Round One Conference Report Cards

Round One has come and gone (someone tell Vandy the Tourney started!?!), and it is time to give the conferences their first quarter grades

Big East: A

Perhaps no conference asserted itself like the Big East in Round One. Yes, the UCONN loss wasn't a good one. But, it is just one loss and an overtime buzzer-beater at that. Villanova capped off a wild day in Tampa, making it 4 for 4 for double-digit seeds. Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame and Pitt all won easily and convincingly. Marquette and West Virginia were impressive in evenly matched power-conference tilts (defeating Kentucky and Arizona respectively)

With a legit possibility for 5 or more teams to advance past the first weekend, the Big East justified it's record-tying 8 bids.

Big 12: A

Texas and Kansas were gimmes, but Kansas St, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma were all very impressive and solid wins. The only blemish was Baylor's lackluster performance, but the Maniac gives the conference a pass on that one, if Baylor was seeded appropriately (as a #2 Seed... in the NIT!!) it would have been a perfect opening round for the Big 12

Big Ten: B-

Michigan St and Purdue looked sharp, Wisconsin won in a relatively easy tilt. Indiana laid a big fat stink bomb against a mediocre Arkansas club. With only 4 teams in the Dance, at least 2 need to win this weekend to salvage the tourney for the Big 10.

Pac 10: C+

I know, I know, UCLA and Stanford could be in the Final Four. BUT, Arizona, Oregon and USC all looked pathetic coming out of what was alleged to be the "deepest and most balanced" league in the nation. With losses to similarly middling teams from the Big 12, Big East; it is tough for the Pac 10 to make that claim today.

SEC: C-

Georgia actually GETS points for the loss, they had X on the ropes for 32 minutes. Kentucky did nothing to embarrass themselves either, losing a reasonable game to a better Marquette squad, and Arkansas represented well. However the Vandy loss remains the most inexplicable no-show of the tourney. Losing by 20 to Sienna is flat-out inexcusable for a team with that much talent. Add in the Mississippi St. loss and a lackluster effort by Tennessee (watch out for Butler taking them OUT tomorrow) and it is a disappointing show for a "down" SEC.

ACC: C

North Carolina had a bye, and so did Duke... oh wait, Duke needed a bucket with 12 seconds to go to preserve a win over BELMONT. Is anyone really convinced the Charmin-soft Dookies get by West Virginia this afternoon? Miami looked good, but stands little chance against a much better Texas squad and Clemson looked offensively inept losing a 16 point lead to Villanova. Any lingering doubts as to whether the RPI had a clue after ranking the ACC as the NUMBER ONE conference in the nation have been squarely put to bed!

Atlantic 10: D

Xavier won in a game that took more effort than a traditional 3-14 match-up. Temple and St. Joe's had their doors blown off by good, not great, teams in Michigan St and Oklahoma. For a league that was flirting with 5 bids to the dance as recently as four weeks ago, an extremely underwhelming effort to gain national respect.

Tournament Day One Musings

Day One - Finally, some Madness

• I know Belmont played a great game and gave it a good run... but why is no one mentioning how ludicrous that inbounds play was?? Who draws up a backdoor alley-oop when you are smaller, slower and weaker at every position on the floor? I'd much rather see a double screen for a nice 18 footer off the elbow, but that's just me...
  

• Anyone catch Arizona v WVU? Arizona gets my vote for most disappointing team in 2008. Chase Buddinger is the next Josh McRoberts. Every time he takes the floor, his draft stock drops further. This guy was a projected lottery pick??

• Kansas State is legit. Looking WAY to far down the brackets, interesting possibility looming for Beasley, Walker and company. Manhattan? Check. Lawrence? Not Quite. Africa? Doesn't look like that one will make the schedule, BUT Beasley could get a chance to tackle the 'Hawks to punch a dance ticket to the Final Four.

• Duke is in real trouble. West Virginia by 12 on Saturday.

• How about the Big East? 4-0 yesterday, with Louisville, Georgetown and UCONN prohibitive favorites today. If Villanova can "upset" Clemson, it will be a perfect 8-0 for the BIG East.
  

