of embarrassing at this point...
It reminds me of a decade ago when my beloved Alma matter, UCF, travelled to Alabama and knocked off the Crimson Tide on their football team's Homecoming Game. The "biggest win in school history!!"
Never mind that the Tide went 4-8 that year. Never mind that they were a terrible football team who just happened to wear a recognizable jersey. The celebration of the win should have lasted about as long as a stack of singles in the hands of Mike Price. "Roll Tide!!" Baby!
Instead? We wrote songs about it. (think "UCF beat Alabama" to the tune of "Sweet Home Alabama" - and they say anyone could get into ucf, ha!)
I digress. But seriously, stop storming the floor after beating the Heels this year.
Down Tobacco Road, I'd have no problem with them on the floor in Raleigh after beating Duke Wednesday night. Duke has lost two straight on the road and the ACC is indeed more up for grabs than anytime in recent memory. The likely two worst teams are Boston College and Miami, and neither one is just dreadful.
The Big East is starting to seperate a bit. Marquette's loss to DePaul might be the one that pulls them under and Louisville's loss to Seton Hall last night was one the Cards really couldn't afford. Meanwhile UConn stopped their slide beating St Johns and still appears to be tourney bound. Here's wishing Calhoun a speedy recovery.
The "haves" and "have nots" are becomming clear. The muddled middle is becomming just UConn, UC, Notre Dame and St Johns. At this point, I wouldn't want to be worse than seventh in the BEast and be expecting a bid...
I promised no more Marshall talk until they won one of their "big five" on their upcoming schedule gauntlet, but their loss to West Virginia felt like a win in terms of earning respect. It was a two point game with :40 to go. I think the have a real shot hosting UAB Saturday. The Blazers are 17-2, but have some incredibly unimpressive wins including this week's one point squeeker over conference doormat So Miss.
Louisianna Tech notched their first conference loss last night to San Jose State. You can't blame that one on the Maniac's Curse (the article was weeks ago) but the odds of them recieving an at large bid went from "slim" to "next to nil".
Maniac fave William & Mary got absolutly trounced by VCU. I think the Rams (and the Tribe for that matter) are in the Best 65 in the land, but it's looking like parity might again relegate the CAA to just one bid. Add in Old Dominion and George Mason who struggled early, but leads the conference at 8-1, and even Northeastern, and you've got one heck of a quality, competitive league.
The SEC has played sone tight battles, but is starting to get the separation needed for five or six bids. Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Vandy and Miss St all won, giving the conference six legit tourney contenders. They are looking to put last year's three-bid campaign far in the rear view mirror.
"Three bids? Sold! ~ the Pac10
First and last place are still seperated by only 2 games. With the miserable pre-conference play (only USC beat anyone and, oh wait, they are on a self-imposed post season ban). That said, Cal laid the lumber to Oregon last night to move to 4-2 in league. If it wasn't for the egg they laid at Washington on Saturday I'd almost be willing to flirt with the Bears as an at large contender. Outside of them, and maybe (mayyyyybe.....) Arzona State there really are none.
The Big Ten is bunching up a bit. Ohio State is on fire with Evan Turner back (hammering NW by 20) and Purdue looks to be back on track dropping Illinois and getting back in the Big Ten mix. Only Sparty remains unbeaten and remains in firm control of the league. Spots two through seven are up for grabs...
It's been a busy but telling week. It feels like it is almost time to drum up a mock bracket for next week....
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Big East Pitfalls
There's just so little time to read one's own headlines when one plays in the BEast.
Pitt suffered their first conference loss tonight, at home to Georgetown. The Hoyas never blew them out, but did control the game much of the way. For Pitt, it is a bit of a reality dose; they aren't the best team in that league. In my humble opinion I still think Syracuse and Villanova are better (yes, I know they beat the Cuse on their own floor), and think there is little seperation between them, Georgetown and West Virginia. It's not a knock on Pitt, just an honest assessment from watching all five teams play three, four or five times each.
But now we get to find out HOW good they really are when they bounce back from their first setback. They have three they should win. Will they get up quick, stay focused and keep the pressure on the top of the league?
G'Town: Rutgers, @Syracuse, Duke (show me time for the Hoyas too, huh?!?)
Pitt suffered their first conference loss tonight, at home to Georgetown. The Hoyas never blew them out, but did control the game much of the way. For Pitt, it is a bit of a reality dose; they aren't the best team in that league. In my humble opinion I still think Syracuse and Villanova are better (yes, I know they beat the Cuse on their own floor), and think there is little seperation between them, Georgetown and West Virginia. It's not a knock on Pitt, just an honest assessment from watching all five teams play three, four or five times each.
But now we get to find out HOW good they really are when they bounce back from their first setback. They have three they should win. Will they get up quick, stay focused and keep the pressure on the top of the league?
