Just three weeks remain in the regular season, including conference tournaments and the 34 at large teams are starting to come a
little more in focus.
Here is a stock report on the AP Top 25 poll:#1 UConn - Hold. It remains to be seen how dire the impact of Dyson is to the Huskies. The Pitt loss was simply that; a loss to a very good Pitt team in a very hyped TV contest. Most of the nation wasn't tuning in when Villanova handled the Pathers easily a few weeks ago, ergo no "the sky is falling" talk had to be endured. Both Pitt and UConn are "Holds" as they are clearly two of the five best teams in the country.
#2 Oklahoma -BUY. This team is peaking and growing at the right time. Blake Griffin is the National POY, but the Sooners have more than that going for them. Wille Warren is the most complete freshman in the country right now and runs the team superbly. Austin Johnson has been filling it up and Taylor Griffin is a solid role player. They have flown pretty under the radar for a team that is about to become the #1 team in the nation on Monday, but make no mistake, the Sooners are legit.
#3 North Carolina - BUY. Still the best team in the country when they come to play. If you are scoring at home, they have done just that for 10 straight games now in the nation's deepest and most balanced conference.
#4 Pitt - HOLD. See above. Tons of talent, tons of toughness, but also tons of other years we have written the exact same thing about Pitt. Not knocking this team, it's just...show me in March...
#5 Memphis - SELL. Nothing like an abysmal schedule to shine over a few weaknesses. Yes, you still have to win the games on your schedule, but I am not buying that a Memphis team that was unranked four weeks ago is suddenly the 5th best team in the nation after fatteneing up on the C-USA. The Gonzaga win was an impressive one, but again, still not sure this is the 5th best team in the country.
#6 Michigan State - HOLD. Purdue handed them their can last night, and exposed some of the Spartans shooting weaknesses. That said, they have depth, quickness and toughness...and Coach Izzo. I liked them a little more in the underdog role, but still think this team could make some noise in March.
#7 Louisville - BUY. The Cards might have had the strangest week in the country; losing by 35 to Notre Dame, then winning by 40+ over DePaul. Let's erase that ND game, or at least file it as evidence that the Cards are capable of lapses. Then again, with the exception of Oklahoma, everyone else has proven the same thing this season. At the end of the day, gimme the talent, athleticism and Pitino in March.
#8. Wake Forest - SELL. Has anyone else noticed the Deacons are only 6-4 in conference? Their lone non-conference wins of note are BYU and Baylor. This is a good ball club, not a great one. I think getting much further than the first weekend is a stretch for this year's squad (though easily Top 5 pre-season 2010 if everyone stays.)
#9. Duke - BUY. While everyone else is selling the Blue Devils like crazy, the Maniac continues to hold. The Clemson loss was disconcerting for sure, but nearly every team takes one or two of those through the course of the season. With the emergence of Henderson this team has offensive options like very few others. If they can find someway to steady the PG play and get Singler some help on the boards, they can still make a Final Four run.
#10. Marquette - SELL. The Maniac has been warning you about the Eagles final five games for about two months now. Starting this week, we will find out if he was right. They are a sure fire 2-3 seed right now, don't be surprised if it is a 5-6 in three weeks...
#11. Missouri - HOLD. I have been touting them all year and saying how underrated the Tigers were... but at #11 we might have reached our apex here. No possible way this is a Final Four team, but getting out of the first weekend would still be a nice accomplishment given preseason expectations.
#12. Villanova - BUY. Not only have the Wildcats impressed with their five game win streak over Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, Providence and Marquette (yes, they JUST lost to WVU), but they also have a finishing schedule that should be at least a 4-2 or even a 5-1 finish. That puts them well aligned for a 3 or 4 seed come tourney time. I love teams that have a lot of offensive weapons, but who know who their go-to scorer is come crunch time. Scottie Reynolds does, and has, filled that role for quite a while in Phily.
Teams #13-#25 tomorrow.
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