Two mid major darlings took major shots across the bow last night, dropping conference games to sub-.500 opponents by double digits.
For Siena, the loss came at traditional rival Niagara. It drops the Saints to 13-1 in league and doesn't necessarily eliminate them from at large consideration should they need it. It does however put a little more stress on the Bracket Buster game with Butler.
In the Ivy, things got real interesting with Cornell's stunning loss to 4-19 Penn. Many had their upcoming game with Princeton circled as one of intrigue. Now they might want to circle it, star it, highlight it - it's even bigger now. Consider this, if Princeton clips the Red they would open a two game conference lead and own the tie breaker. With no conference tourney, Princeton would likely earn the league's auto bid. Would Cornell, whose RPI would likely climb well above 100 with two conference losses really merit an at-large bid? It will be a debateable case to say the least and an intereting barometer of the true impact of RPI rankings.
Of course, beat Princeton and win out and it is all moot. In my opinion, it's the only way the Red are dancing this March.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Big East Bubble Talk
Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.
Pitt (18-6, 7-4): It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list. They are not on the bubble. But they could be soon.
I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet. Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana. So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates. Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame. It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games. IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble. The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers. I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%
Louisville (15-9, 6-5): Can you say BRUTAL? That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's. They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home). Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).
Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn. The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall. The bad news? What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games? Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%
Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6): Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.
On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%
Marquette (15-8, 6-5): I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board. They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category. That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance. I think they have a good shot. They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely. I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%
South Florida (15-8, 5-6): Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn?? It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot. Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four. They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn. They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul. Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference. They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%
In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list. No joke.
Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6): What happened here? The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.
Now? It looks really, really bad. The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. Ouch. That looks like three losses to me. That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall. Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.
It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%
Connecticut (14-10, 4-7): Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night. Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating. They look at W's and L's. And the Huskies have a lot of L's. Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.
As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot. Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play. But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.
Here's the final seven: Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%
The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks. I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end. Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses). Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame. Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)
Pitt (18-6, 7-4): It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list. They are not on the bubble. But they could be soon.
I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet. Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana. So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates. Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame. It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games. IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble. The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers. I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%
Louisville (15-9, 6-5): Can you say BRUTAL? That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's. They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home). Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).
Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn. The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall. The bad news? What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games? Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%
Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6): Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.
On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%
Marquette (15-8, 6-5): I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board. They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category. That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance. I think they have a good shot. They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely. I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%
South Florida (15-8, 5-6): Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn?? It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot. Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four. They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn. They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul. Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference. They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%
In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list. No joke.
Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6): What happened here? The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.
Now? It looks really, really bad. The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. Ouch. That looks like three losses to me. That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall. Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.
It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%
Connecticut (14-10, 4-7): Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night. Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating. They look at W's and L's. And the Huskies have a lot of L's. Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.
As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot. Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play. But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.
Here's the final seven: Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%
The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks. I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end. Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses). Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame. Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)
Someone's MISSing the Tourney
Not only is it an underrated and fierce rivalry, tonight in Starkville we might be watching a virtual elimination game when Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State. With the middling play in the SEC West (and odd emergence of Arkansas) it is looking more and more likely that only one team from that half of the conference is going to the Big Dance.
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Ole Miss +5
Cal -5
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Orange Crush
One down, two more on deck.
Syracuse is on a bubble-busting tour through the Big East middlings that continues tonight when the struggling UConn Huskies come to town. Rivalry week? I suppose, but this ain't your six-OT Huskies and Cuse squads of last year.
UConn finds themselves in a situation very similar to Cincinnati last weekend and nearly identical to the one Louisville hosts this weekend. On the outside looking in, looking for a marquee win to vault them up and in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse crushed Cincinnati's upset bid early and thoroughly. They get two more chances to crush another team on The Boeheim (our old term for "bubble" named in honor of the often apopleptic NIT invitee) tonight.
Maniac's Pick: UConn +11.5
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Syracuse is on a bubble-busting tour through the Big East middlings that continues tonight when the struggling UConn Huskies come to town. Rivalry week? I suppose, but this ain't your six-OT Huskies and Cuse squads of last year.