UP NEXT:
Pitt: @Seton Hall, St John's, @USFG'Town: Rutgers, @Syracuse, Duke (show me time for the Hoyas too, huh?!?)
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His Heirness Plays Perfect Game in UCF Win
Color me among the many who greeted the arrival of Marcus Jordan to UCF with little more than a cursory curiosity. Count me also among the lengthening line to pat him on the back...and not just because I want his Dad to snag me some sneakers.
Let's put the "sneaker" controversy to rest and give Marcus some credit.
The dude can play.
Tonight he was perfect in leading the Knights to a surprising win at Houston. Perfect. As in 9 for 9 from the floor. No turnovers. 23 points. He did miss a free throw (4 of 5), but I think we can let him slide.
Kudos to Marcus. Perhaps someday soon, simply "Marcus" will suffice.
Let's put the "sneaker" controversy to rest and give Marcus some credit. The dude can play.
Tonight he was perfect in leading the Knights to a surprising win at Houston. Perfect. As in 9 for 9 from the floor. No turnovers. 23 points. He did miss a free throw (4 of 5), but I think we can let him slide.
Kudos to Marcus. Perhaps someday soon, simply "Marcus" will suffice.
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Maniac's Midseason POY Ballot
Greetings my loyal readers. Some of you might be wondering why this column is about two weeks late, and it is because I have been waiting patiently by my mailbox for my Player of the Year ballot. After reluctantly accepting it might not make it to me this year...again, I have decided to just cast away into cyberspace.
As always, we enjoy the emails of dissent and a solid, intelligent case for your guy...
G- Jimmer Fredette (BYU) -
The Numbers: 19.9 ppg, 5.1 asst, 48.4% FG
The Reason: The Cougars are 18-1 and poised to make some real noise in the tourney this year. Fredette has been sensational scoring the basketball, but still an adept floor general and distributor all season. Add in he is shooting nearly 50% from the floor, despite being a 6'2'' point guard, and it is hard to understate how solid his play has been. The 49-point outburst earlier in December got people's attention, but it has been his steady play since that merits All-American consideration.
G- Aubrey Coleman (Houston) -
The Numbers: 25.0 ppg, 7.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists
The Reason: The numbers speak for themselves, simply gaudy totals. Houston has some work to do to make the tourney... ok, they are likely not an NCAA tournament team. That shouldn't discount the sensational play of Coleman, who is scoring against quality competition night in and night out. It is also worth noting that the 7.3 rebounds a night are coming from a 6'4'' guard. Folks, that's gettin' it done.
G- Jerome Dyson (UConn) -
The Numbers: 18.6 ppg, 4.8 asst, 5.1 rebounds
The Reason: There aren't many players doing more for their team than Dyson so far this season. Add in the fact he is one of the five best defensive small guards in the country and you have an All-American. UConn has hit a bit of a slide as they continue to look for another scorer to compliment he and Stanley Robinson, but that doesn't discount the outstanding all around play of Dyson.
F/C- Quincy Pondexter (Washington) -
The Numbers: 20.1 ppg, 7.9 asst, 56.5% FG
The Reason: Yet another stud performer on a team that has disappointed. Had Washington lived up to pre-season hype, Pondexter would likely be second, or even first team consideration. That said, part of an All-American's resume is leading a team to victory, and he will still have his chance in what is becoming a must-win Pac-10 if the Huskies hope to dance.
F/C- Luke Babbitt (Nevada) -
The Numbers: 19.9 ppg, 9.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists
The Reason: I would have listened to arguments for Pat Patterson, DeMarcus Cousins, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis and a few others for the last two spots on this team. In the end, give me Babbitt's versatility and huge production numbers. Plus, his throwback-game is just so fun to watch.
G- John Scheyer (Duke) -
The Numbers: 18.9 ppg, 6.1 asst, 3.6 rebounds
The Reason: Perhaps no player has been more instrumental to making sure a team wins than Scheyer. His leading the nation in assist to turnover ratio is well documented, as is his "non-natural" point guard status. Lost in that stat is the fact this guy is the second leading scorer in the ACC and an absolute assassin shooting the basketball. One can very easily make the argument he deserves the first team spot over my first selection (intentionally omitted for dramatic effect) - and I could probably be swayed either way. Add in the fact that Scheyer is a more than capable defender, and you are looking at a true POY candidate, whether first team or not.
G- Jacob Pullen (Kansas State) -
The Numbers: 19.3 ppg, 3.6 asst, 3.1 rebounds
The Reason: Pullen has become the leader and the bearded face of the nation's most pleasant surprise (along with Pitt). Kansas State is a legit threat to win the Big 12 and capture a top two seed in the tourney. Pullen is a huge reason why. His numbers aren't as huge as other in conference (like James Anderson) but his significance to the Wildcats is unsurpassed by any player in the league.
