MisCALculated

It was a bad week for the artist formerly known as the 12th ranked Cal Bears. Tonight the followed up their twenty point beatdpwn to Syracuse with a not as close as the score - loss to Ohio St.

The damage done is far more than two losses. Cal was considered to be the class of an admitedly "down" Pac 10. Syracuse was picked between 4th and 7th in the BEast. Ohio St, though highly regarded, was picked third by every pundit, coach and analyist.

Both handled Cal with aplomb.

The long reaching effect? An undervuing of PAC10 wins in conference until someone scalps a big guy (or cal drops from the radar in conference play. Judging from early results; see: UCLA, it seems unlikely.

Unless Cal can redeem themselves Dec 22nd in Lawrence, you are looking at this year's SEC.

Unless of course this year's SEC is... The SEC! But that article can wait for Sunday...



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Quick picks

Ok - quick pick of night. Vanderbilt is getting five at St. Marys. Just like Davidson last night minus Steph; St Mary's lost Patty Mills. Vandy is a bubble team this year, st marys was much better last year; and was likewise bubblin'. Give me Vandy and the points.

Best game no one will see: Seton Hall @ Cornell - Our readers have already heard mention of the Red, but with a win tonight (they are favored by three) Cornell has the early season resume of an 11-12 seed out of the Ivy League.

Last pick: Gimme underrated Ole Miss in a pick em over still-developing Kansas State. I like the Rebels being in the top 25 most of this season...

Current record: 8-3-1



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Oops...

The official first swing and miss off the young season as Cal got blitzed by the reloaded and revamped syracuse orange. More than one reader has pointed out the maniac's follied ways, one even wishing Eric devendorf would find me and mistake me for a drunken coed. Ouch...

That said, we were still 2-1 A.T.S. Last night for a tidy 8-4-1 on the season. I'll take it.

Tonight gets even tougher given the sporatic performances of three of the four clubs last night in NYC. Give me Ohio state and Carolina, but two real good games I wouldn't touch in Vegas.

Random thoughts: Kentucky wins again in dangerously unspectacular fashion. They have allowed several low-major teams to go bananas behind the arc. That better tighten up quickly before a December 5th date with the Heels.

Pat Patterson was 8-9 from the floor last night. The maniac wonderers when he is going to get more touches. The cats are one of the three most talented teams in the nation. They are also one of the youngest. Who gets shots and when will continue to be a question they learn to answer in the early season. An early good answer? "Patterson" and "more often."

Where was Ohio State's energy the first 37 minutes? A few more minutes of that might have exposed unc and the shaky backcourt. As it was the frontcourt, which is better than 8-10 NBA teams right now, had their way with the
Bucks.

Evan Turner's brief cameo as Evan Turnover will be a small blip on a first team all American season. But man can Carolina get after it on D. Long and athletic. Must be horribly conflicting for Jay Bilas...


Thankfully...It's Early

The Maniac was right on track tabbing 'Nova as overrated, and admits to giving a little too little credit to Jim Laranaga's George Mason Patriots. However, despite the close score of today's game, much like Kansas and Memphis' game earlier this week; it was ugly.

Don't worry coach, we believe you...

Villanova was shooting the bonus by the 12 minute mark in the second half and a whopping four players fouled out. The Wildcats survive into round two thank to the first collegiate field goal from freshman big man Isaiah Armwood after Scottie Reynolds was bottled up into the lane. Coach Wright insists his Cats aren't the sixth best team in the nation, despite the early polls. He'll get no argument here. I'm looking forward to seeing UConn and West Virginia still, but the early showings from Georgetown, Syracuse and Nova have to leave one thinking the BEast might not be quite so mighty this March.


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Take the Money and Run

After a 3-1 Wednesday; the only blemish being a last second-break away-spread covering layup by Cincinnati, the Maniac is back with more early season tidings.

First we give you Buutler with the easy cover, then Texas by 32 (oops, I said 34) and finally Cornell easily handling UMass. I feel a nice trust building between us... let me give you a few more.

OK, call me a coward but there is no way I am touching the Ohio State v. Carolina game tonight. But I will DVR it. In what is easily the best game of the day the nation gets an early glimpse at the Maniac's POY favorite, Evan Turner. The Ohio State swingman can stuff a stat sheet like no one else in the country and will be a big reason the Buckeyes hang right with Sparty and Purdue in the Big Ten. Carolina's deep frontcourt will be a tough matchup for Lauderdale and the Bucks, with no real answer for Ed Davis AND Deon Thompson (and Zeller and Hensen and Ginyard and...)

I have no idea which side prevails, but my sneaking suspicion is that Carolina is a little overvalued while Ohio State remains a tad under the radar.