UConn finds themselves in a situation very similar to Cincinnati last weekend and nearly identical to the one Louisville hosts this weekend. On the outside looking in, looking for a marquee win to vault them up and in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse crushed Cincinnati's upset bid early and thoroughly. They get two more chances to crush another team on The Boeheim (our old term for "bubble" named in honor of the often apopleptic NIT invitee) tonight.
Maniac's Pick: UConn +11.5
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
If the RPI Doesn't Lie...
then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
RPI's that Hurt:
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Introducing Demitri McCamey
First things first, what a GREAT win for the Illini tonight at Wisconsin. No one wins at Wisconsin. The win puts them in a big log jam tie for first if Purdue can clip Sparty tonight. Either way it absolutely punches Illinois' ticket to the Dance. It gives them nine wins in league and makes it a virtual certainty they finish well over .500 in league play. Add in the wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt and they are sitting pretty.
Now let's talk Big Ten POY. Everyone knows Evan Turner. Most people know Kalin Lucas and Robbie Hummel. Let me introduce you to a new entrant to the mix; Demetri McCamey.
He is averaging 15.5 points, over 6 assists and 3.5 boards a night. More importantly, he is absolutely shouldering the load for the Illini on their surprising run at the Big Ten title. Tonight he simply willed Illinois past Wisconsin in a building they have already slain giants like Duke, Michigan State and Purdue. In the 63-56 win McCamey had 27 points on 11 of 16 shooting. More impressivly he had seven of the team's eight assists. That means he accounted for 43 of his team's 63 points, or more than 70%. He WAS Illinois tonight.
Correction, he WAS first place Illinois tonight..
Now let's talk Big Ten POY. Everyone knows Evan Turner. Most people know Kalin Lucas and Robbie Hummel. Let me introduce you to a new entrant to the mix; Demetri McCamey.He is averaging 15.5 points, over 6 assists and 3.5 boards a night. More importantly, he is absolutely shouldering the load for the Illini on their surprising run at the Big Ten title. Tonight he simply willed Illinois past Wisconsin in a building they have already slain giants like Duke, Michigan State and Purdue. In the 63-56 win McCamey had 27 points on 11 of 16 shooting. More impressivly he had seven of the team's eight assists. That means he accounted for 43 of his team's 63 points, or more than 70%. He WAS Illinois tonight.
Correction, he WAS first place Illinois tonight..
Quick Picks - Feb 9th
It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.
In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge. A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March. Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth. Gimme the 'Dores -3.
It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win. I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech. Give me the Red Raiders and the points.
Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center." I think I have finally learned my lesson. Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship. Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.
In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not. Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team. Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible. Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center. Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Vandy -3Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5
Coach of the Year...Sort of
Let's be honest. Coach of the Year is rarely granted to a coach of a transcendantly great team. In fact, with the constant greatness of programs like Syracuse, UConn, Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, you can bet it's a long shot most years for Coach K, Roy, Izzo, Boeheim, Mark Few (who really deserves some votes this year) or Calhoun to take home the hardware anymore. That honor this year will much more likely be bestowed on the likes of a Tony Bennett, Bruce Pearl, or Jamie Dixon (again). In short, it goes to the coach whose team most dramatically exceeds expectations.
So let me give you my nomination for Coach of the Year, with a twist. More specifically Worst Coach of the Year. Hands down, it's lovable, affable Roy Williams. It hurts to write. It's hard to say, which is why very few media outlets will say it, but it is undeniably true. It's been an abysmally poor coaching job this year in Chapel Hill.
You can make the argument that Carolina lost more in terms of talent than any team in the country heading into this year. I'd agree with you. You can also argue that Carolina was drastically overrated to begin the season and they just weren't as talented as advertised.
I'll give you that one too. Sort of.
Let me give you a recap of Carolina's early exploits. They hammered Cal, then lost to Syracuse. The beat Nevada and Michigan State. The lost by just two at Rupp Arena and were competitive in a road loss to Texas. They opened conference play with a comfortable double-digit win over Virginia Tech.
