Knights Fans Asking "Now What?"

 Orlando, FL -- Jan 20th, 2011

No one expected UCF to finish the season unbeaten.  Heck, no one expected them to enter 2011 unbeaten for that matter.

But they did.  The magnetic smile (and name) of Marcus Jordan attracted the major media outlets to write glowing articles of the blossoming program in Orlando.  ESPN ran highlights of UCF games routinely; just like they would for Duke, Syracuse, Kansas; college basketball's elite programs.

Things were looking brighter than ever for UCF basketball and head coach Donnie Jones.

You know what Knight fans?  They still are.

Ironically, the most telling sign that UCF basketball is begining to gain some relevance is evident not in the early season wins, but in the reaction to the past two weeks dramatic plummet back to earth.  The panicked hand-wringing of frustrated fans signifies the new era in the growth of UCF basketball.

It's no longer a nothing-wagered endeavor to root for the Knights.  In one tantalizing six week stretch fans got their first taste of the instantly-addictive sweetness of following a nationally-relevant program; their beloved Knights were no longer just aiming slingshots at giants - they were having those same slingshots aimed at them.

Last night's loss to East Carolina was certainly not pretty.  It is the kind of game an NCAA Tournament team doesn't lose; a game they can't lose.  Add in the fact it was UCF's third consecutive conference loss dropping them to 1-3, and aside from the trip to Hattiesburg, the schedule hasn't really gotten tough yet, and the concern is certainly merited.

Are the Knights going to the tournament this year?  Most likely not.  Has this season been a seismic step forward, an important first step on the not-so-instant journey to building a respectable program?  Absolutely.

The future is bright for Donnie Jones and the Knights.  Several weeks ago they lured a recruit from under Rick Pitino's powerful grasp when the #4 ranked prep center in the country decommitted from Louisville, spurned Xavier, and instead chose to come to Orlando next season.  It's easily the highest profile true freshman the program has ever signed.  Marcus Jordan and Keith Clanton are only sophmores, and three of the seven best players on their team are in street clothes this season, sitting out the required year after transferring.

UCF is building something special, something consistent and something relevant.  They are close to breaking through that once seemingly distant barrier between "plucky mid-major" and "at-large tournament team."  That kind of evolution doesn't happen over night - even if we might want it to.  A program doesn't go from "never been invited to the NIT" to "earning an at-large NCAA berth" in one season often; and the programs that do are generally buoyed only by one fleeting supernova, a la Davidson and Steph Curry in 2007 and 2008.

For Knight fans throwing their hands up in dispair, welcome to college basketball.  Welcome to the incredible highs that fans in Lexington, Lawrence, Durham and Chapel Hill have known for years.  Welcome also to those same lows.  Gone are the days of Knight fans celebrating only the occasional monumental upset win and sweeping middlingly losses blithely under the rug.  Sorry UCF fans, there is a lot more heartbreak in your future.

And for a fledling program hoping to become a giant, that's the best news possible.



-- Chris Scheeren is the author and publisher of MarchManiacs.com and writes freelance columns for several other publications.  For comments, inquiries, etc, email chrisscheeren@yahoo.com

Wednesday's College Basketball Matchups

Tonight offers up as good a slate of weekday games as we have had thus far in 2010-2011.  Texas hosting Texas A&M at 9pm EST on ESPN is the headliner, but there are more than a few undercards worth checking out as the plot lines and intrigue begin to ramp up to Selection Sunday.

Here's a few of The Maniac's can't miss games:

Memphis @ Southern Miss - I still think both these teams will make the Field of 68, but there is no denying it is going to be tense for any non-automatic qualifiers from Conference USA.  UAB and UCF have shown flashes of potential and will certainly facor in the race, but the two best teams in the league will be on the floor tonight in Hattiesburg.  For Memphis, it is a chance to reassert their conference dominance, and for Southern Miss it is a chance to move to 4-0 in league play with wins over two of their toughest competitors.  Huge game tonight that probably won't be on tv where you live...

James Madison @ Virginia Commonwealth - The Colonial has long been the best conference no one knows about, though VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason's play in the tournament has opened some eyes the past five years.  Going back through George Mason's miracle run in 2006, the CAA has won seven NCAA tournament games.  This is a mid-major conference that can provide some serious players in March.

This year is no exception, however there is a new team introduced into the mix; James Madison.  JMU enters the game at 15-3 (5-1 in the CAA) and in first place, ahead of Mason, VCU, ODU and Drexel.  This is a quality ballclub that would be a just-missed bubble team if the tournament started today.  Capturing a road win tonight would go a long way to bolstering that profile.  Anyone with 23 or 24 wins has earned the benefit of the doubt with the committee, thanks to the history of success from this conference.

