The Rhode Less Traveled

Fox Sports and Rivals.com both have Temple as one of their "Last 4 Out" as of today. Lunardi finally downgraded the Owls to off the board. All three have Penn State and Oklahoma State and Dayton "IN."

However, there is a team in the A-10 not listed on anyone's radar that makes a case every bit as compelling as Temple, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Texas A&M and San Diego State, Minnesota and a few others..

Let me introduce you to the Rhode Island Rams. The Rams are currently 21-8, (10-4) and in second place in the underrated Atlantic-10. On the Rams resume are wins over Penn State, Northeastern, VCU, Temple and Dayton. Their losses are all nearly all quality ones; Duke, Xavier, Villanova, Providence, St. Joes, Temple, and Richmond (bad loss). They have won 9 of their last 10, and finish with three winable games to get them to 24-8.

More acclaim should be trapping the Rams...

Rhode Island raises perhaps the most interesting question for committee members; is it all wins, losses and RPI's or does HOW you played the game matter?

The Rams lost early at Cameron Indoor to the Top 10 Dukies 82-79. They had a shot at the buzzer to force overtime that didn't go in. Suffice it to say, not many non-conference foes come as close to leaving Cameron with a win as the Rams did. Two weeks later they suffered their only loss by more than six points, falling by 14 to Villanova. They lost at Providence by 1, at Oklahoma State by 4, at St. Joes by 6, to Xavier by a pair... every game they have played they were in right to the wire.

With the exception of Richmond and St. Joes, every loss was a well-played loss to a tourney-caliber ballclub.

Contrast that with some of the conventional bubble-mates low points:

Penn State, while playing in an admittedly more competitive Big Ten has only a non conference win over Georgia Tech to "brag" about. It is offset by losses to Temple and the aforementioned Rams.

Minnesota has the "signature win" over Louisville, but no other non-conference Top 100 wins. Their conference record is a pedestrian .500. They are 5-7 over their last 12 contests.

Cincinnati is now 8-7 in the mighty Big East, so it is hard to see them not dancing. They got their "signature win" last night over West Virginia (who is really close to back on the bubble at 8-7 in the BEast, but should be fine if they don't stumble to South Florida or DePaul).

Cincy's high points are the West Virginia win and solid wins over UAB and a 2-point win over UNLV. However an unbalanced schedule has aided their +.500 surge in conference. Their conference wins, aside from last night are: DePaul, Notre Dame, St John's (twice), Georgetown (twice) and Rutgers. Not exactly a murder's row.

However, it is not the wins, but rather the WAY they lost that should trouble the committee.

34 points pasting by Marquette, a pair of losses to bubble-mate Providence (by 8, and 9), Florida State by 11, Xavier at home by 10, Memphis by 15, Pitt by 16 and by 21 to Villanova.

So is it "quality losses" or the quality of the loss that matters? If you judge by the latter, it is hard to put the Bearcats ahead of the Rams.

Oklahoma State beat Rhode Island at home by 4 and boast a win over Siena. Their non-conference losses are respectable; Gonzaga by 12, Michigan State by 15 and Washington by 18. All three were on the road; something a mid-major knows all about. Notice how few of Rhode Islands win are at home? Exactly - none of the big boys are going there anytime soon. The Cowboys are 7-6 in the top-heavy Big 12, with their wins coming over Baylor, Texas Tech (twice), Texas A&M, Iowa State, Nebraska and Colorado. They will likely get a chance to determine their own fate as they finish the regular season against Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Speaking of Kansas State, their non-conference losses were an interesting lot, Kentucky (by 2), Iowa (2) and Oregon (5). It is possible all three are non-tourney invite losses. They have no non-conference wins over Top 100 teams. Their conference slate is similar to OK State - fatten up on the bottom and get full; were it not for the Missouri and Texas wins it is unlikely the Wildcats are even in the discussion.

For the record - the A-10 is not as strong a conference as the Big 12, you'll get no argument here. But using the eyeball test, are Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas Tech really any better than Temple, St. Joes, Rhode Island, Duquesne, and the middle of the A-10??

Will the Rams be Dancing in three weeks? Probably no; not unless they win the A-10 Tourney. Should they be? It really depends on how the chips fall. But they absolutely deserve to be in the discussion.