This hardly seems like the resume of a team about to be overwhelmed by admittedly mediocre 2010 ACC competition. In fact, their first few losses were very competitive as well. They got clipped by a bucket by Georgia Tech at home. Then the wheels completely came off. In their most recent games they have not just been beaten, they have been uncompetitive. They have been embarrassed. The Heels got blasted in their own gym by Wake Forest. They followed it up by getting blasted again in the Dean Dome, this time by UVA. Most recently they lost to Maryland by 22 on a less-than-Super Sunday effort.
Coaching accolades are given to teams who show steady progression; growth; an ability to come together and rise above adversity.
So what do you get when your team packs it in and does the exact opposite?
You still want to argue that Carolina's Mickey D's All-American parade is slightly overrated talent? Fine. I'll concede reluctantly. If you want to argue that Wake Forest, Clemson, Maryland and VIRGINIA are MORE talented? Come on now.
At 13-10, the NCAA Tournament is realistically long gone. At 2-5 in ACC play with Duke looming tomorrow night it is not unrealistic to think they could miss post-season play all together. Things are truly that dire in Chapel Hill. And don't just take my word for it. Tune in to any Roy Williams post-game conference and he'll tell you ad nausem. It has eclipsed "light a fire pep talk" and drifted into "beats the hell out of me, these guys stink" territory.
When you watch Carolina play of late you see a team with an immense amount of talent that looks lost, searching for direction, completely devoid of leadership. Ideally you'd love to have a floor leader like Sherron Collins or John Wall. Most teams don't, and when you don't, then you look to the bench. You look to Roy. Instead of looking for fans to eject and explanations you hope for some solutions and resolve. This season? It seems he is hoping for the exact same thing.
.
So let me give you my nomination for Coach of the Year, with a twist. More specifically Worst Coach of the Year. Hands down, it's lovable, affable Roy Williams. It hurts to write. It's hard to say, which is why very few media outlets will say it, but it is undeniably true. It's been an abysmally poor coaching job this year in Chapel Hill.
You can make the argument that Carolina lost more in terms of talent than any team in the country heading into this year. I'd agree with you. You can also argue that Carolina was drastically overrated to begin the season and they just weren't as talented as advertised.
Let me give you a recap of Carolina's early exploits. They hammered Cal, then lost to Syracuse. The beat Nevada and Michigan State. The lost by just two at Rupp Arena and were competitive in a road loss to Texas. They opened conference play with a comfortable double-digit win over Virginia Tech.
This hardly seems like the resume of a team about to be overwhelmed by admittedly mediocre 2010 ACC competition. In fact, their first few losses were very competitive as well. They got clipped by a bucket by Georgia Tech at home. Then the wheels completely came off. In their most recent games they have not just been beaten, they have been uncompetitive. They have been embarrassed. The Heels got blasted in their own gym by Wake Forest. They followed it up by getting blasted again in the Dean Dome, this time by UVA. Most recently they lost to Maryland by 22 on a less-than-Super Sunday effort.
Coaching accolades are given to teams who show steady progression; growth; an ability to come together and rise above adversity.
So what do you get when your team packs it in and does the exact opposite?
You still want to argue that Carolina's Mickey D's All-American parade is slightly overrated talent? Fine. I'll concede reluctantly. If you want to argue that Wake Forest, Clemson, Maryland and VIRGINIA are MORE talented? Come on now.
At 13-10, the NCAA Tournament is realistically long gone. At 2-5 in ACC play with Duke looming tomorrow night it is not unrealistic to think they could miss post-season play all together. Things are truly that dire in Chapel Hill. And don't just take my word for it. Tune in to any Roy Williams post-game conference and he'll tell you ad nausem. It has eclipsed "light a fire pep talk" and drifted into "beats the hell out of me, these guys stink" territory.
When you watch Carolina play of late you see a team with an immense amount of talent that looks lost, searching for direction, completely devoid of leadership. Ideally you'd love to have a floor leader like Sherron Collins or John Wall. Most teams don't, and when you don't, then you look to the bench. You look to Roy. Instead of looking for fans to eject and explanations you hope for some solutions and resolve. This season? It seems he is hoping for the exact same thing.