G- Greivis Vasquez (Maryland) -
The Numbers: 18 ppg, 4.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists
The Reason: If you look at Vasquez's numbers, you will find them eerily similar to Scheyer, only with more of an impact on the boards. Granted his turnovers are higher, but he is also asked to do significantly more than Scheyer. Maryland is as good as Vasquez. End of discussion. The Terps go as he goes, and last season, it was good enough to upset UNC en route to earning an at-large tourney bid. If the Terps are dancing again in 2010, it will take more of the same. I wouldn't bet against the senior from Caracas, Venezuela having one more put-'em-on-his-back run in him.
F- James Anderson (Oklahoma State) -
The Numbers: 21.6 ppg, 5.8 reb, 1.6 steals
The Reason: Anderson is the main reason why the Cowboys will contend for an NCAA-bid this season. He is the leading scorer in the nation's #1 RPI conference, a good rebounder and defender, a willing passer and the leader of his team. He doesn't have the big name that others in the conference came into the season with, but by the end of the year, he will be a first team All-Big 12 guy, and quite possibly an All-American.
C- Omar Samhan (St. Mary's) -
The Numbers: 21.7 ppg, 10.7 rebounds, 2.4 blocks
The Reason: The pudgy big guy lurking under the basket while the Patty Mills Show took place has evolved into one of the most reliable back to the basket scoring threats in the country. St. Mary's is poised to get to the tourney, something they failed to do last year with Mills, and Samhan's scoring, rebounding, defense and leadership is the major reason why.
First Team
G- Scottie Reynolds (Villanova) -
The Numbers: 19.5 ppg, 3.6 asst, 1.6 steals
The Reason: Reynolds seems to have slid out of mainstream consciousness in his senior year, though it is hard to figure out why. He burst onto the scene as a freshman scoring sensation in what seems like a dozen years ago. In today's one-and-done college superstar fiefdom, sometimes the slightly undersized to go pro early guy gets a little undervalued. Suffice it to say Jay Wright knows precisely the value of the little floor general and assassin who shot the 'Cats into last years Final Four. Very few teams have a guy who is their best ballhandler, a reliable distributor and an absolute stone-cold Kobe-like killer with the clock winding down. Don't be surprised if Reynolds loads the Cats on his back for a repeat Final Four trip this April.
G- John Wall (Kentucky) -
The Numbers: 17.1 ppg, 7.1 asst
The Reason: Perhaps the no-brainer of the year, John Wall is really good. His preternatural poise in the big moment and transcendent quickness have left more than a few scouts calling him the best college point guard in twenty years. I say slowwww down just a bit with all that, but for now, simply enjoy the play of this gifted scorer and floor general.
F- Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) -
The Numbers: 17.7 ppg, 8.7 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 55% FG
The Reason: The 'Cuse are a national title contender because of the dimension Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson brings. He scores inside and out, rebounds, passes and gives Boeheim another long, quick defender to employ on the back of that vaunted zone. He might be the most surprising on the First Team from a preseason expectation standpoint, but he is certainly well deserving. Look at that stat line (and shooting percentage) and you see clearly he is one of the best, most versatile players in the game.
F/C- Luke Harangody (Notre Dame) -
The Numbers: 24.7 ppg, 9.8 rebounds
The Reason: It's a shame Notre Dame isn't very good at the guard spot, because Harangody is once again putting up National POY type numbers. He is on pace to become the leading scorer in the HISTORY of the Big East conference and is the only reason the Irish aren't muddling down with Rutgers and South Florida in the BEast basement. His game may not be anything resembling conventional, but his production is simply out of this world.
F- Damion James (Texas) -
The Numbers: 17.3 ppg, 11.1 rebounds
The Reason: Avery Bradley gets a lot of the ink, but Damion James is the leader of what might be the best team in the country. Texas is deep and talented with no player averaging more then 28 minutes a game, which makes the production of James even more impressive.
G/F- Evan Turner (Ohio State) -
The Numbers: 16.6 ppg, 9.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 58.3% FG
The Reason: John Wall gets all the hype. But Evan Turner simply does more on the floor than any player in the country, and does it shockingly efficiently. With his healthy return, Ohio State went from also-ran to title contender (yes, I said title contender, though they lack a back-to-the basket scoring presence).
His numbers are simply incredible, but his steadiness and floor leadership are even more impressive. If John Wall is the engine that drives the Cats from the point guard position, than Turner is the engine that drives the Bucks from the "point forward" spot. Also take into consideration the low-scoring, lesser-possession nature of the Big Ten play and figure his numbers spike at least 20% playing in any other major conference.
Even Turner is the best all around player in the country, and despite missing a few weeks, the March Maniacs Mid-Season Player of the Year.
As always, we enjoy the emails of dissent and a solid, intelligent case for your guy...