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Naismith's Laws of Motion

It becomes popular fashion this time of year to hype up potential victories as "the one" that puts a team safely into the NCAA Tournament. For example, the Cincinnati v. West Virginia tilt tonight (with which I agree, a UC win should put them in good shape). The one that most raised my eyebrow is tonight's Memphis v. UAB contest.

Conventional hoops writer and blogger rhetoric says the Blazers MUST win tonight to make the tourney (agreed.) and that with a win over Memphis and a run to the conference tourney final (and loss to Memphis in the Final) and they are IN. It sure seems like that scenario would give them a respectable resume, but my question is, "Ok, so they are in. Who's OUT?"

And then it gets a whole lot tougher. If UAB wins tonight, do they move ahead of Providence (just beat Pitt)? Maryland (just beat UNC)? What about if Notre Dame gets UConn this Saturday and wins out? You see, sometimes it takes more than a win to get in...

In some circumstances, when two bubble teams collide, there is a ripple effect beyond the mere outcome of that single game. For example, Providence's win over Pitt puts Cincinnati in a real tough spot. Maryland knocking off Carolina and Boston College beating Duke makes things stickier for Virginia Tech.

There is no better example of this principle than in the Big Ten, where five teams sit legitimately perched on the bubble. They all play each other all over the place the next few weeks and it is a virtual certainty that at least three will get in; it is unlikely all five will.

So if your team is sitting on the bubble with any of these five, there are certain teams to root for as they go head to head. For example, Ohio State and Wisconsin boast the best resumes of the five - should they win their games (and subsequently batter Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State's chances) it is a good thing. Conversely, if Michigan and Penn State steal a few more wins, the likelihood of FOUR or FIVE spots going the Big Ten's way shrinks the remaining pool of 34.

Make sense?

In order for a team to be "IN" - someone else has to be OUT. Call it Naismith's Law of Motion. Every win has an equal and opposite loss.

Here is a quick checklist of teams to root against if you are feeling the bubble pressure:

Teams to Root Against (if your team is on the bubble)
Cincinnati, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Temple, UAB, Davidson*, Siena*, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Kansas State

* (Teams to begin rooting FOR come conference tourney time - eliminate all doubt!)

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Queen for a Night

It's a beautiful hoops night for the Queen City as both Cincinnati and Xavier take their simultaneous turn on ESPN. Both games have importance to the respective clubs, but could not be more different in tenor.

The Muskies travel to Phily to tangle with conference rival St. Joe's. Over the past few years, these two have been the class of the A-10 and always play competitive, exciting ball games. For X, a win holds the rope, but a loss starts pinning them down into dangerous #6-#7 seeding territory. From the Maniac's cheap seats, I think X wins out and ends up the #3 in the bracket with Carolina. Just a hunch.

Cincinnati welcomes back one of the their iconic figures in their basketball lore as Bob Huggins makes his return to "The Shoe." Three years have passed, but it will still feel strange to see hime on the opposing sideline. UC has a pregame video tribute planned that is sure to jerk a few tears from Huggy and his loyal faithful. It will also probably be one of the most sanctimonious, self serving horse shit tributes in history. The University made their bed smilingly when they dismissed Huggins amid some controversy. While the tribute is deserved; and for many Bearcat fans heartfelt, the real tribute joy will come from sealing up an NCAA bid tonight for his Mountaineers.... oh, and buring the Bearcats chances in the process.

MANIACS PICKS: West Virginia & Xavier.

Mem...ries...of the way we used to be...

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Anonymous "Signature"

The phrase de' jour this season in college hoops is "signature win." Everyone needs to have their "signature win." Providence got theirs this week beating Pitt. Cincinnati lacks one, and it will likely be their bubble popping lest they win tonight against West Virginia. Maryland got theirs this weekend taking down Carolina in overtime; ditto for BC's bookend wins over Duke and the aforementioned Heels.

But at what point does the "signature" begin to fade?? Last night ESPN threw up a graphic of the "signature wins" for the ACC's bottom six teams. FOUR of them read "Wake Forest."

Leading me to question....

Just a thought. I don't hate Wake, just think they have gotten more mileage out of the timing of when they won more than any team in the nation. Their resume, is quite comparable to a lot of teams ranked 15-25, only they didn't lose out of conference (nor did they beat anyone other than BYU). So what exactly does a "signature win" entail??