.
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Colonial's Quest for Multiple Bids
There are some real gems this week outside of the traditional "rivalries" or Rivalry Week. (ya' know, even more classic matchups that that ol' Villanova v. West Virginia grudge match...).
All year long we have projected multiple bids for the delightfully entertaining and underrated Colonial League. Tonight's ESPN-U tilt between VCU and George Mason will have some impact on that possibility. Mason has been great in conference play (until their recent 2-game slide), and has some name recognition hangover from their epic 2006 tourney run. VCU is in fourth place in the league, and this is a problem. Aside from VCU (and William & Mary, whose in-league play eliminate them from the discussion) only Old Dominion has the non-conference resume to merit at-large consideration. But with Northeastern, Drexel and Mason lurking towards the top of the standings, it gets tougher to make the case for the VCU Rams.
Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for VCU's at-large chances. In some quiet, near-silent corner I imagine CAA brass are rooting for the Rams as well tonight. it's the league's best chance for two at-large contenders.
Want to know who is definitely NOT rooting for the Rams? Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, et. all. This game has far reaching bubble implications.
If you want a high-level, well-played game to tune into tonight before Purdue v. Michigan State, flip over to ESPN-U and enjoy.
Maniac's Pick: George Mason + 4
All year long we have projected multiple bids for the delightfully entertaining and underrated Colonial League. Tonight's ESPN-U tilt between VCU and George Mason will have some impact on that possibility. Mason has been great in conference play (until their recent 2-game slide), and has some name recognition hangover from their epic 2006 tourney run. VCU is in fourth place in the league, and this is a problem. Aside from VCU (and William & Mary, whose in-league play eliminate them from the discussion) only Old Dominion has the non-conference resume to merit at-large consideration. But with Northeastern, Drexel and Mason lurking towards the top of the standings, it gets tougher to make the case for the VCU Rams.
Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for VCU's at-large chances. In some quiet, near-silent corner I imagine CAA brass are rooting for the Rams as well tonight. it's the league's best chance for two at-large contenders.
Want to know who is definitely NOT rooting for the Rams? Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, et. all. This game has far reaching bubble implications.
If you want a high-level, well-played game to tune into tonight before Purdue v. Michigan State, flip over to ESPN-U and enjoy.
Maniac's Pick: George Mason + 4
Bracketeering - Feb 7th 2010 - The Field of 65 Forecast Edition
To call this weekend in college hoops a tumultuous one would be a slight understatement. A dozen ranked teams lost this weekend, many of them to unranked foes. Teams we thought could contend for number one seeds showed some vulnerability; Villanova gave up 103 points in their loss to Georgetown, Michigan State lost Kalin Lucas to Wisconsin, and followed it up by losing to Illinois, and Texas continues their absolute free-fall, getting blasted by seriously flawed Oklahoma.
It leaves quite a mess for this week's Bracketeering, and rather than the brackets (which I was told were tough to read), we will spell this one out by seed line, with logic loops to follow each line.
Enjoy The Maniac's look into the crystal ball of March - and feel free to make your case for any omissions.
#1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue
Syracuse has been #1 on our big board for weeks, and see no reason to slide them until someone beats them. Kansas has the easier road to the finish, having already won at Kansas State and getting a wounded Texas tomorrow night, but Syracuse did more out of league and plays a slightly higher-rated schedule in the Big East (though the Big 12 probably is deeper percentage of quality team-wise). Kentucky seems pretty solid as a number one.
The fourth #1 was a tough one. It could be one of the three Big East giants waiting in the wings, but I have a feeling they are going to slug it out a bit and beat each other out of the top slot. I went with Purdue. Aside from last month's three game slide, they have been flawless. They seem to have found a rotation and are getting some bench punch from John Hart and Kelsey Barlow. Kalin Lucas's ankle injury opens the door for Purdue to take the Big Ten and earn a #1 seed in the process.
