Can Penn State Make the Tourney?

Penn State struck again today.  This time the victim was #15 Wisconsin.  It is the third time in two weeks the Nittany Lions have knocked off a Top 25 opponent.  The question after the first upset was "how the heck did that happen?"  After the second it was, "can that really happen again?"

After the third, the question is now, "can Penn State actually make the NCAA Tournament?!?"

The answer is short, but not so simple; "probably not."

Even with the win today the Nittany Lions are still only 12-8, 5-4 in Big Ten play.  The dug themselves a pretty deep early hole with losses to Maine (ouch), Mississippi (less bad, but still 'ouch'), and a humiliating 62-39 loss to Maryland.

Taking a look at the Lions remaining schedule, let's assume they need to get to 18 wins (minimum) and then win at least one game in the conference tournament to merit at-large consideration.  That means they need AT LEAST six wins in their remaining contests.

Up next for Penn State is a tough trip to Illinois, followed by a visit from Michigan and a trip to Michigan State.  In all reality if they fail to get two of those three, it is probably curtains for the Nittany Lions.

Let's assume for arguement's sake they do pick up the two wins they need.  They would then need to steal four wins from the following list:  Northwestern, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Ohio State and @Minnesota.  They will likely be underdogs in five of those six games (possibly favored at home against Minnesota but not likely).

It's a very tough road ahead to Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions, but my best bet is they fall about one or two wins short and are left wondering what could have been... they are literally two plays away from being in the midst of a six game winning streak with five wins over ranked opponents.  Ohio State needed a late defensive stop to eek out a three point win at home, and Purdue beat the Lions on a baseline jumper at the buzzer, 63-62.  Win even one of those games, and the situation looks dramatically different.

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Huge Showdown in the Valley - Northern Iowa Visits Missouri State

The following is an excerpt from a column The Maniac writes for TheSporksGeek.com -
Great game tomorrow night if your cable provider is carrying it!

Northern Iowa Panthers @ Missouri State Bears -7

You are forgiven if you don’t know much about the Missouri State Bears.  Most casual fans don’t.  Don’t let that lull you into ignoring one of the nation’s best mid-majors in 2011.  

The Bears enter at 17-4, 9-1 in the competitive Missouri Valley.  They got away with looking ahead in their last contest, escaping with a 73-70 win over Drake.  Don’t expect their focus to be anywhere other than on the Northern Iowa Panthers tomorrow night.

Northern Iowa captured the nation’s fancy with their improbable upset of #1 Kansas en route to the Sweet 16.  This team, however, is not that team; Ali Farokhamensh has gradated, and the Panthers have been good, but certainly not great this season without him.  They enter the game at 16-6 (7-3), but without some of the big wins they captured along the way last season.  

.... check out the rest at thesportsgeek.com

Can You Say "Trap Game"? BYU Falls in The Pit 86-77

It appears even the BYU Fightin' Fredette's are prone to emotional letdowns.

Riding high after their defeat of San Diego State Thursday night, the Cougars got avalanched and swarmed by media, heaping accolades on the Cougars (but mostly on Jimmer).  Today, just 48 hours later, BYU got dropped by New Mexico in an absolute classic trap game.

It's actually a worse loss than it sounds.  Yes, The Pit is a historically difficult place to play, but New Mexico really isn't very good this year.  They are a long shot for the NIT barring a turn around (and tonight's win is a decent jump start) and have virtually no chance of earning an at-large tourney bid. To make matters worse, San Diego State went into The Pit two weeks ago and emerged unscathed.

Jimmer is still the clubhouse leader for the Naismith Award, and even in a losing effort the nation's scorer didn't disappoint, dropping in 32 points on a respectable 12 of 26 shooting.  However any talk of BYU earninga #1 seed is effectively finished with today's loss, and even a #2 seems hopefully optimistic.

Up next for the Jimmer's is a trip to Wyoming followed by next weekend's visit from UNLV in a huge game for the Runnin' Rebs NCAA hopes.

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Big Results in the Big Twelve

Nebraska wanted to make sure everyone knew they planned on contending for an NCAA Tournament bid.  Beating Texas A&M today 57-48 should accomplish that mission pretty well.

