X Marks the Spot

The Maniac has been taking shots at the Pitt Panthers and their less-than-stellar NCAA Tourney track record. For those of you who have been with us for a while, the term "Go Pitt" has entered MM.com vernacular as a shorter, quicker way to explain "flopping early in the tourney."

Well tonight the Panthers will attempt to defeat, for the first time, a team seeded lower than a #5 in the tourney. Their opponent? None other that the Maniac's admitted bias; the Xavier Musketeers.

Less than 4% of our pool participants have X advancing tonight, your's truly in the less silent minority, of course. But is it really a possible upset in the making or just a true homer pick filled with blind optimism?

Let's take a look:

Three Reasons Xavier Can Beat Pitt:

1. Depth - Xavier has good depth in their frontcourt and has a few fould they can waste playing rough with DeJuan Blair. Jason Love is a load inside, athletic and physical. He is limited offensivly but is an excellent post defender. Matching up with Sam Young will be a bigger problem, as X will have to use a blend of the slighter Derrick Brown, the shorter CJ Anderson and the slower Jason Love (when 7'0'' freshman Kenny Frease is in the game to cover Blair).

Xavier is a solid nine deep, and a very phsyical defensive-minded club that won't be afraid to mix it up.

2. Tourney Experience - The kids from X have been here before. BJ Raymond canned two of the biggest shots in Xavier history in last year's Sweet 16 victory over West Virginia. He is back as a senior leader and has connected on over 40% of his 3's this year. Don't expect that number to slide under tourney pressure. Derrick Brown, CJ Anderson and Jason Love all played significant roles on last year's Elite 8 squad as well.

3. Officiating - In Pitt's few losses this year, there has been one constant; foul trouble on DeJuan Blair. Xavier has slashers and leapers in Brown and McLain, post players in Love and Frease and aggressive penetrating guards in Anderson and Dante Jackson. The point is, X will attack the hoop. If the game is called tight, they can pick up some fouls on Pitt inside and challenge their limited depth. If the game gets rough, I don;t think X will shy away, but a quicker whistle tonight is defintely in their favor.

All that said, does Xavier win tonight? I don't know. I picked them out of the shoot in my original bracket, and still contend their best chance to get to their first Final Four was to land in Pitt's bracket. Not that they are a "better" team than Pitt, it is just a better matchup than UNC, Louisville or UConn. Pitt is the better team, but they better play well tonight or they just might find themselves "going Pitt" once again.

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A Guaranteed Lose

Tune in tonight at 7pm on ESPN and you are guaranteed to see a team lose. Now, that is not particularly original, since most sporting events conclude with a loser, but what makes tonight's game interesting is that EVERYONE loses, no matter who wins.

When Notre Dame and Kentucky take the floor tonight, the only glamorous thing about the game is the name on the jerseys. Notre Dame is finishing out what has to be considered the most disappointing season in the country. Tabbed as high as sixth in the preseason polls, the Irish were considered a Final Four contender when they met up with the Tarheels in Maui in November. Thirteen losses and a tenth place Big East finish later, they are hosting an NIT game. Even cutting down the nets in the Garden would feel a little hollow for the veteran-laden ballclub.

Kentucky is looking to salvage the worst season since the probation scandal rocked the Bluegrass in the late 80's/early 90's. Many predict that Billy Gilespie is walking a tightrope with no safety net the remainder of the season; meaning one wobble and he's falling off. The Maniac agrees wholeheartedly, a change is certianly not unreasonable for the Cats. Supposing Patterson and Meeks both go pro (quite likely), looking at the meager freshman class currently enrolled and a less-than-spectacular recruiting class coming in, it is easy to envision next year being (gasp) even worse for the Big Blue.

The winner tonight advances to Madison Square Garden and their season continues. Another game, another week left to reflect on what could have, should have been. Win or lose, neither team wins tonight.

So... if they win, does the NIT banner go up there as well? Methinks no...