#2 Seeds: Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Michigan State
Duke can still earn a #1 if they can distance the rest of the ACC pack and win the conference tourney. I think they'll take at least one more loss and ease in as a comfy #2. WVU and 'Nova can both easily slide up as well. They have the non-conference scalps that paired with winning the Big East crown would make them automatic one seeds. Michigan State is an interesting case. They will likely lose their Big Ten lead is Lucas is out several weeks as anticipated. However, they were 9-0 (really 9-1, Wisconsin had them beat either way) until he was hurt. The committee will grad them accordingly and look at the overall body of work. I think the Spartans stay as the final #2.
#3 Seeds: Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas
Both Kansas State and Georgetown could easily have been twos. The Hoyas are an interesting case; they hammered Duke and Villanova, yet in between lost a home game to South Florida. It is that inconsistency that will keep them off the top two seed lines, but will also make them the 3 seed your whole pool LOVES. Ohio State is sneaky. They could stay hot and win the Big Ten. If they do, their loss total (even with Evan Turner sidelined for three of them) keeps them off the top line. The best they can do is a #2, I think they land as a really dangerous three seed.
Finally there is Texas. They went from one seed to, if the tourney started today, four or five seed in the bat of an eye. I think they'll stop their free fall (and like them to sack up and nap KU tomorrow night) and round out the most dangerous three line in recent tourney memory. Honestly, is there any reason any of these four couldn't just as reasonably cut the nets down as the eight teams seeded above them??
#4 Seeds: Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Butler
Gonzaga's loss to San Fran keeps them off the three line, their awesome strength of schedule and strong RPI keeps them at the four if they can avoid any other sleepwalkers. If the tourney was held in the Kohl Center, I'd make the Badgers the favorite. It isn't, so for now, they'll be the four seed that creates matchup nightmares for coaches.
I like Vandy's remaining schedule and the road wins in league to keep them ahead of Tennessee, Florida and Ole Miss on the big board. Lastly, people forgot about Butler but it appears they aren't going to lose again this season as they are 13-0 in the Horizon and already tackled some of their "toughest" foes. The Bulldogs were competitive in every game they played in their daunting pre-conference slate and will be a tough out if they get to the Sweet 16. Their discipline and interior size could be a tough draw for a team like Kentucky.
#5 Seeds: New Mexico, Pitt, Temple, Maryland
The Terps seem to be for real, and Grevies Vasquez is moving up my national POY list. They are 6-2 in the balanced and tough ACC and appear poised to settle into the second slot in league play. Pitt and Temple both raced out to great starts in league play, but have taken a few losses lately. New Mexico's pounding of BYU, and stronger RPI moves them ahead of the Cougs on the Maniac's board.
#6 Seeds: Tennessee, No. Iowa, Baylor, Georgia Tech
Tennessee has come back to Earth a little bit, but that win over Kansas is a huge chip when it comes seeding time. I might have Baylor and No. Iowa a little high, but I really like both teams to finish strong. Ditto for Georgia Tech, who IF they can ever put it all together has Sweet 16-level talent.
#7 Seeds: Cal, BYU, Rhode Island, Texas A&M
Speaking of "if they ever put it together", how about Cal? They still have one of the better backcourts in the country, and have shown flashes of quality but have yet to pull away from the throng of mediocrity in the Pac 10. I'll try one more time to restore some faith in the Bears and have them temporarilty over-seeded as a #7. BYU's weak non-conference doesn't allow for many losses like the one they took this weekend in conference play. Rhode Island has the strongest RPI of the pack of teams lumped between two and six in the A-10. Their frenetic style will be an eye-opener for some unsuspecting 2-seed in the tourney.
#8 Seeds: UTEP, UNLV, Xavier, Ole Miss
UTEP is coming on strong and is my pick to win C-USA. The win over Tulsa really moves them up. Likewise for UNLV's win over San Diego State. Xavier has great quality close losses and a fantasic RPI, though the 90-65 beatdown they took Saturday in Dayton has to at least slide them back to bubble-aware footing. Lastly, I like Ole Miss to finally play to their potential and win the muddled SEC West. Their home game against Mississippi State could decide who goes to the tourney.