• Meanwhile the Pac-10 looked a little lackluster. For a conference supposedly as deep and balanced as any in the nation, evenly slotted teams in Kansas St and West Virginia make the Pac-10 look a little pedestrian.

• When in doubt? Put your money on the team with the BEST PLAYER on the floor. With only 1 exception (Kentucky, Joe Crawford) the team with the best player on the floor won. Michael Beasley, Luke Harangody, Joe Alexander, etc.

• This bodes well for team today like: Western Kentucky (Courtney Lee), Villanova (Scottie Reynolds), and Butler (Mike Brown). Enjoy a great Day Two!

Belmont - So Close...

Phhhhheeeeewwwwww....

That is the collective sigh of relief you just felt blowing from Durham, North Carolina. The Belmont Bruins had two chances to pull off what might have ranked as one of the two or three top upsets in the history of the NCAA Tournament but fell....just....short.

A gritty, gutsy performance by the Belmont Bruins, a small private school located in Tennessee had the capacity crowd behind them (not to mention hopefull fans of West Virginia and Arizona) but in the end were defeated by one point.


The expression on Coach K's face said it all; that "just sucked on a lemon" pucker bore the signs of someone who knew they were lucky to survive...but may not be so lucky on Saturday.

My prediction: Arizona over Duke by 8 on Saturday.

Above Average Joe

Joe. I'm Sorry.

For the past two years, as a long-time Wildcat fan, I decried the downfall of Kentucky basketball and associated it to one defining moment. The ill-fated signing of Joe Crawford. Mind you, it was nothing personal, just a perfect, shining example of all the unfulfilled promise of the program, and ultimately the impetus behind Tubby's ouster. Minnesota, are you enjoying Tubby? Thank Joe Crawford.

Not that it was ALL Tubby's fault for signing him. Nearly everyone agreed the 6'5'' swingman was a future star, NBA-bound. Check Rivals.com for proof. It was because of that promise that Tubby used his three scholarships on Rajon Rondo (about to compete for an NBA Title), Randolph Morris, (he's smarter than you think, he'll be happy to fax you some test scores...) and the aforementioned Crawford. Just missing the cut, reigning Mr. Basketball in the state of Kentucky, the crestfallen Chris Lofton.

Chris Lofton... the missing link to Kentucky's significant shooting woes... oh what could have been... if only not for Joe Crawford....

Joe. I'm sorry. Sincerely, I should have never doubted you. Sure, it took a little longer to get there, but anyone who watched Kentucky catch fire and run through the SEC knows that success was due in large part to Crawford's ability to score and create offense for the oft-offensively inept Wildcats.

Joe's 35 points today in a tough tourney loss were spectacular. For 40 minutes he showed all the scoring ability and promise of four years ago. Joe. Again, I'm sorry. Just wish I could have told you sooner.

The X-Men

Hanging in the Balance

Xavier's gutty comeback win over the Cinderella UGA Bulldogs illustrated their greatest strength, an incredibly balanced offensive attack and tenacious man-to-man defense. However, as the tourney progresses, might that balance also prove their downfall?

The Muskies lack a traditional "go-to" guy, someone who can create a shot at will and get a big bucket. Drew Lavender seems to be the default go-to in big situations, delivering frequently with beautiful tear-drops in the lane. However, against a team with longer (shot out to Jay Bilas) more athletic guards with the quickness to stay in front of Lavender, the 5'7'' PG might find difficulty getting that shot off.

In the meantime, a nice gut-check win over a dangerous Georgia ballclub. Survive and Advance. Survive and Advance. Xavier awaits the winner of Purdue and Baylor later this afternoon.

Biggest Bracket Blunders

Biggest Bracket Blunders:

It’s the time of year again when all us hardcore fans are subjected to the unmerciful taunting of the jackass in the adjacent cubicle who hasn’t watched a game all year and just picked based on mascots, and is still a few points up in the pool. It is as unavoidable as a senator getting caught with a hooker (guys – you are rich, powerful, there are a LOT of people who want to see you caught with a hooker!).

So here a few sure-fire blunders to avoid when filling in your brackets this year.