With the win, the Huskers move to 15-5 (3-3), while Texas A&M fell to 17-3 (4-2).  Nebraska is still perched on the wrong side of the bubble, but are certainly in the mix with Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Colorado - all jostling for position in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.  Depending on how things unfold anywhere from two to four of those teams could find themselves dancing in March.

My gut feel, based on the lack of many compelling mid-major cases building and the strong argument for the Big Twelve as the best conference in the country, I think the conference earns six bids, meaning three of the above likely get the nod.

Dunn's 26 powered Baylor over Colorado.

Baylor certainly hopes and expectto be one of them.  Following last season's Elite Eight run, expectations were high for Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears.  Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udoh are gone, but LaceDariuis Dunn and a fantastic freshman class were in place to continue the Bears' resurgence.  Today's 70-66 victory over Colorado strengthens their case considerably, as well as dealing a tough blow to one of their fellow bubble mates.

Baylor moves to 14-6 (4-3) with the win, while Colorado falls to 14-8 (3-4) with the loss.  Baylor is likely in solid shape for the Tourney, provided they can avoid any more bad losses like last weeks 72-59 loss to Iowa State.  Colorado's path is going to be a lot tougher.  Not only are they likely currently last on the above list of Big Twelve tourney hopefuls, they also are entering a brutal schedule stretch.  After Tuesday's visit from Iowa State the Buffaloes face: @Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, @Kansas.  Anything less than 3-2 over that stretch likely spells the end of Colorado's tourney hopes.

** Tonight's marquee match-up at 9PM: Texas @ Missouri (ESPN2) **


MANIAC'S TOURNEY PROJECTIONS - BIG TWELVE:


LOCKS - Texas, Kansas, Missouri
SHOULD BE IN - Texas A&M, Baylor
POSSIBLE - Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado (I like K-St getting in over the other three who will land softly in the NIT)


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Kemba Unable to "Jimmer" the Cardinals; UConn Loses at Home in Double OT

Kemba Walker had chances to beat Louisville at the buzzer in both regulation and the second overtime.  Both times, like his likely Player of the Year chances, he came up just a little short.

Walker struggled to get clean looks at the bucket most of the afternoon and finished with a respectable, but not impressive, twenty points.  UConn's problem wasn't just that Walker was struggling - it was that even though struggling the offense was nearly 100% on his shoulders.  Walker shot just 7 of 24 from the field, including a dismal 2 of 10 from three point range.

This isn't an article to gloat (though I have written multiple times more than a month ago that this was the inevitable destiny for the Huskies unless they develop another offensive option...), simply to point out that the Big East is completely and bizarrely random this season.  Anyone who thinks they can predict the final standings of this league, feel free to speak up...

Pitino's Cards are once again lookin' good.

Louisville moves into second place in the BEast with the road win over #5 UConn.  For much of the season writers, pollsters, and yours truly doubted the veracity of the Cards record - waiting for the plummet once the competition heated up.  It turns out Preston Knowles, Peyton Siva and Rick Pitino are instead up to the normal Louisville standard and are not just an NCAA Tourney lock, they are right in the mix for a Top 4 seed.

The same can be said for about half of the Big East.  Georgetown picked up a HUGE road win today at Villanova (and hosts Louisville Monday night!), and Marquette has a double digit lead on Syracuse early in the second half.

It is truly anybody's conference to win and luckily for us hoops fans, it is going to be an absolutely thrilling and frenetic final five weeks of conference play.

UP NEXT:

LOUISVILLE:   @Georgetown, DePaul, @Notre Dame, Syracuse

UCONN:  Syracuse, @Seton Hall, @St John's, Providence

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Xavier "Tu" Much for Richmond

Very quietly Xavier is erasing their slow start and easing into "tourney lock" status.  Today's 85-62 win at Richmond gives the Muskies a two game cushion over the Spiders and Temple Owls, plus they have already earned head-to-head wins over both.

Junior Tu Holloway, the nation's sixth leading scorer, continued his A10 Player of the Year campaign by scoring a career high 33 points, including a sure-fire highlight when he inbounded the ball off the unsuspecting backside of a Richmond player and picked up the carom and laid the ball in the basket for a thrilling halftime buzzer beater.  His continued excellent play doesn't get a ton of national attention, but he is certainly in the mix for second or third team All-American status.