#9 Seeds: Richmond, Cornell, St Mary's, Missouri
Richmond has by far the most impressive non-conference win tallies of the A-10 bunch, hence they get the nod here over Dayton and Charlotte. It is going to be a fight to the finish in that league. A lot of people are projecting six bids, but I'm a realist - only four; maybe five are getting in. While chaos abounds, Cornell fans have to be smiling. Long gone is their chances for big wins, however they steadily creep up the board as seemingly everyone around them falters. Their "almost win" at Kansas could wind up being the most valuable loss in terms of seeding.
#10 Seeds: Louisville, UAB, Clemson, Dayton
I'm picking Lousiville to emerge from the six through twelve clump in the Big East battling for two or three slots. The Cards have done less out of league than teams like UConn, South Florida and Seton Hall, but I think they are also more talented than those three and will finish with ten or eleven conference wins. In the BEast, that punches your dance card.
I'm not sure what to make of Clemson. If the tourney were today, they are out, behind the likes of Virginia Tech, Florida State and possibly even UVA. However, I like the Tigers down the stretch to edge ahead and make the field. Same for Dayton. That Xavier win was a huge one. If they can avoid any "bad losses" I think the Flyers will get in. I also like UAB. They have some great wins out of league and are 8-2 in the underrated C-USA. That said, if they slip up Memphis or Tulsa could snatch that spot from them
#11 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Florida, Old Dominion
Quick caveat - from here on in, every team is on a thin margin for error. A few upsets in leagues like the Horizon and WCC could screw things up. Siena could creep in (possibly even a 27-3 Murray State if they lose their league tourney) so no one on this list is safe.
That said, I like Oklahoma State despite their three game slide. The would have the best player in the tourney wear road jerseys on the openeing day if they get in. James Anderson is legit. I'm giving VA Tech the slot here over Florida State and Virginia. Just a gut feeling they'll earn it.
It kills me to put Florida in. I really don't think they are any good and that NC State win is such a fluke it bugs me to put that in their "good win" column. However, at 17-6 in the SEC, it seems likely they finish over .500 in league, get 20 wins and can boast wins over Florida State and Michigan State out of league. That'll get them in.
Yes, I have Northwestern IN at 5-6 in league play and Illinois OUT at 8-3. Just watch the next two weeks unfold - then email me your apology.
#12 Seeds: Siena, Wichita State, Arinzona State, Marquette
The same logic that gets Northwestern in is how I have Marquette here. I think they are better than Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall. I'm not sure they are better than South Florida, but do have an easier closing schedule. Wichita State deserve to be in, and so does Old Dominion. We shall see if the committee rewards the mid-major or greedily grabs from the pool of BCS-mediocrity.
Arizona State is here are the Pac-10 Tourney representative. No sense projecting Cal, only to have a bid "stolen" later. Given the parity it is quite likely one of the eight teams (Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Washington State) other than Cal wins the tourney. SO - this is their slot. "Other Eight" is intentional, yes I can count. Yes, screw USC.
#13 Seeds: Murray State, Northeastern, Utah State, Coastal Carolina
Northeastern could just as easily be replaced by VCU, William & Mary, or George Mason if one of them wins the CAA. Regardless I think this league gets a team in addition to Old Dominion (even if ODU wins the conference tourney) This slot is for team #2. Utah State moves in this week over LA Tech in the WAC
#14 Seeds: Lafayette, Charleston, IUPUI, Northern Colorado
#15 Seeds: Pacific, Denver, Akron, Morgan State
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, Vermont, Belmont, Texas A&M CC, Texas So.
It leaves quite a mess for this week's Bracketeering, and rather than the brackets (which I was told were tough to read), we will spell this one out by seed line, with logic loops to follow each line.
Enjoy The Maniac's look into the crystal ball of March - and feel free to make your case for any omissions.
#1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue
Syracuse has been #1 on our big board for weeks, and see no reason to slide them until someone beats them. Kansas has the easier road to the finish, having already won at Kansas State and getting a wounded Texas tomorrow night, but Syracuse did more out of league and plays a slightly higher-rated schedule in the Big East (though the Big 12 probably is deeper percentage of quality team-wise). Kentucky seems pretty solid as a number one.