Anyhow, several teams will be seeking their "signature wins" this week as we franticly race towards Selection Sunday:

Thursday:

West Virginia @ Cincinnati - Cincy needs a win over Huggs to stay alive
Minnesota @ Illinois - Gophers in danger of sliding onto..and off the bubble
Memphis @ UAB (9pm) - Darth Vaden needs to strike back in a major way to keep the Blazers slim at-large hopes alive
USC @ Cal - Last gasp for USC as well tonight at Cal

Saturday:

Clemson @ Florida State (2pm) - big game for both seeding-wise
Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm) - Do or die for the Irish...again.
Illinois St @ Creighton (2pm) - Great game; Jays can not afford any losses before MVC title game to snag an at-large bid
Arizona @ Washington - Win for 'Cats takes them from "bubble" to "lock" status
Duke @ VA Tech - Hokies got big win at Clemson, a win over Duke might put them in the Dance
LSU @ Kentucky (4pm) - Kentucky is in danger of playing themselves out of the tourney
Utah @ BYU - One would think both teams are safely in, but the winner removes all doubt
Utah St @ Nevada - The Aggies are 25-3, and still not quite a lock, they can ill-afford to give away another L and be safely in.

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Dizzy Gillespie

Billy Gillespie must be wondering which way is up, and if his Cats will ever find it. Kentucky entered last night's crucial matchup at South Carolina fresh off a nationally televised pasting of Tennessee. The win completed a season sweep of the Vols and left the Cats in good position to win the SEC East.

Patrick Patterson was again healthy, Jodie Meeks had been as good as any guard in the country over the past two months and the Kentucky role players looked like they actually had roles they were capable of fulfilling.

Enter the Gamecocks. Lexington native Darrin Horn's South Carolina squad utilized a smothering defense to force turnover after turnover and their interior defense sent a school-record 16 shots back at Kentucky shooters. The Wildcats looked hopelessly lost and unable to compete, falling by a 18 point margin that underscores how non-competitive the game was.

Now, a new reality and a sense of urgency accompanies Coach Gillespie's 'Cats; the very real possibility of being excluded from the NCAA tourney for the first time since probation rocked the Commenwealth in the early 1990's. At 19-9, (8-5) Kentucky is by no means dead, but better play well in their final three contests; two of which are very loseable games. LSU brings their 12 game conference win streak to Lexington on Saturday, followed by a visit from Georgia and a season-ending trip to Gainesville. Two of three puts some presure on them to win a game in the SEC tourney; one of three means they may need to get to the final.

Coach Gillespie remarked that it is the first time in his coaching career that this late in the season he had no idea what to expect from his team. However, I imagine he is learning well what to expect from the Big Blue faithful. The seat gets hotter when things get this tight. A trip to the NIT? Well, lets just say there is a real good chance Billy won't need to worry about how the 'Cats will play next year...

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Seven for the Stretch Run

Even by the most conservative estimates, there are no more than 15 at-large bids up for grabs. If one leans towards practicality, the number is closer to 9 or 10, as Syracuse, West Virginia, Florida State and Utah are closer to locks than the bubble.

That said, here is the Maniac's slant on who leans through the finish line and who stands gasping with their hands on their hips.

Cincinnati - 17-10 (7-7)
The Cats will have their chance to move into secure footing Thursday night when they take on former coach Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. Following the WVU game they go to Syracuse for their final chance at a marquee win. Their final two games are should wins at South Florida and hosting Seton Hall. Should the Cats split their next two, then handle their business in the final two they would finish 20-11, 10-8. That should be enough to dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Virginia Tech 16-10 (6-6)
The Hokies have played themselves on the wring side of the bubble dropping three straight games. The good news? They have four games remaining to pick up some valuable wins and play their way in. The flipside? They could easily drop three or even all four and find themselves a tourney afterthought (and middle seed in the NIT). The gauntlet starts tonight at Clemson, followed by visits from Duke and UNC. The finale is a trip to Florida State...but by then it may not matter too much.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
With all apologies to Barack, The Friars showed us a real game changer last night. Their start-to-finish beating of the #1 Panthers last night took the Friars from first team out to comfortably IN. Now they just have to hold the rope. A win over Rutgers and a non-embarassing performance at Villanova and in the first round of the Big East tourney should get the Friars a ticket to the Dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Notre Dame 15-11 (6-8)
Ok, hear me out... Notre Dame has two should wins on the schedule, a trip to Storrs Saturday and a home game against Villanova. If they go 3-1, and win a game in the Big East tourney, they would finish up 19-13, (9-9). It would depend on how well some of the smaller conference locks fare in the conference tourney, but I think it would be enough to get the Irish the last at large bid. Win at Connecticut? Notre Dame passes Cincinnati and Providence and becomes the Big East's 7th bid.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Kansas State 19-8 (7-5)
The Wildacts put on a heckuva run to even get to this point in the discussion, but a colser look at the resume makes their case a longshot. They boast no major non-conference wins, and have losses to Kentucky (acceptable), Iowa (less acceptable) and Oregon (something NO Pac-10 team has to apologize for...). Their final four gives them a chance to win their way in; games against Nebraska and Oklahoma State are winnable and attractive wins to boot, the Missouri game would be the clincher. It is asking a lot of a team that no one expected to be here after starting 0-5 in Big 12 play.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