Thursday Picks:

Cal -1.5 over Syracuse - Cal boasts one of the nation's premier backcourts, while the 'Cuse are still looking to patch the holes left by Flynn and Devendorf's early departures. To ask them to have that figured out by 7pm tonight might be a little much. Cal fancies themselves as not just Pac 10 contenders but legit threats to dance in Indy come April. Tonight is a good early glimpse at a team that will not get many more national litmus tests before March.
Maniac's Pick: Cal -1.5 and they cover easily.

South Florida -1 @ Davidson - Um, will someone please tell Vegas that Steph Curry is no longer attending school at Davidson? Did anyone watch this team last year? They were awful. I mean, they were third in the SoCon with Steph. USF is by no means ready to compete in the BEast, but they are certainly athletic enough to easily handle the Wildcats, even on the road.
Maniac's Pick: USF -1

Long Beach St. @ Notre Dame -15 - Luke Hanangody's mission and outgoing gift to Irish fans is a return to the NCAA tourney. The early loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin hurts the Irish's depth, but Harangody alone is enough to put the Irish back into the top half of a less-than-stellar Big East. Of course, their cream puff loaded schedule won't prepare them for it, but for now, enjoy the gaudy record and comfy wins Irish fans.

(Maniac note: unless UCLA gets rolling, the Irish will not face a ranked foe until a Jan 2nd tilt with UConn - EARLY PREDICTION, Notre Dame goes 9-9 or 8-10 in conference, but has 20+ wins because of the fluff they played early and experts rage over IF and WHERE the Irish belong in the tourney field. They better beat at least two of the following: you know what forget it, this deserves it's own column...)

Maniac's Pick: Notre Dame -15

Luke plans on clapping well into the Big Dance in his senior season


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Wednesday's Fearless Picks

After a 3-2-1 start to the season (though the Maniac contends that Sherron Collins' extended absence made for a do-over...) we're back for some more bankable predictions.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

Butler -5 @ Northwestern: The Maniac loves Northwestern. I'd love nothing more than to see the only BCS conference school to never appear in the Big Dance end that streak. However Kevin Coble's season ending injury is way to much to overcome in a loaded Big Ten, and way to much to overcome in a virtual season opener against a talented, experienced, and unlike many top teams who fumbled this week; comfortable playing together.

I think this is a lock. Lay the points, take the Bulldogs big.

Toledo +22 @ Cincinnati - The Cats will contend for a NCAA berth in the less-than-balanced BEast. However there is still a lot of feeling out to do between big man Yancy Gates and incoming frosh sensation Lance Stevenson. Some of that will be evident on the court tonight.

Cornell -3 @ UMASS - Cornell is fresh off an "upset" win over Alabama. UMass got beat by 18 at UCF. Both games are more telling than many opening season tilts. The Red can play and the Minute Men are still in the 15 year post-Calipari probation malaise.

Western Carolina @ Texas -24 - The Longhorns are the best team in the country and the Maniac's preseason #1. Not sure how or why this line is this close, it feels like a 34-37 pointer to me...

Season Record: 3-2-1


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puerto rico tipoff

This year Puerto Rico has assembled an interesting and deep field, with only George Mason and Boston U. being clearly outclassed, though the Patriots do bring mid-major name cache' to the party.

The best game of the entire 3-day tourney might be the very first to tip as Dayton squares off against what should be a vastly improved Georgia Tech squad. How high are people on the Jackets and freshman standout Derrick Favors? Consider that the Jackets were 13-19 last season, yet enter the game ranked #21 in the country. And for good reason. Add in Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert and Paul Hewitt might have his best team on campus since 2002.

Dayton is an experience-laden team poised to build on last year's NCAA tournament opening round win. Tabbed as the early season favorite in the A-10, and ranked #18 the Flyers have a chance on (early) national TV to rack up an huge early resume win for the profile.

This is a hard one to pick, but I'll take the Flyers experience over the Jackets promise in an exciting preview of two teams who hope to be playing well into March.

The second game features an interesting Villanova team which should be in mix for the Big East title all year against a down George Mason squad. Look for Villanova to cruise with relative ease.

The 5pm tilt is one that I'm way more excited for than the rankings and RPI's would merit. Ole Miss quietly has one of the best backcourts in the SEC with Warren and Terrico White. IU is in year two of the Tom Crean reclamation project and should make some substantial strides. It may not happen tomorrow, but write it down, Indiana will NOT finish eleventh in the Big Ten this year. I guarantee it.

The night cap gives an early look at Kansas State's Wally Judge who played sparingly in the Wildcats' first two contests. Kansas State has their sights set on improving on last year's NIT appearance. Picking up a few wins in Puerto Rico would go a long way toward that aim.

Games:
11:30 am - Dayton v. GA Tech
2:00 pm - George Mason v. Villanova
5:00 pm - Indiana v Mississippi
7:30 pm - Boston U v. Kansas State

Picks: Dayton, Villanova, Ole Miss and K-State, with Dayton beating Ole Miss in the Final.
(although I wouldn't be stunned if GA Tech beats the Flyers in the opener...)