The fourth #1 was a tough one. It could be one of the three Big East giants waiting in the wings, but I have a feeling they are going to slug it out a bit and beat each other out of the top slot. I went with Purdue. Aside from last month's three game slide, they have been flawless. They seem to have found a rotation and are getting some bench punch from John Hart and Kelsey Barlow. Kalin Lucas's ankle injury opens the door for Purdue to take the Big Ten and earn a #1 seed in the process.
#2 Seeds: Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Michigan State
Duke can still earn a #1 if they can distance the rest of the ACC pack and win the conference tourney. I think they'll take at least one more loss and ease in as a comfy #2. WVU and 'Nova can both easily slide up as well. They have the non-conference scalps that paired with winning the Big East crown would make them automatic one seeds. Michigan State is an interesting case. They will likely lose their Big Ten lead is Lucas is out several weeks as anticipated. However, they were 9-0 (really 9-1, Wisconsin had them beat either way) until he was hurt. The committee will grad them accordingly and look at the overall body of work. I think the Spartans stay as the final #2.
#3 Seeds: Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas
Both Kansas State and Georgetown could easily have been twos. The Hoyas are an interesting case; they hammered Duke and Villanova, yet in between lost a home game to South Florida. It is that inconsistency that will keep them off the top two seed lines, but will also make them the 3 seed your whole pool LOVES. Ohio State is sneaky. They could stay hot and win the Big Ten. If they do, their loss total (even with Evan Turner sidelined for three of them) keeps them off the top line. The best they can do is a #2, I think they land as a really dangerous three seed.
Finally there is Texas. They went from one seed to, if the tourney started today, four or five seed in the bat of an eye. I think they'll stop their free fall (and like them to sack up and nap KU tomorrow night) and round out the most dangerous three line in recent tourney memory. Honestly, is there any reason any of these four couldn't just as reasonably cut the nets down as the eight teams seeded above them??
#4 Seeds: Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Butler
Gonzaga's loss to San Fran keeps them off the three line, their awesome strength of schedule and strong RPI keeps them at the four if they can avoid any other sleepwalkers. If the tourney was held in the Kohl Center, I'd make the Badgers the favorite. It isn't, so for now, they'll be the four seed that creates matchup nightmares for coaches.
I like Vandy's remaining schedule and the road wins in league to keep them ahead of Tennessee, Florida and Ole Miss on the big board. Lastly, people forgot about Butler but it appears they aren't going to lose again this season as they are 13-0 in the Horizon and already tackled some of their "toughest" foes. The Bulldogs were competitive in every game they played in their daunting pre-conference slate and will be a tough out if they get to the Sweet 16. Their discipline and interior size could be a tough draw for a team like Kentucky.
#5 Seeds: New Mexico, Pitt, Temple, Maryland
The Terps seem to be for real, and Grevies Vasquez is moving up my national POY list. They are 6-2 in the balanced and tough ACC and appear poised to settle into the second slot in league play. Pitt and Temple both raced out to great starts in league play, but have taken a few losses lately. New Mexico's pounding of BYU, and stronger RPI moves them ahead of the Cougs on the Maniac's board.
#6 Seeds: Tennessee, No. Iowa, Baylor, Georgia Tech
Tennessee has come back to Earth a little bit, but that win over Kansas is a huge chip when it comes seeding time. I might have Baylor and No. Iowa a little high, but I really like both teams to finish strong. Ditto for Georgia Tech, who IF they can ever put it all together has Sweet 16-level talent.
#7 Seeds: Cal, BYU, Rhode Island, Texas A&M
Speaking of "if they ever put it together", how about Cal? They still have one of the better backcourts in the country, and have shown flashes of quality but have yet to pull away from the throng of mediocrity in the Pac 10. I'll try one more time to restore some faith in the Bears and have them temporarilty over-seeded as a #7. BYU's weak non-conference doesn't allow for many losses like the one they took this weekend in conference play. Rhode Island has the strongest RPI of the pack of teams lumped between two and six in the A-10. Their frenetic style will be an eye-opener for some unsuspecting 2-seed in the tourney.
