Three Reasons to Stay Up Late

Lest we be accused of an East Coast bias, I wanted to chime in with a quick update on a few games that have significant impact on the tourney landscape taking place out on the left coast.  If you need a reason to stay up until two o'clock tonight, I might be able to help you out.

The Pac-10 is a mess.  We've all heard that story.  It's not an unreasonable one, but it is getting a tad played out, and perhaps even a little overplayed.  Two games tonight can either contribute to the mess or forge two "contenders" for at-large selections (albeit one a bit of a reach)

Cal travels to USC tonight in a game that looked a lot better four weeks ago.  Since USC placed themselves on probation, low and behold, they kids just don't seem to be playing with the same intensity.  I wonder why?  Just because their once promising season has been crushed, along with their dreams of playing in the tourney murdered all because of what their old coach did regarding a player two years removed from the program?  That's no reason not to give the Old U your best effort...

(Picture total non-sequiter - just my running homage' to USC's AD "OJ'ing" the basketball season...)

Sarcasm aside, and my obvious slanted viewpoint, tonight is a big game for Cal.  A road win tonight in LA gets them to 7-3 in the Pac-10.  Despite the perception hit they took early, their overall profile is still in line to ercieve an at large bid if they can avoid another two or three losses.

The other game pits a bit of a role-reversal from how the season was supposed to unfold.  Washington came in to the season as the co-favorite, along with Cal.  It's been a dissapointing season to say the least.  Tonight they get a visit from suddenly-solid Arizona, who is tied atop the league with Cal.  Arizona's record is pretty brutal, but if they could string together four or five wins (just like last year), they would likely find the nation's longest NCAA tourney appearance streak granted another narrow reprieve.

In the WCC, Portland heads to Gonzaga.  Remember Portland?  We loved them.  We didn't love them  We completely forgot they existed.  Well, while we were sleeping the Pilots seemed to find their course.  They are 5-2 in league play, with their only losses coming to the Zags (by 3) and at St. Mary's (by 5).  If they can get a win tonight at the Kennel, admittedly easier said than done, they'd pull even with the Zags and both would trail St. Mary's by just a game in WCC play.  The Pilots chance to dance as an at-large flew away long ago, but a win tonight keeps them in the thick of things for the WCC crown.

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Oh It Hurts...

It really hurts to write this, but just wanted to point out that if some how USF can pull off the road upset tonight at Georgetown they would move to 5-5 in conference and have to be considered ahead of Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall... meaning they would be IN the Field of 65.

Yuck.

In related Florida-hoops news, Michael Jordan's kid plays at UCF....

Dammit.

 

 All kidding aside, when Gilchrist gets back, this is a legit fringe bubble team.

Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

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Bo Knows Whoopin' Sparty

If only not for my vain need to flaunt convention and be oh-so-super smart, a perfect night of picks was in hand...ah to sleep perchance to dream (quote is from Role Models, not Shakespeare...losers).

Forget the three wins (you're welcome).  Let's talk about the one that got away.

First off, is there anything more predictable than watching Wisconsin make a "better" team look utterly and completely clueless in the Kohl Center?  First Duke, then Purdue, now red-hot Michigan State have all felt Bucky's sting when entering his damn; er, dam.  So, what did we learn about each team from tonight's game?

Strangely enough, very little.  I have gotten to the point where I just throw out road losses to Wisconsin.  It doesn't make Purdue or Michigan State any less capable of getting to Indy in April.  It doesn't eliminate Duke as a Final Four contender.  No, the latter was done by Georgetown sending a huge 'flashback to last march' reminder that the Devils still have a devil of a time defending athletic, versatile fours.  On the brightside they might have made sophomore Greg Monroe a few extra million dollars this Summer.

Back to Bucky.  One thing I did take away from the game was an interesting post-game comment from Coach Bo Ryan, where he immediately, and nearly completely credited the win and the frequent success against State to his assistant coach.  Erin Andrews looked perpelexed by this answer, but it actually makes a ton of sense.  Michigan State is excellent with creating mismatches and overloads through on the ball screens. It gives their guards room to create off the dribble (especially Kalin Lucas) and forces help to come.  This leads to easy shots.  There is a reason why Michigan seems to have very balanced scoring every season. Wisconsin not only hedged over those screens, in many cases they flat out "jumped the route" to borrow a football term.  All this means is that they simply refused to let the screener get to the ball and get set.  This creates a lack of sync in the offense (which was obvious committing 13 turnovers to Wisconsin's 5), and over-reliance on tough outside shots (often contested, they shot just 22% from 3-point range), and an lack of quality shots, which leads to numbers advantages heading the opposite direction.  In fact, if not for Michigan States superior athleticism on the glass (11 offensive rebounds) the result would have been even worse.

