Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

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Did someone say Bubble??

At March Maniacs it is NEVER to early to talk bubble. Tonight brings us one of the first obvious bubble games of the year when Notre Dame visits struggling Cincinnati.

Cincy flat-out gave away the St Johns game Wednesday and can ill afford a home loss to another middle of the league team. The Big East will get at least seven bids. In my estimation, six are all but locked, and the pecking order after this six has Louisville and Marquette near the top. That makes tonight's game at the Shoe of vital importance to both squads.

Cincinnati is favored by five, but I am not sure they are disciplined enough to corral Harangody with good helpside defense.

Give me the Irish on the road in an "upset"


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Saturday Picks - Jan 16th

Fresh off a fantastic 3-1 night, pulling the record to 35-27-1 on the year, the Maniac wades into one of the fullest days of the college hoops season.

Perhaps the gem of the day tips off before the clock strikes noon when Dayton travels to Xavier in an A10 blockbuster. The schools, seperated by only an hour represent the past and present of the most underrated league in the nation. Dayton has slipped off the national radar, but is still a likely tournament team capable of playing past the first weekend. Xavier seems to be clicking, having reeled off three straight since the double-OT loss at Wake.

The winner takes an early upper hand in the A-10 race and likely starts getting a few votes in the AP poll. The line says Muskies by six and a half, I'm not picking this one, but wanted to make sure to give one of the best games of the day it's proper due.

On to the picks:

Syracuse travels to Morgantown in the highest profile game of the day. It's a fantastic matchup, but I like the Orange on the road with the four and a half. It will be interesting to see if the 'Eers can utilize the size an versatility of Butler and Ebanks in the high post and short corners against the zone. Great game; gimme the Cuse +4.5

Is Clemson for real? I think so. I think they keep rolling, beating NC St on the road. Staying in the ACC, let me ask you a question. On a neutral floor, who's better? GA Tech or North Carolina? Tough call? Then why are the Heels laying EIGHT? Gimme Tech to cover.

Pitt only laying three hosting spotty Louisville? That tells me Vegas isn't sold yet on the Panthers. After wins at UConn and Syracuse I can't find anymore reason to doubt Dixon's club. Gimme Pitt; lay the three.

In the Big 12, Mizzou has been the most pleasant surprise; Oklahoma the exact converse. So why would it be a surprise for the Tigers to run all over 'em in Norman? Yeah, I don't think ot would either. Take the Tigers laying two.

Another Big 12 game; Baylor hosts OK St. Not sold on the Pokes and their soft wins. Baylor meanwhile has been tested frequently and shown well. I think only one of these two cam dance this March, so this game is bigger than it might first appear. I like Baylor to bring their A game and cover the four at home.

One last pick. I can't see anyway Purdue drops a third straight game, though they ARE winless since I wrote the glowing bromance article about them. I am a little hurt, but the affection remains strong. This is a tough one, given my equally long affinity for Northwestern, but I just don't see them being able to corral an angry Boilermaker squad, even at home.

RECAP:
Syracuse +4
Clemson -4
Pitt -3
Mizzou -2.5
GA Tech +8
Baylor -4
Purdue -6


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Thursday Quick Picks - Jan 14th

The best game of the night is on after most of us have long since gone to sleep, but if you have the means, DVR Gonzaga @ St Mary's tonight at 11est. Its the best of the non BSC conference games of the year, with the possible exception of Dayton/Xavier. The Zags are at the end of a brutal five game stretch that began with a humiliating loss to Duke, but has since seen wins over Oklahoma, Illinois and Portland (the last two on the road). A win tonight puts not only the Duke loss, but also the WCC competition in the rear view mirror.

St. Mary's has a lot to play for as well. Their record merits at-large consideration this year. Then again, it did last year as well, and even with the bulk of their losses coming without injured PG Patty Mills the Gaels still found themselves on the outside looking in. Mills is gone, but Omar Samhan has emerged as the best big man out west and a legit 2nd or 3rd team All American candidate. Tonight is a huge game for St Mary's. A loss at home to the Zags will be dificult to make up down the road, both in the standings and in the slim window of earning some national respect.

I like the Zags to sneak a conference-controlling win on the road tonight, straight up - but like getting four and a half as well.

In other games:

Georgetown defends the perimeter well. Seton Hall relies solely on Hazell scoring. I imagine the Hoyas know that and will adjust. Gimme GTown -7.