UAB 19-8 (9-3)
The Blazers have an early season win over Arizona, and all five of their non-conference losses are to tourney teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Cincinati, Louisville, and BC). That said, this is not your Daddy's C-USA. It is a 1-bid league these days, though Houston, Tulsa and the Blazers are much improved. The Blazers do get a de facto first round tourney game on Saturday when they take on Memphis. Win that, and their other remaining three and they make a compelling case for the committee to consider. Should they lose Saturday, they better win the C-USA tourney ior it is another trip to the NIT for Robert Vaden and Coach Davis.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Creighton 23-6 (13-4)
Wins over Dayton, St. Joes and New Mexico and a two-point losses to underrated Arkansas Little Rock and Nebraska give the Blue Jays one of the more intriguing discussions. 13-4 in the balanced, but not spectacular MVC leads one to believe the Jays need to win the tourney to Dance. I think if they win Saturday over Illinois State and finish the regular season at 24-6 they will be fine; deservedly so.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

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Something Festive Friar-ing

Providence resurrected sagging tourney aspirations with a HUGE win at home on senior night at the Dunkin' Donuts Center topping #1 Pitt 81-73.

For a team desperatly seeking a signature win, it doesn't get much better than tackling the #1 team in the nation; and a nearly sure-fire #1 seed in the tourney.

The biggest loser? The Cincinnati Bearcats. The Cats were balancing on same bubble as the Friars, with many (Maniac included) giving a slight nod to the Cats. With tonight's win by Providence and their series sweep over UC, Providnce moves back INTO the Big Dance, while the Cats need to hold serve and upset West Virginia Thursday night to keep pace.

Dunkin' GoNuts!

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VMI Rolls

For those whose interest was piqued enough to care out VMI v. Liberty - it wasn't quite as good as the Maniac mentioned...er...not even close.

VMI rolled 109-72 (told you they could score).

The Holmes boys combined for 46 points and 4 steals.

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Bubblin' on Tuesday

Here's a quick guide to tonight's biggest bubble-impacting contests.

Penn State @ Ohio State:

Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5

Pitt @ Providence:

Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.

So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9

Florida St @ Boston College:

BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.

FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5

Florida @ LSU:

I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.

Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5


Two other bubble games, but no picks:

Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.

BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.

A win tonight would be "fab" for Fisher

Two week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy

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Not on Your Dial, Unfortunatly

The best game that no one who reads this column will see features a young sharpshooting Curry... just not the one most people know.

Steph's little brother Seth laces them up tonight in a game pitting two squads that have already eclipsed the 20-win mark. Liberty is looking to rebound from a rare national TV appearance (oh, and 24 point blowout loss to Old Dominion) tonight against conference foe VMI. The Kadets got the nation's attention right off the bat with their season-opening upset in Rupp Arena, however the "upset" proved more a harbinger of solid things to come for the Kadets.

While the game ostensibly means little, neither will recieve an at-large bid, it should be exciting. Liberty features Curry, the nation's leading freshman scorer, while VMI puts the ball through the hoop as often as any team in the country. Their frenetic pace is spearheaded by four players averaging over 14 ppg, as well as the nation's top two steals men in Chavis and Travis Holmes (who also average 22 & 19 ppg respectively).

The winner tonight will seal up the 2nd seed in the Big South, trailing only surprise conference leader Radford (14-2).

They might lead the nation in thefts, but I wouldn't steal anything from these two Kadets...

