It is sad to write, but I think a proper eulogy needs to at least be prepared in advance. This March, it might be time to bury our good friend, the Mid-Major.
Cinderella will still have plenty of feet begging for slippers, as the nation's 31 conferences collect their automatic bids. However, they will likely have no company from any fellow conference mates, barring five large upsets in very specific conference tournaments. (the A-10, Horizon, Southern, C-USA and WCC).
For the past decade, momentum has been gathering for the rise of mid-majors, both in births in the tourney and in results. Many theories were bandied about; some seemed legitmatly reasonable. Some experts cited the decrease in scholarship allowances. This prevented teams from stockpiling dozens of blue-chippers on the bench while everyone else had to feed on the leftovers. In theory, this created a larger balanced landscape.
But apparently not this year.
Another theory was the influx of early entrants to the NBA draft. Smaller programs with good, but not one-and-done good players would develop junior and senior laden squads that could go deep in the tourney and wreck havoc.
You know, senior laden teams, like Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, Ohio State 2007...
Next theory.
The most popular theory was the proliferation of television coverage granting exposure to "non-major" programs. With the multitude of games being broadcast, you no longer
had to play at a "Top 20" program to be blasted across the nation's airwaves. This is, again, true in theory, but perhaps herein lies the true reason why thing have instead become so
unbalanced in 2009.
This weekend there were roughly 20 games broadcast nationally. Depending upon where you live, you might have had a different selection of games from your FOX Sports carrier, but likely it was Pac-10 or ACC. On ESPN everything is BIG. Like BIG Monday, SUPER Tuesday, etc. "Big" as in Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Big budget and Big BCS conferences.
There are a ton more games on TV overall, I agree. As a matter of fact, I am surprised when I cannot get a Big 6 conference game of any remote importance on regular cable. Nearly every game that means anything is on. If you wanted to catch Davidson v. Charleston last month? Might I suggest ESPN360. You don't get that? (you are in 90% majority) Bummer.
Outside the Big 6 conferences?? Well, unless your name is Gonzaga or Memphis (or the team offered up to them) your One Shining Moment in the sun will have to wait.
Not that I blame networks one bit. The dial is going to spike for UConn/LVille tonight. I don't think many of you would be DVRing George Mason versus Northeastern. (Maybe
you would,
you read my drivel, so are obviously a hoops nerd like me - so
"you" specifically...bad example. You get the point though...)
It is the same reason the Yankees are on 29 times a year, and the Brewers are invisible. It's just the way it is. That doesn't make anyone wrong. It is just a simple fact.
Another fact is that this year's tourney will likely be devoid of Mid-Majors more than any in recent memory. Long gone is the memory of 2006, when the MVC sent four and the Colonial sent two (as did the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West). It is unlikely this year that any of those conferences other than the A-10 and Mountain West will see multiple bids in 2009. Instead the Big East is tracking for 9, The ACC 7, Big Ten and Big 12 looking like a minimum of 6 each...
The biggest sufferers from the lack of attention are the leagues that are really good, and suffer from, gasp, parity. The same "parity" that was used to hail the rise of the mid-major is the same thing that will cost them 4-5 bids in March.
For example, you will not find a more competitve quality league in the country than the Mountain West. UNLV, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, San Diego State and Wyoming. None of those seven would embarass themselves in the Big Dance. However, for that same reason you have six team between two and three losses at the top of the league. None of them will get the gaudy 24 or 25 wins you need to perk up voters eyes. UNLV, BYU and Utah have te best shot to dance, as they played slightly stronger schedules and have bigger names. Still, despite wins over Lousiville, Gonzaga and a close loss to Wake Forest, one of those three, along with their remaining conference mates will likely have to aspire to NIT glory.
Ditto for the Missouri Valley. These teams are slugging it out, playing close games and beating each other up every night. Just like in the Big East. Unfortunatly for them, the leader of this slugfest struggled in the pre-conference schedule (N. Iowa). Therefore, the conference is "down." Drake, Creighton, Evansville, Bradley and Northern Iowa will be slugging it out is the conference tourney; likely the winner takes all. The loser? Yup. kNITting it is...
Expect one bid for the MVC.
Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Colonial Conference. Northeastern sits atop the pile, with George Mason and VCU clipping at their heels, one and two losses back respectivly. All three have RPI's between 50-60. Good, but not great. Then again, tough to boost a sagging RPI when no BCS school in their right mind is going to schedule a home and home with you. George Mason missed their chance for a resume win, falling by four at Dayton. VCU got , but missed chances against Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Conference leader Northeastern severly damaged the other two's hopes by getting beaten savagly by Memphis and Michigan and scoring just 37 points in a loss to Big East doormat South Florida.
Not a real compelling case for multiple bids, and a real tough decision for the committee. For the record, George Mason was an at-large qualifier in 2006 after losing the conference championship game to UNC Wilmington.
My take? Only one will dance. Same for an improved, but still clearly inferior C-USA as well.
Again, it is not "good" or "bad" ostensbily. It just makes fo a little less shine and luster on the grandest event in Amrican sports (yes, I know the Super Bowl was yesterday,) the NCAA tournament.
Who is this year's George Mason? Maybe no one...
The best thing about the tourney is that once you are in,
anyone can be the Cinderalla.
Once you're in.