More importantly Holloway and backcourt-mate Mark Lyons showed the poise and steady ballhandling that made it not only impossible, but foolilsh to try to press the Muskies.  They were able to break the pressure with ease all afternoon.  Then on the defensive end, both helped spearhead the 1-2-2 zone that stymied Richmond for the second consecutive year.

With the win Xavier moved to 15-5 (7-0), and remains in a first place tie with the surprising Duquesne Dukes.  For Richmond, their bubble-status gets even dicier with the loss and puts some real pressure on the Spiders to avoid many more missteps if they hope to earn a repeat trip to the Big Dance. Their next four games are all should-wins that have now become must-wins for Richmond.

UP NEXT:

XAVIER: @Charlotte, St. Louis, @Georgia

RICHMOND: St. Joeseph's, @Fordham, @George Washington

Conference Domination - Four Low-Majors Who Could Steal Some Bids

The term "mid-major" is overused, and generally used incorrectly.  A "mid" major would be someone from a conference that has enough quality teams that multiple bids are a possibility and more than a handful of the teams in that conference don't require providing a map to casual fans to determine what state the schools are in.

The Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Mountain West, Colonial - and to some extent the WCC and Horizon are "mid-majors."  The four teams we're taking a look at are really "low-majors."  However, the way some of the teams below are tearing through their conferences, some of the big boys better hope these little guys win their conference tournament (and the accompanying automatic bid that comes with it) or the at-large pool could shrink.

UTAH STATE (WAC) - 19-2 (8-0)
OAKLAND (Summit) - 15-8 (10-0)
COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) - 19-2 (10-0)
BELMONT (Atlantic Sun) - 18-4 (10-1)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Sun Belt) - 16-6 (8-0)

Familiar Faces in Unfamiliar Places

Over the past ten or fifteen years there have been a few things relatively automatic when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  Someone seeded #13 or higher will capture the nation's fancy by delivering the miracle moment that has made the NCAA Tournament (along with gambling in office pools) the magical nation-captivating event it is.  Two or three teams and coaches (see: Seth Greenberg, Jim Boeheim) will whine about the unjustness of their snub from the field.  And Michigan State, Gonzaga and Butler will be somewhere in the Field of 64 (or 65).

The first two are still almost givens.  The last?  Difficult as it may be to process, is far from a given this season

Michigan State is reaching the time of the season when Coach Izzo traditionally begins circling the wagons and gear his Spartans up for their magical run at the Final Four.  After last night's stunning home loss to Michigan, the Spartans are in real jeopardy of being excluded from the field all together.  Their schedule has been as brutal as always; with four preconference losses to Connecticut, @Duke, @Syracuse and Texas.  Not only are those not bad losses, it wouldn't be surprising if those four teams comprised the Final Four.

Sparty's recent losses to Penn State and Michigan are the cause for pause.  The Spartans record is now just 12-8 and 4-4 in Big Ten play.  They still have trips remaining to Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin and visits from Purdue and Ohio State.  For arguements sake, let's say they beat all the teams they are supposed to, and fail to win more than one or two of the aforementioned tricky games.  That would leave the Spartans at 17-13 or 18-12.  If they were to lose the opener in the Big Ten tourney, their spot on the bubble would be quite a precarious one.

Gonzaga and Butler also have a hill to climb over the next four weeks if they plan on continuing their "major conference" reputations, despite playing in mid-major leagues. 

Last night Mickey McConnell's buzzer beating runner gave St. Mary's their first win in Spokane in fifteen years.  The loss dropped Gonzaga to just 13-8 and a surprising 3-3 in the WCC.  St. Mary's now leads the Zags by three full games in the conference and all but ended Gonzaga''s decade-long stranglehold on the conference crown.  The Zags should go no worse than 8-2 down the stretch which would have them at 21-10, and likely safe.  However there is little room for another "bad loss" like the one they surrended to San Fransisco earlier this week.  February 5th's visit from Memphis will be absolutely enormous for both teams in their fight to make the tourney.