Has there ever been a team more primed for an emotional letdown than the Tennessee Vols? They should still win but I can't see them covering the 16 against Auburn.

Lastly give me the 15.5 and Cleveland St visiting Butler tonight. The Bulldogs are much better, but the Vikes tend to play them tough in this conference rivalry.



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Don't Believe the Board

The ACC is going to be nuts this year. Three games in, EVERY team has at least one loss...except preseason last place pick Virginia.

There were two absolute blowouts last night in which the final scores inched back towards respectable. Don't be fooled by the scores. Clemson has bounced back from their conference opening beatdown by Duke and looked awesome last night humiliating North Carolina. The Tarheels were out-toughed in embarrasing fashion and their backcourt's (particularly their ballhandling) woes are becomming glaring.

Meanwhile Miami's big test could be scored an F- despite losing by "only" 18 at Virginia Tech. At one point they were down 35-8 in the first half and never contended in the game for a second. It makes the 15-1 record even more suspect than is was coming in.

Your guess in the ACC is as good as anyone elses. Really, I can't recall a league being more chaotic one through twelve. I'm not sure we are going to see too much seperation even by the end of the season, But next week I'll take a stab at a few projections.

Here's three quick ones:
@ Duke wins the league
@ Georgia Tech and Clemson are the most formidable
Challengers
@ Virginia finishes under .500

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Did You Know Michael Jordan's Son Plays Here?!?

Ok, that was the sarcastic title I had queued up before the UCF/Marshall game televised on CBS College Sports. As predicted, the analysts spoke of him nearly exclusivly in the intro (after mentioning Keith Clanton though, which showed they had at least seen a UCF box score before showing up to broadcast), the him being the bespectacled heir to his Airness; Marcus Jordan.

I intended the title not as dismissive towards Jordan but rather to poke fun of the coverage of some midmajor games that are at best shoddily researched (my usual example is Greg Anthony covering "Ex-zayvier" games while their play-by-play guy talks about the need to get it inside to Love. He's not a clear out post-up guy, he hasn't been for three seasons and he isn't option one now. Seriously watch some game film!)

Yet I digress. Last night Marcus Jordan turned in the best game if his young college career and showed flashes of what he can become; a very good mid-major college basketball player. Were his surname not Jordan that would actually be one heck of a compliment, and it is intended to be. He was actually meritorious of the top billing he recieved before the game.

The announcers, especially Gillen, did a nice job of talking about the two much more relevant stories; one, UCF is a good, young team. I probably sound like a homer, but if Jermaine Taylor were still there, they could have contended in a good, but not top heavy, C-USA. The new gym is beautiful and they put 9,700 in it last night. This program is a sleeping giant.

The second story is the potential greatness of Marshall seven-foot freshman Hassad Whiteside. He recorded his second triple-double of the season, both included blocked shots. He was averaging more than five a game heading in to the contest, good enough to lead the nation by a comfortable margin.

It would be easy to dismiss Whiteside because of Marshall's light early schedule. However dismiss him and the Herd at your own peril. The Herd are 14-2,(3-0) and Whiteside is clearly more developed than shot-blocking sensation Hasheem Thabeet at the same age. Is this feeding the about-to-exist hype machine a little early? Perhaps. But I have a funny feeling Whiteside is a first-rounder in two seasons. As Al Maquirre famously quipped, "you can't teach height.". But you can teach turn around jumpshots. Once Hassad adds that, he will be pretty lethal.

All in all, it was a good game last night between two middle of the pack teams from Conference USA. To me, just another great example of the depth of college basketball in 2010.



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If There's Such a Thing as an Unimpressive 15-1

Then it would appropriately describe the Miami Hurricanes so far thus season. The ACC appears to be more of a circus than ever (look how many teams are 1-1 going into this week - basically everyone), and despite Miami's record they need a few marquee conference wins to validate it.

So tonight they'll head to Blacksburg to try and do just that. On the other side, it seems Seth Greenburg's Hokies are in 17-19 win bubble territory every season. If they want a better fate in 2010, they'll have to protect their home court, starting tonight.

Good game tonight. I believe you can catch it on espn2 or espnU.



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ET Phones Home

Well, I officially won my bet with myself to come up with the worst possible article title of the year. There have been some potential bad "Wall" forced puns, but SI beat me to the punch. Even a brief moment where "USC goes OJ (allegedly) on basketball program, slicing postseason hopes" seemed like a possibilty. Yes. Tempting indeed. In the end, seriously, what's better than a forced catch phrase from a 27 year old movie?? Mission accomplished.