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How the West Will Be Won

The West has unfolded pretty much according to plan. Other than #5 Purdue beating #4 Washington (Purdue was the Vegas favorite) every better seed advanced to Glendale. Will the upper-seed dominance continue or will this tourney start getting shaken up Thursday night?

GAMES: #1 UConn v #5 Purdue (7:07 ET) & #2 Memphis v #3 Missouri (aprx. 9:37 ET)

#1 Connecticut:

Why the Huskies Will Win: Because they are the biggest, best, and most talented team in the region. They have experienced point guard play in senior AJ Price. They have the nation's most intimidating defensive force in 7'3'' Haskeem Thabeet, scoring and defense and toughness in senior Jeff Adrien and off-the chart athleticism in Stanley Robinson. Add in the excellent job Kemba Walker has done filling in the void at 2-guard, an able bench and 2-time national champion Jim Calhoun steering the ship and you have a pretty imposing task in eliminating the Huskies.

Why they Won't: Pitt has shown the blue-print for beating the Huskies; beat them up and grind them down. If that doesn't work hip-toss Thabeet like PJ Brown did Charlie Ward in the '97 Playoffs (great idea DeJuan Blair). It seems like the kind of recipe a Big Ten-tough team like Purdue could cook up. If they don't Memphis has no problem playing a physical, helter-skelter style that could give the Huskies problems.

#2 Memphis:

Why the Tigers Will Win: Speed kills. This team can run and rebound all day long. They don't shoot it well from the perimeter, but if they can turn the other team over and get out on the break they are deadly. They lost a lot of points off last year's squad, but do still return a core of tourney-tested vets, along with super-frosh Tyreke Evans. Jump shots have a funny way of going AWOL over a 6-game tourney; defense does not.

Why They Won't: Media folk like to point out that the Tigers haven't lost in several months, ever since making the switch to Tyreke Evans at the point. The Maniac likes to point out that other than Gonzaga those wins were all against bums. Conference USA is terrible. Really, it sucks. UAB and Tulsa were fringe bubble teams who bowed out early in the NIT. The rest of that conference is even worse. What is going to happen when they get up against a Top 10 caliber opponent under the bright lights of March? Mizzou might not be the answer, but I'd take UConn over this squad 8 times out of 10.

#3 Missouri:

Why The Tigers Will Win: This Tiger team tied for the Big 12 regualr season crown; a conference that has proven it's mettle this tourney over the more heralded ACC and Big Ten. Three Big 12 squads still remain in the draw; Oklahoma State and Texas showed themselves well, and even Baylor is headed to MSG in the NIT. The point is, the Tigers have played and beaten a ton more quality foes than have the other Tigers in Tennessee. Missouri prefers the scrambling up tempo game that Memphis thrives off of, and has the athletes to run with them. Should the game slow down, Missouri is a superior half court team with a legit inside-out presence in DeMarre Carroll.

Why They Won't: It has been a season that far exceeded expectations in Missouri, but the Tigers are playing up a league this weekend with Memphis and possilby UConn. They are a good frenetic team, but don't really have the answers for the size and depth of Connecticut. The more I look at the two teams, they do match up well against Memphis though...

#5 Purdue:

Why the Boilermakers Will Win: Toughness. Over the past 5 years, the teams that have given UConn tourney fits are not teams that were more talented than them, it was teams that were willing to outfight them. JuJuan Johnson has the springs and athleticism to outmanuever Thabeet and possibly bait him into early foul trouble. Purdue's backcourt is not spectacular, but is deep and solid with Kramer, Moore and Keaton Grant. The real X-factor is Robbie Hummel. They have been really tough since he returned from back problems, and his outside shooting from the 4-spot can loosen up the Huskie defense. Plus, Purdue likes to mix it up, Pitt gave the Huskies fits playing the same way. If Purdue can punch first, they have a shot.