Third Team:
G- Jimmer Fredette (BYU) -
The Numbers: 19.9 ppg, 5.1 asst, 48.4% FG
The Reason: The Cougars are 18-1 and poised to make some real noise in the tourney this year. Fredette has been sensational scoring the basketball, but still an adept floor general and distributor all season. Add in he is shooting nearly 50% from the floor, despite being a 6'2'' point guard, and it is hard to understate how solid his play has been. The 49-point outburst earlier in December got people's attention, but it has been his steady play since that merits All-American consideration.
G- Aubrey Coleman (Houston) -
The Numbers: 25.0 ppg, 7.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists
The Reason: The numbers speak for themselves, simply gaudy totals. Houston has some work to do to make the tourney... ok, they are likely not an NCAA tournament team. That shouldn't discount the sensational play of Coleman, who is scoring against quality competition night in and night out. It is also worth noting that the 7.3 rebounds a night are coming from a 6'4'' guard. Folks, that's gettin' it done.
G- Jerome Dyson (UConn) -
The Numbers: 18.6 ppg, 4.8 asst, 5.1 rebounds
The Reason: There aren't many players doing more for their team than Dyson so far this season. Add in the fact he is one of the five best defensive small guards in the country and you have an All-American. UConn has hit a bit of a slide as they continue to look for another scorer to compliment he and Stanley Robinson, but that doesn't discount the outstanding all around play of Dyson.
F/C- Quincy Pondexter (Washington) -
The Numbers: 20.1 ppg, 7.9 asst, 56.5% FG
The Reason: Yet another stud performer on a team that has disappointed. Had Washington lived up to pre-season hype, Pondexter would likely be second, or even first team consideration. That said, part of an All-American's resume is leading a team to victory, and he will still have his chance in what is becoming a must-win Pac-10 if the Huskies hope to dance.
F/C- Luke Babbitt (Nevada) -
The Numbers: 19.9 ppg, 9.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists
The Reason: I would have listened to arguments for Pat Patterson, DeMarcus Cousins, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis and a few others for the last two spots on this team. In the end, give me Babbitt's versatility and huge production numbers. Plus, his throwback-game is just so fun to watch.
Second Team:
G- John Scheyer (Duke) -
The Numbers: 18.9 ppg, 6.1 asst, 3.6 rebounds
The Reason: Perhaps no player has been more instrumental to making sure a team wins than Scheyer. His leading the nation in assist to turnover ratio is well documented, as is his "non-natural" point guard status. Lost in that stat is the fact this guy is the second leading scorer in the ACC and an absolute assassin shooting the basketball. One can very easily make the argument he deserves the first team spot over my first selection (intentionally omitted for dramatic effect) - and I could probably be swayed either way. Add in the fact that Scheyer is a more than capable defender, and you are looking at a true POY candidate, whether first team or not.
G- Jacob Pullen (Kansas State) - The Numbers: 19.3 ppg, 3.6 asst, 3.1 rebounds
The Reason: Pullen has become the leader and the bearded face of the nation's most pleasant surprise (along with Pitt). Kansas State is a legit threat to win the Big 12 and capture a top two seed in the tourney. Pullen is a huge reason why. His numbers aren't as huge as other in conference (like James Anderson) but his significance to the Wildcats is unsurpassed by any player in the league.
G- Greivis Vasquez (Maryland) -
The Numbers: 18 ppg, 4.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists
The Reason: If you look at Vasquez's numbers, you will find them eerily similar to Scheyer, only with more of an impact on the boards. Granted his turnovers are higher, but he is also asked to do significantly more than Scheyer. Maryland is as good as Vasquez. End of discussion. The Terps go as he goes, and last season, it was good enough to upset UNC en route to earning an at-large tourney bid. If the Terps are dancing again in 2010, it will take more of the same. I wouldn't bet against the senior from Caracas, Venezuela having one more put-'em-on-his-back run in him.
F- James Anderson (Oklahoma State) -
The Numbers: 21.6 ppg, 5.8 reb, 1.6 steals
The Reason: Anderson is the main reason why the Cowboys will contend for an NCAA-bid this season. He is the leading scorer in the nation's #1 RPI conference, a good rebounder and defender, a willing passer and the leader of his team. He doesn't have the big name that others in the conference came into the season with, but by the end of the year, he will be a first team All-Big 12 guy, and quite possibly an All-American.
C- Omar Samhan (St. Mary's) -
The Numbers: 21.7 ppg, 10.7 rebounds, 2.4 blocks
The Reason: The pudgy big guy lurking under the basket while the Patty Mills Show took place has evolved into one of the most reliable back to the basket scoring threats in the country. St. Mary's is poised to get to the tourney, something they failed to do last year with Mills, and Samhan's scoring, rebounding, defense and leadership is the major reason why.
