This is the precise and exact reason why the humble Maniac can already give you teams that are going to be upset prone and teams that will likely outplay their seed this March. It isn't so much about the stats, but how you execute in situations where the difference between winning and losing is just a few scant possessions.
Some call it coaching, and I agree coaching is part of it, but another big part of it is in your player's DNA. It's in your player's brains. You can't fake cool and you can't fake smart when the bright lights start their One Shining Moment.
This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'. Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play? By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four. It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! This is an excellent example of the AAU-style play that is prevalent this season in the SEC. Poor ball movement, terrible end-game execution, lousy foul shooting and a poor understanding of score and situation.
I can't see any SEC teams making a real run at the Final Four. With the exception of Vandy; all the teams simply play too dumb.
Contrast that with the exceptionally high caliber of basketball currently being played in the Big Ten and Big East. The way Wisconsin and Ohio State both had complete control of score and situation - as well as never missed any clutch free throws, is a hallmark of two teams ready for March. Ditto for Purdue. There aren't many teams in the country I would feel more comfortable coaching than Purdue if I needed a bucket late. Purdue's two-man game of E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson, not just their scoring ability but the senior smarts make them a likely candidate for a deep March run. Purdue's point guard play is a little less solid than their two aforementioned conference mates, but is still a squad with the poise, talent and smarts to make a run to the Final Four.
Is there any conference whose top teams will be more battle-tested than the Big East? Nearly every game is an intense slug-fest between the top eleven (maybe ten, has Cincinnati really challenged many top teams??) teams this season. Pitt and Villanova are two of the toughest teams in the nation. Louisville has shown several occasions that they are capable of late heroics. Georgetown and their spectacular backcourt are exactly what one looks for when filling out their brackets, and I have not seen any team in the country that shares the ball with the unselfishness of Notre Dame.
The Big East will likely have six or seven teams receive Top 4 seeds, and frankly I could see any one of them, with the exception of UConn, making a run to the Final Four.
We will have a nice Monday afternoon Bracketeering Bubble Busting Edition - but for now, here's a quick list of stock up and stock downs from the Maniac's humble vantage point...
Stock Up (March BUYS):Ohio State
Villanova
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
Duke
Georgetown
San Diego State
Stock Down (March SELLS):Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas State
UConn
Minnesota
Florida
Washington
Richmond (if they make it...)
HOLDS (Still getting a final read)
BYU - (Yes, I have Jimmer-mania... but do they have enough help? Can you box & one them and get the upset?)
Texas - (remind me a ton of Memphis 2008-09 - is that good or bad?)
Kansas - (hard not to like them, I've just seen them at their worst - USC, UCLA, Texas...)
Illinois - (McCammey needs to distribute AND score, not just the latter)
Vanderbilt - (smart, balanced - are the strong enough at point?)
Pitt - (can they score enough points?)
Louisville - (they've looked really good...but are they really good?)
North Carolina - (impressive over the last month, do they shoot well enough to advance deep?)
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