Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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The Maniac's First Bracket - Jan 26th

Rather than Bracketeering this week, settle in for the first glimpse at The Maniac's Bracket.

The Maniac had a fun day today after having an MRI on his brain, which, ironically many of you have long suggested necessary.  While all is well, and my health is super-duper OK, the picks of late might have been a red flag for concern (and a thorough brain X-Ray..)  However, this bracket is a good first attempt to sort out the Madness impending.

A couple of notes: first, it is a projection.  For example, I realize Northwestern would NOT be in today.  I also realize that not every small conference winner is currently in first place in their conference.  In the Summit, I like IUPUI over Oakland and in the Southern I tabbed Charleston over Western Carolina.  Those subtle tweaks have little to do with the overall bracket and seeding.

The biggest difference between us and Bracketology is the predictive element of the bracket.  I looked at current records, but also opportunities for RPI's to rise and fall, likely losses looming ahead, and teams poised to rattle off a few W's in a row, and then slotted teams accordingly.  It is easy to see a strong finish for Northwestern coming, due to the uneven nature of the schedule; hence a #10 in my first projection.  (Though something tells me NW fans aren't that concerned about seeding....)

As always, it is sure to spark debate, but that is what makes College Hoops so fantastic.

Enjoy!  And feel free to write with gripes and comments.

LEFT SIDE

1	Syracuse		Michigan St
16	Rob Mor/TX So.		Maine
8	New Mexico		Xavier
9	Oklahoma St		Cincinnati
4	Temple		Tennessee
13	Cornell		Murray St.
5	Clemson		Kansas State
12	St. Mary's		Siena
6	BYU		UAB
11	Florida		Wichita St.
3	Gonzaga		Purdue
14	No. Colorado		Lafayette
7	Butler		Cal
10	Old Dominion		UNLV
15	Morgan State		Denver
2	Texas		Villanova

RIGHT SIDE:

Kansas		Kentucky
Texas A&M CC		Campbell
Maryland		Northern Iowa
Baylor		Memphis
Vanderbilt		Ohio State
Coastal Carolina		Louisiana Tech
Wisconsin		Pitt
Rhode Island		Charlotte
Mississippi St		Ole Miss
Wake Forest		Missouri
Georgetown		Georgia Tech
Charleston		IUPUI
Uconn		North Carolina
Florida State		Northwestern
Akron		Pacific
Duke		West Virginia

COMMENTS ON JAN 26th BRACKET:

Big Leaps & Top Dogs:  

Vanderbilt is much higher than they would be if the season ended today.  However, I have a feeling they split with Kentucky and end up second in the SEC East.  Their current record is 16-3 and they have already won all three of their road games in the SEC, including at rival Tennessee.  They are in excellent shape to finish on the 3 or 4 line.

Georgia Tech:  I know, they are not even close to a three seed...yet.  I like Tech as the #2 team in a good and balanced ACC.  Right now they might be hard to separate from Maryland, Wake and Clemson but give it a few more weeks and I think the Rambling Wreck will float toward the top of the league.

Michigan State is quietly amassing one of the best tourney resumes in the nation.  They make the turn in the Big Ten undefeated, and seem likely to win the league, with three game leads over Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State.  Their out-of-conference losses are all quality, and their RPI will continue to climb as Big Ten play provides very few gimmes.  They seem as well positioned from a remaining-schedule standpoint as any team aiming for a #1 seed.

Syracuse is my #1 overall team.  I've had them #1 for a week now, and see no reason to drop them off the top line, even if they sustain a few conference losses.  Their head-to-head with Villanova might prove a decisive contest, however.

I gave Kansas and Kentucky the nod for the final two slots, though I expect both to lose at least two more games.  Texas could vault over Kansas by winning their matchup in two weeks, and winning the Big 12 Tourney.  Kentucky's path seems clear in conference, but if they slip more than two or three times, expect a second BEast or Big 12 team to capture the fourth #1 seed.

UAB as a #6, Temple as a #4 and Georgetown at a #3 are all high for now, as might be Purdue (#3).  Those slots represent season projection finish rather than current status. 