1. Searching for the “Next George Mason”

Look, I get it. Us hardcore junkies would rather come in last that pick the standard 1-1-1-2 Final Four (gotta throw in that one 2 seed to be “edgy”). The simple fact is, the reason the expression came to pass in the first place is that is ALMOST NEVER happens. There are always upsets, but only once in the since 1992 has a non-major conference team advanced to the Final Four. That would be 1 of 64 teams, or about 1.6%.

You could be the one to nail it, but odds are keeping closer to reality is the way to go. If you want to be “edgy” and out there, grab a 4 or 5 seed with a solid nucleus, good coach and solid backcourt play, tough defense and a guy who can score the basketball (see: Vandy, Wisconsin, Pitt)

2. George Mason is NOT the “Next George Mason”

It just isn’t happening this year guys. You aren’t the clever one picking the upset, buck the trend and take the Irish. They are good. Actually the fit the formula from above to the T….hmmm

I know – you wanna take the “shocking” 5-12 upset… just take the Irish.

Speaking of the shocking 5-12 upset…

3. The 5-12 Game is Closer to a Pick-Em Than You Think!

The reason there are so many upsets in the 5-12 game, is because they aren’t really upsets. The true underdogs don’t come into play until the 13 seeds when the at-large teams are exhausted. In your average 5-12 game you are taking a team around 20 in the RPI and pitting them against a team somewhere in the mid-thirties. Add in the fact that the game is on a neutral floor, with tourney one-and-done pressure, and it is a much closer than the 5-12 would indicate… and anything can happen.

4. But Rarely to the True Big Guys


Looking at some of the classic true upsets in the opening round over the past ten years, you will notice an interesting trend. Nearly every one of them was a team that was experiencing a better than expected year, and few had a household-name bonafide star.

Cases in point:

1998: Brice Drew & Valpo in a stunner. The shot sent 4 seed Mississippi home. Major conference, not a perennial power. There are more…

2006: (14) Northwester State over Iowa
2001: Hampton (15) over Iowa St.
2002: UNC Wilmington (13) over USC
2003: Tulsa (13) over Dayton

Name me one player on any of those teams off the top of your head (no – that wasn’t the ISU team with Fizer and Tinsley). Tough to do right? Because big-name programs with big-name stars are rarely the victims…

Except for Kansas…
2005: Bucknell (14) over Kansas
2006: Bradley (13) over Kansas

So – Who are the most likely to fall victim this year? Washington St & Xavier (a tough 14-draw in SEC Champ Georgia) better watch out. However, both dodge the traditional profile, as both played multiple games in last year’s tourney, and return 3 or 4 starters.

Players to Keep an Eye On

Ten to Watch:

There is a good chance you are already on a first name basis with some of the most acclaimed stars in the country: Tyler Hansbrough & Ty Lawson, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love & Darren Collinson, Chris Lofton, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, DJ Augustine, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose and Chris Douglass-Roberts . New stars have emerged into the spotlight over the past few weeks as the media has fallen in love with players like Aaron Harangody of Notre Dame and Adam Emenecker of Drake (really, really great story, by the way: you can read more at: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/champweek2008/columns/story?columnist=rittenberg_adam&id=3285253

However March is the time when stars are born, often beyond some of the usual suspects. Here are ten to keep an eye on as March Madness unfolds.


1. David Padgett (Lousivlle, senior C) – Perhaps no single player means more to their team than Padgett. The 6-11 super senior (on an extra year of eligibility because of injury plagued seasons) is the general on the floor for the Louisville Cardinals. While his stats are not stellar, his impact on the floor is immense. His deft passing, fierce competitiveness and soft shooting touch make defenses sag of do-everything swing man Terrance Williams, however it is his leadership that truly make him special. Simply watch the way he takes oft-troubled sophomore power forward Derrick Caracter under his wing on each timeout, and the way his teammates look to him in big moments and you can see the potential of this club to still be playing in April.

2. Shan Foster (Vanderbilt, senior SF) – Shan Foster cemented his legacy at Vanderbilt and his status as conference player of the year over the more heralded Chris Lofton with an absolutely amazing performance 3 weeks ago in which he hit NINE consecutive 3’s – all after the 10:00 mark in the 2nd half, including the game winner in overtime. This athletic assassin, teamed with freshman big man AJ Ogilvy, makes Vanderbilt a true contender, and a dangerous foe for the Jayhawks should they meet in the Sweet 16.