But enough about me. Actually, more about me. How many of the so-called experts were touting Evan Turner as their preseason POY? That's right, no one but the beloved Manic. After last night's 33 point, 9 rebound performance on the road in a win over Purdue, it's time to make some room on the ET bandwagon. He's a legitimate challenger to John Wall and he's doing it with less around him.

One other benefit: it's become super trendy of late to increase the value of a player when his team flounders while they are injured. With the proliferation of sports talk you hear it all the time. Garnett goes down and the C's go 3-4 and he's suddenly more of an MVP candidate. (by that logic I'd like to nominate Me-Mac of the Houston Rockets LVP). I never agreed with the logic but if there was ever a case for it to be employed, this is it.

Without Turner the Buckeyes looked like a bubble team at best. With him? As I predicted before the season they are right with Michigan St.and Purdue in the race for the Big Ten title and a top two seed in March (though I admittedly fanned on Wisconsin preseason, they are in the mix too)

The Buckeyes are going to surge in the polls and are a team to be reckoned with. They remind me a ton of Syracuse; dynamic POY-caliber wings (Johnson & Turner), a lights-out spot up shooter (Routins & Diebler), good secondary scorer/ defenders (Jardine & Lighty) a bruiser inside to do the dirty work (Onawaku & Lauderdale) and steady ballhandling and decent benches. Both teams are built for March.

I'm not sure Turner can make up the gap the John Wall Hurricane has blown out to, but a few more games like last night's and he'll be pretty tough to ignore.

In the meantime, enjoy the nation's most versatile player and I'll work on some good headlines...(thinking something with"Ike" need some help on this one...)



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Done? Oklahoma Drops Conference Opener by 31

I was hesitant to bury Oklahoma too soon.  Then they went out and lost 91-60 to Baylor in the conference opener... No article or really much to say, just thought that was the most startling score of the weekend that slipped a bit under the radar.  Baylor is good, probably tourney good this year.  But still, a 31 point loss in the opener?  Things are getting really close to over in Norman for Capel and Willie Warren.

Let's call tonight what it is.  Last chance time.  Get housed by Oklahoma State tonight on ESPN and we can start talking football in Norman, OK.

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Weekend Review - Big East Jan 10th

The nation's most exciting conference of 2008-2009 is living up to the advance billing once again in 2010.  Here is a quick rundown of the weekend that was and the big games coming up this week.

Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.  Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws.  In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp.  His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas.  If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...

The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame.  Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win.  Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill.  If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year.  His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.

Seton Hall notched a big win as well.  The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney.  Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.

Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova.  The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3.  The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league.  As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine. 

Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly).  Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova. 

Team UP:  Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati

Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)

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Weekend Review - ACC Jan 10th

The salvo Georgia Tech fired across Duke's bow Saturday has to resonate leaguewide.  The message?  The ACC is more wide open than it has been in a decade.  Duke loses their road opener and North Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable in the young season.  I wrote several weeks ago that #3 through #11 this league was as jumbled as any.  Perhaps it should be ammended to #1-#12; i.e. top to bottom.

Clemson handled their homecourt with ease, downing Boston College 72-56.  The win was a nice bounce back for the Tigers after their opening loss in Cameron.  The game of the day was Miami defeating Wake Forest 77-76 at home.  Both teams look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, though there is still a long way to go in a brutal conference slate.  Miami, unranked as of yesterday, is off to a 15-1 start.  Might it be view the Canes as legitimate conference title challengers?

The ACC has long played some of their finer confernce games on Sunday night.  While most people were watching the NFL, Maryland got a huge win, 77-68 over Florida State.  It seems the Terps are annually on the bubble and the non-conference performance leads you to believe it might be more of the same in 2010.  Conference wins will be huge, and it is important to win at home if you want to dance in March.

Carolina pulled away late and got a got win over a better than advertised Virginia Tech ballclub, 78-64.  And speaking of bubble, Seth Greenburg's Hokies are annual staddlers as well.  With Miami and FSU up next, they can ill-afford a 0-3 conference start and will need to knock off one of them.

Lastly, hats off to Virginia.  The Cavs were largely picked last in the preseason but won their opener 70-62 over NC State, on the road no less.  Let's not get hasty booking tourney plans, but it seems that all 12 teams will be capable of winning, and losing, on any night.