The synopsis of a long answer: coaching matters, and few in the country do it better than Bo Ryan.  I honestly think a team like Michigan State with the constant ball screening would create sever difficulties in March for a lot of teams far more "talented" than Wisconsin; say Kentucky for example.  Michigan State is one of the best seven or eight teams in the country, no doubt.  So, yes, coaching matters.  And if Bo Ryan says his assistant coach is the best in the country, well, frankly I'm inclined to believe him.

The other thing to take away from this game?  The Big Ten will be fun in February.  Both Ohio State and Purdue benefited tonight, joining Wisconsin at just two games back of Michigan State.  Purdue still plays the Spartans twice, and already took their obligatory Kohl Center loss on the chin.   It will be intersting down the stretch with four good teams slugging it out for the Big Ten title and top seeds in March.

I'm pretty sure Spartan fans know exactly where that fist went tonight...

Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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Bracket Busters 2010

A big thanks to eyeonsportsmedia.com for updating this year's Bracket Buster field.

For those not familiar with the event, 22 teams from Mid-Major conferences are paired up for 11 nationally televised games on ESPN.  It is thought to give programs a chance to gain some national exposure and rack up one more quality win with which to dangle in front of the selection committee.  In my humble opinion, it often backfires by showing a borderline team to be inadequate, and thus NIT-fodder.  But alas, here is this year's field.. Check a seperate column closer to the games for my intrepid picks (and of course who is IN and OUT for March)

Old Dominion (17-5, 9-2 CAA) at #22 Northern Iowa (19-2, 10-1 MVC)
        February 19, 2010, 7:00 PM ESPN2

William & Mary (15-7, 6-4 CAA) at Iona (16-5, 8-3 MAAC)
        February 19, 2010, 9:00 PM ESPNU

Siena (19-4, 12-0 MAAC) at #15 Butler (18-4, 11-0 Horizon)
        February 20, 2010, 11:00 AM ESPN2

Lousiana Tech (18-4, 6-2 WAC) at Northeastern 14-8, 9-2 CAA)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Morgan State (15-7, 7-0 MEAC) at Murray State (20-3, 11-0 Ohio Valley)
       February 20, 2010, Noon ESPNU

Nevada (13-8, 5-3 WAC) at Missouri State (15-7 5-6 MVC)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Akron (13-8, 5-3 Mid-American) at VCU (15-7 5-6 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 4:00 PM ESPNU

Charleston (14-8, 9-2 Southern) at George Mason (15-7, 10-1 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPN2

Western Carolina (17-5, 7-3 Southern) at Kent State (14-7 5-2 Mid-American)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPNU

New Mexico State (13-8, 6-2 WAC) at  Pacific (14-6, 7-1 Big West)
       February 20, 2010, TBD
 

Wichita State (19-4, 8-3 MVC) at Utah State (16-6, 6-2 WAC)
       February 20, 2010, TBD

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Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

Ah, how about a song reference sever score past it's timeliness to kick off the week... yes, the constant striving for headline greatness will never cease here at MarchManiacs baby!

Last year was a top-heavy year in college hoops, with three Goliaths from the BEast claiming top seeds, offset by mighty North Carolina.  One short year later?  The BEast may indeed lay claim to at least two #1 seeds in March, but it certainly won't come from last year's triumvirate of UConn, Louisville and Pitt.  As for UNC?  They are one more bad home loss away from "seeding" being the least of their concerns.  They might be struggling to earn a home game in the Not Invited Tourney...