First Team
G- Scottie Reynolds (Villanova) -
The Numbers: 19.5 ppg, 3.6 asst, 1.6 steals
The Reason: Reynolds seems to have slid out of mainstream consciousness in his senior year, though it is hard to figure out why. He burst onto the scene as a freshman scoring sensation in what seems like a dozen years ago. In today's one-and-done college superstar fiefdom, sometimes the slightly undersized to go pro early guy gets a little undervalued. Suffice it to say Jay Wright knows precisely the value of the little floor general and assassin who shot the 'Cats into last years Final Four. Very few teams have a guy who is their best ballhandler, a reliable distributor and an absolute stone-cold Kobe-like killer with the clock winding down. Don't be surprised if Reynolds loads the Cats on his back for a repeat Final Four trip this April.
G- John Wall (Kentucky) -
The Numbers: 17.1 ppg, 7.1 asst
The Reason: Perhaps the no-brainer of the year, John Wall is really good. His preternatural poise in the big moment and transcendent quickness have left more than a few scouts calling him the best college point guard in twenty years. I say slowwww down just a bit with all that, but for now, simply enjoy the play of this gifted scorer and floor general.
F- Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) -
The Numbers: 17.7 ppg, 8.7 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 55% FG
The Reason: The 'Cuse are a national title contender because of the dimension Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson brings. He scores inside and out, rebounds, passes and gives Boeheim another long, quick defender to employ on the back of that vaunted zone. He might be the most surprising on the First Team from a preseason expectation standpoint, but he is certainly well deserving. Look at that stat line (and shooting percentage) and you see clearly he is one of the best, most versatile players in the game.
F/C- Luke Harangody (Notre Dame) -
The Numbers: 24.7 ppg, 9.8 rebounds
The Reason: It's a shame Notre Dame isn't very good at the guard spot, because Harangody is once again putting up National POY type numbers. He is on pace to become the leading scorer in the HISTORY of the Big East conference and is the only reason the Irish aren't muddling down with Rutgers and South Florida in the BEast basement. His game may not be anything resembling conventional, but his production is simply out of this world.
F- Damion James (Texas) -
The Numbers: 17.3 ppg, 11.1 rebounds
The Reason: Avery Bradley gets a lot of the ink, but Damion James is the leader of what might be the best team in the country. Texas is deep and talented with no player averaging more then 28 minutes a game, which makes the production of James even more impressive.
Player of the Year:
The Numbers: 16.6 ppg, 9.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 58.3% FG
The Reason: John Wall gets all the hype. But Evan Turner simply does more on the floor than any player in the country, and does it shockingly efficiently. With his healthy return, Ohio State went from also-ran to title contender (yes, I said title contender, though they lack a back-to-the basket scoring presence).
His numbers are simply incredible, but his steadiness and floor leadership are even more impressive. If John Wall is the engine that drives the Cats from the point guard position, than Turner is the engine that drives the Bucks from the "point forward" spot. Also take into consideration the low-scoring, lesser-possession nature of the Big Ten play and figure his numbers spike at least 20% playing in any other major conference.
Even Turner is the best all around player in the country, and despite missing a few weeks, the March Maniacs Mid-Season Player of the Year.
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Big Night in the A-10
Tonight is a huge night of hoops for the nation's sixth best conference. No, we're not talking about the Pac-10, or even the Mountain West, but none other than the Atlantic-10. Depending on whom you believe, if the season ended today the A-10 would have four or even five teams in the Field of 65. Tonight's games gives us a good glimpse at some of the best, and also some of the middle of the pack slugging it out for position.
The marquee matchup takes place in Phily, where the 4-0 Xavier Musketeers visit the similarly unbeaten Temple Owls. Both teams seem likely tourney teams though Temple is much more of a lock than X at this point. Xavier has taken some losses, but none of them "bad" losses; double-OT at Wake Forest, at Kansas State (who just beat Texas), Baylor and Marquette on a neutral floor, Butler on the road on a controversial ending. Their overall profile, RPI (16th) and momentum (and pedigree, though it isn't supposed to matter) scream tourney team.
Tonight's game is huge for Temple, who can take control of the conference and legitimately start thinking Top 4 seed with a win tonight. The game is equally big for the Muskies, who have had a lot of close calls, but aside from the double-OT win over Cincinnati, lack a real marquee win. A quality road win against a ranked opponent does wonders for the RPI and national profile, as does taking control of the league.
Temple will look to wrestle control of the A-10 tonight hosting Xavier
Dayton also looks like as solid tourney team to me, but faces a tricky visit from GW tonight. The Flyers should win and keep pace in the A-10, but a game like tonight, against the 7th or 8th best team in the league, shows how good and deep the A-10 is in 2010.