#8 Seeds: UTEP, UNLV, Xavier, Ole Miss
UTEP is coming on strong and is my pick to win C-USA. The win over Tulsa really moves them up. Likewise for UNLV's win over San Diego State. Xavier has great quality close losses and a fantasic RPI, though the 90-65 beatdown they took Saturday in Dayton has to at least slide them back to bubble-aware footing. Lastly, I like Ole Miss to finally play to their potential and win the muddled SEC West. Their home game against Mississippi State could decide who goes to the tourney.
#9 Seeds: Richmond, Cornell, St Mary's, Missouri
Richmond has by far the most impressive non-conference win tallies of the A-10 bunch, hence they get the nod here over Dayton and Charlotte. It is going to be a fight to the finish in that league. A lot of people are projecting six bids, but I'm a realist - only four; maybe five are getting in. While chaos abounds, Cornell fans have to be smiling. Long gone is their chances for big wins, however they steadily creep up the board as seemingly everyone around them falters. Their "almost win" at Kansas could wind up being the most valuable loss in terms of seeding.
#10 Seeds: Louisville, UAB, Clemson, Dayton
I'm picking Lousiville to emerge from the six through twelve clump in the Big East battling for two or three slots. The Cards have done less out of league than teams like UConn, South Florida and Seton Hall, but I think they are also more talented than those three and will finish with ten or eleven conference wins. In the BEast, that punches your dance card.
I'm not sure what to make of Clemson. If the tourney were today, they are out, behind the likes of Virginia Tech, Florida State and possibly even UVA. However, I like the Tigers down the stretch to edge ahead and make the field. Same for Dayton. That Xavier win was a huge one. If they can avoid any "bad losses" I think the Flyers will get in. I also like UAB. They have some great wins out of league and are 8-2 in the underrated C-USA. That said, if they slip up Memphis or Tulsa could snatch that spot from them
#11 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Florida, Old Dominion
Quick caveat - from here on in, every team is on a thin margin for error. A few upsets in leagues like the Horizon and WCC could screw things up. Siena could creep in (possibly even a 27-3 Murray State if they lose their league tourney) so no one on this list is safe.
That said, I like Oklahoma State despite their three game slide. The would have the best player in the tourney wear road jerseys on the openeing day if they get in. James Anderson is legit. I'm giving VA Tech the slot here over Florida State and Virginia. Just a gut feeling they'll earn it.
It kills me to put Florida in. I really don't think they are any good and that NC State win is such a fluke it bugs me to put that in their "good win" column. However, at 17-6 in the SEC, it seems likely they finish over .500 in league, get 20 wins and can boast wins over Florida State and Michigan State out of league. That'll get them in.
Yes, I have Northwestern IN at 5-6 in league play and Illinois OUT at 8-3. Just watch the next two weeks unfold - then email me your apology.
#12 Seeds: Siena, Wichita State, Arinzona State, Marquette
The same logic that gets Northwestern in is how I have Marquette here. I think they are better than Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall. I'm not sure they are better than South Florida, but do have an easier closing schedule. Wichita State deserve to be in, and so does Old Dominion. We shall see if the committee rewards the mid-major or greedily grabs from the pool of BCS-mediocrity.
Arizona State is here are the Pac-10 Tourney representative. No sense projecting Cal, only to have a bid "stolen" later. Given the parity it is quite likely one of the eight teams (Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Washington State) other than Cal wins the tourney. SO - this is their slot. "Other Eight" is intentional, yes I can count. Yes, screw USC.
#13 Seeds: Murray State, Northeastern, Utah State, Coastal Carolina
Northeastern could just as easily be replaced by VCU, William & Mary, or George Mason if one of them wins the CAA. Regardless I think this league gets a team in addition to Old Dominion (even if ODU wins the conference tourney) This slot is for team #2. Utah State moves in this week over LA Tech in the WAC
#14 Seeds: Lafayette, Charleston, IUPUI, Northern Colorado
#15 Seeds: Pacific, Denver, Akron, Morgan State
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, Vermont, Belmont, Texas A&M CC, Texas So.
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