Cuse Don't Fail Me Now

I usually don't venture into cyberspace to make only one pick, but the game tonight is just begging me to weigh in. Syracuse, arguably the most impressive team thus far in 2009, lays only 2 points against the Florida Gators.

Granted, Florida has some big brand name wins. They have beaten Florida State (in my opinion a bubble team come March) and Michigan State (who always loses a few in November and subsequently rewards their vanquishers via RPI boosts in March when Izzo's Spartans finish with a flurry).

I suppose from the parenthetical asides it is pretty clear who I am picking in this one. The 'Cuse biggest concern will be shaking off a little rust from a quiet three weeks which featured four games, none close, and none against tourney-bound foes.

The biggest tip I can offer you recreational, non-real money wagering readers is that Vegas is treating this like a road game. Syracuse is an easy 6-7 point favorite on a neutral floor; which is precisely what the St. Pete Forum is. Will it be a decided pro-Gator crowd? Probably. Is the O'Connell Center? Not by a long shot.

MANIAC'S PICK:
Give me Syracuse -2 in yet another big early season profile building win.
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Conference Who-S-A?

,Not long ago, Conference USA was every bit as relevant on a national scale as the Big East, SEC and Big 12. Those days are long, long gone. It's easy to blame the exodus of Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, and DePaul to the BEast (as well at St. Louis and Charlotte fleeing to the A-10).However, there is another big factor at work.

Where have you gone Kenyon Martin? Our conference turns it's lonely eyes to you...

Today, of the circa-2002 formidable powers only Memphis remains; and accordingly it has played out precisely that way for the past four years. Before the season there was some tepid optimism with the changes at Memphis that this could be the year parity began to creep in and C-USA could claim on multiple bids in the tourney. Tulsa has been hailed as the primary threat to unseat the Tigers, with UAB, UTEP and Houston thought to be solid clubs.

The problem for Conference USA? Who are they going to prove they've improved against?

Memphis dispelled some of the notions of being decimated after Coach Cal heading to the Bluegrass (with the Nation's #1 recruiting class with him) when they gave Kansas all they could handle on the season's opening weekend. So... are the Tigers for real? We'll call ya on New Year's Eve when they tangle with the Tennessee Vols. In the six weeks between those quality games? Some real mettle-testers including: Central Arkansas, Arkansas State and Arkansas Little Rock. Perhaps Memphis's AD is set on proving his Ark-based dominance. Screw you Bill Clinton!

In the Tigers' defense, by the time it is all said and done they will have faced Kansas, Tennessee, Syracuse and Gonzaga. The Tigers consistently play a good non-conference slate, and if there was ever a year to unusually backload the schedule it is this transtition year.

However, there is little excuse for the rest. UTEP has played only five games this year. Their opponents are Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Arkansas State (again with the Arkansas theme...), NC A&T, and New Mexico State. They will heat it up in December with games against Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas tech and BYU. Win three of four, and we'll talk. For now, any early acclaim given to the Miners should be...well... minor.

UAB is Blazing through powers like Florida A&M and Samford, and suffered a loss to Wright State. Their win over Wisc-Milwaukee looks better after the Phoenix OT win last night over Wisconsin, but it looks to me like UAB will have to beat both Cincinnati and Butler in their only two non-conference games of quality remaining to get at-large consideration.

Tulsa was the sheik pick to unseat the Tigers. Their early loss to Missouri State is looking better everyday, and the solid win over in-state rival Oklahoma State helps. The subsequent 81-80 squeker over MAC doormat Ohio is a little concerning. Even a little more concerning? Their only chance for another "decent" win is a trip to Big-12 lower-tier Nebraska. That is just not the profile of an at-large team come March.

Southern Miss is 5-1, coming off last night's respectable 2-point loss to a good Mississippi team. They better win at Vandy, or they run the real risk of their best non-conference wins to be over Montana St (by 4) and this weekend's shot at South Alabama.

UCF looked like a nice sleeper early, beating UMass and Auburn before losing to Niagara. Last weekend's 20+ pasting at Notre Dame dampens some of that optimism for my beloved alma matter. The Knights still have trips to Connecticut and Mississippi giving them an opportunit to steal a few headlines for C-USA. However, the fact they are able to schedule those games is a bit telling; UCF is still viewed as low-major fodder, a carryover reputation from their Atlantic Sun days they've done little to erode.

Houston might end up being the only team to notch a "banner" win for the conference before the calendar flips to 2010. The Cougars got theirs over Oklahoma (that will look a little better by season's end as the Sooners improve), but tempered some of the enthusiasm with losses to Nevada (by 3) and San Diego (by 6). They get another chance to make some small waves over thus-far disappointing Mississippi State next Saturday.

There in lies the problem. If your biggest "pre-conference" win is Houston over Oklahoma, you are in trouble. Is C-USA better top to bottom than leagues like the Colonial and WCC? Yes, I believe they are without a doubt. However, with little opportunity to showcase their strength in the early going it looks like another one-team party in this year's Big Dance, and a further dip into mid-major permanence.


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How Bout Them Apples?!? Harvard Tops BC... AGAIN

It's becoming an annual tradition at March Maniacs. The pre-Christmas Go-Harvard article after stunning and stomping the Boston College Eagles.