St. John's @ Louisville -- Are the Johnnies for real?  No team in the Big East has run more hot and cold than Steve Lavin's crew.  Well, maybe Louisiville... Tonight is a huge game as teams five thru eleven jostle for position in the BEast.

Duquesne @ LaSalle - The Dukes need to guard against a let-down game after thier surprising dismanteling of Temple.  Their instate rivals aren't much to brag about, but it is a classic trap game, and one the Dukes need to avoid if the aspire to win the A-10.

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At 1-3 in the Big Twelve It Might be a Short Season for Jacob Pullen

Last week Kansas State pre-season All-American guard Jacob Pullen said that if the Wildcats were to make the NIT, he "wasn't going to be playing."  If that's the case, Pullen might be about to embark on the final six weeks of collegiate career.

Missouri, who had also stumbled early in conference play, used a relentless offensive attack and precision passing in the transition game, as well as a spectacular effort from freshman point guard Phil Pressey as Missouri sent the Wildcats to their third defeat in four conference tries.  Kansas State fell to 13-6 (1-3) with the loss, and now finds themselves in a very precarious place in regards to even making the NCAA Tournament. 

Things are bleak now, but certaintly not over.  Don't forget there are an extra four bids hanging out there this season as the tourney expands it's field for the first time since 1985.  Frank Martin could wind up being the coach most saved from embarrassment by the addition of the four teams, but the most troubling thing for Wildcat fans is that they haven't even played Texas A&M, Texas or Kansas (twice) yet!

It is going to take a dramatic change of fortune in Manhattan to avoid a catastrophic NIT berth, a Jacob Pullen-less NIT at that, in a season the began with K-State entering with their highest preseason ranking (#3) in school history.  Those high hopes have quickly turned into a big nightmare in the Little Apple.

Up next, the Wildacts continue the gauntlet of Big 12 play with a trip to College Station, a visit from Baylor, and a trip to Lawrence to take on the 18-0 Jayhawks.

Just Another Hard, Physical, Ugly Day in the Big East...and it's Fantastic

Walker has earned those hugs with his heroics

Add Villanova to Kemba Walker's hitlist. 

Last week it was a last-second bucket to beat Texas.  Today?  Same scenario, different opponent as Walker felled #7 Villanova and good buddy Corey Fischer with a runner in the lane with 2.5 seconds remaining.  Villanova was out of timeouts, when Fischer's 40-foot desperation heave went wide, UConn had picked off yet another Top 10 opponent.

Michigan State and Kentucky have since fallen in the polls, but both were ranked in the Top Ten at the time Connecticut clipped them out in Maui.  Not bad for a team picked tenth in their own conference by the coaches.

Kemba Walker continues to put this team on his back, and despite a few forced shots from time to time, is leading this team to victory as much as he is scoring them to wins.  I've said for over a month that Jared Sullinger is my clubhouse leader for National POY, but concede Walker has to be mentioned in the same sentance as Sullinger and Nolan Smith and Jimmer Fredette, and might have emerged today as the leader.

From a team standpoint, today was another huge win for Connecticut as they continue to build a #1 seed-worthy profile in the loaded Big East.  For Villanova, it is just their second loss, and a road loss to UConn certianly does little to damage them, but the win would have been a valuable chip in their respective #1-seed resume building pile.

The excitement keeps going tonight as the BEast's other two top teams, Pitt and Syracuse meet in Pittsburgh tonight at 7:30 (also on ESPN).  The Maniac's official pick for the game is posted on www.thesportsgeek.com - if you'd like to see it.

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Enjoy Rare Treat - Syracuse @ Pitt

Enjoy tonight's fantastic matchup between Syracuse and Pitt, because as hoops fans, we don't get many this good too often.

Given the beleaguered state of the ACC and Pac-10, it's pretty safe to assume they aren't providing us with many Top 5 matchups anytime soon.  Ditto for the SEC.  Yes, the East has five good teams and some fantastic rivalries, but they don't have one, let along two, great teams the caliber of Pitt and Syracuse.

Syracuse enters the game unbeaten and #3 in the country, while Pitt has just the one lone blemish, an early season road loss at enigmatic Tennessee, and enters ranked #4.

The Maniac has landed a column picking some games for a national sports website, and chose to cover this game for tonight's innagural column - so rather than break this game down at length, I'll just paste the link below.

Enjoy today's great slate of games - and thanks again for your continued readership - we are growing by leaps and bounds!


http://www.thesportsgeek.com/news/basketball/college-basketball-picks-and-predictions-january-17th/4985

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Intersting Perspective on Duke's Guards

This article put statistical value behind an observation I've long held in a way that both validates my instinct; and puts to shame my researching capabilities (or desires... this is thorough).