It's a very similar situation for Butler.  They got a little help when Valpo suffered a surprising loss to drop to 7-2, pulling Butler one game back in the loss column, behind Valpo and Cleveland State.  Butler, like the Zags played a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have quality losses to Xavier, Duke and Louisville.  Those don't hurt too badly.  However conferences losses to Wright State and being swept by middle of the pack Milwaukee shrinks the Bulldogs remaining margin for error.

My gut feel is that all three make the tourney, but it is going to be a very interesting, and nerve-racking final month of the season for all three.

"Jimmer" is a Verb Meaning "To Score Relentlessly in Massive Quantities"

And then there was one.

Ohio State stands alone as the nation's only unbeaten team after Jimmer Fredette and the Jimmer Fredettes, er, BYU Cougars, handed San Diego State their first loss of the season 71-58.

Fredette all but solidified his First Team All-American status tonight and joined Kemba Walker and Jared Sullinger as the front runners for National POY, pouring in 43 points and absolutely dominating the Aztecs in arguably the best individual performance this season. As if his play on the floor wasn't enough, in a courtside interview after the game Fredette displayed the humility and team-first attitude that have endeared him to not just BYU fans, but fans all across the country.  It is honestly impossible not to love this guy.

Watching the tape from tonight's game, the first comparisons of recent college players that come to mind are Steph Curry and JJ Reddick.  They aren't perfect comparisons as there are subtle differences in their respective games.  Curry, when facing superiorly athletic teams tended to force shots and struggle handling the ball against constant double teams.  At times he scored at will, but in his junior year against teams like Duke and Purdue Curry clearly struggled without a reliable scoring option along side him to relieve pressure.

The main difference between Fredette and Reddick is the amount of time Fredette spends as BYU's primary ball handler.  Reddick was superior using screens and getting quality shots with accuracy and an exceptionally quick release.  Both players possess a keen ability to create their own shots by taking an aggressive dribble towards the basket and popping back to create the small window of space needed to get off a good look.  However, in general Reddick was more of a shooter running off screens constantly, a la Reggie Miller or Ray Allen, where Jimmer is more prone to taking the dribble all the way to the bucket and using his body to shield off bigger defenders and absorbing the contact.

As far as Dave Rose and his BYU teammates are concerned; Jimmer is incomparable.  San Diego State clearly had no answer for Fredette tonight as he pumped in a surprisingly NON season high 43 points on a blistering 14 of 24 shooting (that includes a perplexing missed goal-tending call as well).

If BYU and Fredette have aspirations of making it to the Final Four, they are going to face some teams with the quickness and length to make things much more difficult for Fredette.  A team like Duke with Nolan Smith or Ohio State's David Lighty, or even Texas with a stable of long, athletic wing players could pose a whole different set of challenges.

It's going to take a concerted team effort to corral the nation's best scorer.

Watching the game tonight, here is a quick Maniac scouting report of how to (attempt) to corral Jimmer:

1.  No switching on screens.  San Diego State did what is typically logical when defending a great scorer, and that is to frequently switch on ball screens.  However, Fredette was smartly able to exploit this by taking advantage of the quickness mismatch when a taller defender switched onto him.  Fredette is excellent at the "step-back" dribble to create just enough room for his lightning quick release to get a clean 3-point shot up.  Add in the fact that his range is legitimately anywhere inside 28 to 30 feet, and this creates a problem.

What needs to be done is to hedge high on ball screens; push him laterally and turn him away from the basket and allow the primary defender time to retreat back to Fredette.  No going under screens or switching or he will kill you.

2.  Face guard him AFTER he passes.  SDSU did a good job of forcing Fredette to pass many times.  However, nearly every single time he passed the ball he was able to run off a quick down screen or rub his defender free and get the ball right back as soon as he wanted.  After he passes it is imperitive to "jump" the cutter.  Basically bump him off his route like an NFL defensive back and force him to hand fight and run around frantically to get the ball back.

This is very frustrating for scorers and can get him off his rythym - as well as cause some frustration with the difficulty to even get the ball back in his hands.  He frequently begins the possession with the ball as he usually dribbles it up the court.  That makes it difficult to keep him from touching the ball, however there are ample opportunities to prevent him from getting it back - SDSU did a poor job of this tonight.