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Bracketeering - February 24th

After numerous requests, the Maniac is unveiling his first full bracket of the season! Needless to say, this thing is very fluid. It is based on if the season ended NOW, not predictions. We will hurl a few predictions as the week unfurls (for example, I have a funny feeling somehow Notre Dame sneaks in this thing... perhaps bumping a Kansas State, UNLV, Ohio State, or a few others.

And of course, this bracket does not account for what happens when a Butler, Davidson or Siena lose their conference tourney...or if Temple or Portland or Georgia win their conference tournaments...

I love March.

Here We go:

#1 Pitt v. #16 Alabama St/Pacific
#8 Arizona v. #9 S. Carolina
#4 Clemson v. #13 UNLV
#5 UCLA v. #12 Cincinnati
#6 Washington v. #11 VCU
#3 Kansas v. #14 Buffalo
#7 Utah v. #10 Maryland
#2 Michigan St v. #15 Weber St.


#1 Oklahoma v #16 Cornell
#8 St. Mary's v. #9 Tennessee
#4 Marquette v. #13 North Dakota St.
#5 Wake Forest v. #12 Kansas St.
#6 Butler v. #11 BYU
#3 Villanova v. #14 Stephen F. Austin
#7 Syracuse v. #10 Boston College
#2 Duke v. #15 Tennessee Martin


#1 UConn v. #16 Robert Morris
#8 Kentucky v. #9 Dayton
#4 Xavier v. #13 Vermont
#5 Florida St. v. #12 Wisconsin
#6 Texas v. #11 Minnesota
#3 Purdue v. #14 Ark. Little Rock
#7 Florida v. #10 Creighton
#2 Memphis v. #15 VMI


#1 North Carolina v. #16 Morgan State
#8 Siena v. #9 Cal
#4 Missouri v. #13 Davidson
#5 Gonzaga v. #12 Ohio State
#6 LSU v. #11 Utah State
#3 Arizona St. v. #14 American
#7 Illinois v. #10 West Virgina
#2 Louisville v. #15 Belmont

OK - so let the arguments begin - tell me who you have higher, lower, in and out!

Maniac's Barely Breathing:
UNLV, Kansas State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati

Maniac's Crowded Waiting Room:
Virginia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Providence, Notre Dame, George Mason, New Mexico, Temple, Miami (FL), Niagara, UAB

IF This Bracket was real - three first rounders to TiVo:
Missouri/Davidson, Purdue/Ark Little Rock, Florida State/Wisconsin

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R P Why?

Selection Sunday is three weeks from today, so get used to hearing about "RPI's" and the fate-sealing power they hold over those on the dreaded Boeheim ("bubble" for my new readers). The RPI is the ubiquitous rating system that makes about as much sense as Quarterback Ratings and the BCS; equal parts nebulous and vital to a team and its opportunity for success.

Let me walk you through three RPWhy's lest us diehard fans place too much stock in this "rating" methodology.

First, Siena. I am as big a fan of the underdog as anyone. As a matter of fact, I believe Siena has earned an at large bid already and will dance regardless of whether or not they win their conference tourney (not an automatic, Niagara is tourney-tough as well). However, their RPI has hovered in the teens nearly all season without any semblance of a quality win.

Their losses are mostly quality: Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Wichita State (bas loss), Pitt, Kansas and Rider. Their "biggest" wins are over Cornell, St. Joes and Niagara.

Their conference is a mid-major by the most generous labeling; yet the above resume has them comfortably perched in the RPI Top 25.

Secondly, lets examine Kentucky. Their RPI currently has them 66th, well outside traditional at-large consideration. Much of the blame can be placed on the relative weakness of the SEC this season (giving them the 77th SOS), which is beyond their control, but nonetheless a legitimate mitigating factor.

Digging deeper in Kentucky's resume you will find the following non-conference games:
Losses: North Carolina, Miami, Louisville (at the buzzer) and of course, the dagger, the season-opening loss to lowly VMI.

Wins: Indiana (who knew when scheduling this game...) Kansas State, and West Virginia. Their conference losses against South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State are offset by wins over Florida and a sweep of "tourney lock" Tennessee.

They are 19-8, (8-4) and in first place in the SEC East, a BCS conference and traditional powerhouse.

By all conventional measures, they are tourney locks. However, their RPI suggests they best win 2 or 3 more games to breathe easily.