Team Up:  Virginia, Maryland, Miami
Team Down:  Boston College, NC State

Week ahead highlights:  Maryland @ Wake (Tues), UNC @ Clemson (Wed), GA Tech @ UNC & VA Tech @ FSU (Sat), Wake @ Duke (Sun)

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The Eric Gordon Theory and Volunteering

Take a good, not great team; think "Top 25-good." Then take away their senior co-captain. In addition, take away another three of their eight rotation players. Sounds like a certain recipe for disaster, right?

Not for the Tennessee Volunteers. A week ago it looked like Bruce Pearl would need to spend the remainder of the season explaining that "volunteer" only equated "community service" if is wasn't court ordered. Post season? Hell, who was going to post bail!

Then a funny thing happened on the way to the wayside. Tennessee didn't implode. They actually got better. Thursday night they hammered a good Charlotte team in their first test. Then they got a lot better. Like 76-68 over #1 Kansas better.

I think I can explain it too. Dean Smith famously said that for one game, the absence of a great player can actually be a positive as it makes you more unpredictable to defend. It is in the after where the problem lies. If that were true, it could explain the impressive Charlotte win. Either way, the quote never went as far as to address combing the campus for walk-ons in order to avoid a Hickory Huskers, "my team is on the floor" playing with four scenario...

Back to my explanation. I call it the Eric Gordon Theory. Our long time readers will recall several columns questioning the heart and hustle of the Hooiser's ballyhooed freshman several years back. I questioned his NBA readiness, his focus, basically his entire game. Then Kelvin Sampson's cell phone bill came due and IU dismissed the coach amidst controversy and NCAA heat. Things got worse, rumors, lots of them, began to surface regarding many of his teammates "extra-curricular" activities that were a little more serious than some underage beers. By all accounts, Gordon was a fairly reserved, polite, and non-drug using kid (all speculation - no factual evidence to substantiate my theory for my litigation-skewed readers...).

Maybe he was "pouting" and "losing focus" and "forcing shots" not because he was selfish and stat-hungry. Maybe he was just genuinely miserable. Think about it. You're 18 years old. Your coach and mentor was fired. Your teammates; your new family, engage in illegal activities you want no part of and that would jeopardize your NBA career. Ever since you were a little kid, you dreamed of playing for the crimson and cream of Indiana...

And this is what you get. You can't complain publicly because you'd be betraying your team, your school; your state. You can't; hold on, you won't quit. But you don't really want to play either. You just want this experience, this season to be over.

In Gordon's own words, excerpted from the Indy Star:

“Sometimes it felt like it wasn’t even a real basketball team because of all the turmoil that went on. I was just thinking about that the other day. It was so crazy that all that stuff threw off a good season and made it a waste, basically. It was really tough for us to be around each other all the time off the court because we were so separate.”

Of course, this my personal interpretation and you could argue me wrong... but I wouldn't budge. The Theory makes sense, and it happens more than us, the viewers, can see.

Here's how the Eric Gordon Theory applies.

Imagine you are a freshman or sophomore who loves basketball and is a decent kid. Believe it or not, there are a ton of them out there (go to a Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga, Syracuse, etc game). Your senior leader and multiple teammates lead everyday lives where it is not just possible, but normal to get in a car with liquor, marijuana and guns with altered serial numbers. I get it; college kids drink and many even try smoking weed. It doesn't make them bad kids. The guns? Now we're getting serious. My Mom used to say nothing good ever happens after 2am. Um, make that double if you are high and packing heat. For lack of a more polite colloquialism, now we're talking some gangsta' shizzz.

Let's assume that with the four suspensions, the garbage has all been taken out. All of a sudden a cloud lifts and everything basketball; practice, road trips, hanging out with teammates, is fun again. The whole team begins playing and having fun, just like they envisioned when they signed their letters of intent. We can just play ball.

Amazingly, the results improve.

Does it make sense that a team loses four of its top eight players and improves? Not if the game was played on paper. But it isn't. It is played by real people with real lives and real ups and downs. Sometimes just wanting to be there makes all the difference.

On Sunday in Knoxville, after taking down the #1 team in the nation, there's nowhere else Bruce Pearl and his kids would rather be.

Article Research and Related Links:
http://www.wbir.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=109372
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2008/12/eric-gordon-says-drugs-caused-problems-at-iu-under-kelvin-sampson
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/basketball/ncaa/01/01/tennessee.players.arrested.ap/index.html

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