Why They Won't: Connecticut is a better team. Their size and pressure can mean real trouble for a Purdue team that is at times offensivly challenged. If they do not shoot the ball very well from the perimeter, it is difficult to see them pulling off the upset over the Huskies. Should they advance, they face another difficult challenge as both Missouri and Memphis play a faster, more athletic game than the Boilers are comfortable with.


Maniac's Picks: I originally had Purdue besting Memphis for a suprise Final Four birth in my pre-tourney bracket, but admit lacking much confidence in that prognosis. I thought UConn was a bit prone to sleepwalking in big games, and I do like to "Ricky Bobby" my pool entries. I think UConn wins 8 of 10 times, but I will stick with Purdue mustering up every ounce of toughness, shooting well, out-phsicalling (see Pitt x2) the Huskies.

Give me Memphis over Mizzou in a fantastically fun game to watch (score approaching high 80's and up) and Purdue putting the clamps on the Tigers Saturday afternoon and advancing to Detroit.

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Pacer's Picks - Exclusive MM.com Interview

We were fortunate enough to sit down with Pacer, one weekend in to his quest to become the first dog to win the MarchManiacs.com Bracket Contest. Here are some of the insights from a remarkable interview with a true competitor.

(Editor's Note: Pacer made his selection through a series of timed fetches, selecting teams by the speed of retrieval. 67 fetches were completed in all before settling on Oklahoma over UConn in the Final)


Maniac: Pacer, tough first week. You are currently in last, and have already lost one of your Final Four (Florida State). Do you still have a shot at this thing?

Pacer: Of course I do. No one else has Oklahoma cutting down the nets. Have you seen Blake Griffin recently? That guy is a beast, a total pit bull. I think he could go Danny Manning and carry that team all the way. Plus, I have Michigan State in the Final Four. Most of you kittens have Louisville, Pitt, North Carolina and UConn/Memphis. When things start getting a little chaotic, I'll be smiling.

Maniac: You definitely took some chances with some bold picks. It takes some balls to pick someone outside the five that everyone loved coming in.

Pacer: Ironic you mention balls. I have gotten even more ballsy with my pick since...well, since the "incident." It's been two years since and rarely a day goes by I don't look under the couch or in a closet for 'em... I mean they don't just disappear.... When I find the guy responsible, you better believe I'm gonna -

Maniac: Um, yeah. Anyway. Nice job on the Western Kentucky, Arizona, and Dayton picks.

Pacer: Yup.

Maniac: Not so good on the North Dakota State, Portland State, CS Northridge and American picks. Seriously, American?

Pacer: Damn right American. You better believe I am supporting any school called "American." You know in some of the countries they are outsourcing your jobs to, they'd eat me. Literally, eat me.

Maniac: That's kinda racist.

Pacer: Sorry Mr. "Politically Correct." This from the guy who made a Special Olympics joke in last year's tourney column! Sheesh, who do you think you are, Barack Obama?!?

Maniac: Moving on. Pacer, I know college hoops is one of your true passions, along with fetching, peeing on trees and licking yourself. However, given your hectic schedule and limited game viewing this season, what was your biggest challenge in filling out your brackets?

Pacer: The lack of opposable thumbs. Seriously, it is a real bitch to do this thing without thumbs.

Maniac: I can imagine.

Pacer: Plus, I feel a little singled out by most of the people in the pool, like there is a giant target on my back. It is like being surrounded by two dozen Michael Vicks.

Maniac: Seriously, a Mike Vick joke? Isn't that a little 2007? You can do better.

Pacer: Agreed, agreed. You could do better too, "Mr. College Basketball Expert." You really think Purdue and Gonzaga are going to the Final Four and that Xavier is toppling Pitt? And they say I'm the one with my head in my crotch?

Maniac: Those picks might have been hasty, but at least I didn't go chalk like most of the people in this pool.

Pacer: Woof, woof, I hear you there. Looks like I'm not the only one missing my balls! (pause) Come on dude, that wasn't pretty good? Way better than the Vick joke.

Maniac: Yep.