Lastly, lets examine the Utah Utes. They are currently ranked 9th in the RPI. They are 10-2 in the good Mountain West Conference. The conference is ranked 7th in the RPI, just behind the SEC and the highest rated non-BCS conference.

Their non-conference wins include Wisconsin Green-Bay, Mississippi and LSU. Their losses include Cal, Oklahoma, Utah State and Idaho State.

Looking just at conference affiliation, conference record, wins and losses and quality of opponents, one would think that Kentucky and Utah should be neck and neck. However the difference between them is 52 spots! That is the difference between life and death in the world of NCAA tournament bracketing. What exactly accounts for the vast discrepancy?? Your guess is as good as mine, but much stems from that damning opening Wildcat loss to what may eventually be NCAA tourney bound VMI.

Ready for the show-stopper?? Utah also suffered a season opening loss to Southwest Baptist! Not familiar with them? It's OK, not many are. They won't be in the Big Dance this March...they aren't even Division I. However, due to a glitch in RPI calculating methods, this disgraceful loss doesn't factor into the ratings.

RPI's are a potentially useful tool, but here's hoping the committee uses their EYEs as well three Sundays from today.

With an RPI at 9, no need to scramble on Selection Sunday

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Updating Your Portfolio (Pt 2)

OK, continuing on with the second half of the AP Poll:

#13 Clemson - BUY. If they had a different name on the front of the jersey; say "Duke" or "North Carolina" they'd be ranked sixth or seventh in the country. Right now the Tigers are 22-4, their only bad loss a slip up to Virginia. The other three are to Florida State, North Carolina and Wake. Their wins include Temple, Illinois, South Carolina, Miami, BC, Virginia Tech and an absolute undressing of Duke on national TV. This Tiger team is deep and experienced and a legitimate threat to make a run deep in the tourney this March.

#14 Arizona State - SELL. Is there a word more urgent than "sell"? "Dump" maybe? James Harden is great, but this is not a team with Elite 8 or Final Four make-up. They have some good wins this year; BYU, Arizona, and a sweep of UCLA. The don't have the depth or the battle-testedness (sic.) to be ready for the Big East and ACC boys come tourney time.

#15 Kansas - BUY. What's not to like? Bill Self lost nearly every contributor from his defending national championship squad, yet here we go again. The Jayhawks are an upset-win tomorrow night at Oklahoma from winning the Big 12 and catapulting into a #2 seed. Bill Self is on my short list for National Coach of the year, but he has had some help. Namely from big man Cole Alderich and lead guard Sharron Collins. All five of their losses are to team that will Dance (except a 1-pt loss to UMass) and most of the losses were early (understandable for a young team). In the meantime, they have racked up wins against Washington, Temple, Siena and Tennessee in addition to their 11-1 Big 12 record. Hard to believe, but the Jayhawks are back quicker than anyone expected.

#16 Xavier - BUY. The Muskies have hit a small mid season swoon, losing inexplicably to Charlotte and Duquesne. Perhaps X lost a little focus, but they remain a deep team with a handful of fearless, tourney-experienced veterans in tow. Consistent PG play continues to be a concern for the Muskies moving forward, as well as finding a consistent offensive go-to guy.

For their bad losses, they will likely be punished at least two seeding lines. Such is the life of a (apologies to Sean Miller) "mid-major"; losses are magnified, while big wins slide into the backdrop. Just to recap, this is the same team that has beaten Memphis, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, and LSU. Not many teams in the nation can boast a better quintet of non-conference wins.

#17 Gonzaga - HOLD. The Zags remain the most perplexing team in the nation; a "mid-major" conference school with the talent to win a national championship, yet they seem to go through extended lapses where they play listless and loose. Their most recent litmus test was a miserable failure, getting housed by Memphis in their final non-conference tune-up for March. If the Zags get it together, there is no reason Pargo, Heytvelt, Daye, Boldin and crew can't get to Detroit. However I don't think many people will be surprised if they are vanquished in the opening weekend.

#18 Illinois - HOLD. It is hard to take a team that has twice scored under 40 points in a regulation game too seriously...until you consider they only gave up 56 and 38 in those games respectively. Oh, and they are 22-4 in the rest of their games. The point is Illinois can lock it down on defense and when teams get nervous and start pulling the string a bit in the Big Dance, defense isn't going anywhere.