3.  Bring help to the on-ball defender "higher" on the court.  This doesn't mean "switch", rather it means turn all screens into double teams.  If I'm coaching against the Cougs, I'd gladly take my chances with someone, anyone else beating me.  If his teammates can get 35-40 points by knocking down open shots that present themselves with the constant double teaming on Fredette, so be it.

Fredette has a tendency to leave his feet to pass, which is what led to many of BYU's turnovers tonight (the only real weakness I saw in his game).  Constant double teaming 'higher' up on the court (i.e. - anywhere from 22 feet in, not just when he penetrates beneath the foul line extended) will force some turnovers and make it difficult for Fredette to create mid-range looks at the bucket.

Of course, all these things are easier said than done.  Take nothing away from Fredette's effort tonight; it was simply spectacular.  But don't be surprised if an athletic team from one of the BCS conferences makes the three above adjustments and knocks off the Cougars early than expected in the NCAA Tourney in a #7 over  #2 or a #6 / #3 'upset'.

I don't generally do scouting report columns, I know it is tough reading for you non-dork fans - but for my hardcore readers, I wanted to give you what I saw from watching tonight's game.  Any insights, opinions, etc. you gleamed from tonight's thriller are always welcome!  Post below, or send comments to chrisscheeren@yahoo.com

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Villanova Stunned - Providence Notches Second Striaght Upset Win

After starting Big East play 0-6, the Providence Friars looked to be easy fodder for the top half of the league to fatten up on in their quest to score a NCAA-record ten tournament bids.  Someone forgot to tell the Friars.

Brooks has the Friars reaching farther than expected.

Providence followed up their upset win over Louisville last weekend with a stunning 83-68 over #8 Villanova.  Marshon Brooks led the Friars with 20 points, following up his 27 point performance over Louisville with another clutch performance.

The win marks the first time in 12 years Providence has notched back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams, and more importantly shakes up the already-chaotic Big East yet again.  Things appeared to be settling into the normal caste system that marks most elite conferences.  Villanova was in the ruling class; Providence the serfs.  The last four days things have been flipped upside down; in addition to Providence, both Seton Hall and Notre Dame knocked off two other Top 10 teams in Syracuse and Pitt respectively. 

Providence will look to keep their resent surge going Sunday at Seton Hall while 'Nova looks to get back on track with a tough visit from Georgetown Saturday afternoon.

For a detailed Big East Mid-Season Breakdown, check MarchManiacs.com Thursday Edition.

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Something Old and Something New - Xavier, Duquesne Remain Perfect in A-10 Play

For Xavier, it's business as usual.  Despite some early season non-conference struggles the Muskies are off to a perfect 6-0 start in Atlantic Ten play and look to be on pretty safe footing for earning their tenth trip to the NCAA Tournament in eleven seasons.

Junior point guard Tu Holloway has been the steadying influence all season, meriting All-American consideration averaging 20.4 ppg and 5.4 assists.  Tonight he got a little help from his teammates, namely Mark Lyons who, like Holloway, scored 22 points in the Muskies 81-74 home win over George Washington.

The win pulls Xavier to 14-5, and a perfect 6-0 in Atlantic Ten play - good for a first place tie atop the standings.

Their fellow leader?  It's not Richmond or Temple, both of whom expect to make a repeat appearance to the tournament this season.  It isn't Dayton who returns their three top players from last year's NIT Championship team either.  Rather it is the Duquesne Dukes taking the A-10 by surprise, making a true push to earn their first Tournament appearance in thirty five years. To go back to the last time the Dukes actually won an NCAA Tournament game you'd have to search all the way back to the 1968-1969 season.

They won only one game in the 1969 tourney, yet made it to the yet-to-be-named "Sweet Sixteen."  How is this possible you ask??  Because back then they were 25 teams invited to the tourney, all seeded and bracketed strictly by their geography.  There was no shuffling of locations to make sure teams were seeded fairly by ability and record.  If you were in the West and the second best team in the country, suck for you, because you're gonna see UCLA in the opening weekend!