Pacer: I am looking forward to the games this week though, it is a really great Sweet 16.

Maniac: Any teams you really like this week?

Pacer: I like UConn, and, well, obviously I root Gonzaga. The Kennel is one of my favorite arenas. Other than that, just going to enjoy the games. I am for sure rooting against Villanova, Pitt and Arizona.

Maniac: Huh?

Pacer: You know, the whole cats and dogs thing...

Maniac: It is a long shot, but how do you feel about possibly beating several humans in this pool, even as a dog?

Pacer: You know, I think the whole "oh, you're an animal" thing is a little over rated. I mean, look at last year. Your horse's ass brother in law won the whole thing! The year before your Mom won, and she's a real-

Maniac: Watch it.

Pacer: -ly great grandmother who doesn't know that that much about basketball. Sheesh, relax man. So touchy.

Maniac: Any parting words of wisdom?

Pacer: Sure. You know why a dog licks his crotch?

Maniac: Yes. I've heard that joke.

Pacer: DO ya!! Do ya know why?!?!

Maniac: Yeah. Seriously. Please stop.

Pacer: Because HE CAN! Ha ha ha ha... ha ha ha ha (laughing uncontrollably). Get it?? Because he CAN! I...LOVE...that joke! Ha ha ha ha.

Maniac: One last chance. Anything prescient in parting?

Pacer: (licking himself)

Maniac: Pace? Hello!

Pacer: (still licking himself)

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Getting to the Point - Top 5 PG's in the Sweet 16

Talk about depth! As I proofed this column, it occured to me that there was no room for LaVance Fields, Willie Warren, Scottie Reynolds or Kalin Lucas on this list. AJ Price? Sorry my friend, missed the cut. The trio of PG's from Duke? Um, nope, not even cumulativly guys.

SO without further ado, here are the Maniac's Top Five PG's in the Sweet Sixteen.

5. Tyreke Evans (Memphis) - He and Willie Warren are argueably the two most important freshman in the country and will both be under intense scruntiny this weekend. I chose Evans for the simply fact that as HE goes this weekend, so goes the Tigers. If he plays well, the Tigers could be back in the Final Four once again led by a frosh sensation.

4. Matt Boldin (Gonzaga) - Probably the most unheralded of my top 5, Boldin has been a revelation over the past two months since taking over the point position for the Zags. Gonzaga has as much talent offensive as any one left in the tourney. Boldin's ability to distribute correctly, avoid turnovers and and control tempo will be vital in the Zag's bid to upset the Tarheels.

3. Sherron Collins (Kansas) - It is not usually a good sign if you rely, some times almost exclusivly, on your point guard to carry the scoring load. Yes, Collins can score with the best of them, but he also distributes the ball well and manages tempo effectivly. The Jayhawks are going to need yet another huge effort from him to get past Kalin Lucas and Michigan State.

2. Ty Lawson (UNC) - Lawson's importance to the Tarheels has been critically magnified by his recent toe injury. Simply put; Lawson is the fuel that makes the North Carolina engine run... and run... and run. No one in the nation is better at speeding up tempo, yet still maintaining control than Lawson. If he is 100%, there is no other guard in the country who can consistently turn him.

1. Jonny Flynn (Syracuse) - If I were drafting a team from only players remaining in the tourney, after obviously Blake Griffin, I'd take Jonny Flynn. Not only is he a great scorer and game manager, he is one of the best defensive guards in the tourney. The deal-sealer for me is the infectious joy and spirit he plays with. When teams start getting tight under the bright tourney lights and pressure, watch Flynn continue to smile. Leadership is more than points and assists; Flynn provides this in ample abundance for the Orange.

Honorable Mention: LaVance Fields (Pitt), Wilie Warren (Oklahoma), Kalin Lucas (Michigan St.) Scottie Reynolds ('Nova), AJ Price (UConn)

With Jonny Flynn leading the 'Cuse, they might just be pointing to Detroit...

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