But, yet again this year, Tommy Amaker's Crimson have earned it. Tonight theyagain tackled the Big East giant, 74-67. BC came in on a three game win streak which boasted wins over Providence (who hammered GW tonight scoring 110 points), Michigan and previously undefeated Miami.

The win moves the Crimson to 7-2. Their losses are a disappointing 3-point loss to Army and a stunningly impressive 6-point loss to UConn. They have also beaten a very good William & Mary team that will challenge for the automatic bid in the Colonial. It might be a little over-zealous to say they are building a NCAA Tourney resume, they still need to win the Ivy. But should they fall to a very good Cornell team it doesn't seem out of the question for them to float on the NIT radar.

"Wanna go to a Harvard bar and f*&k-up some smart kids?"
Not tonight....


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Half a Second From Infamy

I know this is a college hoops site, but surely many of our readers caught the end of the Nebraska - Texas Big 12 Championship Game last night. The final possession for Texas was inexplicable by nearly all standards; first, why on Earth was Texas so content to rely on a 45+ yard FG to save their perfect dream season? They had nearly a minute on the clock and a timeout in their pocket, yet never attempted to move the ball any closer. Earlier in the game they let senior QB Colt McCoy (the winningest QB in the HISTORY of college football) throw on third and long on his own one inch line against the best D in the country.

Yet with a minute to go? Scared to even attempt to pick up yards through the air. Puzzling.

As Colt McCoy bizarrely floated a completely useless pass downfield, ten yards out of bounds as the clock appeared to tick to zero, my brain immediately raced to rank that brain cramp on the all time sports scale. My immediate thought had to be Top Five, probably Top Three.

Then came the reprieve. Upon further review officials placed one second back on the clock. Texas's kicker drilled a 46 yarder with about six inches to spare inside the left upright. The clock, again, struck zero, permanently this time, and Texas will play for the National Championship, undefeated.

Saved by the bell. Or at least the replay official.

It got me thinking... what if some of college basketball's most famed gaffes had a similar "replay"??

Hmmm.

Say the officials went to the monitors in 1993, and correctly determined Chris Webber traveled long before the ill-fated "Timeout! Timeout!" Carolina inbounds the ball, likely hits at least one free throw and probably wins the game. The outcome is no different. For anyone except Webber that is.

Instead of being remembered for the TO that wasn't, he is instead remembered as a very good NBA player who never quite reached his full potential as a player or winner...and (allegedly) shagging a pre-hefty Tyra Banks in her Victoria Secret/SI Cover prime. Not a bad career my friends, not bad at all.

What if they go to the monitors and determine Memphis wrapped up before "The Shot" in 2008? Kansas steps to the line, hits the first, then misses the second intentionally. Joey Dorsey corrals the rebound, the horn sounds, he flings the ball several hundred joyous feet into the sky and Calipari hugs his tearful players as they dance in celebration.

The what-ifs here are limitless. For one, there is no joy in Lexington today. Travis Ford's Cats (or John Pelphrey - I say Ford) have just gotten blown off the court by the UNC Tarheels. Rebuilding? Heck, the Heels are BETTER this year with freshman phenom John Wall leading the Heels to the #1 ranking. Their dynamite frontcourt of Davis, Thompson and Wear are dunking in record numbers in transition and the Heels look to be in position to repeat as champs.

Memphis, of course is again loaded, with Xavier Henry and DeMarcus Cousins leading the charge, as the Tigers look to capture the first national title in Calipari's and the school's history.

Oh, the one in 2008? It's been vacated. But Cal didn't do anything, so it's OK.

Of course, none of that happened. It only could have, should have...but didn't. Freddie Brown will have always passed to James Worthy in 1982. Chris Webber will always have the ill-fated TO, and Colt McCoy will always be remembered as the winningest QB in college football history who led Texas to the 2009 BCS Title Game (and perhaps the title.)

You see in sports, just like life, it is the slimmest of slivers of time that affect our legacy.

But sometimes don't you wish you had Instant Replay too?


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Feeding the Fire

Yup. For those of you counting the Maniac has now hit on 8 of 9 picks, nearly every one of them not just right, but almost exactly mapped in terms of tempo and margin. SO - what do we have in store for today?

Here's some quick Sunday picks:

No official pick here, but I have a feeling UCF is going to give Notre Dame a handful and even pull off an upset today in the Joyce Center.

1PM - South Carolina is banged up, Clemson is coming off a stunning second half twenty-plus point collapse against Illinois. The Tigers will be jacked up and focused to host in state rival USC and cover the 7 point spread.

7PM - Arizona is 3-3, but has lost multiple OT and two point heartbreakers. Tonight they are getting 8 points at less-than stellar Oklahoma. This line fluttered too far after Oklahoma laid the lumber to Arkansas. It looks good in the boxscore, but again, Arkansas has been combing the campus to find bodies to dress. It is akin to beating a low-major this year. Give me Nic Wise and Sean Miller's Cats to cover.

7:30PM - Touch this game at your own peril. Villanova takes their #3 ranking to take on the Terps in DC...and is laying only 2? Seems low, but would anyone be surprised to see Grevies Vasquez go off for like 27-8-8 today in an upset? I wouldn't. I think 'Nova should be laying more but am staying away from an official pick on this one.

SEASON RECORD: 21-12-1 ATS


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