So, yeah, it's been a little while for Duquesne...

After tonight's 91-72 win over Fordham Duquesne extended their winning streak to nine games, the school's longest in more than three decades.  It is also their best start in conference play since joining the Atlantic 10 in 1976.  Their unlikely run at the conference crown is a storyline even the most jaded fan can't help but pull for. Beyond just the rather pedestrian history of Duquesne basketball, it is really the first time Duquesne has garned basketball headlines rather than the sordid and tragic headline revolving around the shooting incident in 2006. (If you are not familiar, google it if you choose - I'm going to keep it on-the-court related for today).

More impressive than the Dukes 14-5 (6-0) record and their winning streak is the manner in which they are carving up one of the country's best non-BCS conferences.  Their narrowest margin came in their first conference game, a 75-63 win at St. Joe's.  Since then, they have won by an average of 17.2 points per contest - including the eye-opening 78-66 win last weekend over Temple.

Duquesne has yet to travel to any of the conference's elite teams and have a fortunate scheduling break in not having to play Xavier or Temple on the road.  However, they will have several formidable tests before the season is over.  Sunday's visit from Dayton will be an excellent test - pass that on and the Xavier game on February 13th becomes absolutely enormous.

The Dukes still have a lot of work to do before getting into the Tourney, but it is a team and a feel-good story worth watching over the next month and a half.

UP NEXT:  
Xavier - @Richmond, @Charlotte, St. Louis    
Duquesne - Dayton, George Washington, @St. Bonaventure

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San Diego State v. BYU - 10PM on CBS Sports Network

Here's a few helpful links to get you prepped for tonight's HUGE Mountain West game.  Let's hope it lives up to the hype better than the league's football "can't miss" game between TCU and Utah back in November!

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/preview?gid=201101260068

Good story featuring Jimmer Fredette (who you know) and D.J. Gay, point guard of San Diego State (who you might not...)

http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/Showdown-features-top-guards-in-Fredette-Gay-44098380

Maniac's Pick tonight - San Diego State +5.5 in a thriller

Last Stand for UCF Tonight at Memphis

A funny thing happened on the way to the FedEx Forum.

Tonight was supposed to be a watershed moment for the UCF Basketball program; a night to display their new found excellence and dethrone the reigning standard bearers in their own gym.  Tonight was a night to bring their shiny national ranking and validate it in a game they expected, not hoped, they could win.

Um, yeah.  Not quite how it unfolded.

Losing four games in Conference USA is no shame this year.  This is not the "Memphis and the 13 Dwarfs" of years past.  Right now six teams in C-USA are in the Top 72 in the RPI polls.  It's a solid league from top to near bottom.

The problem for UCF?  Losing four in a row.  Including two at home. Badly and embarrassingly.  Suffice it to say that East Carolina and Rice are not two of the aforementioned six.  The performance has dropped the Knights all the way down to last place in the league with a trip to big bad Memphis no longer a coronation but instead a hopefully valiant last stand.

Do the Knights have a shot tonight against Josh Pastner's Tigers?  Sure, but not a good one.  Memphis isn't the team they were in years past, but let's face it, UCF isn't the team Knights fans wanted to believe they were either.  The Knights enter tonight as a prohibitive underdog, a disappointing, albeit more familiar role.

It's been that kind of two weeks for UCF.

The good news is it's a role the Knights play well.  They had no trouble riding the emotional crest of over-achievement.  It was the games they were supposed to win that proved troublesome.

Tonight, the swell of attention and congratulations has long faded and UCF gets its chance to once again play David to Memphis's ever-looming Goliath.  For UCF's sake, lets hope the Knights remember what it is like to fight windmills without dwelling on all that was lost in the past two weeks' stumbles.

Yes, tonight UCF once again gets their chance to attempt the impossible.  But unfortunately, no matter how the game finishes, even an impossible victory will feel a little disappointing contrasted against the possible of just a few weeks ago...

What's Goin' Wrong for the Orange?

The first loss at Pitt was almost expected.  If anything, the Orange gained respect with the valor in which they faught their way back and almost knocked off Pitt at the Petersen Center.  The following weekend's second loss to Villanova is one you'd like to win at home - but not the end of the world.