Two of last year's behemoths clash tonight in what has the look of a back-to-wall classic.  Both Louisville and UConn enter tonight's contest with non-winning conference records and honest to goodness bubble status.  Louisville is desperately devoid of a "quality win", though they came within a bucket (and some controversy) of beating both Pitt and West Virginia in the last two weeks.  UConn has the good win (Texas) and high quality non-conference losses (@ Kentucky, @ Duke), and looked like they were poised to not only make the tourney but be a threat to get out of the first weekend.  A funny thing happened after the upset of Texas (who has major issues themselves these days).  The bottom fell out.  Back to back bad losses; by 13 at Providence and at home to Marquette have left the Huskies at 13-8 (3-5) and desperate for a win tonight.

The winner stacks a major chip in their pile for an at-large bid.  The loser picks up their ninth loss of the year with more than a month of grueling conference games still to play.  That's not a place you want to be on February 1st.

Pitt was supposed to be rebuilding this year.  Then they were supposed to be this dominant force, knocking off conference big shots in their gyms seemingly every week.  This week, clear the deck for the crash landing.  The loss to Georgetown was understandable, particularly on the heels of a game they were very very fortunate to escape with a win over Louisville.  The losses to Seton Hall and South Florida have me rethinking just how firm of footing the Panthers our on for  March.  Road wins over the Cuse, Cincy and UConn go a long way, but their non-conference resume is glaringly bare; a fact that was overlooked during their hot conference start, likely because no one was paying attention to Pitt in December.  At the time, they simply weren't relevant. 

With games this week AT West Virginia and hosting Seton Hall, the Panthers find themselves a few more losses away from being relevant in another discussion; the bubble.

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Moving Up and Moving Out - ACC Edition

Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out".  Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory.  I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC.  I really don't think it is possible at this point.

Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson.  I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night.  I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT.  I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.

The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends.  That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.

Moving Up:

Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference.  Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach.  However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham.  By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.


Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win.  It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.

Virginia - What to make of the Cavs?  I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained.  One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams.  All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play. 

Moving Out:

Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend.  However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200.  Let me repeat that.  TOP 200.  Yuck.


Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit.  Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss.  It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.

North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels?  This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia.  It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do.  It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia.  I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection.  It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.

It is getting real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point.  Will they make the tourney?  It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games.  This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland.  They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.

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Now onto Business

Three weeks ago, your beloved Maniac accuratly charted the course for Northwestern's tourney aspirations.  If you missed it, here it is.  Well, three weeks later they emerged from their murderous stretch 1-4, and surprisingly (or not surprisingly) nearly every media outlet has forgotten all about them.  Not one site even has them on the "bubble radar."

So - if the Wildcats are going to do the never-before-done, NOW is time to grab it.

They start their imminently winnable homestretch tomorrow night with a visit from Michigan.  I don't think it is hyperbole to say the loser of that game is aiming for the NIT.  Then they have a visit from Indiana and a trip to Iowa.  Should the Wildcats emerge 3-0 (as they should) they will sit at 17-7 and in decent shape.

We'll keep you posted, but the Maniac's Take is still that Northwestern scoots into the tourney.

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BIG Red Come up BIG

With apologies to Jeremy Lin and the Crimson of Harvard, the Ivy is not going to be a two bid league.  I'm not sure that it ever was, but in the off-chance the conference snagged a modern-era unprecedented at-large bid it would only have been remotely possible by Cornell.

The Big Red don't appear they'll be needing it.  Cornell grabbed control of the league and their NCAA destiny by throttling Harvard 86-50 in one of the most anticipated Ivy League tilts in years.  The Red were never challenged by what appeared to be their only challenger in conference. Cornell has garnered some national interest after grabbing wins over BCS schools Alabama and St. John's, and nearly shocking the world by hanging with #1 Kansas in Phog until the final seconds.  The "12 seed no one wants to see" is doing their best to be seeded even higher.

It is safe to say that winning Ivy League games doesn't add a ton of strength to the RPI, but running the table in league, coupled with only a narrow loss to Kansas, a loss to Seton Hall and a road loss to Syracuse, certainly adds some validity to your name.  28-3 with only the aforementioned losses seems to wander the Red into the eight to eleven seed range.

While we spend the next month or so debating who falls on what side of the dreaded "bubble", Cornell, barring a bizarre letdown loss, will be safely waiting for their turn to dance with a nervous, nervous partner.

They may not look like great dancers...but I wouldn't want to see them in March

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