Anyhow - no way to isolate just Duke's portion, so linking the whole article.  Duke is #3 in the poll, if you're in a hurry...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/01/13/power.rankings/index.html

enjoy.

The Penn is Almost Mightier

Penn State failed to knock off their third consecutive ranked opponent, getting bested 69-66 by the undefeated and likely new #1, Ohio State Buckeyes, but the Nittany Lions have defintely opened some eyes in Big Ten country.

Penn State fell to 10-7 overall, 3-3 in Big Ten play, and have very little chance of playing in the post-season, however they are serving as a clear indication of just how deep and competitive the Big Ten is in the final year before becoming the twelve-team "Big Ten."

Battle has kept PSU surprisingly competitive

Senior Talor Battle has been valiant, averaging a conference best 20.9 ppg, despite the intense focus he attracts from every opponent they face. In a conference with Jared Sullinger, David Lighty, Demetri McCamey, Kalin Lucas, John Lueur, E'Twan Moore and JuJuan Johnson cracking first team All-Conference might be a tall order, but Battle certainly merits some strong consideration.  Since being pummeled early in the season by Mississippi and Maryland, the Nittany Lions have been competitive in every contest, losing by no more than eights points in any of their five other losses.  Battle has been the primary reason why.

The Big Tem schedule offers very few "off" nights.  As tough an opponent as Penn State has been, they are still no better than eighth or ninth in the eleven team league.  Up next they begin a brutal four game stretch that includes tips to Purdue and Illinois, as well as a visit from Wisconsin.  It's unlikely they'll fare any better than 1-3, however given their recent play, it's hard to count them completely out of any contest.  The Big Ten's elite have certainly been served notice that the Nittany Lions are no longer an easy win.

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I Got Five on It!

Just a humble bow from the Maniac, who posted a perfect 5-0 against the spread today, pushing our season record to a sparkling 27-12-1.

Home sweet Home...

If you don't see columns for a few days, just know I defied my wife's better judgement and have moved to Grand Bahama to be closer to Atlantis...

Put Up Your Dukes - Duquesnes Stuns Temple to Move to 3-0 in A-10 Play

It's pronounce "Doo-Cane" by the way...

Somwhere Papa Maniac is smiling wide as his alma matter notched one of their biggest wins of the last twenty years. 

Just a few days after proclaiming Temple the best non-MWC mid-major in the country the Owls went to Pittsburgh and got steamrolled by the traditionally less-than-mighty Duquesne Dukes.  The final score wasn't humiliating, but after getting steamrolled by a 22-2 run to open the contest the Owls were never really competitive. 

For Duquesne, it is the kind of win that can jumpstart a team and catapault them on a serious run.  The win surges them to 3-0 in conference play and makes them a legitimate player in the A-10 race.  With Richmond getting beat by Rhode Island, Xavier and Dayton's respective trouble this season and the win today over league favorite Temple, the Dukes have put themselves in interesting position to do something they haven't done in several decades.  Make the NCAA Tournament.

Duquesne is quietly one of the most talent-rich teams in the league.   Both Bill Clark and Damien Saunders have a chance to play ball after college, albeit likely overseas, and the remainder of their roster is roster is a nice blend of experienced upperclassmen and several talented freshman.  In a relatively down year in the A-10 compared to the past four or five years, this is the perfect season for an unexpected team like the Dukes to nudge their way into the elite teams accustomed to their perch atop the league.

If the Dukes are going to make a run at the Tourney, it's going to have to be on the strength of an unprecendently solid conference record.  Duquesne entered league play at only 8-5, with a loss to George Mason and basically every team in the state of Pennsylvania (Pitt, Penn State, Robert Morris and just over the state line in a loss to West Virginia.  Their best wins were over IUPUI and Wisconsin Green Bay, so not much to hang their hat on when it comes time to impress the committee.

Despite the lack of a quality win, they did gather something almost equally important in the preconference season; a lack of fear of big time programs.  With the exception of Pitt, all their losses were by six or less points, including a three point loss at West Virginia.  With a few plays here and there, they could have easily won two or three of their tough losses.

Today's quality win was enormous, and provided the Dukes can stay level-headed following the surprising victory, the schedule does them some favors with four of the next five games being "should-wins" and the lone game in which they will likely be the underdog is a home game versus Dayton. 

I'm not quite ready to put Duquesne IN the tourney, but this is a team that could very easily get to 22 or 23 wins and make a solid case for inclusion come March.
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