It is a similar situation for Rhode Island when they host dissapointing Duquesne tonight. The Dukes were just a few minutes away from earning the league's NCAA bid last year, before falling to Temple in the closing minutes. With a lot of key cogs back, expectations were high in Pittsburgh. Suffice it to say they haven't been met. Since gagging up a win in double-OT against Pitt, the Dukes have gone 4-6, 0-3 in conference. Still, they have some talent and are much more of a threat than most league's cellar dwellers. It will be interesting to see how routinely the Rams handle their business.
Xavier v. Temple is the best game. The most intriguing game is Charlotte at Richmond. If a fifth team does sneak in from the A-10, it is likely one of these two. Richmond has the conference's best out of league glamour win collection, with wins over Florida, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. However they have already lost to St. Louis in conference and had tougher-than-expected tussles with UMass and Lasalle.
Charlotte opened some eyes with the beatdown they laid on Louisville in Freedom Hall, but also boasts a 42-point loss to Duke to go with 33'er to Old Dominion and a 18-spot to Tennessee. If the committee looks at margin, this screams of a team that might embarass you if you select them. However, a win tonight brings them to 4-1 in the A-10, and probably slots them slightly ahead of the Spiders on the Big Board pecking order.
A great night of hoops for fans of the Atlanic-10 - enjoy!
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Tuesday's Quick Picks - January 19th, 2010
We have a nice bevy of quality games tonight. Tennessee, America's new darling team, faces a tricky road trip trap game in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have given Purdue and Vandy fits in their gym and also beaten Michigan. I'm making no official pick on this one, but it is worth a watch as Tennessee is creeping into legitimate #1 seed discussions.
Another fantastic conference game is taking place in Atlanta tonight. I was blown away by the explosive quickness and leaping ability of Gani Lawal, and even more impressed with his strength watching him manhandle Carolina's vaunted interior. It will be a blast watching him and Clemson's Booker bang all game. This is another game I wouldn't dare touch in Vegas, but I would wager you are watching two of the three best teams in the ACC face off tonight.
Ok, now for same games I will put my name on:
George Mason, like Creighton and Utah, had miserable pre-conference seasons but still seem capable of spoiling some things once conference play starts. Hofstra is a tough place to win, and they have been solid in CAA play, but I like the Patriots and the four and a half tonight.
Evan Turner is my National Player of the Year (still), and many readers will be surprised to see where Ohio State lands in tomorrow's Bracketeering. That said, laying 12 is a lot to a good Northwestern team, fresh off their win over Purdue. Ohio State wins, but I'll take NW and the 12.
Oklahoma is 2-1 in conference play, and from a distance seems to have steadied the once-promising ship. From a distance. This team takes terrible shots and looks like a playground team at times. The win over Mizzou is a good one, but I'll still lay the seven and take Texas A&M at home.
Surely Purdue can't lose another game in a row, right? That logic burnt me this weekend at Northwestern, but I'm sticking to my guns tonight when they travel to Champaigne. I still think the Illini are a bit overrated and a bubble team by the time the season winds down. If Purdue drops THIS one, it is time to push the panic button in West Lafayette.
In my final pick, let me start by saying Northern Iowa is really good. In my estimation, they are a tourney lock, and though we've had them higher than the polls all year (who finally ranked the Panthers), deserve their spot in Bracketeering. However, there is nothing tougher than knocking off a familiar, talented conference rival in their barn. The Panthers are going to try to do just that tonight at Wichita State. I like the Shockers laying two, in a good win not only for them, but also for the MVC's hopes of earning more than one bid.
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Northwestern +12
Wichita St. -2
Texas A&M -7
George Mason +4.5
Purdue -4Want More? Have something to Say?
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Hold!! Steady!! Northwestern is almost through the woods...
Northwestern plays their third game in their seven game guantlet that was supposed to vanquish their season and their NCAA aspirations. Take a look at this seven game stretch:
The first three have passed with a 2-1 record: a win @ Michigan, loss to Wisconsin, and a huge winover Purdue. I said before the season if they weathered the storm at 3-4 they'd dance. Here's the final four, starting with tonight's gem at Ohio State.
| Tue, Jan 19 | at (21) Ohio St. | 7:00 pm | ||||
| Sat, Jan 23 | Illinois | 8:00 pm | ||||
| Tue, Jan 26 | at Minnesota | 9:00 pm | ||||
| Sat, Jan 30 | at (6) Michigan St. |
.Any win out of these four will certainly have to be earned, but after beating Purdue on Saturday, it doesn't seem unreasonable that they beat the Illini at home, or even steal one at Minnesota.
Let's just assume they get their one win during the aforementioned stretch. That would bring the Wildcats to 14-7, (3-6). Certainly some work to do to make the tourney, but let's look a little deeper into the schedule. They would own quality wins over Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame, Iowa State and NC State, plus whichever of the four above grants them their win.