#19 Purdue - BUY. With an Alex Rodriguez/Barry Bonds sized asterisk. IF Robbie Hummel is healthy, the Boilers are my sleeper Final Four pick. Without him? The Boilers will be catching the early train home from the tourney. It isn't that Hummel carries the team, in fact, JuJuan Johnson has emerged inside as their best player and their guard play (Moore, Kramer and Grant) have been the key to their recent success. It is just the floor balance and intangibles that come with Hummel. They are a different team when he is on the floor and healthy.

#20 UCLA - HOLD. You can call me stubborn and it would be warranted, because the Bruins have done nothing to show they have the mettle to make a run to Detroit, but until they LOSE in March I'll keep the light on for 'em. Collison entered the season as an All-American candidate, but has faded far behind Meeks, Curry, Teague and Lawson in the discussion. As a matter of fact Jerel McNeil, Johnny Flynn, Nick Calathes...the list goes on and on, are ahead of Mr. Collison. But as more than a few NBA millionaires who never took off their warm-ups (see: Patrick O'Bryant) can tell you, redemption comes quick and sweet under the bright lights of March.

#21 Butler - HOLD. This is a Sweet-16 talented team. Much like Xavier above (whom Butler beat, by the way) they will take a seeding-beating for their two recent Horizon losses. However, Butler is disciplined, handles the ball well, defends aggressively on the perimeter and always has 4 guys on the floor who can stroke it from deep. It is tried and true formula for tourney success...just ask...well, Butler.

#22 Washington - SELL. Washington is a nice story, and well deserving of their #5 or #6 seed they will earn. That said, I'd be surprised if they play out of the first weekend.

#23 LSU - SELL!! The Tigers have become the media darlings of late. I even heard a CBS "studio analyst" offer his vote for National Coach of the Year for the "great job" turned in by Trent Johnson. Let's run though LSU's non-conference "big games" shall we? Losses: Xavier, Texas A&M, and Utah by 30. Wins: NONE. As in, their best non-conference wins are Alcorn State, Grambling State, LA Lafayette, McNeese State, Centenary and Washington State. Ok, Washington State is semi-legit, but the rest are laughable. I find it hard to believe the committee can reward the Tigers with anything better than an #8 seed for that gauntlet...

#24 Syracuse - HOLD. The Orange do not defend well enough to win games in March, but their talent level is Top 15 - Top 20 in the country. In a one and done format, it is hard to overlook their potential to get hot and make a run.

#25 Dayton - SELL. The win over Marquette early aides in the Flyers seeding, the upcoming tilt with Xavier will go a long way to determining whether the Flyers are in the 5-6 range or the 9-11 range. Either way, I don't see them advancing out of the first weekend.

So there you have it folks, the Maniac's fool proof stock report. Take that to your brackets and let it rip!

THREE MORE TEAMS TO BUY:
Siena, Florida State and Arizona

THREE MORE TO SELL:
Boston College, Utah, Ohio State

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Players of the Weekend

The beautiful thing about college hoops is you never really know who and when the stage will be stolen. With just three weeks until Selection Sunday, the Madness got a great prequel with a handful of spectacular performances.

Player of the Weekend:

Grieves Vasquez recorded Maryland's first triple double in more than twenty years in leading the Terps to an improbable OT comeback victory over the Tarheels. Trailing by six with less than a minute to go in regulation, the Terps surged back with trapping D and clutch scoring; the final bucket to tie coming on a Vasquez drive with seven seconds to play. For good measure he blocked Ty Lawson's buzzer beater attempt and controled overtime for the entire five monutes.

Honorable Mention:

AJ Abrams looked more like the November All-American worthy version than the Abrams that showed up the past few weeks. With the Horns on the ropes and the season on the verge of slipping away, Abrams scored 15 points in the final five and a half minutes and shot Texas to a huge victory over arch rival Oklahoma

Gordon Hayawrd (Butler) - The sensational freshman upstaged the heralded Steph Curry netting 27 points in Butler's easy victory over Davidson. The bitch of "Brackbuster Weekend" is that is a lose-lose for the small schools. Butler wins, and "Davidson isn't that good." Meanwhile, for Davidson it is another strike in the "they can't hang with the big boys" column. Unfortunatly for the 'Cats, it means they better win he SoCon tourney in two weeks if they want to dance.


OK, off my soapbox - the point; Hayward and the Bulldogs looked great.

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