Surprises?

North Carolina is going to make the tournament.  They are.  If they go 7-4 down the stretch (very possible) and win a game in the ACC Tourney they would finish at 21-12.  They'd own non-conference wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, and their losses would be to Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky.  It is easy to kick Roy and the Heels while they are down, but despite some stumbles they are likely a tourney team, and a 6 to 10 seed to boot.  I have them as a #7, based on the above record projection.  They are still three or four bad losses away from talking NIT...

UAB, Butler, and BYU:  Expect three teams with the top records in the country to still find themselves outside the Top 4 seed line.  BYU blew a golden opportunity to vault into the upper echelon losing at New Mexico this week.  The Mountain West is solid, but not solid enough to earn a top 4 seed without a near-flawless record.  Butler will not face another team inside the RPI Top 100 the rest of the season.  While that gets them to the Dance comfortably, it is hard to see them moving up a seed line, even if teams above them falter a little bit.  UAB is the most interesting case.  The have a few quality wins (Tulsa, Butler, Cincinnati), and are amassing a gaudy record in the solid C-USA.  However, if the committee looks at the strength of their play in many of the wins over poor opponents, their seed will tumble...Fortunatly for the Blazers, the RPI is rarely that sophisticated.

Memphis:  The Tigers have completely vanished from the collective basketball world's conscious, and I have yet to see a mock bracket that included the Tigers.  Consider this: the Tigers have home-and-homes with Tulsa and UAB remaining.  They also host Gonzaga next week (HUGE opportunity to claim a bid).  If they go just 3-2 in those games (and I think they will) and win the other very winnable games remaining (also think they will) they will be sitting at 24-7, with three of their losses coming to Kansas, Syracuse and Tennessee (and also some combination of the three teams mentioned prior).  Other than a 1-pointer to UMass you can't find a bad loss.  That smells like a tourney team to me.

Wichita State:  My fondness for mid-majors might be showing, but I really think the Shockers will get an at-large spot if they need it (should Northern Iowa win the MVC Tourney).  The catch?  If someone other than N. Iowa wins the tourney.  I can't see the committee taking three from the Valley.

Florida:  Talk about living dangerous, if Chandler Parsons' two buzzer beaters do not fall, the Gators are sitting 13-7, (3-3) and NIT-bound.  Instead, they are 15-5 and in prime position to return to the Dance for the first time since cutting down the nets in 2007.

Omissions?

Louisville:  Some may give the Cards the nod over Cincy, particularly after last weekend's win.  However, when it is all said and done the Cards pre-conference struggles will do them in.  In the middle of the muddled BEast I like UConn and Cincinnati to emerge as te conferences' sixth and seventh bids.

Tulsa:  I like the Golden Hurricane, but the further you dig into their resume you find it incredibly barren.  The gut-wrenching loss the other night to UAB might be a death sentence unless they can sweep Memphis.

Texas A&M:  Many might have them slotted ahead of Baylor and Missouri.  I just don't see it.  I also fanned on OK State in the preseason.  They appear to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12.  Back to A&M, they do have wins over Clemson and Minnesota from the preseaosn to buoy them up if they are close, I see them as one of the first few teams out, but again, could snatch the spot from Baylor or Mizzou.

Dayton:  Everyone has had the Flyers comfortably in all year, but it is time to recognize they just do not have the profile of a tourney team and cannot afford any more "bad losses" in conference play.  They have slid weel behind Temple and Xavier,which is OK.  What is not OK is slipping behind Rhode Island, Charlotte and Richmond, which they have.

Virginia & Virginia Tech:  The first?  Nice story, but no bid.  The second?  Same ole' story, and sorry Seth, no bid.

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Wednesday's Highlights

Who has two thumbs and is who you turn to for your mid-major coverage? That's right, this guy!

The best game of the night is happening out west in The Pit. BYU has been as solid as any team in the country, racing out to a 19-1 record and a Top Ten ranking. Jimmer Fredette is the real deal (see the Maniacs All Americans) and BYU plays smart, efficient and fills the floor with guys who can flat out shoot.