Their remaining schedule, ten games, features only one ranked opponent (at Wisconsin, a likely loss). The other nine comprise of home and homes with Indiana, Penn State and Iowa; the leagues three worst teams, and no other road games, only visits from Michigan, Minnesota, and Chicago State.
Do you see any reason they don't finish 8-2, 7-3 at worst? That would get Northwestern to 22-9 or 21-10, with the schedule they played and the relative strength of the Big Ten, it would certainly be enough to earn them a bid this season.
My point is this; there is a good chance Northwestern is going to hit the skids over the next two weeks, and most "pundits" will write them off. Don't. College Hoops, like most sports, is all about schedule. As long as the Wildcats can keep a few losses in perspective (and something tells me those kids and coaches probably can), the road ahead is clear and bright for the school's first EVER NCAA tourney appearance.
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Two Favorites for the Road
As of this morning, the Maniac sits a pleasant ten games over .500 ATS on the season picks. Here's two quickies. Syracuse heads to Notre Dame where the Irish have been tough. So tough they've lost to Loyola Marymount and Northwestern. I think Syracuse zones 'em up, and forces someone other than Harangody to beat them... and I'm not sure who can fit that bill. I like the 'Cuse laying the 3.
In the late game on ESPN, Texas gets yet another huge test when they travel to Manhattan to face the Wildcats. K-State has been good this year, and has a really solid ballclub. However, there is just something about Damion James, Avery Bradley and this year's Longhorn squad that ramps it up a notch for the big games. I like the Horns depth to wear them out down the stretch and grab another big win. Don't be surprised though if the Wildcats lead early and most of the second half.
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Syracuse - 3
Texas -1.5
Mirror, Mirror - Five Teams Deserving a Closer Look
We are almost reaching the point where it becomes possible to get a decent read on most teams across the country. While obviously things can and will change dramatically over the course of February and March, certain things are becoming evident. For example, North Carolina has some pretty substantial backcourt woes (yet remain ranked this week in the AP - seriously, someone give me a ballot...). The PAC-10 is on a collision course for a maximum of two bids. The Atlantic 10, if it's top four can hold off middle-of-the-packers GW, Charlotte and Richmond, will likely double the Pac-10's bid total and snag four. The MVC and CAA are going to cannibalize each other, so might the Big 12 and Big 10 to some extent. Pitt is legit, Nova and the 'Cuse are in the same top-spot mix, and four through eleven the BEast is going to be delightfully scrappy. These things seem pretty self-evident.
So what about some of the larger, and drastically under-reported question marks? We know that's why you read us here at MarchManiacs.com (and a big thank you, b.t.w.), so let me oblige you with five teams worth watching over the next two weeks, to see if we can answer some of the big questions.
1. Virginia - If you claim to have had the Cavs as the ACC's only unbeaten squad three weeks into conference play, you are lying. The coaches had them twelfth. As in dead last. Yet, at 3-0 the Cavaliers sit at the top of the heap and that should at least merit them entre' into the Big Dance discussion. SO, are the Cavs legit?
Season Highs & Lows: This is a team that was blown out by South Florida, and lost to Stanford, Penn State and Auburn before Christmas. Since then, they have beaten UAB, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Miami; all by no less than eight points.
Litmus Test: Over the next two weeks the Cavs travel to Wake and Carolina and host in-state rival Virginia Tech. There are no gimmes in the ACC (particularly with the Cavs having taken themselves off the list). Win 2 of 3, and it is time to talk tourney. Drop all three? Expect the Cavs to drop back towards the bottom of the standings and miss post-season play.
Maniac's Take: I'm still not sold on Virginia, though the margin of their three conference wins have to open eyes. They are playing noticeably tougher, intense man-to-man defense and are not going to be anyone's "easy" win from here on out. That said, I'm not ready to put them in the tourney quite yet, but also not ready to dismiss them. The upcoming two week stretch is going to be an interesting one, particularly if they can just go 1-2. That's enough for them to remain in play. Another bonus for the Cavs is they play Duke only once this season and the game is in Charlottesville.
2. Pitt - Is there any doubt Jamie Dixon is at the top of the National Coach of the Year ballot at this point of the season? Sitting at 5-0 with the three best road wins of any team in the country, what Pitt has accomplished after losing their three stars and team anchors is impressive. However, if you glance back to this same week in 2009, nearly everyone in the country was glamming Wake Forest and Dino Gaudio...Season Highs & Lows: The Texas loss early is nothing to be ashamed of, though they looked pretty uncompetitive and the loss to Indiana in MSG won't help come seeding time. The double-OT win over Duquesne saved the Panthers a second "bad loss." Since the calendar flipped to 2010, they have gone on the road to beat Syracuse, Cincinnati and Connecticut, as well as beating Louisville (in OT) at home.