3. Stephen Curry (Davidson, soph SG) – If you haven’t had a chance to see the sharp-shooting son of former NBA’er Dell Curry play yet, you are in for a true treat. Averaging over 25 ppg, Curry has the ability to get hot, create his own shots, and shoot Davidson right into a Sweet 16 game. Early season tests from Duke, UCLA and UNC have Stephen and his Davison club well prepped for tourney action.

4. Mike Green (Butler, Sr. SG) – This season Green only led his team in scoring, rebounding, assists, and the weight room. OK, I made the last one up, but have you seen some of the guys running around for Butler? Green and Graves make up one of the best backcourts, not just in a mid-major conference but in the entire country. In a tourney where guard play is at a premium, those two make Butler a force to contend with.

5. Drew Neitzel (Mich St. Sr. PG) – It has been a bit of a roller coaster season for Neitzel and the Spartans, but Tom Izzo always seems to have his squad ready for March, and with the sharp-shooting and gritty senior leadership of Neitzel, 2008 could prove no exception.

6. Trent Plaisted (BYU, So. PF) – The 6’11’’ Senior averaged more than 15 points and 7.5 rebounds all season and gives the Cougars a legit post prescence, something that is lacking for most teams in the tourney. BYU will go as far as Plaisted takes them

7. Drew Lavender (Xavier, Sr. PG) – As Lavender goes, so go the Muskies. Leading a team with six players averaging double figures, and NONE more than 13.5ppg does not happen by accident. It takes great balance, and more importantly a great floor general to make it work. The 5’7’’ Lavender is the engine that makes the balanced Musketeers attack go. The health of Lavender and his injured ankle will go a long way in determining how long X is dancing.

8. Jarryd Bayless (Arizona, Fr. PG) – All the attention heading into the opening round game has been focused on West Virginia’s Joe , but the game hinges much more squarely on Bayless’s shoulders. The freshman sensation missed time during the season (partially to blame for Arizona’s double-digit losses) but when healthy is on the same plane as Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose. He’s that good. If the ‘Cats can claw past the Mountaineers, he and Chase Buddinger present real match-up problems for the Dookies.

9. Courtney Lee (W. Kentucky, Sr. SG) – If you are a regular reader, Lee is no surprise to you, but to the casual basketball fan his inclusion might be as puzzling as the red thingy that is his school’s mascot (it’s a Hilltopper… no clue either). This sure-fire NBA first rounder makes WKU one of those pesky 12 seed matchups.

10. LaVance Fields (Pitt, SG) – How is this for numbers to chew on; Pitt is 17-1 with Fields in the line-up. He will be in the line-up come tourney time, fresh off a Big East title in which they toppled 4 teams in 4 days, including trendy Final 4 pick Georgetown.


More special players to watch: DJ White (Indiana, Sr. PF), DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M, Fr. C), Stanley Burrell (Xavier, Sr. SG), Pat Calathes (St. Joe’s, Sr. SF), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova, Jr. SG), Brian Butch (Wisconsin, Sr. PF), Bill Walker (Kansas St., So. SG), Dominique James (Marquette, Jr. PG), Joe Crawford (Kentucky, Sr. SF), Hasheem Thabeet (UCONN, So. C), AJ Graves (Butler, Sr. SG), Joe Alexander (SF WVU), AJ Abrahams (Texas, Jr. SG), Kyle Singler & DeMarcus Nelson (Duke, Fr. & Sr. – SGs)

Punative Damages? Don't Call Us...We'll Call You

Punitive Damages? Don’t Call Us…We’ll Call You

Let me give you a quick profile of an at-large NCAA Tournament team. 25-7 overall. 8-4 in their last twelve games. A second place finish in one of the BCS power conferences. Wins over Kentucky, Michigan St., Ohio St twice. 5 of 7 losses quality losses against Top 25 teams, and an RPI of 23.