Meanwhile Steve Alford's Lobos have fallen off the radar after dropping a few unexpected games, but are still a solid NCAA-bound 16-3. BYU is a little bit better, New Mexico is a bit more athletic.

The difference tonight? The Pit. I put it up there with the Kohl Center and The Kennel as the most unlikely places to sneak out with a win. Give me Darrington Hobson and the Lobo's plus the two tonight. It will be not only a huge win for
NMex, but an even bigger win for the Mountain West's hopes for snagging three bids this March.

Temple takes their unbeaten conference record on the road tonight to upsart Charlotte. The 49er's got a huge win over bubblemate Richmond earlier this week, edging them slightly ahead on the ladder. Beating Temple tonight would make their surprising tourney drive even more solid. Charlotte has been somewhat of a question mark against top flight competition, but to be fair moat of those games were on the road.

With the exception of the Kansas game, every time I've
seen Temple play they have been sensational. Charlotte needs this win to move in better bubble position. Temple is looking to remain in the front of the A10 and secure a top four seed in March.

Should be a great game, give me Temple laying just one.


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Two Major Mid-Major Battles

It is my sincere belief that all four of the teams below merit a spot in the tourney. It is also my sincere conviction that at least one will get left behind. That makes tonight's games absolutly dynamite must-see midmajor TV.

At 7pm, Rhode Island travels to Dayton. Both teams lost at Xavier last week and everyone trails Temple in the A-10. Third place in the A-10 is getting into the Dance this year. Many people have four and five teams projected in the field. I'm not so sure that will hold once conference parity starts to settle. History tells us seven or eight loss teams in the A10 are on pretty tenuous ground at best.

The Flyers were the preseason favorites who fell off the map a bit after stumbling early in Maui. Rhode Island surged into consciousness by racing off to a 14-1 start. The winner tonight takes a huge step towards secuing a likely bid. The loser? Is it too early to talk bubble?

In C-USA we get to witness a first in the new conference era; a battle for conference supremecy that does NOT involve Memphis. Memphis is still good, UTEP looks solid and Marshall is far better than anticipated. Let's be real though. No more than two teams from this league are going. The ACC and Big 12 are just too deep to leave many bids up for grabs.

UAB has been ranked, and enters at 17-2. However, their wins of late have been unimpressive to say the least. Tulsa is the best team in this league and I think they prove it tonight.

Either way, both games tonight are fantastic matchups worth DVR'ing.


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Three for the Road

It is a proven fact that once conference play begins, it is tough to take down anyone on their home floor. Top teams like Texas, Duke, Purdue and others have proven it, all being dropped by lesser ranked foes on the road.

That said, The Maniac is staking his 11-games over .500 record on the line by backing some road favorites. Have no fear, have I ever steered you wrong??

There aren't many D1 games tonight (just 15) but nearly everyone of them is a good one.

Michigan State kicks off the night on ESPN when they travel to in-state rival Michigan. Michigan has been tough to figure and very dissapointing, a win over Sparty might be the only thing that can save the season. That adds a huge sense of urgency to an already amped up rivalry. Michigan will claw like their backs are to the wall.

And it still won't matter. State is on fire and like seemingly every Izzo team, is hitting their late season stride. Give me a rejuvinated Kalin Lucas and State laying 3.

Presure? What pressure? Kentucky gets their first chance to handle the mantle of being number one, and don't expect Calipari's Cats to blink. They relish the spotlight and tend to match the intensity of their opponent. I'm not sure getting everyone's "best shot" is such a bad thing for Big Blue.

Gimme the Cats laying six and a half.

Lastly, Clemson fell out of the rankings this week after losing two games. The games were a two pointer at Tech and a loss at Cameron Indoor. Not exactly embarassing results. I love the Tigers tonight at Boston College. Lay the three. I think this ones a gimme.

Other games to watch:
UNC @ NC State
Kansas St @ Baylor




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