Storm of Trouble Bruin for St. John's

Last weekend the St. John's Red Storm were the toast of college basketball after absolutely humiliating the Duke Blue Devils on national TV at Madison Square Garden.

Not quite the homecoming Lavin hoped for.

One weekend later, on the same CBS national television spotlight, the good will the upset over Duke brought evaporated with a 66-59 loss to the sudeenly-bubble worthy UCLA Bruins.  It was a familiar sight for Coach Lavin, watching the Bruins walk out of Pauley Pavillion with a huge victory.  Unfortunately for Lavin, tonight he seated on the opposite bench.

St. John's would present quite an interesting case for the selection committee were the season ending today.  13-9 is certainly not a record that screams "at-large bid" however the fact that those thirteen wins include the blowout win over Duke, as well as wins over Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.  Most of their losses are quality as well, teams like St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati.  However losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure are potential profile killers.

After today, I have the Red Storm in the NIT.  Their next four games are a difficult and vital stretch in which anything less than 2-2 all but elimates the Red Storm from the at-large discussion.  Realisitcally the Johnnie's really need to go 3-1 to get back on comfortable footing.   Connecticut comes to town Thursday, followed by road trips to Cincinnati and Marquette - two games important not just for the Red Storm's profile, but also enormous in that they are games against the two teams they are most likely competing with for the last few at-large bids doled out to BEast teams.  To wrap up the two week's murderers row they get a visit from conference leader Pitt.

There is no doubt that Coach Lavin's first year has been a success, if for nothing else that revitalizing some excitement around the basketball program.  However, if forced to wager I'd bet the Johnnie's are still one year away from making their long-anticipated return to March Madness.

For UCLA, the importance of today's win is hard to overstate.  At 16-7 overall and 7-3 in the Pac-10, the Bruins are beginning to assemble an NCAA Tournament team's resume.  Other than BYU, it is UCLA's first real victory of note.  Aside from Montana, their losses are certainly not embarrassing; Villanova, VCU, Kansas (by 2), Washington, USC and Arizona.  However, it takes a few quality wins to get invited, especially given the overall poor non-conference play from the Pac-10 in 2010.

For the Bruins, they really are in pretty good control of their destiny.  They have five winnable games before a final three that will be fantastic; Washington, Arizona and Washington State; coincidentally the only three teams than have any at-large chances in the Pac-10 aside from themselves.

Ben Howland still have some serious rebuilding to do to get back on par with his three consecutive Final Four teams of the mid-2000's, but after today it is looking more and more like the Bruins won't be sitting out the tourney for the second consecutive season.

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