As of the time of this writing Syracuse is down 19 with 7:00 to play, at home, against SETON HALL.

Looks like someone needs a hug!

This will be the 'Cuse third straight loss - and real cause for panic with trips to UConn and to Marquette coming up next.  Could a five-game losing streak really be a possibility??  It's hard to believe as good as Syracuse looked two weeks ago beating Notre Dame handily, then going on the road and taking down St. John's and Cincinnati - but that's exactly what the Orange are staring down.

Tonight's stunner, in the wake of a few other surprises (Notre Dame winning at Pitt, Providence beating Louisville) really shakes up the way the Big East race looks.  My personal take was a three-tier system at the top:  Pitt, Syracuse and Villanova in Tier #1, Notre Dame, UConn and Georgetown in Tier #2, and Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia and St. John's in the third tier.  Seton Hall (3-5 with tonight's win) was nowhere on the radar.  Neither is Providence (1-6) who beat Louisville this weekend.

My faithful tiers are a mess, and so is the Big East.  For a league with eleven teams in contention for a bid (maybe twelve if you put any faith in a miracle Seton Hall run), in order for nine or even ten to get bids - the big boys HAVE to knock off the bottom feeders every single time.

Things are going to get REAL interesting the rest of the way.

Check back Thursday for the Maniac's Mid-Season Conference Review of the Big East - it's going to be an interesting one...

Atlantic Ten Showdown in Dayton as Richmond Looks to Steal Road Win

I've decided to queue the Atlantic 10 update until tomorrow (or late tonight) to allow tonight's Richmond v. Dayton game to unfold.

The reason being, tonight's game is absolutely enormous in shaping the destiny and "to-do list" for each of the teams in regards to earning a ticket to the Dance.

Richmond, on paper, seemed to be the slight favorite about a month before heading into conference play - narrowly edging out Temple, well ahead of Dayton and Xavier with Duquesne nowhere on the radar.  Just a short month later, it's the Spiders who find themselves in the tangled web of bubble-dwelling status, having balanced their wins over VCU, Seton Hall and Purdue with equally bad losses to Bucknell and Georgia Tech.

Dayton entered this season with similarly high hopes, fresh off last season's NIT Championship, and returning their electric scoring combo guard, Chris Wright.  However the Flyers, despite having the same record as RIchmond find themselves well on the outside of the bubble.  They lack a true quality win (Seton Hall, George Mason and New Mexico are their three best wins), and each time they have faced a top-level opponent they have gotten embarassed.  Their early season 68-34 drubbing by Cincinnati the most jarring.

A win tonight at home would solve two of Dayton's big problems; they'd earn a quality win and they'd remain in the A-10 regular season race.  The conference, as good as it is, will not be sending their fifth or sixth place teams to the tourney as at-large bid recipients.  Particularly if they are as devoid of a marquee win as are the Flyers.

Tonight's game is huge in the jostling for position that will take place the next six weeks.  Richmond, at 4-1, enters trailing only Xavier and Duquesne (5-0), with opportunities to play both at home without having to go on the road to return the favor.  As long as they remain close, you have to like the Spiders' odds.

Dayton on the other hand has already lost to Xavier, and still has a home & home with Duquesne remaining.  They will control their destiny somewhat, but falling to 3-3 and two full games behind the Spiders (plus losing the tie breaker) will likely be too much to overcome.

I honestly think both of these teams are NCAA-quality; certainly as much as any third place team from the ACC or Pac 10, however hostory shows us no more than three A-10 schools are dancing, no matter how rosy Lunardi's outlook appears in early February (he had SIX going last year...ooops).

I like Dayton at home tonight, earning a win that makes this conference one of the nation's most interesting in the final five weeks of the season - every bit as clogged at the top as the Big Ten and Big 12, only with a lot more on the line, because all five or six WON'T be getting to the Tourney.

Maniac's Pick:  Dayton -2

Dayton is going to need a big performance from the team, and their home crowd.

Quick Link to Today's Picks

Quick link to today's picks.

Entering today the Maniac is 37-17-2 against the spread.

www.thesportsgeek.com

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Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...