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Quick Guide to Tipoff Tourneys - Maui

For me, it is simply a wonderful time for College Hoops; the smorgasboard of early season tournaments. It is a great chance to see the nation's elite teams retreat from the comfort of home and match up against other elite powers.

This year seems to have brought more marquee matchups than ever as Puerto Rico, Orlando, Cancun amd the Virgin Islands bring solid fields to join the usuals in Maui and New York.

Maui Invitational: Nov 23-25th

A field loaded with good, not great teams kicks off with a quadruple header on ESPN. Ned a reason to watch? 5 of the 8 teams have legit "bubble" written all over them and some would lump Gonzaga in as the 6th.

12:30 Colorado v. Gonzaga, followed by Cincinnati v. Vanderbilt
7 PM: Maryland v. Chaminade followed by Wisconsin v. Arizona

Nov 24th: 7PM: Md/Cham v. UC/Vandy, 9:30PM Gonz/Colo. v. Wisc/AZ

Nov 25th: Afernoon, 5th-8th, 7PM Consolation, 9:30 Championship

Maniac's Picks: Maryland over Cincinnati & Gonzaga over Wisconsin, Maryland cutting down the nets, Cincinnati winning the consolation game in a style-contrasting battle with Bo's Badgers.




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Wall to Wall Hysteria

Relax Big Blue.

Inhale.

Exhale.

Relax.

It is neither the second coming, nor a 2012-like disaster (not the preciction, the movie...was the script for National Treasure 3 just not finished yet??)

Kentucky faithful, and there are many faithful, split in two chaotic directions today. The first camp, proclaiming John Wall the national player of the year after hitting the game winning shot last night in his first game as a Wildcat. And the other camp, those panicking because a game winning shot was necessary in Rupp again the Redhawks of Miami (OH).

Wall is good. He is real real good. Like lottery pick good. But he made a bevy of freshman mistakes last night, turnovers, over penetrating, leaving his feet to pass only to be bailed out by UK's superior athleticism. Give him a few weeks to settle in, but last night was nowhere close to a POY performance.

Give the Cats a few weeks too. With only Patterson a big time returning contributer there is still a huge feeling out process for the Cats while everyone discovers their role and place in Calipari's dribble drive offense.

For one night, let the demons of VMI sleep along with the rooftop of banners.

It is going to be one heck of an exciting season in the Bluegrass. Hopefully Cat fans can relax long enough to enjoy the frantic ride.



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Big Tuesday Slate

A big day of college hoops and a first real look at a couple national title contenders:

8PM: Gonzaga @ Michigan State

The Zags mantra of anyone, anytime takes living form tonight as they essentially "open" their season at #2 Sparty. State returns All-American PG Kalin Lucas and a healthy supporting cast. The Zags lost a ton, including leading scorers Jeremy Pargo, Josh Heytvelt and budding star Austin Daye (who made a huge mistake leaving early...but that's another column. William Avery thinks he needed more college for crying out loud...)

That said, two things remain consistent in East Lansing. Izzo's clubs will fight you for 40 minutes, and they are always better in March than they are in November. I think they win tonight, but that Boldin and Co. keep the Zags hanging around long into the second half.
Maniac's Pick: Gonzaga +11

10 PM: Memphis @ #1 Kansas


The Tigers are in an interestingly unfamiliar position in 09-10, the hunter rather than the hunted. The rematch of the title game from two years ago bears absolutly zero resemblance. Only two "real" contributors remain (both Aldrich and Collins played supporting roles for the Jayhawks). However this Jayhawk squad might actually be more talented than the group that cut down the nets 20 months ago.

Memphis is not only unranked, most pundits have them second in a less-than-stellar C-USA. (The Maniac disagrees - Memphis wins the league again this year). Gone is Calipari. So too the bevy of NBA caliber recruits. In comes Josh Pastner, a 31 year old baby-faced rookie coach. The Tigers will be different in 09, but don't sleep on the athleticism of this club. Early in the season when teams struggle with shot selection and finding fluidity in their offenses, defense tends to rule.

The addition of Xavier Henry makes Kansas an early season title fave.

Memphis is better than most expect and could very likely be a first round favorite come March. However they won't be tonight. Expect an experienced Jayhawk squad to force a ton of turnovers and bad shots from the young Tigers and win with relative ease in a game that will look more impressive in March than it does tonight.
Maniac's Pick: Kansas -9.5

Other Game of Note:

Duquesne @ Iowa (9PM): To the casual fan, this is another early season patsy...and it might be. Only for the Dukes rather than the Hawkeyes. Iowa will be a punching bag in the loaded Big Ten this year. Get used to it Hawkeye fans. A loss at home tonight to the A-10 sleeper Duquesne is a tougher-than-advertised way to start
Maniac's Pick: Duquesne -2

Other Picks:
Georgetown -8 over Temple
Duke -17 over Charlotte
Iowa State -1 over Drake


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