Where would you seed them? 5? Maybe a 6? In the case of the 25-7 Indiana Hoosiers, try an EIGHT slotted against North Carolina for a second round match-up in Chapel Hill…er, Raleigh.

Should Indiana be punished for Sampson’s transgressions? Absolutely. Particularly in light of the fact that it is the exact same transgression that followed him prior to being hired by IU. As Terrell Owens would say, “if it walks like a duck…” The school knowingly took a risk in hiring Sampson (why would be a whole separate article for a later day – it isn’t like you were getting Dean Smith reincarnated). My problem lies in the fact that the kids are the ones taking the hit here. Not IU, and not Kelvin Sampson (yes he got fired, but rumor has it he is going to be the bench coach for Jim Harrick in the NBADL. Even Dave Bliss thinks that is a great idea).

The people punished are DJ White, Eric Gordon, and the rest of the current Hoosiers who did nothing wrong. The text overage charges they incurredalone should be punishment enough! A sure-fire 5-6 seed drops like a stone to an 8, a near certain 2^nd round early exit and in a few years Sampson will crop up again and coach at a program completely sanction-free. I imagine the partisan crowd in Raleigh on Sunday will not be the least bit disturbed, but to me it seems a lousy end to a promising season.

Let the Whining Commence!

The Field of 64…er, 65

The field is set, so let the crying begin. It is actually a little quiet this March as Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orangeman fell one win short of being a viable enough bubble-candidate to whine and politic on ESPN all afternoon. The best substitute this season was Va Tech’s Seth Greenberg, who took the high road verbally, but let the frustration and sarcasm drip from each repeated compliment to “the difficult job the committee is faced with.”

For all Bubble-Whiners, here are the facts for those “excluded”

• Virginia Tech – Yes, they looked impressive in their last-second loss to North Carolina, but last time I checked almost wins did not count. AND if they did, would anyone begrudge Villanova’s last at-large selection?? At least Hansbrough beat Tech, rather than the officials calling a phantom bump 74 feet from the basket in a non-shooting play with 0.1 seconds in the game to criminally alter the game! (No word if the same crew got to do the UCLA –Cal game last week) At the end of the day, with a 1-7 mark against the RPI Top 50, and no non-conference wins to speak of, they landed where they belonged; kNITing a nice sweater for next season.

• Dayton – Give me a break. A losing record in a good, but non-BCS league in the A-10; a stumbling 6-6 finish to the season after getting healthy and an early quarterfinal loss in conference tourney, dropping them to 0-3 against A-10 measuring stick Xavier. Someone please explain to me how this team is 50 slots higher in the RPI than the Sun Devils?

• Florida – It’s STILL great – to be – a Flor-ida Gator, but it will be even better in 08-09. Not many schools that lose their best 6 players, all of whom now get paychecks to play basketball, would even have lingered in the bubble mix this long. Respect to Billy D and the baby Gators.

• Ohio State – A nice push late to get big wins over slumping Purdue and Michigan State, but the swoons of both Florida and Syracuse robbed the Buckeyes of two valuable non-conference banner wins. In the end, they were left with just a 3-10 mark against the tourney field (one of those wins being over UMBC) and not enough juice to topple a weak, but full bubble.

• Mississippi – Another prime example of the flawed RPI. This is a team that finished 7-10 in a down SEC, the soft SEC West to boot. The fact that Joe Lunardi had them on the same bubble as Kentucky for the last three weeks is just yet another reason to want to gouge his eyes out.
  
  
• Arizona State – Yes. They beat Arizona twice. Yes, the beat Xavier in December impressively. Yes, they beat Stanford. Yes, they beat USC… wait, actually Arizona State got screwed. Forget what the RPI says, it is obviously a flawed system. With a .500 record in arguably the deepest and strongest conference in the nation and five marquee wins, Arizona State has a legitimate gripe for inclusion over the likes of South Alabama, Kansas State, and especially Baylor.

For those team IN the field, it appears to be pretty-wide open; with no clear cut favorite. UNC, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis and Texas all appear to have legit title chances, while Stanford, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Tennessee appear to be not too far behind.

Check back tomorrow for 5 Fatal Flaws in Your Bracket Pool!