Litmus Test: The BEast, because of the tremendous depth of good teams is often viewed as the nation's most competitive conference. While they may have more "good teams" than anyone else, they also have a good fistful of fluff. Because of the unbalanced slate a sixteen team league creates, schedule becomes important. The Panthers host G'Town Wednesday night. Win that, and they could legitimately be 9-0 in conference before facing their February gauntlet.
Starting Feb 12th, the Panthers face: West Virginia, @Marquette, Villanova, @Notre Dame. To me, that will be the real stretch that shows how deep of a threat this team is in March. It is hard to say the Panthers won't benefit from their conference schedule, they get WVU twice, but other double-ups are St. John's and Seton Hall.
Maniac's Outlook: It is getting hard to ignore these Panthers, but I can't help feel a bit about them like I felt about Marquette last season. Great wins, great record, but I just don't think they are a legit Final Four contender. That isn't to dismiss what they are doing this year, they are a tourney lock, and few had them even bubbling in 2010. However, regardless of my gut instinct, with the road wins they already have and the lack of more than a few tough road games remaining it is hard to envision Pitt not earning a Top 4 seed in March.
3. Vanderbilt - It seems like everyone forgot about the Commodores after their early season losses. However, the 'Dores are off to a 3-0 conference start, and while everyone is focusing on Kentucky and Tennessee (and earlier on Florida), Vandy appears to be a real threat in the SEC East.
Season Highs & Lows: The early loss to Cincy isn't a bad one, nor is the loss to Illinois. The loss to Western Kentucky won't help the profile, but likely doesn't assassinate it, assuming the Toppers remain in the RPI Top 100. Their quality wins over St. Mary's and Missouri help (and maybe Arizona?), and their conference start is impressive, beating Florida, and also Bama and South Carolina on the road.
Litmus Test: The 'Dores better stasy focused on Auburn at home this weekend, because next week features trips to Knoxville and Lexington. We will know a lot more about Vandy in two weeks.
Maniac's Outlook: I like this team. I think they make the NCAA tourney and I think the SEC gets five, possibly six bids this March. They would likely be the fifth or sixth, so early wins over Florida and South Carolina were HUGE. I'm not sure they will win either road contest coming up, but stealing one of the two (particularly Kentucky, who they always play tough) should get them on pretty safe ground for March.
4. Marshall - Perhaps no two-loss team in the country is more unknown than the Thundering Herd of Marshall. As of today, they are the only team in Division I with two or less losses not to receive more than single vote in the AP poll (LA Tech had seven, Rhode Island eleven). Little was expected of them in the improved Conference USA, and perhaps little is known about them either as they have yet to tackle any of the league's big boys. Of course that is going to change quickly, as you'll see in their "litmus test" below.Season Highs & Lows: Their loss to Old Dominion is no crime, neither is losing to UNC. But losing to Carolina by 37 probably doesn't help the perception that you are glaringly unready for prime time. Their best wins are @ UCF, Ohio and Lamar. So, um, yeah....
Litmus Test: Are the Herd any good? No one really knows yet, but we will. Oh yeah, we really will. How's this for a five game stretch: @West Virginia, UAB, Memphis, @Houston, @Tulsa. I'm not sure they win ANY of those five games, and if they do drop them all, I promise you will hear no more of the Thundering Herd on MM.com. However, win one and it is interesting to see where they land come conference tourney time. Win two? Win three?
Maniac's Outlook: Their seven-foot freshman Hassad Whiteside has potential that will bring the pro scouts to Huntington over and over again for the next few years. However, they are not quite ready to make the leap into top-tier C-USA consideration. Perhaps in years past this could be a third or fourth place team, but the improved depth of the conference makes it hard to see this team winning enough game to even snag an NIT bid.
5. Rhode Island - Speaking of two-loss teams that are nearly invisible in the polls, how about those Rams? The narrow home-loss to Temple hurt their national respect chances, but I think people are sleeping on a pretty good ballclub.
Season Highs & Lows: The Rams would love to have that two-point loss to VCU tilted the other way, as well as their only other blemish, their four point loss to Temple last week. Rhode Island does boast wins over Oklahoma State and Boston College. Other than that, the slate is pretty barren.
Litmus Test: Ask and ye shall receive. The Rams get to find out (and show all of us) what they are made of next week with back-to-back trips to Xavier and Dayton. Split those two and we can start talking NCAA bid. Drop them both? It gets dicey. Win both and they would absolutely deserve to move in to the Top25, if not the Top 20.
Maniac's Outlook: I championed the Rams last year, only to be embarrassed by their late season tailspin. However, I still think this team is in the field of 65 come March. I have a feeling they lose both at Xavier and at Dayton, but except for a trip to Temple and a tricky visit from Richmond, they could win out their remaining ten games from there. That would get the Rams to 25-5, 24-6 and likely a 10 or 11 seed in the Dance.
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